Category Archives: House of Representatives

Remaining Races and Recounts

By tmess2 | Published November 17, 2024

Votes are still being counted, particularly out west where mail-in ballots are the predominate form of voting.  But we are down to a handful of races that are still too close to call.

There are three things to consider at this point.  The first is how many ballots remain to be processed and where those ballots are.  The second is that Alaska uses ranked-choice voting.  While the U.S. does not have much experience with ranked-choice voting, Australia does.  The Australian experience has taught us is that second and third choices tend to be for the candidate closest to the first choice but there will be some drop off and a minority will go to the “non-similar” candidate.  As such, it is hard for a trailing candidate to close the gap much, and the trailing candidate usually wins only if the original margin is small, there are a significant number of votes for the “also-ran” candidates.  Third, the vote counting machines are very accurate.  There will be some voter errors that are only caught by visual inspection, but recounts rarely change the final count by much.  Closing a 1,000 vote margin in a recount is almost impossible.

Turning to what is still outstanding, depending on the media site that you use, the only outstanding Senate race is Pennsylvania.  The real issue in Pennsylvania is provisional ballots.  The current margin is 18,000.  Senator Bob Casey is receiving about 60% of the vote from provisional ballots so far, and most of the remaining provisional ballots are in areas that favor Senator Casey.  There will be a recount, but, as noted above, it is unlikely that the recount will change the vote total by more than 1,000.  Senator Casey’s chances depend entirely on how many additional provisional ballots are counted. Continue Reading...

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Election Night Preview — Part Six (Post-Midnight Eastern)

By tmess2 | Published November 3, 2024

Prior to Midnight, the polls will have closed in forty-eight states and the District of Columbia.  All that is left to close are Hawaii and Alaska.  Hawaii closes at midnight Eastern (7;00 p.m. local).  Polls close at 8:00 p.m. local time in Alaska.  For most of the state, that is midnight Eastern.  But the Aleutian Islands are in a separate time zone and will close at 1:00 a.m. Eastern.

In Hawaii, the first big chunk of returns will be the early votes, but those are not reported until all polling places have actually closed.  As such, it may be an hour or more before results are released.  The release of results will be a little bit slower than Alaska.

The biggest race out of these two states is the congressional seat for Alaska, currently held by Democrat Mary Peltola.  One factor that will delay a projection in this race is that Alaska uses ranked-choice voting.  The Republicans in Alaska have pretty well demonstrated that they do not know how to run a race with ranked choice voting.  Thus, rather than running two strong candidates and having the candidates encourage their supporters to rank the other candidate second, the Republicans have had their second candidate withdraw.  Not having two candidates attacking Representative Peltola is a strategic mistake.  But because the Republicans have cleared the field, it is unlikely that there will be many votes for the remaining candidates on the ballot.  A good rule of thumb for ranked choice voting is that a candidate who finishes in second on first preferences is unlikely to have a net gain more than 1% for every 2% of the vote that went to the eliminated candidates.  Representative Peltola received a majority of the vote in the primary, but that is now guarantee that she will get a majority of the first preference votes in the general election.  It is entirely possible that we will not know the winner until after all counts are voted and preferences are applied, but the history of ranked choice voting in Australia is that, in most races, there is a clear winner with a sufficiently large margin in first preferences that the second-placed candidate can’t realistically catch-up. Continue Reading...

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Election Night Preview — Part Five — The Local News and the West Coast (11:00 To 11:59 P.M. Eastern)

By tmess2 | Published November 2, 2024

Typically, in the Eastern and Central Time Zones, 11:00 p.m. EDT is when the local affiliates of the “big three” broadcast networks have their local newscasts.  Election night is a little bit different.  Most of the networks give their affiliate a five minute or so slot at the top and/or bottom of the hour to give an update on the local races.  At 11:00 p.m., after doing a quick run down along with any quick projections that can be made, the networks will give an extended break for a short (fifteen minute or so local newscast).

During this hour, we have three states in which the remaining polls close and two states in which the polls close entirely.  But, in talking about the West Coast states, there is a heavy reliance on mail-in vote.  So vote counting in these states takes days.  The partial closings are 8:00 p.m. local (Pacific) time in the majority of Oregon and the northwest part of Idaho and 9:00 p.m. local (Mountain) time in North Dakota.  North Dakota and Idaho are covered in yesterday’s post, but Oregon is covered below.  The two full closings are in California and Washington.

The result in the presidential race is not in doubt in any of the three states closing this hour.  Kamala Harris should sweep all three states.  Given how many electoral votes are available in California, it is almost impossible for Vice-President Harris to be projected as the national winner before 11:00 p.m.  Similarly, if Adam Schiff is not the new Senator from California and Senator Maria Cantwell is not reelected in Washington, we are looking at a red wave that could get Republicans a filibuster proof majority.  In other words, these five contests should be projected for Democrats during the hour.  The races to follow in these states are the House races. Continue Reading...

