Category Archives: Primary Elections

South Carolina Recap

By tmess2 | Published February 27, 2024

It’s hard interpreting the Republican results for president this year.  If Donald Trump were the incumbent, the numbers that he is getting would be the sign of substantial opposition within the party.  If this year were a truly open primary (i.e. he was not being treated as the “incumbent candidate” by Republicans), his results would be outstanding.

But the bigger story out of Saturday might be at the Congressional District level and is about the House of Representatives, not the presidency.  Nikki Haley only won one of the seven congressional districts — the First District.  Nancy Mace is the current, two-term, incumbent.  She was one of the “Freedom Caucus Eight” who voted to vacate the chair.  Kevin McCarthy is apparently planning on supporting a primary challenger to Representative Mace.  Does the fact that Nikki Haley got 53% of the vote show that a majority of the Republicans in the First District will support an establishment challenger to a Trumpist candidate.  If so, the Representative Mace’s time in Congress might be coming to a quick end.  Additionally, while the lines were a little different, the last time that the Republicans were this divided and supported the more extreme primary candidate, the Democrats managed to win this district (in 2018).  So, if the Democrats find a credible candidate for the general and Representative Mace wins the primary, perhaps enough real Republicans do not vote in the general or opt to vote for the Democrat to take this seat away from the Freedom Caucus.

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2024 Presidential Primaries — South Carolina Republicans and Michigan

By tmess2 | Published February 24, 2024

As we head into the last week of February, we are also reaching the end of the authorized early primaries.  Under the respective rules of the two parties, there is a preliminary window in which only some states were authorized to hold early primaries/caucuses.  For the Republicans, the “regular” primary window opens on March 1.  For Democrats, the “regular” primary window opens on the first Tuesday in March (March 5).

For this last week, we have three primaries on the book.  First up, today, is the South Carolina Republican primary.  South Carolina law allows the parties to choose the date of their own primary, and the two parties have tended to choose different dates (but usually a Saturday).  And so we had the Democratic primary several weeks back which was won by President Joe Biden.  Now, it’s the Republican primary.  While there are seven candidates on the ballot, two of them are not known nationally, and three of the nationally-known candidates have dropped out.  In other words, while five of the candidates may get some votes, there are only two with any chance of winning delegates — former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and a candidate who ineligible to be president, Donald Trump.  South Carolina Republicans use a “winner-take-most” system for allocating delegates.  In other words, each congressional district has three delegates and whomever wins that district gets all three delegates.  Likewise, there are twenty-nine at-large delegates, and whomever wins the state gets all twenty-nine delegates.  Especially with only two serious candidates in the races, whomever wins statewide will have won at least one congressional district (and probably will have won more than one).  Thus, the winner of the primary is guaranteed to take at least 32 of the 50 delegates (which is why this type of system is referred to as winner-take-most).  Despite the fact that Nikki Haley used to be the governor of South Carolina, the traditional Republican Party in South Carolina is dead and has been replaced by the Trump Party.  While anybody who did not vote in the Democratic Primary could theoretically vote in the Republican Primary, there probably will not be enough independents and Democrats voting to save the Republican Party from itself.  Polls show Donald Trump leading by a wide enough margin that he should win all fifty delegates, and the only question is whether Nikki Haley can make it close enough to steal a district or two.

