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Category Archives: Republicans
The Trump Ballot Case and the Precedents of Nat Turner and John Brown
On Friday, the United Staes Supreme Court decided to grant President Trump’s Petition for Certiorari in Trump vs. Anderson. However, it took no action on the companion Petition for Certiorari filed by the Colorado Republican Party in Colorado State Republican Central Committee v. Anderson. Before turning to the issues raised in this case, there are two things to note about the Supreme Court order granting review and the petitions filed.
First, in granting Trump’s petition, the Supreme Court implicitly recognized the necessity to resolve this issue quickly. The briefs of Trump and his enablers in the Republican Party (and related organizations) are due on January 18, less than two weeks after the order granting review (as opposed to the usual 45 days). The briefs of Trump’s challengers and the Colorado election official who are in the middle of this case are due thirteen days later on January 31 (along with any outside brief from individuals who want to support Democracy) with any reply briefs due five days later on February 5. This contrast to the normal deadlines of 45 days for petitioner’s brief with respondent’s brief due 30 days later and the reply brief an additional 35 days later. Additionally, the case will be argued on February 8 which is a special setting in the middle of what would otherwise have been the Supreme Court’s winter break.
Second, the Supreme Court did not rewrite Trump’s question presented. Typically, the question prsented in a petition for certiorari is narrowly focused on one legal issue. For example, did the lower court err in finding that the potential for the metabolizing of blood alcohol content is an automatic exigent circumstance permitting law enforcement officers to conduct a warrantless blood draw? If there are multiple issues in a case, the petition will present multiple questions on which the Supreme Court can pick and choose which issues will be considered at the time that the petition is granted. For example, the Colorado Republican Party presented three issues: 1) does Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment apply to the President; 2) is Section 3 self-executing; and 3) does disqualifying a candidate violate the First Amendment rights of political parties. By contrast, the Trump Petition, after noting the ruling (that his actions and the office of President fell within the restrictions of Section) simply asks whether the Colorado Supreme Court erred by excluding him from the ballot. In other words, unlike the usual question which identifies a specific legal error in the ruling, the Supreme Court appears to be allowing the consideration of any potential theory on why the Colorado Supreme Court erred.
Also posted in 2024 Convention, Donald Trump, Elections, GOP, Judicial, RNC
Tagged Colorado, Donald Trump, Insurrection, John Brown, Nate Turner, rebellion, Section 3, Section 5., Supreme Court, Whiskey Rebellion
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The Republican Campaign & the Fear of Attacking Trump
Barring some major unexpected change, President Biden will not face any major opposition for the nomination next year. At the present time, his opposition is composed of fringe candiates who reject most of the Democratic platforms of the past thirty-five years.
On the Republican side, there is supposedly a nomination contest. But in many ways, we are seeing a repeat of the 2016 campaign with Donald Trump starting from a stronger position than he did in 2015. Back then, Trump was an unknown quantity as a politician and Republican voters were simply playing with the possibility of supporting Trump. Now, he is a known and the “maybe” 25% is something like a 40% certain and a 30% maybe. But the constant is that most of the top contenders are unwilling to attack Trump.
Part of the reason why Trump has emerged with only a handful willing to attack him is a general perception about negative campaigning. The problem with negative campaigning is that it has a cost. Negative campaigning is aimed at “persuadable” voters. At best, it persuades the voter leaning to the opponent to vote for you (a gain of one vote for you and a loss of one vote for your opponent or a swing of two), but it is acceptable if it merely results in the voter deciding to sit the race out (a loss of one vote for your opponent). People do not like negative campaigns and such campaigns drive up the negatives of both the candidate doing the attack and the candidate being attacked. If successful, the negative campaign drives up the negatives of the candidate being attacked more than it does the candidate doing the attacking. In the general, negative campaigning works because you tend to have two candidates with enough “certain” voters that even if all persuadable voters flipped to a third candidate that third candidate would still finish third.
Also posted in 2024 Convention, Debates, Donald Trump, Presidential Candidates, Republican Debates
Tagged 2016 Republican Presidential Primary Campaign, 2024 Republican Primaries, Donald Trump, negative campaigning
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The Return of Vito!
