Reporters like a good story.  In theory, they like a good story based on facts.  When an event happens, they like to be able to say what it means.  The rules of the nomination process, however, are inconsistent with the way  that reporters normally operate.  Particularly in caucus states, the event that reporters want to treat as the election is merely the first step in the process.  So the reporters make estimates and report those estimates as if they are fact.  In some cases, these estimates are good.  In others, the problem is readily apparent up front.

The problem used to be worse.  In previous cycles, while Republican caucuses reported a presidential preference poll, that preference poll was just a beauty contest and what really mattered was the unstated preferences of the individuals elected as delegates to the next round of the process.  So when the media treated those preference polls as an estimate of the delegates from the state that estimate had nothing to do with reality.  The Republicans have changed the rules for this cycle.  If a state has a preference poll, that poll binds the delegates (with three major exceptions — Pennsylvania, Illinois, and West Virginia — which elect, at least, congressional district delegates directly).   For the three states that directly elect delegates, the reporters are likely to get the story right and look at the pledges of the delegate candidates in Illinois and West Virginia.  They might screw up Pennsylvania in which none of the delegates are technically bound to any candidate (but might do the legwork to find out who the delegates actually support).   (On the Democrat side, the delegates are bound based on the presidential preference vote.)

Some states, however, are not having a preference poll which will make things harder for reporters.  In Colorado (March 1), Wyoming (March 1), Guam (March 12), American Samoa (March 22), North Dakota (April 1), there are no preference polls.   In Colorado and Wyoming, if a delegate candidate declares a preference, that delegate is bound by that preference if elected.   In American Samoa, the convention will choose whether to bind the delegation by resolution.  In North Dakota, the convention can decide on an apportionment formula. Continue Reading...