Saturday, February 09, 2008

Prediction of Future Superdelegate Endorsements

WE’VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

We have new friends over at the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies (CCPS), and they have started mathematical predictions of how some of the undeclared superdelegates will eventually endorse, with the ultimate goal of predicting the overall superdelegate count. They’ve focused just on the Senators, Reps and Governors for now, and have a top ten list of superdelegates who are most likely to endorse each candidate:

10 Unpledged House Members/Senators/Governors Most Likely to Support Obama:
Dennis Moore, KS, House
Dave Freudenthal, WY, Governor
Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, SD, House
Mark Udall, CO, House
John Lynch, NH, Governor
Tom Allen, ME, House
Byron Dorgan, ND, Senator
Brian Schweitzer, MT, Governor
John Tester, MT, Senator
Max Baucus, MT, Senator Continue Reading...

Friday, February 08, 2008

Iowa superdelegate slams Clinton on Florida, then endorses her

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This is good. Last week, just before the Florida primary:

Sarah Swisher, first vice chair of the Iowa Democratic Party, serves on the Democratic National Committee’s rules committee. That committee punished Florida for scheduling its primary today, a week before an approved window. Friday, Clinton said she will ask her delegates to seat delegates from Florida and Michigan. Continue Reading...

Thursday, February 07, 2008

What one superdelegate thinks about the nominating process

WE’VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Our superdelegate friend DNC member Jenny Greenleaf from Oregon commented in a post below and I thought it should be seen by everybody.

I am absolutely remaining uncommitted until Oregon votes. Continue Reading...

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Obama campaign?: Don’t contact the superdelegates

WE’VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

There’s a movement out there among activists for both campaigns to contact the undecided superdelegates to get them to support their candidate. Well, the Obama campaign is trying to stop it:

If I may make one comment on superdelegates. We’re all very committed to seeing Barack Obama become the nominee of the Democratic party. Every one of us wants to contribute to make that dream a reality. Continue Reading...

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Super Tuesday Delegate Tracker

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Update: This post is no longer being updated. For the latest delegate information, please see our Ultimate Delegate Tracker.

The delegate counts below should not be considered accurate anymore. They were last updated on Friday, Feb. 8. Continue Reading...

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Obama not cutting superdelegate gap

WE’VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Three weeks ago, Clinton was leading Obama in superdelegates, 165-69, a 96 superdelegate lead. As of today, just over 3 weeks later, Clinton leads 201-107, a 94 superdelegate lead.

74 superdelegates have endorsed over the last 3 weeks (3.3/day), and Obama has won 38 of the 74, or 51% of them. So while Obama is now keeping pace with Clinton, he’s certainly not cutting into the gap as some have expected, or even thought was actually happening. Continue Reading...

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Live from the Colorado Caucus

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From a very red district in Colorado. No matter what happens, Democrats are the winners tonight.

Posted by Matt at 9:08 PM Continue Reading...

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Delegate Allocation Won’t Match Vote Percentages

WE’VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Remember that pledged delegates are allocated in two ways: Statewide, about 1/3 of the pledged delegates, and by Congressional District, about 2/3 of the pledged delegates. The statewide delegates will be allocated fairly close to the statewide vote percentages, since there will not be a 3rd candidate breaking the 15% threshold.

But the Congressional District allocation is very different: Continue Reading...