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The End of Primary Season

By tmess2 | Published August 28, 2024

The U.S. is different from most other democracies in how we run elections.  One major difference is that, in most other countries, the local party committees (with some suggestions from the national party) pick the candidates.  In the U.S. that only happens (and in only in some states) when there is a special election.  Instead, the rule in most states is that candidates for the general election are chosen by partisan primaries.

And because there is no federal law governing the timing of primaries, it is up to the states to decide when they want to hold their primaries.  But, because federal law does set the date of the general election for presidential electors, U.S. Senators, and U.S. Representatives (the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November) and also requires that absentee ballots e mad available by early October to military voters, the latest that a state can hold their primary (and canvass the ballots at the state level) while still having time to print general election ballots is around mid-September.  So, particularly, in a presidential election year, primary season runs from February through September.

We are down now to the last four states to hold primaries.  (Louisiana, technically, does not have a primary.  Instead, they use a semi-nonpartisan general election on which all candidates from all parties appear on the general election ballot with a runoff several weeks later if nobody gets a majority.) Continue Reading...

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August 20 Primaries — Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming

By tmess2 | Published August 17, 2024

As we conclude the August primaries (there are runoffs next week in Oklahoma, but nothing above the state legislative level), the main focus will be on Florida.  Yes there are primaries in Alaska and Wyoming, but they will have little impact on November.

In Alaska, the only statewide or Congressional primary is for the one house seat.  However, Alaska uses  a top four primary.  Barring a major upset, the top three are all but set.  Democratic Representative Mary Peltola might lose in November, but she will get well beyond the 20% needed to be assured of a spot in the top four.  The top two Republicans are two-time third-placed candidate Nick Begich and Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom.  It is possible that whomever of these two gets fewer votes might only end up in the mid to high teens.  If there were five strong candidates, that might be fatal to making the top four.  But there aren’t five strong candidates and a number in the mid-teens will probably be good enough for a top four finish.  Beyond those three, nobody has raised significant funds.  Somebody will do good enough to finish four and make the general, and that somebody might get some funds to run a general election campaign.  But that candidate is unlikely to get enough votes in November to avoid being the first candidate out in ranked-choice voting.

In Wyoming, there will be primaries on the Republican side for both the Senate and the House.  One of the two challengers in the Senate has raised a significant amount of money, but there is no indication that there is significant grassroots opposition to either incumbent.  My expectation is that both incumbents will have comfortable wins on Tuesday. Continue Reading...

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August 13 Primaries — Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, Wisconsin

By tmess2 | Published August 11, 2024

As we are nearing the mid-way point of the summer primaries, there are four states with primaries during this upcoming week — Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin.  However, compared to some previous weeks, this week should be relatively low on drama.

Connecticut is one of those states that uses party conventions as a screening tool for the primary.   There are two ways to get on the primary ballot — getting enough votes at the party convention or getting enough signatures on a petition.  There are only two primaries on the ballot (at least above the state legislative level), both on the Republican side — one for U.S. Senate and one for the Fourth District.  However, neither of the Republican candidates for Senate are funded at anywhere near the level that would make them a viable general election candidate.  While the two candidates in the Fourth have some money, the Fourth District is solidly Democratic.  In other words, neither or these primaries will make much difference in November.

Minnesota has some primaries that might be significant. Continue Reading...

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Primary Elections — Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Washington, Hawaii

By tmess2 | Published August 4, 2024

Another week, another set of primaries.  While the national media is focused on who will be the next Vice-President of the United States,  the results of these elections will determine what seats might be competitive in November, and, in some cases, the winner is all but certain to be holding office in January.  On Tuesday, there will be primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington.  On Saturday, there will be primaries in Hawaii.

In Kansas, Republican engaged in extreme gerrymandering.  The Republicans’ problem in drawing lines is that half of the state’s population is in a handful of counties in Eastern Kansas covering the western suburbs of Kansas City, the state capitol in Topeka, and the University of Kansas in Lawrence.  While not deep blue, this area is definitely bluer than the rest of the state.  Under the pre-2020 lines, the Second District was a lean Republican district and the Third District was a swing district with a slight edge for the Democrats.  To try to “fix” this, the Republicans in Kansas drew some weird lines to make the First District (western Kansas) and the Second District (Topeka and Lawrence) into a weird interlocking jigsaw puzzle which allowed moving some blue areas out of the Third District (K.C. suburbs) into the Second District while adding enough red areas into the Second District to make it redder. The impact was to make the Second District relatively safe while keeping the Third District competitive but slightly favorable to the Republicans.

During the past several cycles, the Second District has been something of a revolving door.  The candidate elected in 2018 was scandal plagued and lost the primary in 2020.  The candidate who won in 2020 got tired of the shenanigans in Washington after a mere four years and opted against seeking a third term. As a result, there are five candidates seeking the Republican nomination, three of whom are roughly equal in fundraising.  The two leading candidates appear to be Jeff Kahrs who serves on the staff of the current representative and appears to have the endorsement of what passes for the Republican establishment in Kansas and former state Attorney General and failed gubernatorial candidate Derek Schmidt who has the support of the Trump wing of the Kansas party. Continue Reading...

