Monthly Archives: March 2016

Saturday Night’s Alright for Voting

By Matt | Published March 5, 2016

We’ve got a primary in Louisiana, and caucuses in Kansas, Kentucky (R-only), Maine (R-only), and Nebraska (D-only). We’ll update the delegate counts here as they come in.

Update 11:00: Cruz takes KS, ME. Trump wins LA and KY. Sanders takes KS and NE. Clinton wins big in LA

Pledged DelegatesSuperdelegatesTotal
ClintonSandersClintonSandersClintonSanders
Iowa232162921
New Hampshire915611516
Nevada2015712716
South Carolina391454414
Georgia7329118429
Vermont1646422
Virginia6233127433
Alabama4496509
Arkansas221052710
American Samoa424183
Massachusetts46452016646
Oklahoma1721111822
Tennessee442375123
Texas147752116875
Colorado254193441
Minnesota31461134249
Kansas102311123
Louisiana371464314
Nebraska1015311316
Maine817411218
Mississippi31532347
Michigan6367127567
Northern Marianas42592
Florida1417324216575
Illinois797724110378
Missouri3635114735
North Carolina6047826849
Ohio81621619763
Democrats Abroad4921610
Arizona4233524735
Idaho51812620
Utah62722829
Alaska31311414
Washington2774103774
Hawaii817431220
Wisconsin3848814649
Wyoming774117
New York13910838177108
Connecticut2827154327
Delaware12911239
Maryland60351717736
Pennsylvania106832112783
Rhode Island111392013
Indiana394474644
Guam43593
West Virginia1118621720
Kentucky282723027
Oregon2536733239
Virgin Islands613091
Puerto Rico362464224
California26920664333206
Montana101111012
North Dakota51311614
New Jersey79471229149
New Mexico181682616
South Dakota101021210
District of Columbia164242406
Total221818335474827651881
TrumpCruzKasichRubioUncommitted
Iowa7817
New Hampshire11342
South Carolina5000
Nevada14617
Georgia421816
Vermont88
Virginia178516
Alabama36131
Massachusetts22488
Oklahoma1315123
Tennessee33169
Arkansas16159
Texas481043
Minnesota81317
Alaska11125
Kansas92416
Kentucky171577
Louisiana181855
Maine9122
Puerto Rico23
Mississippi2515
Michigan251717
Idaho1220
Hawaii1171
Virgin Islands1125
District of Columbia910
Guam15
Wyoming12311
Florida99
Illinois5496
Missouri3715
North Carolina292796
Northern Marianas9
Ohio66
Arizona58
Utah40
Colorado34
North Dakota110
Wisconsin636
American Samoa9
New York905
Connecticut28
Delaware16
Maryland38
Pennsylvania17
Rhode Island1135
Indiana57
Total101456215417328

Posted in Bernie Sanders, Delegate Count, Delegates, DNC, GOP, Hillary Clinton, RNC | Comments Off on Saturday Night’s Alright for Voting

Iowa Round Two

By tmess2 | Published March 5, 2016

The Iowa Caucuses were over a month ago and the media attention has now moved to other states and other contests.  However, the caucuses themselves were only the first step in a four-step process.   Next Saturday is the second step — the county conventions.  While waiting for result from the state’s that start today, let’s take a minute to look at what is at the county conventions next week.

Posted in Bernie Sanders, Delegate Count, Delegates, Hillary Clinton, Primary and Caucus Results | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on Iowa Round Two

Common Questions about #DNCPHL2016

By DocJess | Published March 5, 2016

dnc2016I get questions everyday about the upcoming convention. If I’ve missed your question, please put it in the comments.

Where and when is the convention?
The Democratic Convention will be held in Philadelphia from 25 – 28 July. There will probably be interesting goings-on on the 23rd and 24th in Philadelphia for those people who choose to come in early.

Which convention goes first and why?
The SOP is that the incumbent party goes second. Continue Reading...

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | 3 Comments

The Pelosi Club is back

By Matt | Published March 4, 2016

Long-time readers of DCW will fondly remember The Pelosi Club from 2008:

This is a list of superdelegates who have specifically committed to vote for the leader in pledged delegates. It is named the “Pelosi Club”, in honor of its first two members Nancy Pelosi and Christine Pelosi.

Well we have our first official member in 2016: Continue Reading...

Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments

Trump and the Future of the Republican Party

By tmess2 | Published March 4, 2016

Regular readers of this blog know that a recurring topic of discussion has been how long the Republican Party can stay intact as it now is.  For forty years, the Republican Party has been a combination of nativist Dixiecrats, Christian Fundamentalists, economic libertarians, neo-conservatives, and the traditional moderate business establishment.  For most of the forty years, this coalition has been a con job with candidates using enough coded phrases and wedge issues on the campaign trail to keep the nativists and the fundamentalists happy at election time, but focusing primarily on keeping the neo-conservatives happy on foreign policy and the establishment happy on economic issues once in office.

For the first twenty years to thirty years this strategy worked well in most places.  The gradual increase of Hispanic citizens, however, is altering the demographics (at least in Presidential election years), making it difficult to keep the nativists happy and still have a chance at winning the presidential election.  (For Congress and state legislatures, the geographic dispersion of seats plus a little bit of gerrymandering will help the Republicans keep their heads above water for a little bit more).  At the same time, the grassroots are beginning to catch on to the con, and they are becoming restless.

