Category Archives: House of Representatives

Redistricting — Ohio

By tmess2 | Published July 18, 2021

Like Pennsylvania, Ohio is  a midwestern state that has lost a seat in the House and has an open Senate seat.  There are two key differences.  First, in Ohio, the governor is also a Republican.  Ohio voters have adopted some checks on the majority party ability to redistrict at will, but the majority can force through a map that will last for two cycles without any minority support.  Second, Democratic Representative Tim Ryan has already announced that he will be running for Senate.  While that allows the legislature to keep the remaining incumbents in separate districts, it does not mean that changing the maps in a way that keeps incumbents separate will be easy as incumbents do not always live in the center of their district.

Already, Ohio is a very gerrymandered state with some very weird map shapes.  As with the other states that lost a seat, most of the existing districts are short on voters with two exceptions — the Third District (Columbus) and the Twelfth District (the area to the north and east of Columbus in central Ohio).  Other than the Fifteenth District (the area to the south of Columbus) which is only 15,000 people short, the remaining thirteen districts are between 30,000 and 90,000 people short.  In particular, the five districts that adjoin the current Thirteenth District are a combined 330,000 short.  But as the current Thirteenth has just approximately 707,000 people, that will be around 370,000 people that those districts will have to kick to the rest of the state.  More significantly,  as in the rest of the state, the lines were carefully drawn to pack as many Democrats into the Democratic districts as possible.  The Eleventh District which stretches from Cleveland to Akron is carefully drawn so that the Democrat expected votes are around 80%.  While it borders the Thirteenth District, it can’t move too far east into the current Thirteenth without needing to shed Democratic voters into the Republican districts to the west.  And the Fourteenth District (northeastern Ohio) is a lean Republican district that really can’t afford to give Republicans to the Eleventh District or take in the Democrats around Akron, Ravenna, or Youngstown.  In short, once again, the Republicans are going to be very carefully looking precinct by precinct as they carve up the Thirteenth District and make the necessary shifts of the districts toward the eastern part of the state.

Trying to draw a more favorable map for Democrats, I began by doing two things:  First, there are three counties that are large enough to fully contain a district — Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Hamilton County (Cincinnati), and Franklin County (Columbus).  In the current map, only Franklin contain fully contains a district (Third District).  So I kept Cincinnati intact (which would force the two Republican representatives from the First and Second District into a primary) and drew a map that had eastern and central Hamilton County around Cincinnati in the First District and kept the Eleventh District in Cuyahoga County.  That flipped the First District from a toss-up favoring the Republicans to a lean Democratic District.  It did lower the African-American population in the Eleventh District  Overall, African-Americans are still the largest population group but they are only a plurality and among the voting age population, there are slightly more whites than African-Americans.  African-Americans should still have the majority of votes in the Democratic primary, and the district is solidly Democratic; so African-Americans should be able to elect their preferred candidate.  These shifts force the Second District eastward and northward (taking some area from the Fifteenth District). Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Pennsylvania

By tmess2 | Published July 14, 2021

By the end of the process, redistricting in Pennsylvania may come down to which of two prior district maps is the baseline for the new maps.  Currently, the Republicans control the state legislature while there is a Democratic governor.  While I will leave it to those on the ground in Pennsylvania to discuss what the chances are for a compromise map, if the legislature is unable to pass a map that the governor will sign (as happened in 2018), the responsibility for drawing the new map will fall on the courts.

In drawing new maps, courts tend to use the existing map as a baseline.  Because Pennsylvania is losing a seat, there will need to be significant adjustments, but courts are likely to be somewhat neutral as far as which party benefits from the changes.  But the issue is which map is the starting point.  In 2011, when Republicans controlled everything, they drew a very partisan map.  The Pennsylvania courts struck down those maps on state law grounds in 2018.  The interim maps drawn by the courts are still in effect due to the failure of the legislature to come up with a new map.  Because the 2018 maps are more neutral, Democrats would benefit if the courts start with the 2018 maps.  For this reason, it would make sense for Democrats to file a preemptive case in state court.  Simply put, the state courts are more likely to start with the 2018 maps as the U.S. Supreme Court has held that, in drawing remedial maps, federal courts should start with the last legislatively drawn map and make only the changes needed to remedy the violations.

