Category Archives: Primary and Caucus Results

Just another primary day – yawn

By Matt | Published March 8, 2016

For us election junkies, this is nirvana – the 4th election day in the last 8.

We’ve got primaries in Mississippi (polls close 8 PM EST) and Michigan (8 and 9 PM EST), a GOP-only primary in Idaho (10 and 11 PM EST), and GOP caucuses in Hawaii (1 AM EST).

Will Sanders make it a race in Michigan? Will Kasich? Does Cruz surprise in Mississippi? Continue Reading...

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Not so Super Sunday

By Matt | Published March 6, 2016

We’ve got Dem caucuses in Maine, ending at 8PM EST, and a GOP primary in Puerto Rico where the polls closed at 3PM. We’ll update the delegate counts here as they come in.

8:00 update: Rubio sweeps all 23 delegates in PR. Sanders wins Maine. Looks like a delegate split of 16-9.

Pledged DelegatesSuperdelegatesTotal
ClintonSandersClintonSandersClintonSanders
Iowa232162921
New Hampshire915611516
Nevada2015712716
South Carolina391454414
Georgia7329118429
Vermont1646422
Virginia6233127433
Alabama4496509
Arkansas221052710
American Samoa424183
Massachusetts46452016646
Oklahoma1721111822
Tennessee442375123
Texas147752116875
Colorado254193441
Minnesota31461134249
Kansas102311123
Louisiana371464314
Nebraska1015311316
Maine817411218
Mississippi31532347
Michigan6367127567
Northern Marianas42592
Florida1417324216575
Illinois797724110378
Missouri3635114735
North Carolina6047826849
Ohio81621619763
Democrats Abroad4921610
Arizona4233524735
Idaho51812620
Utah62722829
Alaska31311414
Washington2774103774
Hawaii817431220
Wisconsin3848814649
Wyoming774117
New York13910838177108
Connecticut2827154327
Delaware12911239
Maryland60351717736
Pennsylvania106832112783
Rhode Island111392013
Indiana394474644
Guam43593
West Virginia1118621720
Kentucky282723027
Oregon2536733239
Virgin Islands613091
Puerto Rico362464224
California26920664333206
Montana101111012
North Dakota51311614
New Jersey79471229149
New Mexico181682616
South Dakota101021210
District of Columbia164242406
Total221818335474827651881
TrumpCruzKasichRubioUncommitted
Iowa7817
New Hampshire11342
South Carolina5000
Nevada14617
Georgia421816
Vermont88
Virginia178516
Alabama36131
Massachusetts22488
Oklahoma1315123
Tennessee33169
Arkansas16159
Texas481043
Minnesota81317
Alaska11125
Kansas92416
Kentucky171577
Louisiana181855
Maine9122
Puerto Rico23
Mississippi2515
Michigan251717
Idaho1220
Hawaii1171
Virgin Islands1125
District of Columbia910
Guam15
Wyoming12311
Florida99
Illinois5496
Missouri3715
North Carolina292796
Northern Marianas9
Ohio66
Arizona58
Utah40
Colorado34
North Dakota110
Wisconsin636
American Samoa9
New York905
Connecticut28
Delaware16
Maryland38
Pennsylvania17
Rhode Island1135
Indiana57
Total101456215417328

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Delegate Math — Week of March 7

By tmess2 | Published March 5, 2016

As votes are being counted this evening (with each party having one contest scheduled for Sunday), time to look at the week ahead.  As with the previous week, all of the contests in both parties use proportional allocation of delegates (except the Republicans in Wyoming).  However, for the Republicans, each state gets to pick their own threshold (including potentially setting a threshold for winner-take-all) and decide whether to allocate all of the delegates based on the statewide result or allocate some delegates by congressional district.  For the Democrats, the key issue is how many delegates in each pool of delegate (district-by-district, at-large, and pledged party leader).  This upcoming week, there will be fewer contests — 4 for the Democrats and five and a half for the Republicans.

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Iowa Round Two

By tmess2 | Published March 5, 2016

The Iowa Caucuses were over a month ago and the media attention has now moved to other states and other contests.  However, the caucuses themselves were only the first step in a four-step process.   Next Saturday is the second step — the county conventions.  While waiting for result from the state’s that start today, let’s take a minute to look at what is at the county conventions next week.

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Super Tuesday Delegate Updates

By Matt | Published March 1, 2016

Update: 9 AM Trump and Clinton roll. Cruz takes Texas, Oklahoma and Alaska. Sanders takes Vermont, Oklahoma, Colorado and Minnesota, but trails badly in overall pledged delegates won.. Rubio not having a good night, but pulls out a win in Minnesota.

