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Category Archives: House of Representatives
August 4 Primaries — Arizona, Michigan, and Washington
As the calendar flips around to August, we are about to hit a rush of state and congressional primaries. Some states (e.g., California, Texas, Pennsylvania, Illinois) hold their state and congressional primaries on the same day as the presidential primary. Others (e.g., Florida) hold a separate presidential primary with the state and congressional primaries occurring later in the year. And most of the states with separate primaries will hold them between August 1 and mid-September. (In addition, there is the postponed Connecticut primary.)
Earlier this week, I discussed the two states holding primaries on August 4 that I am most familiar with (Kansas and Missouri). (And if I hear another ad attacking a hardcore pro-life Republican for saying something even slightly pro-choice fifteen years ago, I may get physically ill.) The other three states holding primaries on August 4 are Arizona, Michigan, and Washington.
In Arizona, the biggest race is the special election for the remaining two years of the Senator John McCain’s term. Mark Kelly is the only candidate on the ballot on the Democratic side. It is likely that interim Senator Martha McSally will be the Republican nominee. She does, however, have primary opposition. Her opponent has some money, but not really enough to run a successful campaign. So unless there is a lot of silent opposition to her among Arizona Republicans, she should win the primary. (There was one poll that compared Kelly against both McSally and her primary opponent, and the primary opponent did a little bit better but not much better against Kelly.) In 2018, the Democrats won 5 of the 9 congressional seats and none of the races was particularly close. At this point, I am not hearing anything out of Arizona that points to any of the primaries being interesting.
Also posted in Primary Elections, Senate
Tagged Arizona, Brenda Jones, Mark Kelly, Martha McSally, Michigan, primary elections, Rashida Tlaib, Washington
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Bleeding Kansas
In two weeks, Kansas and Missouri will have their state and federal primaries. (There are also primaries in Arizona, Michigan, and Washington.) While on the Missouri side of the state line, the biggest race is actually a ballot issue (Medicare expansion which is expected to pass), Kansas has some major races on the Republican primary ballot.
The big one is the U.S. Senate race. The incumbent Senator — Pat Roberts — is a conservative Republican. However, that is not enough to guarantee a win in the Republican primary, and Senator Roberts had a tough race in 2014 (only getting 48% of the primary vote for an 8% margin). Senator Roberts has decided that forty years in Congress (sixteen in the House and twenty-four in the Senate) is enough and it’s time to enjoy retirement. And eleven Republicans decided that their names would sound so much better with Senator in front of it.
At this point in the race, it appears that there are three major contenders. The establishment choice is very conservative Representative Roger Marshall. Marshall represents the first district of Kansas which covers western and north central Kansas. Meanwhile, the Tea Party candidate is Spawn of Satan Kris Kobach. Folks may remember former Secretary of State Kobach as the Republican who lost the governor’s seat in 2018 or as the author of much of the anti-immigrant legislation passed over the past decade. Finally, there is Bob (Hamilton) the plumber. Hamilton runs a highly successful plumbing company in the Kansas City area and is trying to paint himself as a Trump clone.
Also posted in GOP, Primary Elections, Senate
Tagged Bob Hamilton, Kansas, Kris Kobach, Roger Marshall, Steve Watkins
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The President and Subpoenas
Recently, the United States Supreme Court issued two opinions concerning the ability of different entities to issue subpoenas to a president. As the two cases involved different entities issuing subpoenas, the opinions treated them very differently.
The first case, Vance, involved a state grand jury subpoena. Over the years, the Supreme Court has considered a significant number of cases involving subpoena. Some involved subpoenas issued to private parties. Others considered federal criminal subpoenas issued to the president. The Supreme Court has also considered federal civil cases involving a president. The sum total of these prior cases is that there are rules limiting the issuance of a subpoena. In light of these cases, the Supreme Court decided that there was no blanket exemption that permitted a president to challenge a state grand jury subpoena. Nor is there a significantly different standard when the case involves a president. Instead the ordinary considerations (whether the subpoena is appropriately designed to seek information relevant to the inquiry) usually control. However, while it is not a heightened standard, a court should consider the degree to which the subpoena may interfere with presidential duty in determining whether to grant any relief from the subpoenas. In other words, the State does not need to make a different showing to justify a subpoena to a president than it would to justify a subpoena to an average business, but the president may have unique grounds that he can raise to block the subpoena.
