Monthly Archives: March 2016

Delegate Math: Weeks of April 4 and April 11

The key contest for both sides during the week of April 4 is the Wisconsin Primary on April 5.  Additionally, Colorado Republicans will hold their congressional district conventions on April 8 and their state convention on April 9.  Democrats will hold county caucuses in Wyoming on April 9.  The Republicans will hold the second part of their delegate selection in Wyoming at the state convention on April 16 in the only contest scheduled for the week of April 11.

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Rubio requests his delegates stay bound #rnc2016

Note the typo on the first line
IMG_20160330_052640

Update from Matt: Alaska says Rubio will get his 5 delegates back.

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The Rules of the Convention: Part Two — Delegate Selection and Binding

In multiple past posts, I and others on this site have discussed the procedures by which delegates are allocated to the states and how candidates then win delegate slots.  This post deals with the process by which real live human beings are chosen to fill those delegate slots.  When the nominee of the party is settled before the convention, the actual people serving as delegates simply confirm that decision.  In a contested convention, the delegates will have to actually decide the nominee of the party.  In such a circumstance, who is filling those slots can become very significant.

As with the more general rules, there are some similarities between the Democratic rules and the Republican rules.  There are, however, very significant differences — particularly in how the two parties assure that the delegates are actually loyal to their supposed candidate.

Continue Reading...

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Sanders sweeps Alaska, Washington and Hawaii

Bernie Sanders had his best day of the campaign yesterday, winning caucuses in Alaska (13 delegates to 3 for Clinton), Washington (74-27) and Hawaii (18-7) to gain 68 delegates on Clinton, cutting Clinton’s pledged delegate lead to 227, 1265-1039.

All projections are that Clinton still has the nomination well in hand, unless something changes drastically in the voting patterns in upcoming states.

Pledged DelegatesSuperdelegatesTotal
ClintonSandersClintonSandersClintonSanders
Iowa232162921
New Hampshire915611516
Nevada2015712716
South Carolina391454414
Georgia7329118429
Vermont1646422
Virginia6233127433
Alabama4496509
Arkansas221052710
American Samoa424183
Massachusetts46452016646
Oklahoma1721111822
Tennessee442375123
Texas147752116875
Colorado254193441
Minnesota31461134249
Kansas102311123
Louisiana371464314
Nebraska1015311316
Maine817411218
Mississippi31532347
Michigan6367127567
Northern Marianas42592
Florida1417324216575
Illinois797724110378
Missouri3635114735
North Carolina6047826849
Ohio81621619763
Democrats Abroad4921610
Arizona4233524735
Idaho51812620
Utah62722829
Alaska31311414
Washington2774103774
Hawaii817431220
Wisconsin3848814649
Wyoming774117
New York13910838177108
Connecticut2827154327
Delaware12911239
Maryland60351717736
Pennsylvania106832112783
Rhode Island111392013
Indiana394474644
Guam43593
West Virginia1118621720
Kentucky282723027
Oregon2536733239
Virgin Islands613091
Puerto Rico362464224
California26920664333206
Montana101111012
North Dakota51311614
New Jersey79471229149
New Mexico181682616
South Dakota101021210
District of Columbia164242406
Total221818335474827651881

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The Rules of the Convention: Part One — The Basics

Normally, the rules of the two national conventions are an after-thought.  One candidate gains a significant lead in early March and the rest of the candidates drop out.  The convention becomes a coronation and the rules only matter to insiders.  This year, however, both parties may have two (or more) candidates fighting into June .  At that point, the rules may become crucial to bringing an end to the race.

This post will cover some of the basics in the rule.  With the race now entering a “calm period” with Wisconsin on April 5 and New York on April 19 before the pace picks back up on April 26, my hope is to reach at least three other topics over the next several weeks:  1) delegate selection; 2) the running of the convention itself; and 3) what might change between now and the conventions.

Continue Reading...

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An extended GOP convention could cause hotel and police problems

If the GOP convention goes past four days, the logistical problems are going to be an issue:

First the hotels:

The Republican National Convention is scheduled for July 18 to 21, but many party people are “booking hotels past the 22nd and 23rd” in preparation for a contested convention, the source said.

The RNC has blocked out most hotel rooms in Cleveland since last year, but some hotels may not be able to guarantee space after July 22 since they have weddings and other social events booked. Continue Reading...

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Arizona, Utah and Idaho (D) voting today

We’ve got a primary in Arizona (Polls close 10 PM EDT),  and caucuses in Utah (D and R) and Idaho (D only)

Update: The GOP is also holding caucuses in American Samoa, although its unclear if the delegates will be bound to anyone.

Update: Trump and Clinton win Arizona. Sanders wins Utah and Idaho. Cruz wins Utah. Continue Reading...

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Religion and the Contraceptive Mandate

In the Spring of 1990, when Justice Scalia had only been on the Supreme Court for four years, he wrote an opinion that offended both sides of the political spectrum — Employment Division vs. Smith.  For fifty years prior to Smith — in cases dealing with unemployment benefits for Jews and Seventh Day Adventists who would not work on Saturday for religious reasons, with Jehovah Witnesses who objected to their children having to say the pledge of allegiance, with Amish who declined to send their children to school, and with conscientious objections — the Supreme Court had applied a version of compelling interest test to  claims that a law infringed on practices of individual religions.  In Justice Scalia’s view of the free exercise clause, the constitution only protected the right to believe in a religion, not to actually follow the dictates of a religion in one’s daily life.  (Of the other four justices in the majority, only Justice Anthony Kennedy is still on the Supreme Court.)  In response, Congress practically unanimously passed the Religious Freedom Restoration Act (RFRA) which, as a matter of statutory law, enacted an exemption from federal law based on religious belief containing an enhanced version of the compelling interest test.

On Wednesday, for the second time since the passage of the Affordable Care Act, employers will be seeking an RFRA exemption from the regulations implementing the Affordable Care Act, specifically the regulations which include coverage for contraceptives as part of the mandatory coverage that large employers must offer to their employees or pay a fine.  Unlike the employers in the first case, which were for-profit private employers, the employers in this case are religiously affiliated non-profits (including universities and charities).  This case also revolves around the steps that employers must take to claim the exemption recognized in the first case, with the employers claiming that even these steps implicate them in aiding their employees sinful desires.

Continue Reading...

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Sanders wins Democrats Abroad

34,570 voters cast their ballots from over 170 countries all around the world, through in person voting, by fax, email, and post, and the results are as follows:

Bernie Sanders received 69% of the vote in the Democrats Abroad’s Global Presidential Primary, Hillary Clinton 31%.

Sanders picks up 9 pledged delegates as a result of the primary, while Clinton secures an additional 4 delegates. –DA Continue Reading...

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Utah really, really does not like Donald Trump

Could Utah turn purple or blue if Trump runs?

If Donald Trump becomes the Republican Party’s nominee, Utahns would vote for a Democrat for president in November for the first time in more than 50 years, according to a new Deseret News/KSL poll.

While Clinton was only slightly ahead of Trump — 38 percent to 36 percent — Sanders, a self-declared Democratic socialist, holds a substantial lead — 48 percent to 37 percent over the billionaire businessman and reality TV star among likely Utah voters.

Cruz is up 60-32 on Clinton, and 52-39 on Sanders.

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