Monthly Archives: June 2016

DCW 2016 Presidential Forecast

By Matt | Published June 17, 2016

Welcome to the first edition of the Democratic Convention Watch 2016 Presidential Forecast. The forecast is based on a average of pundit and poll based forecasts. The map shows the consensus view, the table shows each forecast that is used. We will be adding other forecasts as they become available. The right hand column shows a running total of Electoral Votes. Find the state that crosses 270, and that’s the tipping point state. Right now, it’s currently Florida. The more things change…

Remember, these forecasts are lagging indicators They won’t reflect the latest state polls until the forecasts are updated, and the pundit-based polls are very slow to move. (Some had no movement throughout the 2012 election).

State   Cook FHQ NBC ABC WPost Rothenberg  
Update   5/25 6/16 5/6 6/8 5/23 5/19  
Clinton D 201 192 187 201 201 223  
Clinton-Lean DL 103 53 66 61 51 26  
Tossup T 43 119 94 85 95 98  
Trump-Lean RL 27 38 46 16 27 0  
Trump R 164 136 145 175 164 191  
Clinton D 304 245 253 262 252 249  
Trump R 191 174 191 191 191 191  
Avg. 298 310 302 296 296 295 293  
  240 228 237 242 243 243 245  
                 
California 55 D D D D D D 55
DC 3 D D D D D D 58
Delaware 3 D D D D D D 61
Hawaii 4 D D D D D D 65
Illinois 20 D D D D D D 85
Maine 4 D D D D D D 89
Maryland 10 D D D D D D 99
Massachusetts 11 D D D D D D 110
Minnesota 10 D D D D D D 120
New York 29 D D D D D D 149
Rhode Island 4 D D D D D D 153
Vermont 3 D D D D D D 156
Washington 12 D D D D D D 168
Conn. 7 D DL D D D D 175
New Jersey 14 D D DL D D D 189
New Mexico 5 D DL D D D D 194
Oregon 7 D T D D D D 201
Michigan 16 DL DL DL DL DL D 217
Nevada 6 DL DL DL DL DL D 223
Pennsylvania 20 DL T DL DL DL DL 243
Wisconsin 10 DL D DL DL T T 253
Colorado 9 DL DL T DL DL T 262
Florida 29 DL T T T T T 291
Iowa 6 T T T T T DL 297
New Hampshire 4 T DL T T T T 301
Virginia 13 DL T T T T T 314
N. Carolina 15 T T T T T T 329
Ohio 18 T T T T T T 347
Arizona 11 RL T RL R RL R 358
Georgia 16 RL RL RL RL RL R 374
Kansas 6 R DL R R R R 380
Mississippi 6 R RL RL R R R 386
Missouri 10 R RL RL R R R 396
Montana 3 R R RL R R R 399
Utah 6 R RL R R R R 405
Alabama 9 R R R R R R 414
Alaska 3 R R R R R R 417
Arkansas 6 R R R R R R 423
Idaho 4 R R R R R R 427
Indiana 11 R R R R R R 438
Kentucky 8 R R R R R R 446
Louisiana 8 R R R R R R 454
N. Dakota 3 R R R R R R 457
Nebraska 5 R R R R R R 462
Oklahoma 7 R R R R R R 469
S. Carolina 9 R R R R R R 478
S. Dakota 3 R R R R R R 481
Tennessee 11 R R R R R R 492
Texas 38 R R R R R R 530
W. Virginia 5 R R R R R R 535
Wyoming 3 R R R R R R 538

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The Supreme Court and Puerto Rico — Part Two

By tmess2 | Published June 16, 2016

As noted in Part One, the Supreme Court had two cases involving Puerto Rico this term.  The first, decided, last Thursday was the more philosophical of the two cases — focusing on Puerto Rico’s status under the Constitution.  The ink was barely dry on that opinion when the Supreme Court issued the second opinion — dealing with the more immediately practical question of how bankruptcy law applies to Puerto Rico’s debt.

As a general matter, the Constitution gives Congress the power to enact a “uniform” law governing bankruptcy — a process that allows private individuals, businesses, and even government to restructure (and in some cases partially reduce) their debts.  As the fact that it is one of the enumerated powers in the original text of the Constitution shows, bankruptcy is not a new concept and predates the United States.  The Bankruptcy Code (Title 11 of the United States Code) is divided into chapters with different chapters applying to different entities and the circumstances of that entity — one for businesses that just want to wind up their affairs, one for businesses that want to try to continue, one for private individuals, and one (which applies here) governing the debts of municipalities (Chapter 9).