If you are a long time DCW reader, you may remember how Vito Fossella was AND IS!!! my all time favorite criminal Republican. Back in 2008, he was the Democratic Rep for Staten Island….and it didn’t end well for him. You can read all about it here. I think my favorite part of the whole Fossella Fiasco was not when he went on the Floor, cried, and explained that alcoholism was a disease, but the people still loved him. It wasn’t the mandatory jail time (which he served.) Nope — it was when his real wife (and mother of 3 of his 4 children) said that if he came back to Staten Island, she’d shoot him.
Vito tried to return in 2010, and it didn’t go well for him at that first bagel breakfast. But here we are a decade later and VITO IS BACK!!! He announced that he is running in the Republican primary for Borough President this June.
Tagged Vito, Vito Fossella
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Trump Impeachment and 2024
Despite hopes for better from the Republican Party, Donald Trump again escaped being held politically liable for his misconduct. Of course, President Trump is the only U.S. president in which members of his own party voted for conviction, but seven Republican senators out of fifty.
There were some surprises in the final vote. Of the four Republicans who will be retiring in 2022, two voted to convict. The only Senator currently running for re-election in 2022 that voted to convict was Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. Given that Alaska has done away with party primaries and will be using a top four primary with ranked choice voting in the general, Donald Trump’s threats against Senator Murkowski do not carry much weight. Of the other four votes, two come from long-time Trump critics — Mitt Romney of Utah and Ben Sasse of Nebraska — whom Trump would go after regardless of their vote and one came from Susan Collins of Maine who has always faced the need to triangulate between being a loyal Republican and the Democratic majority in her state. The only Senator to vote to convict who is probably running again and was not considered to be a member of the moderate/conservative wing of the Republican Party was Bill Cassidy of Louisiana (who like Collins was just re-elected and can hope that six years is long enough for this madness to pass). And like Murkowski, Senator Cassidy is from a state that does not have partisan primaries. He just needs to keep enough Republican support to finish in the top two and then win the run-off.
But the bigger question is what this means for the 2024 election. Not being convicted means that Donald Trump is technically eligible to run in 2024. And he will continue to make noise about running. While the odds are that he will not run, his omnipresence will alter the trajectory of the run-up to that race. While some would-be candidates (like Nikki Haley) are apparently going ahead with making initial plans, others are going to have to wait for Trump to yield the field. Candidates will certainly not be able to raise money from Trump supporters until he announces that he is not running.
Also posted in GOP, Impeachment
Tagged 2024 Republican Convention, Ben Sasse. Mitt Romney, Bill Cassidy, Lisa Murkowski, Republican Party Rules, Susan Collins
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People I Hate Today
Yeah, I know, “hate” is bad….but it’s that kind of morning.
I’m starting with supposedly Democratic Congressmen Dan Lipinski and Collin Peterson who yesterday joined with the Republicans in sending an Amicus brief to the Supremes asking for Roe v Wade to be rescinded. Our tent is not that big. Legalized abortions don’t cause abortion, just make the abortions that would occur otherwise less likely to kill the woman.
And then there’s Kevin McCarthy, who has been in Congress long enough to know that when the person in the Oval Office is going to start a war, PRIOR to launching a murderous drone attack, the Gang of Eight needs to be notified. And I’m thinking about the US Constitution, Article 1, Section 8, paragraph 11, which gives Congress (and only Congress) the right to declare war. Now, to be honest, it doesn’t directly call out “CAUSING” a war, but I think the implication is inherent.
Also posted in Democrats, Disaster, Donald Trump, House of Representatives, National Security, Politics, Rant, War
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The Desperation of Elected Republicans
Yesterday saw a couple dozen House Republicans, including their second in command, follow Matt Gaetz (and yes, that’s his mug shot) into the secure SCIF room in violation of all sorts of security protocols.
We can joke around about it, and normally there would be funny things to say, but this is a new low, even for the GOP. SCIFs exist to protect highly classified information, and in general, Republicans know this. But they are so desperate to disrupt the Impeachment Inquiry, that they seemed to have no other choice.
Let’s review: Matt and friends met with the Orange Menace on Monday and he approved this childish prank (albeit with potentially dire results once they brought their potentially compromised cell phones into the SCIF and started filming) because not one of them can answer to the actual facts in the case.
Also posted in House of Representatives, Impeachment, National Security, Russia
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