Category Archives: GOP

Equal Representation and the Supreme Court

Earlier this month, the United States Supreme Court heard arguments in Evanwel vs. AbbottThe issue in this case is how to measure population for the purposes of determining if districts have roughly equal population.  The challengers are asserting that population should be based on voters rather than the total population.  The State of Texas is claiming that each state gets to choose the appropriate measure of population.  This case involves both theoretical discussion of the nature of representation as well as very serious political impact.  The decision could vastly alter the politics of the U.S.

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A Brokered Convention???

At this time of every cycle, the media begins to speculate about the possibility of a brokered convention.   The speculation rarely goes much further than talking head and the blogosphere.  Over the past fifty years, there have only been a handful of  election cycles in which the ultimate result has been in doubt by the end of the primary process.  The last time that a major party took more than one ballot to choose its nominee was the 1952 Democratic Convention.  This time around, however, the leadership of the Republican Party is talking about the possibility of a brokered convention (although only behind closed doors).  What is different with this cycle?

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Post-Thanksgiving Leftovers — Some Musings and Questions and the Republican Presidential Primary

It is that time of year.  When folks have way too much leftover turkey and too many leftover visiting in-laws that seems like it will take forever to get rid of.  Both of which call to mind the Republican presidential candidates — still fourteen strong with two months to go to Iowa.  I have been playing around the last week with the Real Clear Politics tool on the race for delegates on the Republican side.  One big caveat on the tool, it is not too good on the states that allocate congressional district delegates by congressional districts.  In proportional states that allocate by congressional district (thirteen states), it tends to assume that the statewide allocation of congressional district delegates will mirror state-wide results.  It will not.  Depending on the state, either the top three candidates will get approximately one-third each (a close enough fourth placed candidate may steal some delegates on a district-by-district basis) or the top candidate will get approximately two-thirds of the delegates with the second-placed candidate getting one-third.  In winner-take-most states (six states), the tool assumes that the number of districts won will be proportional to the state-wide results.  Again, it will not.  The state-wide winner should win most of the congressional districts (unless there is a good reason to think that the state-wide winner will win their districts by a large margin and narrowly lose a lot of districts).  Having tried to adjust for the individual state rules, I still came to the conclusion that the Republican outcome will depend on the answer to a series of (not-quite twenty) questions.

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Republican Winnowing; Democratic Solidifying

We are coming up on the November debates — the Republicans on Fox Business Channel, the Democrats on CBS.  The sheer size of the Republican field (and the impossibility of being fair to all of the candidates) continues to drive everybody mad.  Arbitrary criteria lead to candidates being shuffled to the “JV” debate or excluded all together; and the shortness of time leads to candidates being upset about not getting a chance to make their points.  On the other hand, with only five candidates originally and three candidates left now, the time issues are not that pressing on the Democratic side.

For the upcoming Republican debates, three candidates have been excluded from the JV debates (Lindsay Graham, George Pataki and Jim Gilmore).  Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, and Rick Santorum will take part in the JV debate.  The main event will feature Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, and Rand Paul.

The number of Republicans running creates a potential paradox in the normal money primary.  At this point in the campaign, trailing candidates routinely find themselves in a catch-22 — they need more funds to become competitive but they need to become competitive to get more funds.  However, putting aside Carson and Trump (as most of the money folks seem to think that both will collapse), several of the candidates can point to a poll showing them within the margin of error of third place in at least one early state.  However, it is highly unlikely that 15 candidates will make it to Iowa.  I would not be surprised if Senator Graham decides that with Rand Paul not being a serious contender that he no longer is needed to assure that the Republican field takes an aggressive stand on foreign policy.  If Gilmore and Pataki were actually running expensive campaigns, I would not be surprised for them to call it a day soon.  Since they aren’t, they might just stick around.  Santorum, Huckabee, and Jindal are all competing for the same slot — currently occupied by Ben Carson.  At some point, the lack of funds will force one or all of them to drop out.  The November JV debate may be the last chance for one of these three to become the alternative to Carson. Continue Reading...

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Weekend Wrapup — October 23rd

Sometimes, a week is a long time in politics.  There are still 53 weeks to go to the 2016 general election, and three months to the Iowa Caucuses, but this week was a big week.  Three candidates out on the Democratic side, a probable new speaker, an old investigative committee, a new investigative committee, and two elections — one in Canada and one in Louisiana.