Pledged DelegatesSuperdelegatesTotal
ClintonSandersClintonSandersClintonSanders
Iowa232162921
New Hampshire915611516
Nevada2015712716
South Carolina391454414
Georgia7329118429
Vermont1646422
Virginia6233127433
Alabama4496509
Arkansas221052710
American Samoa424183
Massachusetts46452016646
Oklahoma1721111822
Tennessee442375123
Texas147752116875
Colorado254193441
Minnesota31461134249
Kansas102311123
Louisiana371464314
Nebraska1015311316
Maine817411218
Mississippi31532347
Michigan6367127567
Northern Marianas42592
Florida1417324216575
Illinois797724110378
Missouri3635114735
North Carolina6047826849
Ohio81621619763
Democrats Abroad4921610
Arizona4233524735
Idaho51812620
Utah62722829
Alaska31311414
Washington2774103774
Hawaii817431220
Wisconsin3848814649
Wyoming774117
New York13910838177108
Connecticut2827154327
Delaware12911239
Maryland60351717736
Pennsylvania106832112783
Rhode Island111392013
Indiana394474644
Guam43593
West Virginia1118621720
Kentucky282723027
Oregon2536733239
Virgin Islands613091
Puerto Rico362464224
California26920664333206
Montana101111012
North Dakota51311614
New Jersey79471229149
New Mexico181682616
South Dakota101021210
District of Columbia164242406
Total221818335474827651881
TrumpCruzKasichRubioUncommitted
Iowa7817
New Hampshire11342
South Carolina5000
Nevada14617
Georgia421816
Vermont88
Virginia178516
Alabama36131
Massachusetts22488
Oklahoma1315123
Tennessee33169
Arkansas16159
Texas481043
Minnesota81317
Alaska11125
Kansas92416
Kentucky171577
Louisiana181855
Maine9122
Puerto Rico23
Mississippi2515
Michigan251717
Idaho1220
Hawaii1171
Virgin Islands1125
District of Columbia910
Guam15
Wyoming12311
Florida99
Illinois5496
Missouri3715
North Carolina292796
Northern Marianas9
Ohio66
Arizona58
Utah40
Colorado34
North Dakota110
Wisconsin636
American Samoa9
New York905
Connecticut28
Delaware16
Maryland38
Pennsylvania17
Rhode Island1135
Indiana57
Total101456215417328

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Democrat Delegate Math-Week of February 29

By tmess2 | Published February 28, 2016

Now that South Carolina is over, we can turn our attention to Super Tuesday and its immediate aftermath.  When compared to the Republican Party, the Democratic math is both simpler and more complex.  The simpler side is that the thresholds for qualifying for delegates is the same in every state and district — 15%.  Similarly, the only way for the winner to take all of the delegates is to keep the opponent beneath 15%.  There are two complexities on the Democratic side.  First, even in the same state, the number of delegates elected from each district is different.  Second, rather than pooling all state-wide delegates together, the Democrats have two pools (except in the territories) — 1) pledged party leaders and 2) at-large delegates.

There will be eleven states and one territory voting on Tuesday, followed by three states on Saturday, and one state on Sunday.  Democrats Abroad begin voting on Tuesday, but do not finish up until next week.  The easy way to gain delegates on an opponent is simply to win districts in which there are an odd-number of delegates.  A one-vote margin in those districts gives you that extra delegate (whether a 2-1, 3-3, 4-3, or 5-4 or larger split).  Beyond that original margin, getting an even larger split or avoiding an even split in delegates in the districts with even margins requires a somewhat large margin (with how large depending on the number of delegates at issue.  It can be done, as shown by the last three states, but it is not easy.  This part of the delegate math is what makes it difficult for candidates who fall behind early to catch-up later.   Now onto the state-by-state splits:

Continue Reading...

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Republican Delegate Math: Week of February 29

By tmess2 | Published February 26, 2016

After the first four states, Donald Trump has taken 81 of 133 delegates.  However, between March 1 and March 6, eighteen states with over 800 delegates will begin the process.  The Republicans rules require that the states going this week allocate their delegates proportionately if they have a preference vote, but only place very loose limits on what qualifies as proportional.  For the states and territories going in this time period, there are four questions that each state must answer:  1) do we have a preference vote (for caucus states); 2) do we do proportional by congressional district or do we allocate all delegates by the statewide vote: 3) what is the minimum threshold to qualify for delegates (the rules allow up to 20%); and 4) is there a level at which the state becomes winner-take-all (the rules set a floor of 50%).

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Tentative Delegate Counts

By tmess2 | Published February 23, 2016

Reporters like a good story.  In theory, they like a good story based on facts.  When an event happens, they like to be able to say what it means.  The rules of the nomination process, however, are inconsistent with the way  that reporters normally operate.  Particularly in caucus states, the event that reporters want to treat as the election is merely the first step in the process.  So the reporters make estimates and report those estimates as if they are fact.  In some cases, these estimates are good.  In others, the problem is readily apparent up front.

