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Monthly Archives: June 2018
Houston, Miami Beach and Milwaukee remain for 2020 Democratic National Convention
Lot’s of news on the 2020 convention host city front this week. Let’s recap:
In May, CNN reported that eight cities had originally bid for the 2020 convention:
The DNC sent requests for proposals to a host of cities and received responses from eight: Atlanta; Birmingham, Alabama; Denver; Houston; Miami Beach; Milwaukee; New York; and San Francisco.
Posted in DNC
Tagged 2008 Democratic National Convention, 2012 Democratic National Convention
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Sound and Fury Signifying ? — The Partisan Gerrymander Cases
Ever since Trump was elected, I have almost been expecting some cheeky director to do a revival of Evita, the Andrew Lloyd Webber & Tim Rice musical from the late 70’s about Eva Peron with one not so subtle change to the wardrobe of the cast — specifically having the Peronists wearing t-shirts saying “Make Argentina Great Again.” At times, our current president seems almost a parody version of the musical with Juan and Eva Peron merged into one person.
Now what does Evita have to do with the Supreme Court cases from this term on partisan gerrymandering (and other election law cases). Kindly turn your attention to the closing number of Act One, “A New Argentina.” Amidst many Trump-like pledges to restore Argentina and place the workers first, we have this wonderful verse from Che, commenting on the Peronist tactics: “How annoying that they have to fight elections for their cause. The inconvenience, having to get a majority. If normal methods of persuasion fail to win them applause, there are other ways of establishing authority.”
In the post-2010 era, a combination of voter suppression tactics (see the many disputes about purging the voter rolls and requiring ID and proof of citizenship to vote) and the modern form of gerrymandering create a situation in which one party can have the support of the majority of adult citizens but the other party can steal maintain control of the government. If the concepts of a democracy and a “republican form of government” mean anything, it means that a simple majority should be enough to determine who wins control of a state legislative house or the U.S. House of Representatives.
Posted in Elections, Judicial
Tagged Equal Protection, Partisan Gerrymandering, standing, Supreme Court
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The 2020 Convention — Rules Changes (June 2018)
For both parties, the rules governing the national convention is the product of gradual change over time. It is a natural desire — shared by both parties — to look back and what went wrong and to try to fix it. The more intelligent members of both parties understand that every cycle will be somewhat different,; so “fixing” something to stack the deck against a candidate is likely to backfire. A perfect example is the Republican rule changes after 2012. In 2012, the Ron Paul campaign was perceived as manipulating the rules to get Ron Paul supporters elected to fill delegate slots won by other candidates. In response, the rules were changed to bind delegates to vote for the candidate that won the delegates. Regardless of how one feels about the merits of that change, the result was that the Republican Party establishment (which had pushed for the rule change) was helpless to stop the hostile takeover of the Republican Party by Donald Trump.
After the last convention (following past practice), the Democratic Party appointed a commission (the Unity Reform Commission) to study the rules and suggest changes in certain areas. In early 2018, The commission’s report then went to the Rules & By-laws Committee (RBC) of the Democratic National Committee. Among the tasks of the RBC is drafting the actual rules governing the 2020 delegate selection process and the convention process. Since receiving the report of the commission, the RBC has been considering that report along with looking at other issues related to delegate selection process and has been composing a draft of the rules for 2020. Later this year, that draft will go to the full Democratic National Committee for a final vote.
While the RBC has discussed a large number of changes, the one change that has gotten some media attention is the rules governing who can run. Most of the media coverage has, at the very least, ignored the history behind this rule, and suggested that the rules change is targeted at Senator Bernie Sanders.
Posted in Democratic Party, DNC, Primary Elections, Uncategorized
Tagged 2020 Convention, Bernie Sanders, Rules and By-laws Committee
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Election Law — Supreme Court Edition
While we are still waiting for the decision on the two partisan and one racial gerrymander cases (with less than two weeks to go in the term), we did receive two opinions related to the election process. The first case — Husted vs. A. Phillip Randolph Institute — was a 5-4 decision on the validity of Ohio’s process for verifying the address of voters and correcting their voter rolls by, in theory removing the voters who had moved or died. The second case — Minnesota Voters Alliance vs Mansky — was a 7-2 First Amendment case on wearing political apparel into the precinct on election day.