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A House Divided — The Speakership and The Presidential Race

In most Western democracies, the post of speaker is not considered to be a partisan post.  Instead, the role of speaker is to be a fair and neutral chair.  When a speaker retires, there are typically several candidates from all parties — experienced legislators who typically have served as deputy speakers or chairs of committees from outside the leadership of the parties.  Choosing the new speaker is one of the few votes that does not follow party lines.  In the U.S., however, the Speaker is expected to be a very unfair and partisan chair — the effective leader of his party in the House of Representatives.  As a result, the internal divisions in the Republican Party have risen to the surface, making it difficult to choose a new speaker.

As has been discussed over the years in this blog.  The Republican Party has some significant and fundamental divisions.  On the one side, you have a dwindling number of moderate, so-called “Country Club” Republicans.  While wanting a smaller government and lower taxes than Democrats, these Republicans have always seen the importance of good roads, a solid public education system, and an adequate safety nest.  They are less concerned about social issues, except for desiring minimal disruption from social disorder.

Then you have “Wall Street” Republicans.  This group wants low taxes with tax incentives for businesses.  Again, social issues are less important. Continue Reading...

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Republican Nomination Process — Update

As noted earlier this year, the Republican nomination process is, in some ways, more complex than the Democratic nomination process because the Republican Party gives states more discretion in setting the rules for delegate allocation to candidates.    The Democratic Party  follows relatively uniform rules in which approximately two-thirds of the pledged delegates are proportionately allocated by the results in each Congressional District and one-third of the pledged delegates are proportionately allocated by the results state-wide with a 15% threshold for each.  The complexity on the Democratic side is in figuring out the number of at-large delegates and in each district and working the math on the tipping points for winning a delegate.  On the Republican side, each state has different rules.  Yesterday, the Republican National Committee released a summary of the rules adopted by each state.

For the most part, the Republican rules allocate the delegates to the states (each state getting three per congressional district, and ten at-large delegates with states eligible to get additional at-large delegates based on past election results) and to the territories (with the rules designating how many delegates each territory get), but allow the state to award delegates to the candidates as they see fit.   There are two primary limitations on the states.  First, states holding their primaries (or binding caucuses) between March 1 and March 14 must use some form of proportional allocation.  To qualify as proportional, these states may not set the minimum threshold for delegates above 20%, but can set a lower threshold.  Additionally, these states can establish a threshold — no lower than 50% — at which a candidate wins all the delegates.  Second, if a state does have a preference vote (whether in a primary election or as a straw poll at some level of the state’s caucus process), delegates must be awarded based on that preference with one major exception (discussed below).  Unlike in the Democratic party, delegates are not just awarded based on the preference vote, they are bound by the preference vote and may not change their vote at the national convention (unless released by their candidate).

Given the general lack of rules, each state Republican party has a series of choices to make.  First, do you use a caucus/convention system or do you use a primary to allocate delegates?  Second, do you allocate delegates based solely on the state-wide result or do you also allocate based on congressional district results.  Third, if your allocation occurs after March 14, do you use a proportional system or a winner-take-all system?  Fourth, if you use proportional, what is the threshold for a candidate to receive delegates and do you have a threshold at which one candidate takes all of the delegates?  Fifth, if you use a caucus/convention system, do you use a binding preference vote (and if so, when)?  Sixth, if you use a primary, do you elect delegates directly without regard for preference? Continue Reading...

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Polling round-up, 01-15 October, 2015 (1st half of October, 2015)

So, the polling round-up for the second half of September 2015 is now completed and the books have been closed on this two-week window, mostly concerning 2016. Here the links to my politics blog for the next two weeks of polling from 01-15.10.2015:

Here are the links to my politics blog for the next set of polling that should be coming in over these next two weeks:

Statistikhengst’s ELECTORAL POLITICS – 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 01-15.10.2015: DEM Nomination Continue Reading...

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Boehner to resign in October

House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio), faced with a constant conservative rebellion, told Republicans Friday morning that he will resign at the end of October, according to aides and lawmakers in a closed-door meeting.

The resignation will end a nearly five-year reign as speaker, allowing House Republicans to approve a short-term government funding bill that will avert a shutdown of federal agencies. Boehner’s hold on the speaker’s gavel had grown increasingly unsteady amid threats from more than 30 Republicans that they would force a no-confidence vote in his speaker’s position, which would have forced him to rely on Democratic votes in order to remain in charge. Several GOP members told The Washington Post that Boehner would step down from Congress in late October. – Washington Post

Should be interesting to see if Boehner was the glue holding the Republican party together.

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