The problem used to be worse.  In previous cycles, while Republican caucuses reported a presidential preference poll, that preference poll was just a beauty contest and what really mattered was the unstated preferences of the individuals elected as delegates to the next round of the process.  So when the media treated those preference polls as an estimate of the delegates from the state that estimate had nothing to do with reality.  The Republicans have changed the rules for this cycle.  If a state has a preference poll, that poll binds the delegates (with three major exceptions — Pennsylvania, Illinois, and West Virginia — which elect, at least, congressional district delegates directly).   For the three states that directly elect delegates, the reporters are likely to get the story right and look at the pledges of the delegate candidates in Illinois and West Virginia.  They might screw up Pennsylvania in which none of the delegates are technically bound to any candidate (but might do the legwork to find out who the delegates actually support).   (On the Democrat side, the delegates are bound based on the presidential preference vote.)

Some states, however, are not having a preference poll which will make things harder for reporters.  In Colorado (March 1), Wyoming (March 1), Guam (March 12), American Samoa (March 22), North Dakota (April 1), there are no preference polls.   In Colorado and Wyoming, if a delegate candidate declares a preference, that delegate is bound by that preference if elected.   In American Samoa, the convention will choose whether to bind the delegation by resolution.  In North Dakota, the convention can decide on an apportionment formula. Continue Reading...

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Delegate Math — Week of February 22

By tmess2 | Published February 21, 2016

This week, the pace of the primary campaign begins to pick up.  The Republican caucuses in Nevada will take place on Tuesday, giving voters very little time to digest the impact of yesterday’s results in South Carolina.  (Does Marco Rubio narrowly taking second place over Ted Cruz give Senator Rubio much of a bump or cause much Damage to Senator Cruz?  Where do the Jeb Bush supporters go?)  Democrats in South Carolina — voting on Saturday — have a little bit more time to consider the not-yet-final results from Nevada.

By taking all 50 delegates in South Carolina, Donald Trump — for now — has won over 50% of the delegates at stake in the first three contests.  However, Nevada returns the Republicans to the same system used in Iowa and New Hampshire — proportional allocation by state-wide vote.  The win in South Carolina assures that entering Super Tuesday, Trump will be in the lead and will exit Nevada with more than half of the delegates at stake in February.  (Currently, Trump is at 67 delegates out of 103 delegates in the first three states.  Nevada has 30 delegates.  Thus even if Trump got 0 delegates, he would still have 67 delegates out of 133, enough for a slight majority).

The rules of the Nevada Republican Party provide that, for the most part, fractional delegates are awarded based on the highest remainders.  With 30 delegates at stake, a whole delegate equals 3.3333__% of the vote.  However, to get any delegates, a candidate must get at least one whole delegate (3.33333__% of the vote).  Based on the current Real Clear Politics average (which should be taken with a grain of salt, given the difficulty of modeling the Nevada caucus vote and the question of where Jeb Bush’s vote and the undecided vote will go).  Donald Trump would get 13.40 delegates (which would translate to 14 delegates); Ted Cruz would get 6.38 delegates (which would translate to 6 delegates); Marco Rubio would get 6.06 delegates (which would translate to 6 delegates); John Kasich would get 2.23 delegates (which would translate to 2 delegates).  and Ben Carson would get 1.91 delegates (which would translate to 2 delegates). Continue Reading...

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2008 vs. 2016 — The Delegate Numbers

By tmess2 | Published February 20, 2016

Unlike in some other countries, the United States does not directly elect its head of state.  Instead, both for the primary and the general election, the U.S. has an indirect system in which the voter technically elects other people (delegates in the primary and electors for the general election) who actually cast the votes.  For the most part, for both parties, the overwhelming majority of delegates are either legally or morally bound to follow the directives of the voters in their respective state or district and the system for choosing electors has mostly resulted in electors following the directives of the voter.  Thus, at the end of the day, in figuring out who is leading or who has won a nomination battle, we look to the pledged delegate counts.  For the general election, we look to the number of electors won.

For multiple reasons, nomination fights rarely go to the end of the process.  Candidates who are hopelessly behind drop out leaving the path clear for the leading candidate to win the nomination.  In 2008,  however, the Democratic race was so close that it went down to the last primary.  Especially as one of the two finalists is running again, that allows us to use the 2008 numbers as a base going forward to measure who is doing what they have to do to win the election.

There are, of course, differences from 2008.  First, is that, in 2008, John Edwards did well enough in the first six states to get delegates in four of those states.   Additionally, due to Michigan going early, Barack Obama and John Edwards were not on the ballot in Michigan and their supporters had to vote for a slate pledges as uncommitted.  So there were 55 “pledged” uncommitted delegates from Michigan and a total of 32 Edwards delegates from Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida.  For comparison purposes, that leaves two measures for these five states and nationally — President Obama vs. Hillary Clinton (a national net of +17 for President Obama), and the “field” vs. Secretary Clinton (a national gap of 104 delegates).  In this year’s race, Martin O’Malley did not pick up any delegates; so it will just be Bernie Sanders vs. Secretary Clinton.  Given that both candidates need to win the uncommitted/Edwards delegates, my own opinion is that the “field” comparison is more useful. Continue Reading...

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