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GOP convention preparations to finally start tomorrow after 2 week delay

By Matt | Published June 16, 2016

We’ve discussed in the past the issues with holding a convention in an arena with a successful basketball team. Well, with the Cleveland Cavaliers getting the NBA finals to a 6th game, being held tonight in Cleveland, the RNC will not get the keys to the Quicken Loans Arena until tomorrow morning, leaving just 4 weeks to prepare the arena before the GOP convention starts on July 18. Of course, the RNC has known about this possibility ever since Cleveland made the bid, but it wasn’t until Monday night’s upset win by the Cavaliers over the Golden State Warriors in Game 5 that the worst case scenario had come to past. (Actually 2nd worst – if the Cavs had had home-court advantage, the RNC might not have had access until Monday).

Basketball fans, of course, know that the Democrats faced no such concerns in Philadelphia.

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Orlando

By DocJess | Published June 13, 2016

no_more_hate (2)This morning on the radio, they were asking for people to tweet whether the problem related to Orlando was whether there were too many guns, or not enough oversight on the mentally ill. How very, VERY, wrong a question.

The tragedy at Pulse has so many root causes, and so much blame to go around. I am struck by all the lives affected: the dead, the injured, their families, friends and co-workers, plus everyone who is LGBTQI. And I have questions. Many questions.

First, I have LGBTQI friends. I don’t think of them as L or G or B or T or Q or I — they are my friends. The people I share a meal with, dance with, go shopping with….just plain friends. I used to have a lot more gay male friends, sadly lost to what was then called GRID, before it was AIDS. I’ve watched the struggles over the years: the hiding before Stonewall, the discrimination, the beatings for having been born. The evangelicals say that we are all created in G-d’s image: how do they integrate their supposed love of G-d with their obvious hatred of those created in her image? Rumor has it that the shooter was “incensed” by seeing two men kissing. I don’t get it. Continue Reading...

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The Supreme Court and Puerto Rico — Part One

By tmess2 | Published June 12, 2016

This year, in a somewhat unusual turn of events, the status of Puerto Rico has been a significant part of national politics — at least at the actual level of governing.  Both the Supreme Court and Congress are considering Puerto Rico’s public debt.  Congress with legislation to fix it; the Supreme Court looking at the legal effect of Puerto Rico’s own efforts to fix it.  While technically these two are not directly related, the Supreme Court is still working on its decision on its case; and nobody knows whether the Supreme Court is keeping one eye on what is working through Congress in writing that opinion.  (The opinion is likely being written by Justice Thomas or Justice Alito).

The Supreme Court also had under review a second case involving Puerto Rico.  Technically, the case was about double jeopardy — the right of a person not to face the same charges twice.  However, there are some exceptions to this general rule and one of them involves what is called the “dual sovereign” exception.  Stripped to its bare bones, this exception recognizes that — under the Constitution — states and tribes retain some vestige of sovereignty.  Because of this legal separateness, two states or two tribes or a state and the federal government can file similar charges against the same individual arising from the same incident without running afoul of the ban on double jeopardy.  However, because a territory does not have the same vestiges of sovereignty, it violates double jeopardy for a territory and the federal government to both file similar charges.  (Similarly, a city within a state and that state may not both file similar charges.)  In the pending case, both the United States and Puerto Rico had filed charges.  The issue presented was whether Puerto Rico’s current status made it more like a state than a territory for double jeopardy purposes.

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Delegate Math — Week of June 13

By tmess2 | Published June 11, 2016

The end is finally here.

On the Republican side, the voting is over and the only delegate selection still to come is the South Dakota state convention starting on June 24.  Depending upon which count you use, Trump has slightly over 1,440 delegates who are bound to him by current Republican Party rules (and another 80 who are officially uncommitted who have pledged to support him).  Of course, every time Trump opens his mouth, some senior figure in the party begins longingly considering the power of the Rules Committee and the Convention to change those rules.  Whether Trump has enough loyal delegates to survive himself is unclear (and it is unlikely that the Republicans would take this extreme step), but Trump is the exact type of candidate who would justify throwing the rules out the window to save the party.

