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Category Archives: Primary and Caucus Results
Delegate Math — Week of February 15
This week is a weird week in the presidential primary process. For almost all primary states, both parties hold their primaries on the same date because the date is set by the state legislature. Even in caucus states, there is a tendency that both parties will choose the same date. In South Carolina, however, the parties choose the primary date for their party. So this week, the Republicans have their primary in South Carolina, and the Democrats have their caucus in Nevada. Next week, the two parties will flip with the Republicans going in Nevada, and the Democrats going in South Carolina.
On the Republican side, the four states in the pre-March 1 window are exempt from the proportionality rule. South Carolina has chosen to go with a winner-take-most system. The candidate who finishes first in each of the seven congressional district will win the three delegates for that district. The candidate who finishes first state-wide gets the twenty-six at-large delegates and the three automatic delegates. At least according to the polls, Trump seems to be safely in the lead for the twenty-nine state-wide candidates. If one of the establishment candidates has a chance at winning one of the congressional districts, it is most likely to be the 1st district or the 6th district. Ted Cruz’s best chance of winning a congressional district will be the 3rd, 4th, and 5th districts.
On the Democratic side, Nevada has some weird rules. State law designates how many delegates each precinct gets to the county convention and how many delegates each county gets to the congressional and state district conventions. The counties get one delegate to the state convention for each 150 registered democrats in the county. The formula for the precinct is more complicated. In counties with fewer than 400 democrats, each precinct gets 1 delegate to the county convention for each 5 registered democrats. This ratio gradually changes so that in the largest counties (those with more than 4,000 democrats), each precinct gets 1 delegate to the county convention for each 50 registered democrats. Because this formula simply makes the county conventions larger and does not alter representation at the conventions that actually choose delegates, it should not have an actual impact on who gets Nevada’s delegates to the national convention. While Nevada will report raw vote totals, the key in Nevada (as in Iowa and other caucus states) is figuring out how many delegates each campaign will have at each of the county conventions and what that means for delegates at the state convention where delegates will actually be allocated.
Also posted in Bernie Sanders, Delegates, Elections, GOP, Hillary Clinton
Tagged Donald Trump, Nevada, South Carolina, Ted Cruz
Comments Off on Delegate Math — Week of February 15
Post-New Hampshire: Where Do They Go from Here
In the typical presidential campaign cycle, the calendar year before the primaries is spent doing two things — raising money and campaigning in the early states (almost entirely in Iowa and New Hampshire). The reasons for this focus are simple. There is not enough time after Iowa and New Hampshire for a campaign to raise the type of funds needed to “go national.” Additionally, several major states come early in March; so the campaign has to start working in these states even before the first votes are counted. Both parties have a history of candidates with surprisingly good results in Iowa and New Hampshire who did not have the resources on hand to turn those early results into a successful national campaign. On the other hand, as several candidates in this year’s campaign have already shown, failure in Iowa and New Hampshire mean the end of the campaign. For the eight candidates still running, the question after New Hampshire is simply what’s next.
On the Democratic side, with only two candidates, this question is simple. As 2008 showed, in a two-candidate race (especially with proportional representation), candidates need to run everywhere. The last South Carolina polls were in January, before either the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary, and the newest Nevada polls are even older. The demographics in South Carolina and Nevada are significantly different than the demographics in Iowa and New Hampshire. In the long run, whether this race will be close will depend upon if Sanders can convince minority voters and poor whites in rural areas to support him. While — in European terms — Sanders is a “pink” at most, his characterization of himself as a “Democratic Socialist” might become an insurmountable barrier to gaining these votes in areas in which he is less known as socialist is a “dirty word” to a lot of voters who do not understand the significant distinctions between various progressive political philosophies. While there are some potentially favorable states on March 1 (Vermont, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and maybe Colorado), Sanders needs to keep things close in Nevada, South Carolina, and the remaining March 1 states (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia).
The Republican side gives candidates more choices on how to play. The New Hampshire results have scrambled the field. If Marco Rubio had been able to follow-up on Iowa with a strong finish in New Hampshire, he would have become the favorite to win the nomination. His weak showing has given both Jeb Bush and John Kasich a degree of hope to become the consensus candidate. At this point, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz need to run everywhere. In the pre-March 15 states, while each state has slightly different rules, a general rule of thumb is that 20% state-wide and top two in each congressional district equals delegates. While Kasich, Bush, and Rubio continue to split the moderately conservative vote, the path is clear for Trump and Cruz to pad their delegate totals — making it harder for the candidate who survives between the other three to get the nomination.
Also posted in Bernie Sanders, Elections, GOP, Hillary Clinton
Tagged Ben Carson, Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz
Comments Off on Post-New Hampshire: Where Do They Go from Here
Iowa Post-mortem: The Good, the Bad, and the Gone
While the parties did not have much choice about including Iowa and New Hampshire in the window of early states, the theory behind the early states is that all four are small enough and different enough to help narrow the field. While winning is nice, the real goals of the campaigns are: 1) to seem viable enough that supporters (both voters and donors) don’t go looking elsewhere; and 2) to meet targets for delegates. Candidates who are unable to show signs of life quickly find that their campaigns have no life.
Also posted in Bernie Sanders, Elections, Hillary Clinton, NH Primary
Tagged Bernie Sanders, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Iowa, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Martin O'Malley, Mike Huckabee, New Hampshire, Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, Ted Cruz
Comments Off on Iowa Post-mortem: The Good, the Bad, and the Gone
Iowa Democratic Caucus Results
There are two sets of delegates: those elected out of the caucuses, and the Super Delegates. The latter pick their candidates. The former voted, initially, as:
Clinton – 49.9%
Sanders – 49.6%
O’Malley – 0.6%
These numbers will change through the process, which will culminate in April, as O’Malley’s percentage will be reassigned. However, the split for delegates will be about even between Clinton and Sanders.