As the close vote indicates, the issue in Husted was more significant and more controversial. The basic conflict is that federal election law both requires states to take efforts to improve the accuracy of the voter registry and forbids states from removing a voter solely because they did not vote. Ohio basically has a three-step process: Step one — not voting in a cycle (a two-year period); Step 2 — a verification notice sent to voters who did not vote in the last cycle; step 3 — not voting in two cycles (a four-year period) after failing to verify their address. The majority — in an opinion written by Justice Alito — found that the Ohio procedure was consistent with federal law because failure to vote was not the only reason for the removal of the voter. The main dissent, by Justice Breyer, critiques Step 1. According to Justice Breyer, Step 2 and Step 3 comply with the “confirmation process” authorized by federal law that states are to use if they believe that a voter may have changed their address. However, Justice Breyer interprets federal law as requiring that the election authority have a reason — other than the failure to vote — to believe that a voter has moved. Justice Breyer argues that common sense and census data reveals that Ohio’s method is likely to result in the removal of a significant number of voters who have not changed address. In a separate dissent, Justice Sotomayor notes that these overly aggressive purges tend to eliminate voters from vulnerable populations — minorities and the poor who already vote infrequently — thereby suppressing their votes. Even aside from federal law on voter registration, this disparate impact may violate the Equal Protection Clause and Voting Rights Act. While not discussed in these opinions, my hunch is that Ohio makes no effort at outreach to notify voters that these notices are coming and that they need to respond. That lack of outreach and simple experience of recent Republican efforts to make voting more difficult confirms Justice Sotomayor’s theory that this law has nothing to do with complying with the federal requirement that states make efforts to improve the accuracy of voter registration information.
Not surprising for a First Amendment case, the majority opinion in Mansky is written by Chief Justice Roberts. The Minnesota law at issue bans the wearing of political apparel in the polling place. While finding that polling places are “non-public forums” for the purpose of First Amendment law (meaning that the government can ban speech), the majority finds a problem with the way that Minnesota has written its law. The essential problem is that Minnesota law does not define what qualifies as political apparel (unlike many other states with similar laws). While the state election authority has attempted to give local election authorities some guidance on this issue, even that guidance is somewhat ambiguous. This lack of clarity was made abundantly clear during the oral argument in Mansky during which the only conclusion that could be drawn about the current state of the law in Minnesota is that the definition of political falls into the “I know it when I see it” category. Given the broad discretion that the law appears to place in election judges and the lack of clear notice to the voter, the majority found that, as currently written, the law is not reasonable.
Posted in Civil Rights, Elections, Judicial
Tagged First Amendment, Supreme Court, Voter Registration, Voting Rights Act
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California Chaos — Part II
There are two features of the California election cycle that makes things difficult to try to figure out what is and will happen. The first, as discussed last week is its use of an open, semi-partisan, top two primary in which the candidates who finish first and second, regardless of party and regardless of percent, advance to the November general election. The other is how California votes and count votes.
Like its two neighbors to the north, Oregon and Washington, California has very liberal rules on mail-in ballots. The deadline for the local election authorities to receive mail-in ballots is this upcoming Friday (June 8), and those ballots will count as long as they are postmarked by yesterday. In addition to mail-in ballots that have yet to arrive, there are also provisional ballots (and, based on early news reports, there may have been a problem with voter registration records in Los Angeles County that could result in a large number of provisional ballots in that county). In short, we will not know how many votes remain to be counted until this weekend or early next week when counties report to the state how many ballots remain to be counted. The California Secretary of State’s website has two relevant tabs for the remaining count — one that summarizes the status of unprocessed ballots in each county (crucial to knowing how many votes remain) and one on country reporting status that provides information on each county’s on-going updates (e.g. if done, when last reported, etc.). The county reporting status update (as of this posting) indicates that most of the counties have completed their election day vote counts, but a handful of counties, primarily Santa Clara are not yet done from last night.
Because of the late ballots, the current vote totals are a little like highly accurate pre-election polls. We know that there will be some differences between the election night percentages and the remaining uncounted ballots, but it is reasonable to expect that those differences will be small. In a general election, based on past history, we would expect the late votes to lean Democratic compared to the election day results. However, in a top two primary, the issue is not whether the votes will be for a Democrat or a Republican, but which Democrat or which Republican. If the late votes favor a fourth-placed Democrat over a second-placed Democrat and a third-placed Republican over a first-placed Republican, that could move the third-placed Republican into second place even if the overall Democratic percentage in the district improves. In other words, depending upon how close the race is, it may still be too early to tell who will advance. Things will improve over June as the counties send updates to the Secretary of State. The counties, however, have until July 6 to finish their counts. Depending upon how quickly updates are sent, we may not know the two finalists in some races for two or three weeks.
Posted in Elections, Primary and Caucus Results, Primary Elections
Tagged California
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Sound and Fury Signifying (Almost) Nothing — Masterpiece Cakeshop
I knew when I posted a summary of what cases were left for the term, that there were good chances that the Supreme Court would issue a “stop the presses” opinion today that would be difficult to explain, given how many major cases were left and that several of them had some weird procedural issues. Well today, we got one of those opinions that everybody was waiting for, and it turned out to be a big dud that ultimately decided nothing other than the individual case.
Masterpiece Cake was one of those cases that seemed to be major. Earlier this decade, as states began to recognize the right to same-sex marriage and to expand civil rights laws to cover sexual orientation, fundamentalist public interest groups have been seeking to push cases to allow true believers to exempt themselves from generally applicable laws, primarily related to same sex marriage but also to contraception and “morning after” pills. And eventually, they managed to get the United Supreme Court to accept Masterpiece Cake as the test case for this issue. The basic issue as presented by the parties was whether the Free Exercise Clause or the Free Speech Clause of the First Amendment allows a seller of expressive products to refuse — based on their religious or political beliefs that homosexuality is morally wrong — to provide a product to a same sex couple. In this case, the product was a cake for a reception celebrating a same sex marriage. While there was nothing on the cake that expressly endorsed same-sex marriage, the claim was that merely providing the product effectively signaled an endorsement of the marriage.
