Category Archives: NH Primary

New Hampshire Primary

By tmess2 | Published January 23, 2024

Today is round two for the Republicans with the New Hampshire Primary.  Because primary dates are set by state law, there will also be a non-binding primary (a/k/a “beauty contest”) on the Democratic side (more on that below).

While there will be other candidates on the ballot, there are only two major candidates on the Republican side — Donald Trump and Nikki Haley.  Given that New Hampshire has a semi-open primary in which independents can vote in either party’s primary, it is believed that there will be a significant number of “moderates” who opt to vote in the Republican primary.  If there is a chance for Nikki Haley to win nationally, she needs a win in New Hampshire.  Given Trump’s many issues (legal, physical, mental), the Republicans really do not need the chaos that would ensue if Trump “wins” the nomination but has to withdraw before the convention.  (And while it is hard to project what the Supreme Court intends to do, it is easier for them to do the legally correct thing if Trump is not the presumptive Republican nominee.)  New Hampshire is a proportional state, so unless Haley or Trump blows the other out of the water what really matters here is the perception that Haley can compete and beat Trump than the actual delegate count.)

On the Democratic side, the timing of the New Hampshire primary (set by state law) violates the national delegate selection rules.  As a result, the primary is a non-binding primary.  Because the New Hampshire Democratic Party has decided to resist the national rules and support the unenforceable state law mandating that other states let New Hampshire goes first, New Hampshire has had its delegate total reduced to ten delegates.  More importantly, we do not yet have an approved plan for how those delegates will be chosen. Continue Reading...

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Delegate Math 2020 — New Hampshire

By tmess2 | Published February 7, 2020

With Iowa’s vote earlier this week, the winnowing process has begun.  However, it is still early enough that there is a good chance that more than two candidates will reach the 15% needed to win delegates.  And that will complicate the delegate math with fractional delegates.

(Normally, the early states — starting with Iowa — perform a winnowing function.  Candidates who finish at the bottom of the pack in Iowa tend not to survive for much longer.  And candidates who do well in terms of finishing near the top of the pack tend to survive for several more rounds.  With the delay in reporting results, it is unclear if Iowa will have its usual impact this year.  But even if it does, it would not be unusual to have multiple candidates getting 10% or more of the vote in New Hampshire. Starting in 1976, five of nine primaries have had at least three candidates getting 10% of the vote, and three primaries have had three candidates getting over 15% of the vote.  Since three of the remaining six primaries occurred in races that were perceived — at least heading into Iowa — as only having two candidates who were viable, about half of the races that had more than two “viable” candidates resulted in three candidates winning delegates in New Hampshire.  In short, Iowa only starts the winnowing process.  And this year, that means that more than two candidates have a legitimate shot at winning delegates in New Hampshire.)

Now back to the basic rules that apply to all states.  A candidate needs to get 15% of the vote (either state-wide or in a district) to be eligible to win delegates. If there are enough delegates available, every eligible candidate gets a delegate even if that reduces the number of delegates that another candidate gets.  If there are more eligible candidates than delegates, delegates are awarded in the order of finish.  Generally speaking, the formula for calculating delegates is the share of qualified votes (i.e. only the votes cast for candidates who got 15%) times the number of delegate available.  Since that typically will result in a fraction (say 2.3 delegates for candidate X), you start by giving out the whole numbers and then the remaining delegates are assigned in fractional order (i.e. .7 is ahead of .6 for getting the next delegate).  Technically, the rules say round up and round down initially, but the ranking then comes into play if round up and rounding down results in the wrong number of total delegates. Continue Reading...

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Could this be the end of the Iowa Caucuses?

By DocJess | Published August 30, 2019

The DNC has decided against Iowa’s virtual caucus plan. The Iowa plan was in response to the DNC’s requirement after 2016 that 2020 caucuses allow some sort of absentee voting. So this virtual voting was Iowa’s plan. The DNC said it was too easy to hack. And so, back to the drawing board, with a new plan to be delivered by mid-September. On the one hand, caucuses are long, not everyone can attend, and it’s a good idea to find a workaround. But, if you allow absentee voting, is it really that different from a primary?

Well, enter New Hampshire, which by law sets its primary at least a week prior to any other primary. If Iowa cannot come up with a way to please the DNC’s goal of increasing participation in caucuses without making their system a primary, then the calendar (which starts in only 5 months) may shift. Because if you cannot vote virtually, and you have to show up in person AND there has to be absentee voting, it certainly looks like a heavy lift to hold a caucus.

We know that the new Iowa plan favored activists over less-engaged voters. That is, the value of an in-person vote was greater than that of a virtual vote. And while I sadly cannot find the poll in question, I’d read that more of Warren and Sanders’ caucus-goers were in-person, compared to Biden’s. Continue Reading...

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New Hampshire Analysis

By DocJess | Published February 10, 2016

The results are in, and Bernie Sanders had a decisive victory last night, besting Hillary Clinton 60%-38% with 89% of the vote counted. He won all age categories, income categories and he even won the women’s vote.

