Category Archives: Uncategorized

Sunday Potpourri

By tmess2 | Published October 22, 2023

It has been a busy couple of weeks with a lot of things happening.

Let’s start in Georgia.  On the eve of jury selection for the first set of Trump codefendants, three of his codefendants (including the two who were set to go to trial this month) entered guilty pleas.  While the attorneys for these folks are trying to spin their pleas as not being bad news for the remaining sixteen codefendants, that spin is not credible.  A competent prosecutor does not give a favorable plea deal with a cooperation condition if they do not think that the defendant has useful information.  And it is pretty clear that the folks running this prosecution are very competent.

Now, some folks have asked what these plea deals mean about potential federal charges against these individuals.  The technical answer is that it has no direct impact on the federal case.  However, the potential is there for indirect impacts. Continue Reading...

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Candidate Trump — Felon Ballot Access Restrictions and the Fourteenth Amendment

By tmess2 | Published August 27, 2023

We are heading into uncharted waters.  A major political party has become a cult in thrall to a person who may not be eligible to run for president (or at least barred from the ballot in several states) who insists that he should be the nominee in 2024.  Add to that a martyr complex by the true believers who have taken over many state parties, and we are heading into potential chaos for the Fall of 2024.

Of course, one of the complexities is that the national election for president is when the electoral college meets and votes and sends those votes to Congress to be counted.  Up until that Wednesday in December, we have fifty-one elections for presidential electors and more elections for delegates to the nominating convention.  Each of the jurisdictions (states and territories) involved in these elections have different rules and procedures.

Having said that, there are several general things that are consistent from state to state.  First, for the general elections, the parties certify the name of their presidential and vice-presidential candidate in late August or early September.   Second, there is a state election authority which receives and processes the candidate paperwork for state and federal candidates.  For the most part, these officials rarely refuse candidate filings, but they are tasked with determining whether the filing to be on the ballot is complete and shows that the candidate is eligible to run under state law.  Third, decisions on whether a candidate qualifies to be on the ballot is subject to some form of judicial review.  But, assuming that the election authority finds that a candidate is eligible to run, the different states have different rules on who can challenge that determination.  In all, or almost every state, the opposing candidates have the right to bring such a case, but the rules as to who else has that right differs from state to state.  Fourth, if, for some reason, a party’s nominee has to be replaced on the ballot, it generally falls on the state party to name a replacement.  Fifth, for the presidential election, there is actually a ticket composed of the candidates for president, the vice-president, and the presidential electors.  It is the last two or three where the potential for chaos emerges. Continue Reading...

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Supreme Court Update

By tmess2 | Published June 28, 2023

Yesterday, we had three opinions.  The Supreme Court announced that there would be another opinion day on Thursday.  However, the Supreme Court did not announce that Thursday was the last opinion day.  As such, especially when you consider the number of cases left, we are likely to see another opinion day on Friday.  It would be highly unusual for the Supreme Court to issue opinions in one of the affirmative action cases on one day and issue the opinion in the related case on a separate day.  So I would not be surprised if we get the student loan cases on one of these two days and the affirmative action cases on the other day.  I also would not be surprised if we get the other three cases on Thursday and the student loan and affirmative action cases on Friday.

Yesterday’s biggest case was the North Carolina redistricting case and there will be a more detailed post on that case later.    But the big surprise may have been the decision on personal jurisdiction over corporations.  And the surprise was not the result but which justice had the case.  As noted over the past several weeks, the custom is to keep the workload balanced by argument session.  Given that there will be eight or nine opinions from November, nobody should have gotten two opinions from November.  But the personal jurisdiction opinion was the second one from Justice Gorsuch in November.  In Saturday’s post, I projected that it looked like there might be an unsigned opinion in the Harvard affirmative action case.  But now, I am leaning back toward it being more likely that there will be two signed opinions in the affirmative action cases.

And with seven cases left, here is where things stand for the entire term.  Assuming that every justice has at least six cases, Chief Justice Roberts is still two opinions short — most likely one of the affirmative action cases and one of the student loan cases.  Justice Alito is three opinions short.  We expect him to get the Title VII religious accommodation case involving the postal service from April.  But this implies that there are at least three opinions from the affirmative action and student loan cases if not four with Justice Alito getting at least one of those opinions.  Justice Sotomayor is one opinion short — most likely the copyright case from March.   But that leaves one case, the December case on free speech exemptions from civil rights laws involving a website designer who wants to be able to decline job requests from couples seeking a website for their same sex marriages.   If there are only three opinions from the student loan cases and the affirmative action cases, this case should go to Justice Alito.  But if there are four opinions from those two sets of cases, we are really back to it being any justice but Justice Kavanaugh (the only justice with seven opinions).