Besides the general issues of which district(s) will be split in two (or three) to balance out the rest of the state, there are two other matters which could impact the lines.  The first of these matters is the race for the U.S. Senate.  As of now, no member of Congress has entered the race for Senate.  There are a handful of House seats that are, at least on paper, swing seats.  The individuals holding those seats have the decision of whether they want to continue to have to fight every two years to hold those seats or if they want to take the chance at winning the Senate seat.  While a good incumbent can outperform their party in their district, the First, Seventh, Eighth, and Seventeenth are swing seats that slightly favor the Democrats by margins of 2.8% to 6.9% with Democrats currently holding three of the four seats.  Representative Brian Fitzgerald who somehow manages to hold the First District for the Republicans and Representative Matt Cartwright in the Eighth District and Representative Connor Lamb in the Seventeenth District for the Democrats all have to wonder how long their luck will continue to hold in redrawn districts.  And it would be much easier for those drawing the maps if they don’t have to choose which two incumbents to force into the same race. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — New York

By tmess2 | Published July 10, 2021

Politics in New York can be divided into four regions:  Long Island (Nassau County and Suffolk County), New York City, the New York City suburbs (Westchester County, Rockland County, Orange County, and Putnam County), and the rest of the state.  It’s not that the rest of the state is a coherent region.  It’s just that New York City is a barrier between Long island and the rest of the state.  And the southeastern corner of the state is a funnel leading down to New York City.  Once you get north of Orange County and Putnam County, the state quickly widens.

And this geographic reality is reflected in the current maps.  The First District is entirely within Suffolk County at the eastern end of Long Island.  The Second District is contained within Nassau County and Suffolk County.   The Fourth District is entirely within Nassau County.   The Third District spans from Suffolk County to Queens County.  The Fifth District contains parts of Nassau County and Queen County.  The Sixth District, the Seventh District, the Eighth District, the Ninth District, the Tenth District, the Eleventh District, the Twelfth District, the Thirteenth District, the Fourteenth District, and the Fifteenth District are entirely contained within New York City.  The Sixteenth District is partially in New York City and partly in Westchester County.  The Seventeenth District contains part of Westchester County and all of Rockland County.  The Eighteen District contains the rest of Westchester County, Orange County, Putnam County, and part of Duchess County.  The remaining nine districts gradually spread out as you head north and west from the New York City suburbs.  Simply put, there are a lot of very narrow districts in the New York City area leaving little room for the districts north of New York City to reach into New York City to gain Democrats and for the New York City districts to reach north and gain Republicans. This geography is not good for Democrats as New York City is very, very blue.  In essence, the Democrats have self-packed themselves into the New York City districts, and the Republicans only have to do a little bit of cracking in the rest of the state.

Under the current maps, the best districts for Republicans are around 60-40.  Meanwhile, the Democrats hold eight seats in which they are expected to get over 80% of the vote.  That is a lot of wasted votes.  In short, political geography has created a “natural” pro-Republican gerrymander, and the struggle for Democrats is how to undo this gerrymander. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — West Virginia

By tmess2 | Published July 5, 2021

Redistricting in West Virginia will probably be a very simple process.  Currently, all three districts run east to west with the First District being in the northern part of the state, the Second District in the central part of the state, and the Third District being in the southern part of the state.  Even though the Second District has the most population, it will probably be split in two.  The exact lines will probably depend on influence of the current members.  Obviously, both of the incumbents in the First (the most senior member of the delegation) and the Third (the most junior of the delegation) would rather not get the incumbent in the Second as  a primary opponent.  and the incumbent in the Second (which reaches to the northeastern corner) would prefer to split West Virginia into an eastern district and a western district which would leave him alone in the eastern district and put the two other representatives into the western district.  All three representatives live on the edge of the state (First in the northwest, Second in the northeast, and Third in the southwest) so it is not that hard to draw the lines in a way that determines which two of the incumbents will have to run against each other.

