Category Archives: Primary Elections

Superdelegates and Pendulums

Reprinted with Permission

50 years ago, Democratic candidates were chosen by “The Party”.

50 years ago this week, at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago, that began to change. There had been some primaries and caucuses in 1968,  of which Vice President Hubert Humphrey won a tiny amount, but “The Party” wanted Humphrey to be the party’s presidential nominee. They got that, and a whole lot of protests, and a disaster in November. Nixon won the Electoral College 301 – 191, with the remainder going to George Wallace. Continue Reading...

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Delegate Selection Rules for 2020

This weekend, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) held its “Summer” Meeting.  One of the items on the agenda was the RBC’s draft of the various documents that together comprise the rules for the 2020 nomination process.  For first time readers of this site, the Democrats have a multi-step process for drawing up the rules for delegate selection.   Typically, step one is a Festivus-type Commission in which the party head appoints a Commission drawing from all parts of the party for an airing of the grievances from the last cycle.  (Sometimes, this step is skipped when a Democrat wins the White House, particularly when a Democratic incumbent is re-elected.)  That Commission then drafts suggestions.  Step Two is the Rules and By-laws Committee (RBC) of the DNC actually takes those suggestions (and other suggestions by RBC members) and amends the rules from the last cycle to incorporate those suggestions that have the support of the RBC.  Step Three is that the full DNC then reviews and approves the new set of rules and issues them to the state parties.  Step Four is that the state parties then (taking into account both legislative changes in their state and the new national rules) draft the state rules.  Typically, the state rules need to be completed by the late spring/early summer of the year after the mid-term.  Step Five is that the state rules are then submitted to the RBC for review for compliance with the national rules and approval (or directions to make changes to comply with the national rules).

The reports out of the Summer Meeting suggests that the RBC drafts were adopted essentially intact; so what follows is based on the draft plans that were approved by the RBC:  the Call for the 2020 Convention and the Delegate Selection Rules for the 2020 Convention.   (Both linked documents show the changes to the old rules.)   There are several important details/changes in the draft documents from the RBC.  (If you want to skip the technicalities of the rules, what these may mean in practical terms is at the end of this post.)

First, the 2020 Convention will take place in mid-July.  (Call, Preamble).  The DNC will select the site later this year or early next year.  The delegate selection process will end by June 20, 2020.  (Call, Part III). Continue Reading...

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Late Summer Primaries

While a slim majority of states hold their primaries (at least in non-presidential years) in May and June, most of the rest of the states hold their primaries in August and the first part of September.  With the caution that there are always races that develop at the local level outside the glare of the national media (see New York 14), here is what to look out for over the next two months.

Before the next round of primaries begin, there are run-offs in July.  The biggest of the run-offs is probably the Georgia Governor’s race on the Republican side where both candidates are trying their best to out-conservative each other.

The late summer primary season kicks off on August 2 with Tennessee.  The big race in the fall will be the U.S. Senate seat, but the primaries do not appear to be competitive.  The primaries for Governor on the hand may be more competitive.  While none of the Congressional seats are likely to be competitive in the fall, the Republicans have several decently funded candidate running for the open seat (the Republican incumbent is one of those in the Governor’s race) in the Sixth District. Continue Reading...

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The 2020 Convention — Rules Changes (June 2018)

For both parties, the rules governing the national convention is the product of gradual change over time.  It is a natural desire — shared by both parties — to look back and what went wrong and to try to fix it.  The more intelligent members of both parties understand that every cycle will be somewhat different,; so “fixing” something to stack the deck against a candidate is likely to backfire.  A perfect example is the Republican rule changes after 2012.  In 2012, the Ron Paul campaign was perceived as manipulating the rules to get Ron Paul supporters elected to fill delegate slots won by other candidates.  In response, the rules were changed to bind delegates to vote for the candidate that won the delegates.  Regardless of how one feels about the merits of that change, the result was that the Republican Party establishment (which had pushed for the rule change) was helpless to stop the hostile takeover of the Republican Party by Donald Trump.