A problem, however, developed during oral argument. In Colorado, the initial stage of a civil rights case is a hearing before an administrative body — the Colorado Civil Rights Commission. During that hearing, one of the members of the Commission committed a gaffe. In addressing the assertion that the baker should be allowed to discriminate based on a sincere religious belief, one of the commissioners noted that religion had been used to support slavery and the Holocaust. This statement met all of the classical definitions of a gaffe: it revealed what the speaker truly thought; as a factual assertion, it was technically defensible (as religion has been used, and conservative are willing to admit is still true in the case of some Muslims, to support horrendously evil acts); and it is not something that is acceptable to say. In terms of this case, however, it supported the proposition that the baker did not receive a fair hearing on the issue of whether he should receive some type of exemption from civil rights law based on his religious belief because, at least one member of the Commission, believed that religious beliefs are entitled to no wait whatsoever.
Posted in Civil Rights, Judicial, LGBT
Tagged public accomodations, same-sex marriage
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June at the Supreme Court — October 2017 Term
Because the Supreme Court has a custom of publishing opinions in the same term as the oral argument on a case and the justices like to wrap up their work before July 4, June is always an active month at the Supreme Court — the legal equivalent of an everything must go closeout sale. Because during the rest of the year, the Supreme Court issues decisions as the opinions are ready for release, the June opinions reflect two groups of cases. First, there are the cases from late in the year — March and April primarily — for which a June decision would reflect a somewhat normal opinion pace. Even for a unanimous decision, it takes time to write an opinion, and sixty days is somewhat the norm even for unanimous opinion. Second, there are the difficult cases. While sixty days from argument to opinion is a good pace when everyone agrees, if other justices want to write an opinion (dissenting or concurring) in response to the initial opinion that extends things considerably — particularly if the original author revises their draft to respond to the other opinions as sometimes happens.
This year’s caseload for June is somewhat on the high end for recent years with 29 cases still pending. (For now the Supreme Court is just issuing cases on Monday, but, at some point this month, the Supreme Court will add additional days each week. Needing to issue seven cases per week, my hunch is that they will go to two days per week starting June 11, but they might hold off to June 18.) While there have been other years with more cases still pending at this point in time, what makes this year exceptional is the low number of cases decided. The Supreme Court only had 63 arguments this year, reflecting the continued decline in accepting cases. Of those 63 cases, two were dismissed meaning that the Supreme Court has only decided 32 argued cases this year. As would be expected, the Supreme Court has decided most of the cases from argued between October and January — 28 decisions out of 34 cases. Of the twenty-nine cases argued in February, March, and April, the Supreme Court has dismissed two cases and decided four cases. Because the Supreme Court tries to balance out opinion assignments from each argument session, that means that there is some clue as to who is handling the pending cases from the first four argument sessions, but very little clue as to the last three sessions.
From October, there is only one case left and it is bigly important — Gill vs. Whitford on partisan gerrymandering. Based on the other opinions from October, it appears that Chief Justice Roberts got the initial assignment on the case. Normally, that would be a bad sign for those who believe that the Supreme Court has some role to play in assuring fair elections. However, after the initial conference, the Supreme Court did accept a second case on partisan gerrymandering. I can also see a situation in which the majority saw problems with the standard used by the panel but could not agree on what the standard should be. That split would allow Chief Justice Roberts to assign the case to himself but could lead to a situation (like the last time that the Supreme Court considered this issue) in which there was no majority opinion. Or the argument in the second case may have clarified issues resulting in one of the other justices now having the majority opinion.
Posted in Civil Rights, Judicial, LGBT, Money in Politics
Tagged free exercise, Free Speech, gerrymander, Immigration, labor unions, LGBT rights
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Supreme Court Jargon
It’s that time of year when the Supreme Court is about to make big news. A lot of the coverage of the court will include a lot of legal jargon (as well as missing key parts of the decision). Since it’s been some time since the last time that I did this, here is a summary of some of the key terms as a prelude to a follow-up post discussing what is still left to be decided this year.
Supreme Court Term — The Supreme Court runs on an annual calendar. Officially, the term runs from the first Monday in October and runs for the next twelve months. Unofficially, the term usually runs from the last week of September until the last week of June. Because the Supreme Court traditionally finishes its work for the term before the end of June, June becomes a very big month as eight months of piled up work gets released over four weeks.
Argument — If the Supreme Court grants full review, the Supreme Court will schedule the matter for an oral argument. Typically, each case gets an hour for argument (but that may get extended). During the argument, in theory, the attorneys get to present the reason why their side should win, but they also have to answer questions from the justices. Typically, the task of answering questions takes up most of the attorneys argument time.