On Tuesday, we will primaries for both parties in Michigan.  President Joe Biden should win the state easily.  Neither Representative Dean Phillips nor Marianne Williamson is a serious contender to reach the fifteen percent to win delegates.  The real contender to take delegates away from President Biden is “uncommitted.”  Representative Rashida Tlaib has been encouraging voters to vote for uncommitted in protest of President Biden’s middle of the road stance on Israel’s response to Hamas’s invasion of Israel.  While the pro-Palestinian progressive wing of the Democratic Party has a problem with Israel trying to remove Hamas from the Gaza Strip, if President Biden were to do what they want him to do, it would guarantee Donald Trump’s victory in November.  If uncommitted stays below 15% (state-wide or in any individual district), President Biden will win all of the delegates (state-wide or in that district).  The largest districts have seven delegates; so it is unlikely that uncommitted will get more than one delegate in any individual district.  The one exception to that might be Representative Tlaib’s district.  And the issue in that district will be whether uncommitted can get to the 21% necessary to win a second delegate.  If uncommitted does not win any delegates in that district, we could see a primary challenge to Representative Tlaib emerge.  State-wide, there are twenty-five at-large delegates and fifteen party-leader delegates.  As such, if uncommitted were to get to fifteen percent state-wide, uncommitted would get, at least, four at-large and two party-leader delegates.   But the expectation is that President Biden will win almost all of the 117 delegates at stake on Tuesday. Continue Reading...

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Presidential Primaries — South Carolina, Nevada, and Virgin Islands

By tmess2 | Published February 3, 2024

Over the next week, we will have four/five primary contests for the two parties.  (Four if you only count the binding contests, five if you count the beauty contests.)  This list includes the first two sanctioned contests on the Democratic side.

First up is today’s Democratic primary in South Carolina.  South Carolina is a little bit different from the rest of the country.  While South Carolina has a state-run primary, it allows the parties to choose the date of its own presidential primary.  As a result, it is not unusual for the two parties to choose different days.  (That flexibility allowed the Democratic National Committee to place South Carolina at the start of the primary schedule.)  The Democrats will hold their primary today, but the Republicans will not hold their primary for another three weeks.

As with most other states, the Democratic primary is essentially multiple primaries at the same time.  There are, effectively, two state-wide primaries — one for at-large delegates and one for “pledged party leader and elected officials” (PLEO) delegates.  Meanwhile, there is a primary in each congressional district.  Voters will cast only one vote, but it will be counted in each of the relevant contests.  For each of these races, the key number is 15%.  Any candidate who gets 15% will get at least one delegate from that pool of delegate. Continue Reading...

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New Hampshire Primary

By tmess2 | Published January 23, 2024

Today is round two for the Republicans with the New Hampshire Primary.  Because primary dates are set by state law, there will also be a non-binding primary (a/k/a “beauty contest”) on the Democratic side (more on that below).

While there will be other candidates on the ballot, there are only two major candidates on the Republican side — Donald Trump and Nikki Haley.  Given that New Hampshire has a semi-open primary in which independents can vote in either party’s primary, it is believed that there will be a significant number of “moderates” who opt to vote in the Republican primary.  If there is a chance for Nikki Haley to win nationally, she needs a win in New Hampshire.  Given Trump’s many issues (legal, physical, mental), the Republicans really do not need the chaos that would ensue if Trump “wins” the nomination but has to withdraw before the convention.  (And while it is hard to project what the Supreme Court intends to do, it is easier for them to do the legally correct thing if Trump is not the presumptive Republican nominee.)  New Hampshire is a proportional state, so unless Haley or Trump blows the other out of the water what really matters here is the perception that Haley can compete and beat Trump than the actual delegate count.)

On the Democratic side, the timing of the New Hampshire primary (set by state law) violates the national delegate selection rules.  As a result, the primary is a non-binding primary.  Because the New Hampshire Democratic Party has decided to resist the national rules and support the unenforceable state law mandating that other states let New Hampshire goes first, New Hampshire has had its delegate total reduced to ten delegates.  More importantly, we do not yet have an approved plan for how those delegates will be chosen. Continue Reading...

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Iowa Caucuses 2024

By tmess2 | Published January 14, 2024

The 2024 presidential primaries officially kicks off on Monday night in the frigid cold of Iowa.

Traditionally, the Iowa Caucuses have three major components.  First, they are used to create the local organization of the political parties as caucus attendees elect the precinct’s representatives to the county committee.  Second, they are used to choose the delegates to the county convention (which in turn will choose the congressional district/state convention delegates who will elect the national convention delegates).  Third, a preference vote is taken which is used to allocate national convention delegates.