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Latest 2024 Democratic Convention news

By Matt | Published March 11, 2023

Lots to cover:

 

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Milwaukee, Kansas City and Salt Lake planning bids to host GOP 2024 Convention

By Matt | Published December 13, 2021

Milwaukee didn’t really get its 2020 Democratic convention, but is going after the GOP event in 2024:

Milwaukee’s formal bid to host the Republican National Convention in 2024 came in at more than 200 pages and was submitted last week.

It also talks about the city’s experience preparing to host the Democratic National Convention in 2020, though the event itself was largely virtual due to the coronavirus pandemic. Continue Reading...

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Mid-Summer Hodgepodge

By tmess2 | Published August 21, 2021

The last couple of weeks have had a mix of news that leaves so many possible topics for a post (and some may get a follow-up).

First, before taking their August recess (or in Congress-speak “District Work Period”), the Senate passed the infrastructure bill and the budget resolution that will be the basis for a reconciliation bill when Congress returns.  The House will take up these two items when the House returns.  Progressives want to table the infrastructure bill until the reconciliation bill passes (to force moderates to support the reconciliation bill).  Moderates want to finish up the infrastructure bill before something that happens that could doom that bill.

Second, the House will also be voting on the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act.  As expected, in the aftermath of this year’s Supreme Court decision in Brnovich undermining Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, the bill has been expanded to fix both Section 2 and reinstate the preclearance requirements struck down in Shelby County.    While there will almost certainly be changes in the House, the real debate will be when it gets to the Senate.  The Republicans will attempt to block this bill, and it will be up to a handful of Democratic Senators to balance whether protecting the rights of African-Americans and other minority voters matters more than protecting the filibuster. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Washington

By tmess2 | Published June 29, 2021

Like New Jersey, Washington uses a bipartisan commission to draw its lines.  Unlike New Jersey, the rules for Washington provide that, to the extent possible, the lines should respect geographical boundaries and the boundaries of political subdivisions.  Additionally, the lines are required to be fair and promote competitive districts.

And in a pattern that we have seen in other states, the districts in the major metropolitan areas now have excess voters and the more rural districts are now short voters.  And in Washington, that could hurt the Republicans.  The three districts currently held by Republicans (Third District in southwest Washington, Fourth District in central Washington, and Fifth District in eastern Washington) are a combined 50,000 people short.  The Sixth District in northwestern Washington is another 32,000 people short.  Meanwhile, the most Democratic district in the state (Seventh District — Seattle) has around 40,000 excess population and the First District (north central Washington) and Eighth District (eastern King County and central Washington) have a combined 25,000 excess population.  The only district that is close to being a majority minority district is the Ninth District (part of Seattle and its eastern suburbs).

There are some maneuvers that could reduce the number of split counties.  For example, King County is large enough to contain two whole districts with some left over.  Thus, I moved the part of the Seventh District in Snomish County to the Second District.  And I exchanged some precincts in Snomish County from the First District to the Second District while giving the part of the Second District in Whatcom County to the First District.  Likewise, I gave all of the Tenth District precincts in Mason County to the Sixth (which also has to expand into Thurston County and additional Thurston County precincts to the Third District.  To bring the Fifth up to quota, I gave all of the precincts in Walla Walla County to the Fifth District along with the Eastern half of Okanogan County.  That, in turn, required the Fourth District to expand westward in Whatcom County.  An argument can be made for rearranging the Fourth and Fifth Districts to give the southeastern part of the state to the Fourth District and leaving the Fifth District to the northeastern part of the state. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — New Jersey

By tmess2 | Published June 26, 2021

In the Garden State, redistricting is done by a bipartisan commission.  If the commission fails to pass a plan, it then falls to the courts.  As such, the current map is the likely starting point for any new map.

Currently, the Democrats hold ten of the twelve seats, but the map actually creates six Democratic districts, one Republican district, and five toss-up districts.  At the present time, the overpopulated part of the state is the three districts that contain Newark and the suburbs of New York
City (the Eighth District, the Ninth District, and the Tenth District).  the other district that is significantly overpopulated is the Twelfth District in the western part of the state around Princeton.  All four of these districts are solidly Democratic.  The two most underpopulated parts of the state are the two districts in the southern part of the state — the First (the southwest part of the state around Camden) and the Second (the rest of the south New Jersey).  Given the population pattern in the state, all of the lines in the state are going to shift toward New York City.