The Democratic side still has a little more work to do.  With the caveat that the count in California is not yet final, Secretary Clinton currently has around 2,180 pledged delegates to 1,797 delegates for Senator Sanders — a clear majority of pledged delegates (even if Sanders wins every delegate still theoretically up for grabs, he would still be approximately 300 delegates behind Secretary Clinton). Continue Reading...

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Both conventions still working to raise money

By Matt | Published June 8, 2016

Both the Republican and Democratic national political conventions remain short of their fundraising goals, as organizers have grappled with calls for corporate boycotts of the Republican gathering and Democrats coped with a protracted nomination battle.

Each committee is working to raise more than $60 million.

The host committee for the Republican gathering in Cleveland has collected roughly $56.5 million, said David Gilbert, its president and CEO. That puts the committee about $7.5 short of the $64 million it must collect for the July 18-21 event. Continue Reading...

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AP declares Clinton presumptive nominee

By Matt | Published June 6, 2016

We expected this Tuesday evening, but it’s finally here, tonight:

Hillary Clinton has earned enough delegates to become the presumptive Democratic nominee, making her the first woman ever to win a major party nomination, the Associated Press reported on Monday night.

A combination of pledged and superdelegates put Clinton over the mark in her contest against Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, according to the AP count. The news agency spent the day surveying superdelegates and updated its figures with those who said they were “unequivocally” for Clinton, according to AP Political Editor David Scott.

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Delegate Math Week of June 6 — Part 2 (California)

By tmess2 | Published June 5, 2016

As discussed in part 1, the math in both parties has been relentless.  After last night’s results in the U. S. Virgin Islands, the Greenpapers has Clinton only 85 votes short of clinching the nomination in its “soft” count.  Barring a large number of superdelegates endorsing Clinton over the next forty-eight hours, today’s primary in Puerto Rico does not have enough delegates at stake (60 total) to put Clinton over the top, but the states discussed in Part 1 (New Jersey, South Dakota, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Montana) have more than enough delegates to put Clinton over the top.  Sanders is urging the media to remember that superdelegates can change their minds and depart from past practice by not declaring Clinton the nominee unless she wins enough pledged delegates to put her over the top (almost impossible).

With so few contests left, it is all but certain that Clinton will win the pledged delegate count.   Even the attempt to win additional delegates in the later stages of caucus states is not going well.  While the Washington Democratic Party has only posted the names of the delegates elected by the Congressional Districts (not the candidates that they are supporting), they have announced the allocation for the state-wide delegates (which is based on the breakdown of the Congressional District delegates).  Based on that allocation, Clinton won between 17 and 19 delegates at the Congressional District level (post-precinct caucus estimates had her winning 18).    In the other states that have already held first-tier caucuses, there are only 48 delegates still at stake (with Sanders having a 28-20 advantage).    (6-2 in Idaho, 7-8 in Iowa, and 15-10 in Nebraska).  Gaining more than five delegates from these states is unlikely, and adding it to the potential gain of 1 in Washington, Clinton would still have a 261 delegate lead heading into Puerto Rico.  Since for reasons discussed previously, Sanders is probably going to have a net loss of delegates between Puerto Rico and the other states on Tuesday, Sander’s outside hope of significantly closing that gap come down to California.

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Gender Identity, Bathrooms and the Courts

By tmess2 | Published June 4, 2016

In recent weeks, the issue of gender identity as it applies to bathrooms in public schools has been in the news.  In particular, as the U.S. government has taken a position on this issue, certain (Republican-controlled) states have objected to the government’s position.  This objection (at least in the media) has not been on the merits — should students who identify as a different gender than their biological gender use the bathroom of their preferred gender identity or their biological gender — but rather attacking the federal government even taking a position.  This attack is both historically flawed and misrepresents what is taking place.

The history part of this discussion requires going back to 1865.  The United States government had just won the Civil War.  As part of the executive plan for reconstruction, the southern states had to abolish slavery, but otherwise were generally allowed to re-form their government with few restrictions.  These newly re-formed governments promptly enacted new legislation to greatly restrict the freedom of the former slaves.  In response, Congress passed a series of statutes and then proposed a new constitutional amendment (which became the Fourteenth Amendment) guaranteeing equal protection of the laws to all residents and authorizing Congress to pass legislation to enforce that guarantee.

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