Thanks in part to Iowa’s move to the right and past problems with counting and report the preference vote, the national Democratic Party has rescinded its permission for Iowa to conduct a pre-March preference vote.  Unlike their counterparts in New Hampshire, Iowa Democrats have worked with the national party (in the hopes that in the future they might get a pre-March spot back).  But it is helpful to have both parties hold their precinct caucuses on the same date and holding a later event would create timing issues.  So the Democrats will use their caucuses for the purposes of electing party officials and the delegates who will attend the county conventions.  But to comply with national party rules, there will be no presidential preference vote on Monday.  Instead, there will be a party-run primary that will conclude in March. Continue Reading...

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What the Indictment Might Mean for 2024

By tmess2 | Published April 1, 2023

To begin with the obvious, an indictment is a document used to formally bring criminal charges against an individual (here the Orange Menace).  Under the law, all criminal defendants are presumed to be innocent of the charged offense, and the prosecution has the burden to present sufficient evidence to convince twelve jurors to unanimously agree that the evidence proves that defendant guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.

There is no precise timetable for when a case must go to trial.  The U.S. Supreme Court has held that, as a matter of federal constitutional law, a trial begun within eight months of charges being filed is sufficiently speedy to satisfy the speedy trial clause of the U.S. Constitution.  If, as often happens, it takes more than eight months to bring a case to trial, the courts then use a balancing test to decide how long is too long.  In theory, Trump might be able to delay the trial until after the 2024 election.  If he succeeds in this goal, the problems for him will be mostly how much of a distraction the pending case(s) will be (both in terms of time and money) and how voters react to the charges.  While it’s too early to tell for sure, the initial reaction of voters seems to be that the true believers will see any accusation against their god as persecution and an attempt to block them from electing him.  This groups might be just enough to get him the Republican nomination, but this group is not large enough to get him elected.  On the other hand, a significant group of swing voters seem to be tired of the chaos and criminality associated with Trump, and these charges (unless something else comes out to undermine them) seem likely to make it harder for Trump to win the general election.

The “interesting” questions come when Trump is convicted.  (Most defendants are convicted.  While there is an old saying that a grand jury would indict a ham sandwich, that saying is only half true.  Yes, the prosecution controls what a grand jury hears, but they still need some credible evidence that the defendant committed a crime.  And, after you get the indictment, you still need to win a trial.  While some prosecutors might put the hand slightly on the scale to get an indictment in a case that is a close call, it does little good to bring charges when your evidence is so weak that you have no chance at getting a conviction.)  And this is a question of ballot laws in the fifty states (plus D.C.) and the rules of the Republican Party. Continue Reading...

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Presidential Primaries and Delegate Selection

By tmess2 | Published February 21, 2021

For most people, the presidential election begins sometime after the mid-terms — either when candidates start to announce, or when the parties start holding debates, or just before the Iowa Caucuses.  But the actual planning begins much, much earlier.  Over the next two years, the Democrats and Republcians will be deciding whether to make any changes to the rules for the 2024 Convention.

Technically, the Democrats begin every cycle needing to adopt rules.  Of course, there are rules from the last time, and those rules will be mostly readopted.  There may be changes to some provisions, but the Democrats do not start from scratch.

As noted in Sunday’s post, the Republicans officially adopt their rules for the next cycle at their national convention.  Any change to those rules requires an extraordinary majority on the Republican National Committee with a deadline of September 2022 to make any changes for this cycle. Continue Reading...

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Tomorrow’s Massachusetts Primary

By DocJess | Published August 31, 2020

Tomorrow is the Massachusetts primary. It’s a fascinating microcosm of campaigns. If you’re a political junkie (LIKE ME!) you’ve been following it really closely. While the 4th CD is a complete toss up (with a bunch of good options), the 1st CD is a battle between a really good guy (Richie Neal) who is being challenged by a guy who skirted the (possibly fake) sexual accusations against him.

