Category Archives: Uncategorized

Two Views of Foreign Policy

Living in a swing state, the local coverage of national news events tends to get comments from both sides of the aisle.  Yesterday’s opening of the U.S. Embassy in Cuba was one of those events that placed the approaches of the two major parties to foreign policy in crystal clear perspective.

The Republicans were, of course, outraged that we would re-open our embassy in Cuba before they have taken solid steps toward democracy (ignoring the fact that we have embassies in dictatorships around the world).  To them, normal diplomatic relations and normal trade relations are a stick and carrot to use to coerce other countries around to our point of view (with military options always on the table for the worst offenders).  Change only comes in response to persistent U.S. efforts to force change or the other side cracking under economic pressure.

The Democrats, on the other hand, note that fifty years of sanctions and pretending that the Cuban government is not a “legitimate” government have not helped.  While there is no need to ignore the problems in Cuba, a U.S. presence in Cuba (beyond our continued lease on Guantanamo Bay which is if anything an offense to the average Cuban) gives us a greater opportunity to interact with all Cubans.  Cutting off diplomatic ties and closing embassies is not a tool to be used as a sanction (except in the most extreme circumstances), but rather is a security measure for our diplomats (i.e. why we still have not gone back to Iran).  Similarly, economic sanctions is a tool to be used to respond at very precisely calibrated levels to specific violations of human rights.  Engagement is what leads to change. Continue Reading...

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CBS says they are changing convention coverage

But it’s not clear at all what they are actually doing differently:

CBS News will overhaul its coverage of the 2016 Democratic and Republican conventions to emphasize participants “on the ground” rather than chatter in the network’s skybox, CBS News President David Rhodes said.

He said his bias is toward coverage of what they are doing and saying as opposed to putting resources into the “air-conditioned skyboxes” above the convention floor that typically showcase network reporters and analysts.

Traditional keynote speeches and other major scheduled events will be aired, he said.

So what exactly is CBS changing? Interviewing newsmakers somewhere other than the convention? Doesn’t sound so groundbreaking to us…

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Opinion Savvy (pollster): 12 Southern states polled (GOP nomination)

There is a relatively new polling firm, founded in 2013 and based just outside of Atlanta, Georgia, that has paired up with the Southern Political Report and polled 12 Southern states vis-a-vis the GOP nomination in 2016. These surveys were completed from 08/02-08/03 and were released shortly before the first GOP nomination debate yesterday, 08/06. For each of these surveys there is also a sponsor listed for each respective state, who paid for the poll. NEWSMAX helped to collaborate vis-a-vis data dissemination.

 

Opinion Savvy: Continue Reading...

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“Canary in the coal mine?” Kentucky shaping up to be a 2015/2016 battleground

SUSA (Survey USA) just released it’s latest poll from Kentucky and the numbers are very illuminating.

Kentucky has a major Gubernatorial election going on this November. Steve Beshear, who is a very popular Governor in his state, is term-limited and therefore, it’s an open-race. In this poll are a number of names we have seen before, so Kentucky is shaping up to be a pretty epic battle and will be interesting to watch.

SurveyUSA Election Poll 22461
Overall, 863 Kentucky RV, MoE overall = +/-3.4 Continue Reading...

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GOP hopes Cleveland debate and convention will turn must-win Ohio red

Well Trump may steal the headlines on Thursday, but the GOP is hoping for something more strategic:

But Republican leaders are delighted by one aspect of the debate: the attention it will shower on Ohio, a state they hope to bring back into the Republican fold in the 2016 election. The ultimate bellwether state in presidential politics, Ohio is the site of next Thursday’s debate because, just under a year from now, it will host the 2016 convention in the same Cleveland sports arena.

“We will have thousands of Ohio Republican volunteers and activists converging on Cleveland next summer,” said Mark R. Weaver, a Republican strategist in the state. “They will be re-energized, signed up and ready to rock.”

Despite the intense television exposure of a national convention, the hoopla-driven events have proved to be poor predictors of a party’s success in a state. Both Democrats and Republicans lost the battleground states where they picked their nominees three years ago.

By some accounts, a home-state convention is a double-edged sword, which may explain why Republicans have not won the state where they chose their nominee since 1992. Continue Reading...

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Polling freak, Statistics and Trends “prodigal son” has come home!!!

Hi, everyone.

I was on DCW under a different name for quite a while, but because I live in Germany,  the old system didn’t want to let me in. Booh! Hiss!

The new system does! Hallelujah! Continue Reading...

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Happy July 4th

fireworks

First and foremost, Happy Independence Day from the crew at DCW to you and yours. Play safe and enjoy.

May your day be filled with relaxation, good friends and cool fireworks. Or however you celebrate! Continue Reading...

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Foreign Elections: The United Kingdom

Despite what some Republicans say (and apparently think), there are limits to U.S. power.  While the U.S. has the largest economy and the largest military, the U.S. simply does not have enough troops to intervene in every crisis in the world.  Similarly, there are numerous ways for countries to minimize the effect of U.S. economic sanctions.  Any significant international effort by the U.S. requires help from our allies.  However, for the most part, our allies are democracies which means that how their voters feel about U.S. proposals matters more than what the U.S. wants.  What happens in the elections in our allies matter.    This upcoming week (on May 7), voters in the United Kingdom will be voting in parliamentary elections.  As things stand with one week to go, we may be looking at another close race that could handicap the ability of the United Kingdom to commit to any major U.S. initiative.

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The Supreme Court and Same-Sex Marriage

This upcoming week is the last week of arguments for the current Supreme Court Term.  The highlight of this week’s arguments is Tuesday’s arguments in the same-sex marriage cases.  Ahead of the argument, a brief preview in the form of frequently asked questions.

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The Iran Negotiations

One of the big debates in Washington for the past several months have been the on-going negotiations with Iran.  The neo-cons in the Republican Party oppose any deal and have managed to get the Administration to concede that any agreement with Iran will be submitted to Congress.  The problem with this discussion on the news and in D.C. is the framing of this issue as a dispute between Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other side.  This framing is completely false.  While the rest of the world is willing to let the United States take the lead in negotiations, the negotiations are a global issue and that fact is key to understanding what options are on the table.

There are two basic facts underlying this dispute.  First, the basic issue is a question of international law — the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and related documents.  Either Iran is sufficiently complying with those terms or it isn’t.  The second issue is that most of the major powers have imposed some degree of sanctions on Iran.  Keeping pressure on Iran requires that everybody stays on board.

Continue Reading...

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