The judge hearing the case seeking to quash the grand jury subpoena has already begun the process for considering any new objections that the president may raise (and the Supreme Court has issued its judgment in that case early). So we may get a final decision soon. However, the material will then be part of the confidential grand jury case. Thus, any financial records will not be public in the near future.
Also posted in Donald Trump, Judicial
Tagged Supreme Court, Trump subpoenas
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Trump, Mueller, and the Supreme Court
Earlier today, the Supreme Court issued an order list covering several cases. For political junkies, the big news from the list concerned Department of [Obstructing] Justice vs. House Committee on the Judiciary. The issue in this case is whether the House can get access to the grand jury proceedings from the Mueller investigation. Technically, the issue is whether the House’s investigation of whether Trump committed potential impeachable offenses is a “judicial proceeding” for the purposes of the Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure’s exception to the general rule of grand jury secrecy.
The big impact of today’s order is that it extends the hold on the release of those proceedings. And, given the other cases already on the docket for the Fall, it is likely that the Supreme Court will not hear arguments on this matter until December. In short, this decision means that those records will not become public until after the election.
Now how this reflects on the Supreme Court depends upon what happens in the election. If Trump loses, arguably, the case would be moot as any opinion would not come until after Trump leaves office and could no longer be impeached. It is possible that the Supreme Court could reach this issue on the theory that, given the time that it takes for the grand jury to investigate followed by the time that it takes for impeachment, the issue is capable of recurring yet escaping review (as the delay all but guarantees that any president’s term will expire before any future case with similar issues could be resolved). This exception to mootness probably better applies to the claim that the House and Senate are no longer conducting impeachment proceedings.
Also posted in Donald Trump, Impeachment, Judicial
Tagged Grand Jury, Impeachment Hearings, Judiciary Committee, Robert Mueller, Russia Investigation
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June 23rd Primaries
There are a number of primaries tomorrow, also some run-off elections and a Special Election. Some of them are Republican only, and I won’t be commenting on them because I honestly don’t care. For example, some Republican is going to win the runoff to get Mark Meadows seat. Whoever wins, he couldn’t be much worse than Meadows, and will lack his seniority. (Thanks, I feel better now.) In the Virginia primary, Mark Warner is running unopposed and will keep his Senate seat in November.
The marquee events tomorrow are the Democratic Senate primary in Kentucky, the Special Election for convict (as of August, delayed due to pandemic) Chris Collins’ seat (NY-27) and some of the New York Democratic Congressional primaries: there are 10 of 12 incumbents seeking re-election who are being challenged.
Let’s start with the NY-27th: in 2018, WHILE UNDER INDICTMENT, Collins won over Nate McMurray, 49.1% to 48.8%. McMurray is running again, against state Sen. Chris Jacobs, who was hand-picked by the state Republican Party. Of note, Jacobs was almost tossed off the ballot for voter fraud, but last Friday night, the county DA decided to let bygones be bygones. If McMurray wins (which every well-regarded pollster and prognosticator says can’t possibly happen) in the reddest district in New York State, that would bide very well for a blue tsunami in November.
Also posted in Elections, Primary Elections, Senate
2 Comments
People I Hate Today
Yeah, I know, “hate” is bad….but it’s that kind of morning.
I’m starting with supposedly Democratic Congressmen Dan Lipinski and Collin Peterson who yesterday joined with the Republicans in sending an Amicus brief to the Supremes asking for Roe v Wade to be rescinded. Our tent is not that big. Legalized abortions don’t cause abortion, just make the abortions that would occur otherwise less likely to kill the woman.
And then there’s Kevin McCarthy, who has been in Congress long enough to know that when the person in the Oval Office is going to start a war, PRIOR to launching a murderous drone attack, the Gang of Eight needs to be notified. And I’m thinking about the US Constitution, Article 1, Section 8, paragraph 11, which gives Congress (and only Congress) the right to declare war. Now, to be honest, it doesn’t directly call out “CAUSING” a war, but I think the implication is inherent.
Also posted in Democrats, Disaster, Donald Trump, National Security, Politics, Rant, Republicans, War
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The Desperation of Elected Republicans
Yesterday saw a couple dozen House Republicans, including their second in command, follow Matt Gaetz (and yes, that’s his mug shot) into the secure SCIF room in violation of all sorts of security protocols.
We can joke around about it, and normally there would be funny things to say, but this is a new low, even for the GOP. SCIFs exist to protect highly classified information, and in general, Republicans know this. But they are so desperate to disrupt the Impeachment Inquiry, that they seemed to have no other choice.
