Monthly Archives: March 2016

Land of Confusion — Party Rules and the Illinois Primary

If you were an Illinois voter taking a look at a sample ballot for the primary election for your district, the two parties would look relatively similar.  Both parties have a line to vote for the candidate of your choice for President.  Both parties also have a line to vote for delegate candidates.  The Democrats have more delegate slots, so you get to vote for more delegate candidates on the Democratic ballot, but — other than that — the ballots look the same.  The problem, however, is that the rules of the two parties dramatically change the meaning of your vote (and the “best” way to vote) depending upon which party’s ballot you choose to vote.

If you choose to vote the Republican ballot, the two lines are entirely separate election.  The “presidential candidate” line only matters for the fifteen state-wide delegates who will be bound winner-take-all to whomever finishes first.  However, the Republican Party rules exempt delegates from being bound by the presidential vote if the delegates are directly elected.  In Illinois, the district delegates are directly elected.  As such for the fifty-four congressional district delegates (three in each district), the state-wide result is irrelevant and the three delegate candidates who finish first in the delegate vote will represent that district (and be bound to the presidential candidate that they pledged to support) regardless of how their candidate does in their district.  Thus, the smart vote is to vote for all three of the delegate candidates pledged to support your candidate.  More importantly, you need to vote for the delegate candidates.

If you choose to vote the Democratic ballot, you are participating in what is commonly called an “open list” election.  In an open list election, your vote for a party (or in this case a presidential candidate) determines how many seats/delegates that party/presidential candidate wins.  Your vote for the individual delegate determines where that delegate ranks on the list.  Thus, on the Democratic side, voting for all of the delegates supporting your preferred candidate is a waste of your  vote because it has no impact on where the delegates supporting your candidate rank among each other.  On the Democratic side, you only have to vote for delegate if you care exactly who goes to the national convention.  If you do, the best thing that you can do is treat the delegate part of the ballot as four separate contests (rather than one):  1) male Sanders delegates; 2) female Sanders delegates; 3) male Clinton delegates; and 4) female Clinton delegates.  Depending upon how many total delegates your district has (the smallest district has four and the largest district has nine), voting for more than one or two candidates in each “contest” is essentially cancelling your vote out. Continue Reading...

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A New Plea for #DNCPHL2016 Volunteers

dnc2016Matt wrote a few months ago about the Convention looking to fill 3,000 volunteer slots. This made sense – close to 5,000 delegates, plus spouses and friends, members of the campaigns, media, protesters, various groups with their programs, rallies and functions. Volunteers provide important input: not just at the Convention helping people navigate between the venues but also ahead of time getting things set up.

But now, it appears that there is a call for 10,000 volunteers. Color me confused. You can see the video here. Ever since I saw this, I’ve been scratching my head about where to even put 10,000 volunteers, not to mention what they would do.

DNC venuesThe major areas in Philly where the convention will be held are in Center City and the arena. No one is walking between the two venues, since it’s about 4 miles, and there’s no guidance yet about transportation off SEPTA. SEPTA runs a train every 8 minutes and buses every half hour. It’s possible that the bus frequency would increase and volunteer ambassadors would be needed at the stations. In addition, the delegations will likely have buses between the two locations. But at the stadium area, there isn’t much besides the stadium, and other stadiums. So, that’s a limited number of necessary volunteers. Continue Reading...

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Who Won Last Night on the Road to #DNCPHL2016?

Before we get into my analysis – what’s you’re take?

Off the bat, I thought the biggest loser was Univision. While the young man singing the Star Spangled Banner, their production values flagged after that. The microphones didn’t seem to work well, and the juxtaposition of both English and Spanish made things difficult to understand. It seemed distracting. The interviewers kept interrupting that time was up, which brings up an overall question I have about debates: who’s voice is most important in a debate? If you’ve got two candidates on the stage legitimately engaging in discourse on a topic, do we really want the questioners to move on? I’m not talking about a free-for-all (Little Marco and Big Donald you know who you are) but a legitimate back and forth – I always thought that’s what debates were supposed to be. The moderators do get kudos for pressing for answers on tough questions, and indicating that sometimes their questions were not directly answered, but…. My other overall debate question is that in this time of technology, if moderators at ALL the debates want to enforce time limits, why don’t they just turn off the candidates’ microphones. Okay, I’m done now. onto substance. 

It was obvious that gloves were off in this session. While the candidates still showed basic respect for one another as people, they were all over one another in terms of substance. Sometimes, though, it was off base. Hillary Clinton attacked Bernie Sanders because the Koch brothers put out an ad supporting his stance on the Import-Export Bank. There is not one person who can spell “Koch” who believes that Bernie Sanders is in their pocket. She also cherry picked little pieces of major legislation to knock Sanders’ vote. Most legislation, barring naming post offices in the House, is huge. I remember pouring through the 3,000+ page ACA legislation. There are often good things and bad things in the same bill, and it’s necessary for Senators and Congressmen/women to make an overall judgement on what is best for their constituents even if they must swallow a paragraph they don’t like. It was very disingenuous of her. Continue Reading...

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The Law of Unintended Consequences

When the Republicans re-wrote the rules for 2016, they shortened the proportionality window — from a full month to two weeks.  That led to several states with Republican legislatures and Republican governors opting for a March 15 primary date — the first day on which Republican state parties can hold a primary that does not follow the proportionality rules.  In particular, the Florida Republican Party (listening to suggestions from the Bush and Rubio campaigns) opted for a winner-take-all primary.  What looked great in 2014 and early 2015, now looks quite differently after last night’s results.