Sometimes these challenges make sense — notably this year, Eliot Engel’s loss. Which was no great loss in the grand scheme of things: Engel was not that productive, and he’d lost touch with his District. But Richie Neal? One of the authors of the ACA, and the new NAFTA, Chair of Ways and Means. With a great body of legislative accomplishment that have been good for his district and for the nation. Challenger Alex Morse has said he would have voted against the CARES Act. He felt it didn’t go far enough. This shows a complete naivete of both necessity and political process. You want to be aspirational? Fine. But don’t do it when people need immediate financial relief from disaster. Morse believed that $600 a week wasn’t enough, and the $1,200 wasn’t enough…too many Alex Morses and no one would have gotten anything because those were the top numbers the House was going to be able to wrest from the Senate.

And then there’s the Ed Markey – Joe Kennedy Senate primary, which is actually the race, as the victor will win the seat in November. It’s astounding to me that Kennedy is challenging Markey not so much on issue grounds (their views are similar, although where there is a difference, Markey is more left than Kennedy) but because he’s OLD. No one ever says Ruth Bader Ginsburg is too old, as an aside. Continue Reading...

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August 4 Primaries — Arizona, Michigan, and Washington

By tmess2 | Published July 25, 2020

As the calendar flips around to August, we are about to hit a rush of state and congressional primaries.  Some states (e.g., California, Texas, Pennsylvania, Illinois) hold their state and congressional primaries on the same day as the presidential primary.  Others (e.g., Florida) hold a separate presidential primary with the state and congressional primaries occurring later in the year.  And most of the states with separate primaries will hold them between August 1 and mid-September.  (In addition, there is the postponed Connecticut primary.)

Earlier this week, I discussed the  two states holding primaries on August 4 that I am most familiar with (Kansas and Missouri).  (And if I hear another ad attacking a hardcore pro-life Republican for saying something even slightly pro-choice fifteen years ago, I may get physically ill.)  The other three states holding primaries on August 4 are Arizona, Michigan, and Washington.

In Arizona, the biggest race is the special election for the remaining two years of the Senator John McCain’s term.  Mark Kelly is the only candidate on the ballot on the Democratic side.  It is likely that interim Senator Martha McSally will be the Republican nominee.  She does, however, have primary opposition.  Her opponent has some money, but not really enough to run a successful campaign.  So unless there is a lot of silent opposition to her among Arizona Republicans, she should win the primary.  (There was one poll that compared Kelly against both McSally and her primary opponent, and the primary opponent did a little bit better but not much better against Kelly.)  In 2018, the Democrats won 5 of the 9 congressional seats and none of the races was particularly close.  At this point, I am not hearing anything out of Arizona that points to any of the primaries being interesting. Continue Reading...

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Bleeding Kansas

By tmess2 | Published July 21, 2020

In two weeks, Kansas and Missouri will have their state and federal primaries.  (There are also primaries in Arizona, Michigan, and Washington.)  While on the Missouri side of the state line, the biggest race is actually a ballot issue (Medicare expansion which is expected to pass), Kansas has some major races on the Republican primary ballot.

The big one is the U.S. Senate race.  The incumbent Senator — Pat Roberts — is a conservative Republican.  However, that is not enough to guarantee a win in the Republican primary, and Senator Roberts had a tough race in 2014 (only getting 48% of the primary vote for an 8% margin).   Senator Roberts has  decided that forty years in Congress (sixteen in the House and twenty-four in the Senate) is enough and it’s time to enjoy retirement.  And eleven Republicans decided that their names would sound so much better with Senator in front of it.

At this point in the race, it appears that there are three major contenders.  The establishment choice is very conservative Representative Roger Marshall.  Marshall represents the first district of Kansas which covers western and north central Kansas.  Meanwhile, the Tea Party candidate is Spawn of Satan Kris Kobach.  Folks may remember former Secretary of State Kobach as the Republican who lost the governor’s seat in 2018 or as the author of much of the anti-immigrant legislation passed over the past decade.  Finally, there is Bob (Hamilton) the plumber.  Hamilton runs a highly successful plumbing company in the Kansas City area and is trying to paint himself as a Trump clone. Continue Reading...

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