Monthly Archives: August 2015

Opinion Savvy (pollster): 12 Southern states polled (GOP nomination)

By Statistikhengst | Published August 7, 2015

There is a relatively new polling firm, founded in 2013 and based just outside of Atlanta, Georgia, that has paired up with the Southern Political Report and polled 12 Southern states vis-a-vis the GOP nomination in 2016. These surveys were completed from 08/02-08/03 and were released shortly before the first GOP nomination debate yesterday, 08/06. For each of these surveys there is also a sponsor listed for each respective state, who paid for the poll. NEWSMAX helped to collaborate vis-a-vis data dissemination.

 

Opinion Savvy: Continue Reading...

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Final Thoughts on the GOP Kick-Off Debates

By DocJess | Published August 7, 2015

The Conventional Wisdom says that Carly Fiorina won the happy hour debate. And she did IF and ONLY IF you believe that she ran HP successfully and that she has been spending the ensuing years traveling the world making friends with heads of government.

As for the 9 pm main event? I’m pretty sure that debate was won by Bernie Sanders.

Details after the jump. Continue Reading...

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GOP Main Event: First Debate with The Donald

By DocJess | Published August 6, 2015

Will be commenting both at our Facebook site here, or follow the comments on Twitter at @DocJessDCW.  Full recap will be posted either tonight, or by sun up tomorrow if I can’t stop banging my head against the wall. Popcorn’s ready!

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The First GOP Debate: A Recap

By DocJess | Published August 6, 2015

I am confused. I had thought that “a debate” was where there was a topic, the debaters made points, challenged other people’s points and interacted with one another. That wasn’t this. This was two polished white-toothed, well-coiffed Foxites asking polite questions and getting the answer “America can be great again” along with a recap of someone’s delusional recollection of how he/she has spent the past few years.

You can read the full recap with quotes (from the bottom up) on our Facebook feed here.

Mostly though — each of the governors believes his state is a better place based on what he’s done. All seven believe that Hillary Clinton is bad, America is on the decline, we need to fight ISIS and jobs would be good. Continue Reading...

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GOP Cocktail Hour Debate Live Blog

By DocJess | Published August 6, 2015

You can catch the live blog at our Facebook site here, and we’ll be back with analysis after it’s over. And then we’ll be back at 9 for the main event.

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Minnesota: possible first crack in the “Blue Wall”?

By Statistikhengst | Published August 5, 2015
PPP (D) released a poll from the great state of Minnesota with numbers that, for the first time, really surprised me and should cause us to reflect maybe a little bit. For some reason, the data was just too much for word-press to handle and so, for the sake of cleanliness and simplicity, I am going to link  directly to my politics blog-posting over this.

Lots of very interesting data for there, hope you all enjoy.

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“Canary in the coal mine?” Kentucky shaping up to be a 2015/2016 battleground

By Statistikhengst | Published August 4, 2015

SUSA (Survey USA) just released it’s latest poll from Kentucky and the numbers are very illuminating.

Kentucky has a major Gubernatorial election going on this November. Steve Beshear, who is a very popular Governor in his state, is term-limited and therefore, it’s an open-race. In this poll are a number of names we have seen before, so Kentucky is shaping up to be a pretty epic battle and will be interesting to watch.

SurveyUSA Election Poll 22461
Overall, 863 Kentucky RV, MoE overall = +/-3.4 Continue Reading...

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GOP hopes Cleveland debate and convention will turn must-win Ohio red

By Matt | Published August 4, 2015

Well Trump may steal the headlines on Thursday, but the GOP is hoping for something more strategic:

But Republican leaders are delighted by one aspect of the debate: the attention it will shower on Ohio, a state they hope to bring back into the Republican fold in the 2016 election. The ultimate bellwether state in presidential politics, Ohio is the site of next Thursday’s debate because, just under a year from now, it will host the 2016 convention in the same Cleveland sports arena.

“We will have thousands of Ohio Republican volunteers and activists converging on Cleveland next summer,” said Mark R. Weaver, a Republican strategist in the state. “They will be re-energized, signed up and ready to rock.”
…
Despite the intense television exposure of a national convention, the hoopla-driven events have proved to be poor predictors of a party’s success in a state. Both Democrats and Republicans lost the battleground states where they picked their nominees three years ago.
…
By some accounts, a home-state convention is a double-edged sword, which may explain why Republicans have not won the state where they chose their nominee since 1992. Continue Reading...

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“IN and OUT” – in double format

By Statistikhengst | Published August 3, 2015

With the official entry of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) into the presidential race on March 23rd of this year,  more than four months ago, I decided to log every official entry into the race with a great deal of accompanying data:

  1. The candidate’s complete name and current political or professional title.
  2. The date, time (when possible), location and method of announcement.
  3. A calculation of the number of days before the GE 2016 that the announcement was made.
  4. Links to press coverage of the announcement, including an occasional yet very telling screenshot.
  5. Sometimes, a screenshot of his/her campaign logo or a video of the announcement as well.
  6. The candidate’s WIKI and also his/her campaign website.
  7. Best wishes to each and every candidate with the same sentence.

I have logged all of this data in one blog posting HERE for all to access freely. But it’s a lot to sift through, so I also made a very handy-dandy table of the most important data, which you can see HERE.  If you go to the link, you will see that the table will be expanded to include the date of a campaign exit (the candidates usually call it “suspending” their campaign, be we all know it means that they quit the race) and the exact number of days that that campaign was officially in action.

Here is a screenshot of that table for DCW as well: Continue Reading...

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2016 GE: Hillary Clinton vs. GOP Field, Part VII

By Statistikhengst | Published August 2, 2015

Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton

HERE  is the 7th installation in a series that deeply examines ALL of the Clinton-vs.-GOP polling to-date. You can also find parts I-VI at my politics blog. It’s a true data-baseline.

By “all”, I mean 1,537 polling matchups to-date, and it’s not even election year yet. Continue Reading...

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