Monthly Archives: July 2015

The Republican Clown Bus Rides Again

Next week, Fox News will decide on the initial GOP presidential field. Further on, the Koch Brothers will make their selection. Super PACs and Dark Money will weigh in also. It should not really be surprising that the least important decision-makers are the actual voters.

Think about it: the first candidate introduction to most voters will be next Thursday’s debate, and it is a media outlet making the decision about who shows up on stage. Not voters. Not the party. Fox News. It says a lot that the party itself has absolved itself from picking candidates. And as for the voters who will eventually make the decision? The ones who get polled? The database that is used to track them is owned by the Koch brothers via a data mining company called i360. Their data is far more detailed and complete than that of the RNC. (Source). After the jump – how the candidates ended up where they are.

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Polling freak, Statistics and Trends “prodigal son” has come home!!!

Hi, everyone.

I was on DCW under a different name for quite a while, but because I live in Germany,  the old system didn’t want to let me in. Booh! Hiss!

The new system does! Hallelujah! Continue Reading...

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Supreme Court by the Numbers and the 2016 Election

Wrapping up the 2014-15 Supreme Court Term, the most significant number is four.  That is the number of Justices who are over 75.  Justice Ginsburg is 82; Justices Scalia and Kennedy are 79; and Justice Breyer will turn 77 in August.  While Justice Stevens did not retire until he was 90, it is more likely than not that these four Justices will retire soon.  Given that this group of four is split 2-2 between the conservative wing of the Supreme Court and the liberal wing of the Supreme Court (and Justice Thomas, the next oldest Justice is ten years younger than Justice Breyer), control of the Supreme Court for the next decade may depend upon what happens in the 2016 election.

The next key number is 30 out of 66.  That is the number of cases that were decided by a 6-3 or a 5-4 vote.  With almost half of the cases from this term within two votes of swinging the other way, moving from a 5-4 Republican majority to a 7-2 Republican majority or a 6-3 Democratic majority could alter a lot of the decisions in these close cases or result in additional cases firming up the rule recognized this past term.

Next is 13 out of 19.  That is the number of 5-4 decisions in which Justice Kennedy was the deciding vote in what was otherwise a 4-4 split between the more conservative Justices and the more liberal Justices.  (Justice Kennedy went with the liberals 8 times and the conservatives 5 times.) Continue Reading...

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Republican Convention one year away

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Supreme Court and Free Speech

One of the broad themes of the Roberts Court has been an expansive interpretation of free speech rights (best exemplified by its campaign finance cases).  Over the past seven terms, the Supreme Court has heard twenty-four cases with some free speech aspect.  Despite the public perception, the Supreme Court has not uniformly held in favor of free speech (free speech only having clear wins in 14 of the twenty-four cases and partial wins in 2 of the twenty-four cases).  This term, however, was the roughest term for free speech advocates since at least 2009.

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Civil Rights and the Supreme Court

Depending on how you define a civil rights case, this past term was, at least, on the surface a very good year for civil rights groups.  I say on the surface because some of the “wins” were only partial wins.  Of the cases most viewed as “civil rights” cases, the side seeking to protect/expand civil rights won 4-6 cases and the only loss was on a procedural issue.

It was a particularly good year if your claim involved religious discrimination.  In Holt v. Hobbs, the Supreme Court found (in a rare win for an inmate) that Arkansas had to permit an inmate to have a half-inch beard under the Religious Land Use and Institutionalized Persons Act.  In E.E.O.C. v. Abercrombie & Fitch, the Supreme Court held that a person suing an employer for religious discrimination need only show that the employer’s perception of the possibility that the prospective employee would need a religious accommodation was one of the factors behind the decision to not hire that person.  (In this case, the applicant was a female Muslim who wore a hijab to the interview.  While the applicant’s religious beliefs were not expressly discussed during the interview, the store declined to hire her based on the belief that she would want an exemption from the company’s policy that employees could not wear any head covering.)

In a very technical decision, in two companion cases out of Alabama, the Supreme Court indicated that — even though preclearance is no longer required — the rules against a racial gerrymander of legislative districts will still have bite.  This case has already had a cascading effect on other reviews of the lines drawn for the 2012-20 elections.  Of course,  the fact that we are on the eve of the third round of elections under these lines is one of the reason why pre-clearance was such a big deal. Continue Reading...

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Discrimination and Affirmative Action: SCOTUS Takes Another Case

The Supremes have agreed to rehear Fisher v Texas in the upcoming term. The  version you’ll hear is that Abigail Fisher sued the University of Texas, Austin on the grounds that she was refused entry because she was white, thus a reverse-discrimination claim. The larger issue is race-based admissions, or affirmative action.

Actually, that’s not what this case is about, not even close. Abigail Fisher is a cute, young white woman chosen to be the face of a suit paid for by Edward Blum, who’d been looking for someone like Fisher for a number of years.

Abigail Fisher didn’t get into UT-Austin NOT because of the colour of her skin, but because her grades weren’t good enough. She ended up at the University of Louisiana, graduated, is gainfully employed and all she really wants is the hundred dollars she spent on application fees. Full story after the jump.
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Self-Evident Truths: 1776 and 2015

“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness.”  To paraphrase the Reverend Martin Luther King, Jr., despite this strong affirmation of basic principles of government in the Declaration of Independence, the practice of these basis principles by the United States has been somewhat schizophrenic.

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Happy July 4th

fireworks

First and foremost, Happy Independence Day from the crew at DCW to you and yours. Play safe and enjoy.

May your day be filled with relaxation, good friends and cool fireworks. Or however you celebrate! Continue Reading...

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