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Arizona and Tennessee Primaries

By tmess2 | Published July 27, 2024

After several weeks with no voting (other than a special election in New Jersey and some elections overseas), the primary season starts back up again on Tuesday with the Arizona primary followed by Tennessee on Thursday.

In Arizona, the key race is the Republican Primary featuring 100% insane Kari Lake against 90% insane Mark Lamb.  Despite the fact that Kari Lake has more that won out her welcome with swing voters, the Republican “establishment” seems to have unified behind her.  It’s been some time since there have been polls released in the race.  The last polls had Ms. Lake just short of 50% with a third candidate also on the race.  There were still enough undecideds that Sheriff Lamb could eek out the win, but most likely Ms. Lake will be the nominee.  And that is good news for the Democrats as Ms. Lake will spend half her time whining about how the 2022 governor’s race was “stolen” and how McCain Republicans are RINOs who need to get out of the party.  Those two tendencies will hurt both her and Donald Trump (who has the same tendencies except for substituting 2020 for 2022).

Moving to the Congressional elections, the First District (the northeastern suburbs of Phoenix is a swing district.  The incumbent Republican has token opposition, but the Democratic primary has six candidates, five of whom have raised over $1 million for the primary.  Not surprisingly, the latest polling shows nobody over 20% with one-third of the voters still undecided.  Basically, anybody could win the primary. Continue Reading...

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Late Spring Primaries — June 11 and June 18.

By tmess2 | Published June 9, 2024

Yesterday marked the last presidential primary contests (in Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands).  While some states have a unified primary (presidential and state/congressional), others do not.  while a significant number of the spring state/congressional primaries are part of a unified primary, there are some states that have a separate spring state/congressional primary.  Ten states are having state or congressional primaries over the next three weeks.  After June 25, there will be a month-break with the rest of the primaries taking place in August and September.    Additionally, there will be a special election in Ohio.  A big theme of these primaries will be what happens to some Republican agents of chaos.

Starting with the elections on June 11, first up is Maine.  Both congressional districts are currently held by Democrats.  In both districts, there is a Republican primary.  The first district leans Democratic and the second district leans Republican.   Thus, it is not a surprise that there is a little more money in the Republican primary in the second district.  Both of the Republican candidates in the second district are state representatives.

Unlike Maine, things are a little more chaotic in Nevada.  The Republicans have ten candidates running for U.S. Senate for the right to challenge Jacky Rosen.  The top two fundraiser on the Republican side are Sam Brown (the preferred candidate of the national party) and Jeff Gunter who has gotten significant support from the Freedom Caucus.  Depending on which poll you trust, either Sam Brown has a comfortable lead or it is a dead heat.  At the house level, all three of the Democratic seats are lean Democratic seats, and you have multiple candidates running for the Republican nomination in all three (three in the fourth district, six in the first district, and seven in the third district). Continue Reading...

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2024 Primaries — Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, and Oregon (and California Special Election)

By tmess2 | Published May 19, 2024

This week several states have primaries, but it is unlikely that many of them will be significant.  In addition, we have the runoff in California for Kevin McCarthy’s old seat.

Starting with the special election in California.  Under the top two system in California, the Republicans got both slots in the runoff.  So when the results are finally certified in June, the Republicans will go back up to 218 seats.  The only issue is which Republican gets the slot — McCarthy’s handpicked successor (Vince Fong) or County Sheriff Michael Boudreaux.  This is likely to be a low turnout election which means that anything could happen.  The same two candidates have made the general election in November which will have much higher turnout, but the winner on Tuesday will have a major advantage for the November election.

Georgia had to redraw districts to comply with the Voting Rights Act, but Republicans in the legislature solved that issue by simply redrawing the map so that the Democratic district was majority-minority and making the Republican district whiter (with the numbers flipped).  Thus, the end result in Georgia is likely to be the same.  For the most part, incumbents are likely to prevail, but some incumbents ended up with significantly altered districts.  Additionally, the Third District is an open seat.  Starting with the Third District, this rural district in western Georgia will almost certainly go Republican in November.  There are five candidates running.  The most likely outcome on Tuesday will be a runoff.  The top three candidates in fundraising are Mike Crane, Michael Dugan, and Brian Jack, and it is likely that two of the three will make the runoff.  The other race of interest is the Sixth District.  This race is the one most likely impacted by the redrawing of the lines.  Representative Lucy McBath currently represents the Seventh District.  That district was chopped up to avoid the Democrats gaining a seat in redistricting, and Representative McBath is now running in the Sixth District.  As best as I can tell, there is no overlap between the new Sixth and the old Seventh.  While Representative McBath will be favored in this race, there is a chance of an upset.  Unfortunately, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene did not draw any primary opponents and thus is likely to be back for another term. Continue Reading...

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