Let’s review: Matt and friends met with the Orange Menace on Monday and he approved this childish prank (albeit with potentially dire results once they brought their potentially compromised cell phones into the SCIF and started filming) because not one of them can answer to the actual facts in the case.
Also posted in Impeachment, National Security, Republicans, Russia
1 Comment
Catching Up with TMess, and a Local Note
I don’t just blog here, I read, too. And over the past few days, TMess has posted some riveting information, and I learned tons! I agree completely with his take on the House (link), and learned about the upcoming international elections (link) which he keeps up with, and the rest of us really should since we’re part of the world. Oh! Canada! Touch blue, make it true (for those of you who remember the 70’s).
But what really fascinated me was his information on the 2020 delegate selection plans. (Link.) The most compelling tidbit related to the changes in how Iowa will calculate its delegates. Far different from how it was through 2016. It will be a real game changer, although the math will be tricky. Remember, folks, that no matter what the national polls say, “All Politics Is Local” and it’s those primaries and caucuses that will lead to the delegate count.
I do, however, take issue with TMess’ numbers. He says that approximately a third of the delegates will be chosen by Super Tuesday. And that’s been true in the past BUT this year is different, as is my math. There are two ways to calculate delegates: one is off the total number of delegates, meaning both pledged delegates and Super Delegates. That number is 4,532. And if that’s how one counts, then “approximately a third” is okay math – the actual number is 35%. HOWEVER, the Super Delegates are not chosen at primaries nor caucuses. They are already delegates. So when you subtract the 764 Super Delegates, math indicated 3,768 pledged delegates, meaning that the actual amount of chosen delegates by Super Tuesday is 42%. Not that much of a difference, but it’s closer to half than a third. Granted, some of the dates might shift, but having both Texas and California as Super Tuesday states is a big deal in terms of pledged delegates allocated. Together, they hold 17% of the pledged delegates.
Also posted in Delegate Count, Delegates, Democratic Party, Elections, Money in Politics, Primary Elections, Superdelegates
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Call the House Back
Since the events of last weekend, a major focus of the press has been whether Moscow Mitch will call the Senate back into session to deal with gun control. After all, there are several bills that the House has passed regarding background checks, etc., that would be useful starting points for Senate debate.
It has become pretty clear that Moscow Mitch intends to stay in his turtle shell and hope that — as in the past — other issues will gain media attention and the focus on Republican inaction on this issue will pass. But there is one thing that Democrats can do to highlight the Senate’s failure and that is for the House to return to Washington to take another look at gun control.
Technically, it’s not necessary because — as discussed above — the House has already done its part. But, unfortunately, the House passed its bills in the ordinary course of business — meaning that the media paid those bills little attention as they were passed. The purpose of recalling the House into session is not a need to pass new bills (although we should do that as well) but to demonstrate that the House is doing the People’s business while the Senate is standing in the doorway and blocking up the halls (with apologies to Bob Dylan).
Also posted in Donald Trump, Senate
Tagged Do Nothing Republicans, Mitch McConnell, Reasonable Gun Control, White Siupremacist Mass Murderers
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The Walk and Chew Gum Agenda
Earlier this week, the petulant child-in-chief stated that Democrats on Capitol Hill can either choose to work on legislative issues or investigate him. As we have gotten used to over the past several years, President Trump simply does not understand the rules for how government works. This latest temper tantrum, however, is a challenge to Democrats on Capitol Hill. It’s important that our leaders show that we can do both and do both in a big way.
Because President Trump can veto any legislation and because Senator Mitch McConnell is best at blocking legislation and lousy at getting anything done, it is unlikely that Democrats can actually get any significant laws passed until after the 2020 election. But Democrats can make a big deal of the House passing a set of laws that will be the core of the legislative agenda in 2021.
On infrastructure, the appropriate committee needs to draft a bill that will make a major down payment on the backlog of crucial infrastructure projects. And then, the Rules committee can set aside a healthy block of time to debate that bill on the floor of the House. During that debate, Democrats from every swing state and swing district can speak about what that bill will mean for their area — the type of speeches which can be blasted on you tube with highlights on the local news. Then Democratic Senators can regularly ask when Mitch McConnell will let that bill come up for a vote in the Senate.
Also posted in Donald Trump
Tagged Donald Trump, Immigration, Infrastructure, Mitch McConnell
Comments Off on The Walk and Chew Gum Agenda