But at the end of the day, the exact lines will only matter to the people who want to represent West Virginia in Congress.  We are long gone from the days of Robert Byrd when Democrats were a dominant force in West Virginia.  At the present time, there just are not enough Democrats in the state, and they are too scattered around the edges to draw a toss-up district.  Both districts will be around R +20.

When I tried to draw the most favorable map that I could for Democrats in West Virginia, I still ended up with that district being around R+14.  And to get that district that linked all of the Democratic precincts in West Virginia, I basically had to draw a  horseshoe with the Democratic voters packed into the horseshoe and the rest of the state filling in that horseshoe.  In other words, a map that looked awful and still did not give Democrats a competitive district. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Virginia

By tmess2 | Published July 3, 2021

Virginia continues the broken record of this year’s redistricting storyline — growth in urban and suburban areas and shrinking population in the rural areas.  The four districts which have the highest excess population are the four districts (First, Eighth, Tenth, and Eleventh) that contain parts of Loudon County, Fairfax County, and Prince William County in the Washington, D.C. suburbs.  The other two districts with excess population are the districts (Fourth and Seventh) that take in part of the Richmond area.  The other five districts have shortages with the biggest shortage being in the Ninth District in southwestern Virginia.

For this cycle, Virginia has opted to use a hybird commission (part legislative members and part citizen members) to draft plans which will then go to an up-down vote by the legislature.  If this process fails, the courts will draw the lines.  Because of the change in the process, it is unclear whether the results will be based on the old map or if the commission will draw the maps from scratch.  For now, I am assuming the the current maps will be the starting point.  The criteria encourages that the lines respect communities of interest, but do not require that the lines follow existing political subdivisions.  In terms of the Voting Rights Act, the Third District (part of southeastern Virginia near Norfolk) and the Fourth District (southeastern Virginia and Richmond) are half-white/half-African American districts and the Eighth District (Arlington and Alexandria) and the Eleventh District (central Fairfax County and eastern Prince William County) are minority-majority (although just barely) districts with no dominant minority group.

I started in the southwest as the Ninth has the biggest shortfall.  I gave the Ninth District the rest of Henry County (currently split with the Fifth District) and more of Roanoake County (currently split with the Sixth District).   To make up for its losses (and its own shortfall) the Fifth District (a large blob that essentially splits the state from the southern border up to the D.C. suburbs) gains Amelia County and Greenville County.  The Second District (eastern Virginia) gains part of Chesapeake County (from the Fourth District) as does the Third District.  The Fifth District will probably gain some from the Fourth District in its southern part along the border as well as chunks from the Seventh District.  (I am seeing Greenville County, Nodaway County, and Amelia County going to the Fifth District along with additional parts of Fauquier County.)  The Fourth District would gain additional parts of Chesterfield County to make up for its losses.   To make up for its losses, the Sixth District will gain Frederick County and part of Winchester County from the Tenth District.  The Seventh District will gain territory in Farquier County and Prince William County from the First District to make up for the loss which in turn will gain other parts of Prince William County from the Eleventh District.  And finally, the Eighth and Eleventh will shift slightly to the north and west in Fairfax County. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Washington

By tmess2 | Published June 29, 2021

Like New Jersey, Washington uses a bipartisan commission to draw its lines.  Unlike New Jersey, the rules for Washington provide that, to the extent possible, the lines should respect geographical boundaries and the boundaries of political subdivisions.  Additionally, the lines are required to be fair and promote competitive districts.

And in a pattern that we have seen in other states, the districts in the major metropolitan areas now have excess voters and the more rural districts are now short voters.  And in Washington, that could hurt the Republicans.  The three districts currently held by Republicans (Third District in southwest Washington, Fourth District in central Washington, and Fifth District in eastern Washington) are a combined 50,000 people short.  The Sixth District in northwestern Washington is another 32,000 people short.  Meanwhile, the most Democratic district in the state (Seventh District — Seattle) has around 40,000 excess population and the First District (north central Washington) and Eighth District (eastern King County and central Washington) have a combined 25,000 excess population.  The only district that is close to being a majority minority district is the Ninth District (part of Seattle and its eastern suburbs).