As in other urbanized states, the Voting Rights Act will be some consideration.  There are five minority-majority districts (Sixth, Eight, Ninth, Tenth, and Twelfth) with Hispanics being the largest group in two districts (the Eight — in which they are the majority — and the Ninth) and African Americans being a majority in one district (the Tenth). Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Georgia

By tmess2 | Published June 19, 2021

The Republicans control redistricting in Georgia, but the current map gives them several challenges.  Several suburban districts that leaned Republican in 2011 are now swing districts held by Democrats.  Additionally, the Republican have to be careful to avoid violating the Voting Rights Act.  And, as in other states, there has been a population shift from the rural areas of the state to the metropolitan part of the state, specifically Atlanta and its suburbs.  Based on the 2019 Census estimates, the First District (southeastern Georgia) is around 5,000 people short; the Second District (southwest Georgia) is over 70,000 people short; the Third District (western Georgia) is around 9,000 people short; the Eighth District (southern Georgia) is over 35,000 people short; the Twelfth District (eastern-southeastern Georgia) is around 20,000 people short; and the Fourteenth District (northwestern Georgia) is around 25,000 people short.  Of these districts, one (Second) is safe Democrat and the others are safe to solid Republican.  Having said that, the biggest overages are the Seventh District (northeastern Atlanta suburbs), the Fifth District (Atlanta), and the Eleventh District (northwestern suburbs) — one toss-up district (Seventh), one solid Democratic district (Fifth), and one solid Republican District (Eleventh).

Given that the safest Republican precincts are in districts that are short residents, and the most Democratic precincts are in the overpopulated parts of the other districts, Republicans are going to have to look carefully at how they move the lines.  It is possible, however, to accomplish their main goals which are to regain the Sixth District (currently D+1) and the Seventh District (currently R+2).  On paper this goal can be achieved.  To accomplish this goal, Republicans will have to have adjoining districts trade precincts.  A good example is Gwinnett County where you could some Democratic precincts move to the Tenth District and some Republican precincts move to the Seventh.  For the Sixth District, the changes are much more blunt with the Eleventh District moving into Marietta in Cobb County to make up for the precincts that it will need to shed to the Thirteenth District (to allow the Thirteenth to shed precincts to the Third District).  The real problem, for the Republicans are how much they can trust the numbers.  Atlanta is a prime example of the suburbs changing quickly.  And using anything other than the 2020 results may make these districts look redder than they actually are.  Minimalist changes — combined with the current attempts at voter suppression in Georgia — may allow the Republicans to temporarily win back the Sixth District and the Seventh District, but the current trends will make it hard for the Republicans to keep them.

There are certainly some changes to my first round of maps that the Republicans could make which would involve adding precincts to districts that are already over in population and taking precincts from districts that are under in population (with other precincts moved around to compensate).  The most likely option for this would be for the Ninth District to give up precincts in northern Forsyth County to the Sixth District and the Seventh District.  The Ninth District would then get some additional precincts from the Tenth which would get precincts from the Fourth District and Seventh District in Gwinnett County (the Seventh would get some precincts from the Tenth in Gwinnett County).  Finally, the Fourth District would get precincts from the Sixth District in DeKalb County.  With some aggressive precinct selection, my final maps showed the Sixth and Seventh Districts as approximately R+7. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Oregon

By tmess2 | Published May 15, 2021

Moving onto the states that gained a seat this cycle, we’ll start with one of the two small ones — Oregon.  Unlike the colossus that is Texas, where the three major metropolitan area each have multiple district that twist and weave around each other and it is very difficult to describe the urban districts, it is very easy to describe the current districts in Oregon.  The First is the most northwest part of Oregon; the Second is the Eastern part of Oregon, the Third is the Portland area; the Fourth is the southwest part of Oregon (containing both major state universities),  and the Fifth is the northwest part of Oregon south of the First and the Portland area (containing the state capitol region).

Oregon is a mix of good news and bad news for the Democrats.  On the good news side of the equation, the Democrats are in control of the redistricting process in Oregon.  On the bad news side of the equation, the Democrats in Oregon seem to be committed to trying to reach a consensus plan with the Republicans.  More importantly, two of the seats currently controlled by Democrats are very slim Democratic majorities.  In other words, the Democrats option in Oregon is between having three toss-up districts or having two lean Democratic districts and one lean Republican district.

Given these interests, I could see the Fifth moving toward the northeast (taking excess from the First and Third.  The northwestern part of the Second, and the eastern part of the Third and the Fifth would be the core of a new Sixth District.  Most of the western part of the Fifth would get transferred to the Fourth district which would lose its eastern and southern part (basically becoming a very small district to the southwest of Portland).  Basically, the new Sixth would stretch from just east of Portland down to the southwest coast wrapping around the other five districts in a very weird shape.  While it is probably possible to do some additional adjustments, these are the breakdowns that I got (noted there were some third party votes:  First — Democrats 57.4%, Republicans 38.1% (down from approximately 65% Democrats); Second — Democrats 32.2%, Republicans 64.0% (up from approximately 58% Republican); Third — Democrats 71.8%, Republicans 24.6% (down from approximately 75%); Fourth — Democrats 54.4%, Republicans 41.2% (up from 52% Democrats); Fifth — Democrats 56.6%, Republicans 39.5% (approximately the same as currently); Sixth — Democrats 47.4%, Republicans 48.3%. Continue Reading...

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