There are two big takeaways from this win. First was seen in the speeches given by the two candidates. Hillary Clinton used her time to replay her biography, and use the word “I” throughout her speech, explaining things she had done, and what she stood for. In contrast, Bernie Sanders used the word “we” over and over, and talked to the issues he was running on. Most notably, while Sanders spoke in terms of the need to undo income equality, to stop the 1% from buying elections, making college free, and shoring up Social Security, Clinton spoke in far more broad terms, like “fighting for women and girls”. It was a striking difference. The message difference is absolute: Sanders has a succinct message that is repeated, the campaign is completely on message at all times. Clinton has trouble with messaging, sticking to the experience model which did not serve her well in 2008. It should be noted that both took time to congratulate the other and showed great respect for the other candidate and his/her supporters. A level of decency and honour not seen on the GOP side.

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New Hampshire Math

By tmess2 | Published February 6, 2016

For a couple more weeks, the primaries are still in the one or two states per week mode.  With one or two states, it is possible to do a detailed discussion of the rules for delegate allocation and to clarify the “math” of winning delegates.  Once March 1 hits, with double digit contests on both sides, the battle for delegates will become a multi-front war in which even the campaigns will be trying to figure out where the battlegrounds are.

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The New Hampshire Debate: Analysis

By DocJess | Published February 5, 2016

The first thing that struck me about last night’s Democratic debate in Durham, NH was how different is was from any of the Republican debates. First and foremost was the respect that the competitors showed to one another. Sanders called her “Madame Secretary”, and Clinton called him “Senator Sanders”. It bespoke professionalism and decency.

The questions were serious. Things like criminal justice, the Flint water crisis and other topics are never asked of the Republicans. (Probably because the moderators would have to explain what the question was about.) There were legitimate differences in both approach and substance but whenever possible, both Sanders and Clinton looked for, and noted common ground. Further, when given the opportunity to go after one another (Sanders about Clinton’s emails, Clinton about Sanders ads) they declined. At the very end, when asked whether each would choose the other for a running mate, both demurred and pledged to work together and said that either of them was a far better choice than any of the GOP contenders.

So who won? In my estimation, they both did. Both showcased their positions and presented themselves to the American public in ways that many low-information voters hadn’t seen before. An interesting aside: both have plans for what they’d like to get through Congress, but the truth is that Paul Ryan is likely to hold on as Speaker, and thus nothing gets to the floor of the House, even as we regain the Senate. Doesn’t matter who is elected president, until the intransigent leave Congress, it’s all gridlock. Continue Reading...

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Iowa Post-mortem: The Good, the Bad, and the Gone

By tmess2 | Published February 4, 2016

While the parties did not have much choice about including Iowa and New Hampshire in the window of early states, the theory behind the early states is that all four are small enough and different enough to help narrow the field.   While winning is nice, the real goals of the campaigns are:  1) to seem viable enough that supporters (both voters and donors) don’t go looking elsewhere; and 2) to meet targets for delegates.  Candidates who are unable to show signs of life quickly find that their campaigns have no life.

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On to New Hampshire

By DocJess | Published February 2, 2016

So the caucuses are over and it’s off to New Hampshire for the whole crew, less those who are done. On the Democratic side, O’Malley wasn’t really a contender this cycle, and neither Clinton nor Sanders needs to change to run in the Granite State. As an aside, when people run and lose, they have a much better chance when they run again: Marty, we hardly knew ye’ but we’ll be looking forward to you in 8 years.

It seems that Bernie will win New Hampshire, but there have been other races where someone was a foregone conclusion, and it didn’t work out. Still, the state is very favourable to him, he’s got a great organization on the ground, he’s well known, and the primary process is much easier than the incredibly anti-democratic (small d) system.

The Republican side is very different. It’s a whole disparate audience for them. Religion and guns are not going to play in New Hampshire the way that they, and ethanol, play in Iowa. Plus, the gloves are off. Fascinating hearing Chris Christie referring to Marco Rubio as “The Boy in the Bubble“. Amazing that Ben Carson didn’t see it coming last night the the Cruz campaign texted that Carson was done after Iowa. (He accepted their apology today.) The Republican dirty tricks are just starting, and should be really fun to watch. Perhaps we’ll see more fraud mailers, as the Cruz campaign sent out in Iowa. Depending on how you calculate it, Jeb! spent between $2,600 and $12,000 for each vote he received at the caucuses. WHAT will they spend on in the next week? Trump was contrite last night; his speech concise and good, right up until he said he’d probably buy a farm in Iowa. Continue Reading...

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The Road out of Iowa

By tmess2 | Published January 29, 2016

In less than four days, voters in Iowa will head to some location in their precincts and cast the first official votes of the 2016 presidential campaign.  Both because of its small size and because of the unique compositions of the respective parties in Iowa (compared to the national parties), winning in Iowa is not essential to winning either party’s nomination.  What does matter is how Iowa sets up the rest of the race.

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Bernie Sanders Could Win the NH Primary, IF he Can Get on the Ballot

By DocJess | Published June 28, 2015

Bernie Sanders is doing very well in New Hampshire. The latest poll has him down by only 8 points, plus or minus 5.2, meaning the spread is really 3 – 13 points.  The RCP average has him down by 15, which is not bad this far out. If he keeps pulling in the kind of numbers he’s been getting both for speeches and dollars, he could really win the New Hampshire primary, if it wasn’t for a little problem with their candidacy statement.

After the jump, the legalese, some commentary and a poll.

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