After the last convention (following past practice), the Democratic Party appointed a commission (the Unity Reform Commission) to study the rules and suggest changes in certain areas.  In early 2018, The commission’s report then went to the Rules & By-laws Committee (RBC) of the Democratic National Committee.  Among the tasks of the RBC is drafting the actual rules governing the 2020 delegate selection process and the convention process.  Since receiving the report of the commission, the RBC has been considering that report along with looking at other issues related to delegate selection process and has been composing a draft of the rules for 2020.  Later this year, that draft will go to the full Democratic National Committee for a final vote.

While the RBC has discussed a large number of changes, the one change that has gotten some media attention is the rules governing who can run.  Most of the media coverage has, at the very least, ignored the history behind this rule, and suggested that the rules change is targeted at Senator Bernie Sanders. Continue Reading...

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California Chaos — Part II

There are two features of the California election cycle that makes things difficult to try to figure out what is and will happen.  The first, as discussed last week is its use of an open, semi-partisan, top two primary in which the candidates who finish first and second, regardless of party and regardless of percent, advance to the November general election.  The other is how California votes and count votes.

Like its two neighbors to the north, Oregon and Washington, California has very liberal rules on mail-in ballots.  The deadline for the local election authorities to receive mail-in ballots is this upcoming Friday (June 8), and those ballots will count as long as they are postmarked by yesterday.  In addition to mail-in ballots that have yet to arrive, there are also provisional ballots (and, based on early news reports, there may have been a problem with voter registration records in Los Angeles County that could result in a large number of provisional ballots in that county).  In short, we will not know how many votes remain to be counted until this weekend or early next week when counties report to the state how many ballots remain to be counted.  The California Secretary of State’s website has two relevant tabs for the remaining count — one that summarizes the status of unprocessed ballots in each county (crucial to knowing how many votes remain) and one on country reporting status that provides information on each county’s on-going updates (e.g. if done, when last reported, etc.).  The county reporting status update (as of this posting) indicates that most of the counties have completed their election day vote counts, but a handful of counties, primarily Santa Clara are not yet done from last night.

Because of the late ballots,  the current vote totals are a little like highly accurate pre-election polls.  We know that there will be some differences between the election night percentages and the remaining uncounted ballots, but it is reasonable to expect that those differences will be small.  In a general election, based on past history, we would expect the late votes to lean Democratic compared to the election day results.  However, in a top two primary, the issue is not whether the votes will be for a Democrat or a Republican, but which Democrat or which Republican.  If the late votes favor a fourth-placed Democrat over a second-placed Democrat and a third-placed Republican over a first-placed Republican, that could move the third-placed Republican into second place even if the overall Democratic percentage in the district improves.  In other words, depending upon how close the race is, it may still be too early to tell who will advance.  Things will improve over June as the counties send updates to the Secretary of State.  The counties, however, have until July 6 to finish their counts.  Depending upon how quickly updates are sent, we may not know the two finalists in some races for two or three weeks. Continue Reading...

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California Chaos

With no primaries this week, the focus turns to June 5.  While there are several other significant states with primaries on June 5, the big one is California.  While California is a blue state, it is large enough that there is still a significant Republican contingent (14 Representatives) in the California delegation.  Measured either by total seats, by current Republican delegations, or by Partisan Vote Index score (6 in seats that are R+3 or more Democratic), California will play a significant role in which party has a majority in the House in 2019.  The House seats in California range from D+40 (Barbara Lee) to R+14 (Kevin McCarthy).

Aside from the size of California, the complicating factor for next week’s primary are the rules governing the primary.  California uses a “top two” primary.  Like a jungle primary (which is not really a primary, but a general election with a run-off rule), all the candidates from all of the parties run in one election.  (Thus a voter could pick a Democrat for Governor, a Republican for Lieutenant Governor, Green for U.S. Senate, and Peace and Justice for U.S. House.)  Unlike a jungle primary, in which a candidate can win the seat by getting over 50% in the “primary,” a top two primary is a true primary and the candidates who finish first and second will be on the November ballot.