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Not so much of a yawn….

Last night, Bernie Sanders won Michigan. As the count goes (which will be updated) he actually fell further behind because Hillary Clinton won more net delegates by winning a larger percentage of the vote in Mississippi.

However, the exit polls showed that the turn in the rust belt to Sanders was due almost entirely to the opinions of the electorate on jobs and trade. And interestingly, the number of both Democrats and Republicans felt that trade hurt American jobs, by 56% and 55%, respectively.

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Just another primary day – yawn

For us election junkies, this is nirvana – the 4th election day in the last 8.

We’ve got primaries in Mississippi (polls close 8 PM EST) and Michigan (8 and 9 PM EST), a GOP-only primary in Idaho (10 and 11 PM EST), and GOP caucuses in Hawaii (1 AM EST).

Will Sanders make it a race in Michigan? Will Kasich? Does Cruz surprise in Mississippi? Continue Reading...

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Clinton-Sanders: Dream Ticket?

Bernie and HillaryAnother day, another set of primaries. Today, on the Democratic side, the contests will be in Michigan and Mississippi. The Republicans will be in both those states, with caucuses in both Hawaii and Idaho. So what are we thinking about today?

I’ve been getting A LOT of questions lately about whether a Clinton-Sanders ticket would be a viable idea, and whether Hillary Clinton, as president, could just create a special Cabinet position for Bernie Sanders.

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Registering Voters

Vote!Before people can vote, they need to be registered. While some states allow same-day registration and others hold open primaries, some states, like my own Pennsylvania have closed systems and require early registration. In closed primary states, one must not only be registered but registered to the party in which he/she wants to vote. Independents, non-aligned people, and members of any other party cannot vote in the Democratic or Republican primaries.

I was at Starbucks this evening to meet someone and when he arrived, I was at the counter registering voters. He was not surprised, for I AM a voter registration booth!

I work campaigns. I turn out voters — I do all of that, as I know many of you do. However, often we run up against people who say that they’ll do anything but canvass or make calls. And trust me, it’s boots on the ground that create turnout. But often people who won’t work for the candidate of their choice WILL work voter registration. It’s non-threatening, it’s non-partisan, and it’s actually a lot of fun. Continue Reading...

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Not so Super Sunday

We’ve got Dem caucuses in Maine, ending at 8PM EST, and a GOP primary in Puerto Rico where the polls closed at 3PM. We’ll update the delegate counts here as they come in.

8:00 update: Rubio sweeps all 23 delegates in PR. Sanders wins Maine. Looks like a delegate split of 16-9.

Pledged DelegatesSuperdelegatesTotal
ClintonSandersClintonSandersClintonSanders
Iowa232162921
New Hampshire915611516
Nevada2015712716
South Carolina391454414
Georgia7329118429
Vermont1646422
Virginia6233127433
Alabama4496509
Arkansas221052710
American Samoa424183
Massachusetts46452016646
Oklahoma1721111822
Tennessee442375123
Texas147752116875
Colorado254193441
Minnesota31461134249
Kansas102311123
Louisiana371464314
Nebraska1015311316
Maine817411218
Mississippi31532347
Michigan6367127567
Northern Marianas42592
Florida1417324216575
Illinois797724110378
Missouri3635114735
North Carolina6047826849
Ohio81621619763
Democrats Abroad4921610
Arizona4233524735
Idaho51812620
Utah62722829
Alaska31311414
Washington2774103774
Hawaii817431220
Wisconsin3848814649
Wyoming774117
New York13910838177108
Connecticut2827154327
Delaware12911239
Maryland60351717736
Pennsylvania106832112783
Rhode Island111392013
Indiana394474644
Guam43593
West Virginia1118621720
Kentucky282723027
Oregon2536733239
Virgin Islands613091
Puerto Rico362464224
California26920664333206
Montana101111012
North Dakota51311614
New Jersey79471229149
New Mexico181682616
South Dakota101021210
District of Columbia164242406
Total221818335474827651881
TrumpCruzKasichRubioUncommitted
Iowa7817
New Hampshire11342
South Carolina5000
Nevada14617
Georgia421816
Vermont88
Virginia178516
Alabama36131
Massachusetts22488
Oklahoma1315123
Tennessee33169
Arkansas16159
Texas481043
Minnesota81317
Alaska11125
Kansas92416
Kentucky171577
Louisiana181855
Maine9122
Puerto Rico23
Mississippi2515
Michigan251717
Idaho1220
Hawaii1171
Virgin Islands1125
District of Columbia910
Guam15
Wyoming12311
Florida99
Illinois5496
Missouri3715
North Carolina292796
Northern Marianas9
Ohio66
Arizona58
Utah40
Colorado34
North Dakota110
Wisconsin636
American Samoa9
New York905
Connecticut28
Delaware16
Maryland38
Pennsylvania17
Rhode Island1135
Indiana57
Total101456215417328

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Delegate Math — Week of March 7

As votes are being counted this evening (with each party having one contest scheduled for Sunday), time to look at the week ahead.  As with the previous week, all of the contests in both parties use proportional allocation of delegates (except the Republicans in Wyoming).  However, for the Republicans, each state gets to pick their own threshold (including potentially setting a threshold for winner-take-all) and decide whether to allocate all of the delegates based on the statewide result or allocate some delegates by congressional district.  For the Democrats, the key issue is how many delegates in each pool of delegate (district-by-district, at-large, and pledged party leader).  This upcoming week, there will be fewer contests — 4 for the Democrats and five and a half for the Republicans.

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