There are some maneuvers that could reduce the number of split counties.  For example, King County is large enough to contain two whole districts with some left over.  Thus, I moved the part of the Seventh District in Snomish County to the Second District.  And I exchanged some precincts in Snomish County from the First District to the Second District while giving the part of the Second District in Whatcom County to the First District.  Likewise, I gave all of the Tenth District precincts in Mason County to the Sixth (which also has to expand into Thurston County and additional Thurston County precincts to the Third District.  To bring the Fifth up to quota, I gave all of the precincts in Walla Walla County to the Fifth District along with the Eastern half of Okanogan County.  That, in turn, required the Fourth District to expand westward in Whatcom County.  An argument can be made for rearranging the Fourth and Fifth Districts to give the southeastern part of the state to the Fourth District and leaving the Fifth District to the northeastern part of the state. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — New Jersey

By tmess2 | Published June 26, 2021

In the Garden State, redistricting is done by a bipartisan commission.  If the commission fails to pass a plan, it then falls to the courts.  As such, the current map is the likely starting point for any new map.

Currently, the Democrats hold ten of the twelve seats, but the map actually creates six Democratic districts, one Republican district, and five toss-up districts.  At the present time, the overpopulated part of the state is the three districts that contain Newark and the suburbs of New York
City (the Eighth District, the Ninth District, and the Tenth District).  the other district that is significantly overpopulated is the Twelfth District in the western part of the state around Princeton.  All four of these districts are solidly Democratic.  The two most underpopulated parts of the state are the two districts in the southern part of the state — the First (the southwest part of the state around Camden) and the Second (the rest of the south New Jersey).  Given the population pattern in the state, all of the lines in the state are going to shift toward New York City.

As in other urbanized states, the Voting Rights Act will be some consideration.  There are five minority-majority districts (Sixth, Eight, Ninth, Tenth, and Twelfth) with Hispanics being the largest group in two districts (the Eight — in which they are the majority — and the Ninth) and African Americans being a majority in one district (the Tenth). Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Georgia

By tmess2 | Published June 19, 2021

The Republicans control redistricting in Georgia, but the current map gives them several challenges.  Several suburban districts that leaned Republican in 2011 are now swing districts held by Democrats.  Additionally, the Republican have to be careful to avoid violating the Voting Rights Act.  And, as in other states, there has been a population shift from the rural areas of the state to the metropolitan part of the state, specifically Atlanta and its suburbs.  Based on the 2019 Census estimates, the First District (southeastern Georgia) is around 5,000 people short; the Second District (southwest Georgia) is over 70,000 people short; the Third District (western Georgia) is around 9,000 people short; the Eighth District (southern Georgia) is over 35,000 people short; the Twelfth District (eastern-southeastern Georgia) is around 20,000 people short; and the Fourteenth District (northwestern Georgia) is around 25,000 people short.  Of these districts, one (Second) is safe Democrat and the others are safe to solid Republican.  Having said that, the biggest overages are the Seventh District (northeastern Atlanta suburbs), the Fifth District (Atlanta), and the Eleventh District (northwestern suburbs) — one toss-up district (Seventh), one solid Democratic district (Fifth), and one solid Republican District (Eleventh).

Given that the safest Republican precincts are in districts that are short residents, and the most Democratic precincts are in the overpopulated parts of the other districts, Republicans are going to have to look carefully at how they move the lines.  It is possible, however, to accomplish their main goals which are to regain the Sixth District (currently D+1) and the Seventh District (currently R+2).  On paper this goal can be achieved.  To accomplish this goal, Republicans will have to have adjoining districts trade precincts.  A good example is Gwinnett County where you could some Democratic precincts move to the Tenth District and some Republican precincts move to the Seventh.  For the Sixth District, the changes are much more blunt with the Eleventh District moving into Marietta in Cobb County to make up for the precincts that it will need to shed to the Thirteenth District (to allow the Thirteenth to shed precincts to the Third District).  The real problem, for the Republicans are how much they can trust the numbers.  Atlanta is a prime example of the suburbs changing quickly.  And using anything other than the 2020 results may make these districts look redder than they actually are.  Minimalist changes — combined with the current attempts at voter suppression in Georgia — may allow the Republicans to temporarily win back the Sixth District and the Seventh District, but the current trends will make it hard for the Republicans to keep them.