The nature of the top two primary creates an element of strategy for the parties.  In districts in which you have the majority, having two strong candidates is a good thing.  It makes it possible that the general election will feature two candidates from your party.  In a district in which your lead is solid enough, you can even have three strong candidates without risking the seat.  On the other hand, if you are the trailing party in the district, you want fewer candidates from your party.  You can get away with having two candidates if the other party has more than two strong candidates and the district is close enough.  The bottom line, however, is that having three strong candidates in a close district can result in you being shut out of the general election. Continue Reading...

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Handicapping the Primaries: May 15, 2018

Up this week: Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon and Pennsylvania.

Idaho: In this ruby red state, it is unlikely that any of the positions up for election will change parties in November. There is a certain amount of musical chairs amoung the Republicans. Governor Bruce Otter has decided not to run for re-election, and so current Lt. Governor Brad Little and current Congressman Raul Labrador lead the pack of Republicans running for the gubernatorial nomination.  Five Republicans, primarily state reps, will be competing for the Lt. Governor nomination.  Seven Republicans are vying to replace Labrador, and the other Congressman, Mike Simpson, is running unopposed in the GOP primary.

The potential for a Democrat to take over any of these positions seems unlikely. The one thing to keep in the back of our minds is the housing crisis in Boise and its environs, After the Great Recession 10 years ago, people started moving to Boise as opportunities arose, and because it was cheaper than say, California. However, the construction industry abandoned the state, and thus, there is a paucity of housing, especially affordable housing, and no ability to get it built. So, there may be people who want change, including places to live – but red state populations are not known for voting their own self-interest. Continue Reading...

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Handicapping this Week’s Primaries

Tmess gave a great overview of the upcoming primary season.  This week, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia are up. In addition to Tmess’s information, here’s a little local color.

We’ll start in West Virginia because it’s just plain the most fun. There is a contested Republican Senatorial primary. The candidates are Don Blankenship, Rep. Evan Jenkins and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. Now, the fun part here is that while there hasn’t been any polling to speak of, the “common wisdom” says that Blankenship has a real chance. And here is the part that will make you chuckle. Not only does Don not live in West Virginia, he lives in Vegas, as does his parole officer, AND he needs permission from his parole officer to travel out of state. I’m personally pulling for him to win — Mitch McConnell’s PAC (Mountain Families) recently spent $1.3 million on anti-Blankenship TV ads, as well as digital ads. This worked SO WELL for Mitch in Alabama a few months back. And by the way, Don refers to Mitch’s father-in-law as a “Chinaperson”. Very feminist of him. Bottom line, if Don can pull it off, Joe Manchin will breathe a sigh of relief. Joe is a mixed bag: we’d like to keep the seat to keep it blue, even though Joe’s is not a solid vote, but if it gives us the majority, there’s a lot of good in terms of process, not to mention Dick Schumer as Senate Majority Leader in lieu of Mitch. As an aside, one of Joe’s daughters is Heather Bresch — you remember her.  She’s the person for whom there is a special ring in hell because of upping the cost of EpiPens by 400%.  There are other races, as in, ALL the Congressional seats, but there is little chance any will change parties. But political junkies can look forward to 2020 when Governor Jim Justice is running for re-election — he was elected in 2016 as a Democrat and then came out in love with Donald Trump and changed parties.

In Ohio, there are two marquee races: Senate and Governor. Sherrod Brown (D) is looking to keep his Senate seat, and his primary challenger will be decided on Tuesday.  Smart money says it will be current House member Jim Renacci.  The seat leans Democratic. At the Congressional level, there is one open seat, the 12th, which will also generate a Special Election in August with the same cast of characters. The seat was held by Pat Tiberi (R), a member of Ways and Means who announced last year that he would leave Congress in January of 2018 (which he did) – conventional wisdom says he did so to enter the private sector AND avoid having to be involved with writing the Trumpkin tax bill. “They” say the seat leans Republican (it’s part of the Columbus suburbs) but in a wave year….. Continue Reading...

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