Continue Reading...

Posted in Republican Debates, RNC, The Politics of Hate | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on Trump and the Future of the Republican Party

Will Philly restaurants be open past 2 AM during the convention?

By Matt | Published March 2, 2016

Inquiring minds wanted to know:

bars 2am

Posted in PHLDNC2016 | 2 Comments

Super Tuesday Aftermath

By tmess2 | Published March 2, 2016

As always, Super Tuesday — the first Tuesday after the end of the pre-primary window — has done a lot to at least outline the shape of the race for the White House.  Because at this point, the race becomes all about the delegates (and not about exceeding expectations), there are clear tasks for the candidates over the next two weeks.

On the Democratic side, through 16 contests, Hillary Clinton has exceeded her 2008 performance in 11 states.  More significantly, in several states — Alabama, Georgia, Texas, and Virginia from last night and South Carolina from Saturday, Secretary Clinton has far exceeded her 2008 performance turning losses into big wins.  In each of these five states, the swing in favor of Secretary Clinton was in excess of 30 delegates.  In the five states that swung away from Secretary Clinton to Bernie Sanders, the biggest swing was 16 votes (in Massachusetts which was much closer this time than in 2008).    The overall net change from 2008 so far is a swing of approximately 300 delegates.  Considering that Secretary Clinton only lost by 104 delegates in 2008, Senator Sanders needs to find some state to alter these numbers soon.

Over the next two weeks, three states are key to whether Senator Sanders can make it a competitive race or whether he will become a gadfly who stays in the race long after its over.  These three states are Michigan (March 8), Illinois (March 15), and Florida (March 15).  Michigan and Florida are key because of their size and because of the weird role that they played in 2008 that led to Secretary Clinton winning those states by large margins (18 and 26 delegates respectively).  If Senator Sanders is to win the race, needs to gain significant delegates in the large states that went to Secretary Clinton in 2008.  If he can’t put a dent in Secretary Clinton’s numbers in these two states, it is hard to figure out where he makes progress.  Additionally, at some point, Senator Sanders has to win some of the large states.  So far, the largest state that Senator Sanders has won in Minnesota with Secretary Clinton winning the four largest states. Continue Reading...

Posted in Bernie Sanders, Delegate Count, Delegates, GOP, Hillary Clinton | Tagged , , , , , | Comments Off on Super Tuesday Aftermath

Super Tuesday Delegate Updates

By Matt | Published March 1, 2016

Update: 9 AM Trump and Clinton roll. Cruz takes Texas, Oklahoma and Alaska. Sanders takes Vermont, Oklahoma, Colorado and Minnesota, but trails badly in overall pledged delegates won.. Rubio not having a good night, but pulls out a win in Minnesota.

Pledged DelegatesSuperdelegatesTotal
ClintonSandersClintonSandersClintonSanders
Iowa232162921
New Hampshire915611516
Nevada2015712716
South Carolina391454414
Georgia7329118429
Vermont1646422
Virginia6233127433
Alabama4496509
Arkansas221052710
American Samoa424183
Massachusetts46452016646
Oklahoma1721111822
Tennessee442375123
Texas147752116875
Colorado254193441
Minnesota31461134249
Kansas102311123
Louisiana371464314
Nebraska1015311316
Maine817411218
Mississippi31532347
Michigan6367127567
Northern Marianas42592
Florida1417324216575
Illinois797724110378
Missouri3635114735
North Carolina6047826849
Ohio81621619763
Democrats Abroad4921610
Arizona4233524735
Idaho51812620
Utah62722829
Alaska31311414
Washington2774103774
Hawaii817431220
Wisconsin3848814649
Wyoming774117
New York13910838177108
Connecticut2827154327
Delaware12911239
Maryland60351717736
Pennsylvania106832112783
Rhode Island111392013
Indiana394474644
Guam43593
West Virginia1118621720
Kentucky282723027
Oregon2536733239
Virgin Islands613091
Puerto Rico362464224
California26920664333206
Montana101111012
North Dakota51311614
New Jersey79471229149
New Mexico181682616
South Dakota101021210
District of Columbia164242406
Total221818335474827651881
TrumpCruzKasichRubioUncommitted
Iowa7817
New Hampshire11342
South Carolina5000
Nevada14617
Georgia421816
Vermont88
Virginia178516
Alabama36131
Massachusetts22488
Oklahoma1315123
Tennessee33169
Arkansas16159
Texas481043
Minnesota81317
Alaska11125
Kansas92416
Kentucky171577
Louisiana181855
Maine9122
Puerto Rico23
Mississippi2515
Michigan251717
Idaho1220
Hawaii1171
Virgin Islands1125
District of Columbia910
Guam15
Wyoming12311
Florida99
Illinois5496
Missouri3715
North Carolina292796
Northern Marianas9
Ohio66
Arizona58
Utah40
Colorado34
North Dakota110
Wisconsin636
American Samoa9
New York905
Connecticut28
Delaware16
Maryland38
Pennsylvania17
Rhode Island1135
Indiana57
Total101456215417328

Posted in Bernie Sanders, Delegate Count, Delegates, DNC, GOP, Hillary Clinton, Primary and Caucus Results, RNC | Comments Off on Super Tuesday Delegate Updates