There are certainly some changes to my first round of maps that the Republicans could make which would involve adding precincts to districts that are already over in population and taking precincts from districts that are under in population (with other precincts moved around to compensate).  The most likely option for this would be for the Ninth District to give up precincts in northern Forsyth County to the Sixth District and the Seventh District.  The Ninth District would then get some additional precincts from the Tenth which would get precincts from the Fourth District and Seventh District in Gwinnett County (the Seventh would get some precincts from the Tenth in Gwinnett County).  Finally, the Fourth District would get precincts from the Sixth District in DeKalb County.  With some aggressive precinct selection, my final maps showed the Sixth and Seventh Districts as approximately R+7. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Missouri

By tmess2 | Published June 14, 2021

The 2011 redistricting in Missouri gave us some very weird maps.  In the Fifth District, we have the “dead lizard” district in which the Republican suburbs of Kansas City in Eastern Jackson County were carved out and moved in with the Sixth District (northern Missouri) which is mostly on the other side of the Missouri River.  Meanwhile, some of the more Democratic suburbs of Kansas City (and the part of Kansas City north of the Missouri River) became the core of the Fifth District as well as what were some Democratic leaning counties east of Kansas City along the Missouri River that had historically been part of the Fourth District (western Missouri).  In the Third District (eastern Missouri), you have the “claw” surrounding the St. Louis area on three sides.  The Second District (suburban St. Louis) took in some of the more conservative suburbs of St. Louis in St. Charles County.  The 2011 maps were the product of a General Assembly in which the Republicans were just shy of a supermajority and needed to get a small number of Democratic votes to overcome the Democratic governor’s veto.

In this next round of redistricting, not a lot has changed in terms of population.  The First District (St. Louis and its inner suburbs) has continued to shrink relative to the rest of the state and will need about 35,000 people.  The Eighth District (southeastern Missouri) will need around 7,000 people.  Meanwhile, the Seventh District (southwestern Missouri including Springfield and Branson) will need to shed around 14,000 people.  There are a lot of split precincts in the current map, so the exact surpluses of the remaining districts (and the exact shortfall in the Eighth) is hard to determine, but everything will need to be shifted somewhat.

What has changed is that there is now a Republican governor.  While the Republicans do not have to make any concessions to Democrats to pass a bill, there will be some restraints caused by the need to comply with the Voting Rights Act.  In other words, the Republicans are unable to carve up the two Democratic districts to get a clean 8-0 sweep of the state.  But they can try to draw lines that improve the chances of keeping a 6-2 majority. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Nevada

By tmess2 | Published June 13, 2021

Over the past decade, Nevada has been a slightly bluish swing state.  Most of the Democratic base is in Clark County (Las Vegas) with an outpost in Washoe County (Reno)  Of course, Clark County represents the majority of the state’s population.  As a result, while state-wide elections are close, Democrats actually have the majority in the state legislature.  And that means that this time around, Democrats will control the redistricting.

Before discussing the possible new lines, it is important to note one potential issue with the numbers that I am using.  Besides the normal caution that, until the 2020 census numbers are released, we are relying on the 2019 population estimates, Nevada has a complicating factor.  In almost every state, prisoners are counted as living in the prison for redistricting purposes.  This gives a little bump to the rural counties that tend to want to have prisons and hurts the urban areas that are the source of many of the prisoners (as crime is associated with population density).   In Nevada, we are talking an approximate prison population of around 10,000 with around half being in rural parts of Clark County and the other half being in other parts oft the state.

While it looks like the population growth was mostly in Clark County, because of the population movement within Clark County, the First District (Las Vegas) actually is projected to have the lowest population of the four districts — needing around 50-51,000 more people.  On the other hand the Third District (southern Clark County) is around 68,000 overpopulated.  Since the Third District is a toss-up district, the goal will be to move some Republicans from the Third to the First. Continue Reading...

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