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Monthly Archives: July 2019
31 July – Debate Continues
We can’t really talk about expectations for tonight without understanding what happened last night. In the interest of full disclosure, I spent last evening with people who, while they like certain candidates, are truly laser focused on “who can beat Trump”. Thus, this was not a watch party in support of any candidate.
The consensus of our group was that Sanders won over Warren (yes, this is counter to conventional wisdom), Buttigieg nailed most of his positions, and Bullock did well. We were split on the best line of the evening, but in hindsight it probably was Sanders saying “Because Trump’s a pathological liar, and I tell the truth.” (Feel free to disagree.) And whether we or the talking heads are correct will play out in dollars over the next days.
The biggest question about last night, going in, was the debate between the far left and the moderates. The moderates needed to land body blows and 90% of the time, they were unable to do so. Bullock did well on campaign financing, and that may be enough to garner a spike in internet searches. Whether it will it get him to 2% with 130,000 donors in the next few weeks is left to be seen. Delaney, Ryan, Klobuchar, Hickenlooper, and Williamson are done. Note to John: PLEASE drop out now and win over Cory Gardener. We need the Senate. Likewise, O’Rourke, who has qualified for September, should PLEASE drop now and for the good of the country, win over John Cornyn.
Posted in Democratic Debates
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30 July Debate – What to Watch
Here’s what I’m watching for this evening:
- It’s an “all white” debate. Due to the draw, everyone up on the stage this evening is Caucasian. I’m interested to hear what they have to say about Baltimore, racism, and how we move forward against a 2020 campaign that 45 will make all about race and the urban/rural divide. Especially interested in whether Buttigieg can get any traction with African-Americans as his polling numbers with that cohort are currently at zero.
- Sanders v Warren. In 2016, the economic policies between Sanders and Clinton couldn’t have been more stark. Now, Sanders shares the far left lane with Warren, and she has fleshed out some of his proposals and presented plans in tandem with some of his others. How will they differentiate themselves, especially as regards health care? Will there be a socialist v capitalist moment? My overall belief is that they both have the money and ground game to make it through to Super Tuesday easily. But only one of them makes it to Milwaukee.
Posted in Democratic Debates
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This Post is Non-Political
I wanted to write a “Sunday with the Senators” post, or at least about the upcoming Town Halls this week. But alas, I was consumed with an EIGHT HOUR course on driver safety. My insurance company will give me a discount if I pass the course since I’m over 55. The age varies based on insurance company and state, I’m told. But hey, I’m into saving money and at the outset it didn’t seem that bad. So here is what I “learned” from the course.
First off, in addition to everything they “taught” there were intermittent pop-ups where you would choose your state, and find out the state-specific requirements. You could click on as many states as you liked, and I learned that NY does NOT have a law preventing you from tailgating police, fire, or ambulance, with sirens, which I had observed many times on the FDR Drive. (I’d always wondered….you can’t do it in other states.)
The thing that was overwhelming about the course was that they repeated everything multiple times. And then they repeated them again. They told you. They put it on a slide that you read as they read it aloud to you. Then they showed you a video about it. Then they repeated it again. As you get older, you have some physical limitations. That makes sense. Whether or not these limitations impact your driving is dependent on individual circumstances. It’s a good idea to check with your doctor is you don’t know about how medications will affect you. Had they said that, they could have saved 2 hours of my life I’m never getting back. NO NO NO — they didn’t do that. They went through each and every limitation and explained it, and then said “check with your doctor.” Yes kids, things like cataracts, glaucoma, macular degeneration, diabetic retinopathy can affect your vision, they don’t need a separate slide for each.
Judicial Restraint vs. Judicial Activism — Conservative Style
When the Supreme Court was expanding the rights of minorities and women back in 1950-1975, conservatives were strongly emphasizing the need for judicial restraint and condemning the Supreme Court as an activist court. Now that the shoe is on the other foot, we are beginning to see how much conservatives really believe in judicial restraint and how activist they are willing to be to get what they want.
There are several doctrines that courts have traditionally used that “restrain” courts from reaching to strike down laws or at least from striking down more laws than they should. Currently, there is the latest case challenging the Affordable Care Act. This case claims that, when the Republicans passed there tax cut last year, Congress by setting the penalty for not complying with the individual mandate at zero made the entire Affordable Care Act unconstitutional.
To understand the theory, you have to go back to the decision upholding the individual mandate in 2012. Under that decision, the individual mandate was only constitutional because it was a tax. Under the theory being pushed by Republicans, because the tax is now set at zero, the individual mandate is unconstitutional. And the trial court — accepting this theory — found, that because the individual mandate is unconstitutional, the entire act is unconstitutional. This case is currently before the Fifth Circuit and the three-judge panel seemed likely to affirm — at least the finding that the individual mandate is unconstitutional.
Posted in Healthcare, Judicial
Tagged Affordable Care Act, Fifth Circuit, Supreme Court
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Update on Missouri’s Anti-choice laws
With so-many Republican-controlled states passing laws designed to make abortion illegal, it’s going to be hard over the next several years to track what is happening with each of these laws as they potentially make their way to the Supreme Court. (And the moderate conservatives are going to try to avoid this issue as long as they can.) But I can, at least, track what is happening at the local level.
Missouri passed one of these laws this year — House Bill 126,
First, some brief background on Missouri’s legislative process. Missouri’ legislature meets in an annual session that runs from early January until mid-May (technically, the session ends at the end of May, but all work on legislation must end by mid-May with the last two weeks for the Speaker/President Pro Tempore to sign the official copies of the bills that pass). The Governor then has until Mid-July to sign or veto the bills (with an earlier deadline for bills passed early in the session). The Missouri Constitution generally treats an unsigned bill as if the Governor had signed it. (In other words, the Governor can’t block a bill by leaving it unsigned.) Generally speaking, new laws take effect on August 28, but — by a two-thirds vote in both Houses — the legislature can agree that there is an “emergency” for having it take effect at a different time.
Posted in Civil Rights, Judicial
Tagged Abortion, Louisiana, Missouri, Supreme Court
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Diplomacy and Responsibility
One of the stories of this past week has been the leak of diplomatic correspondence from the United Kingdom’s Ambassador to the U.S. For those with memories, almost a decade ago, it was American diplomats who were the subject of disclosure of similar correspondence on Wikileaks. And that correspondence was pretty similar to the current correspondence — a frank discussion of — in the eyes of the diplomats — of what was occurring in the government of the country in which they were posted. Needless to say, such frank comments do not always paint the host country’s government in the best light and can be embarrassing when such opinions become public. On the other hand, having a frank and honest assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the host government — and what the ambassador’s country needs to expect in terms of being able to achieve certain goals in dealing with the host county is absolutely essential for the ambassador’s government in terms of setting their foreign policy agenda. And from what we have seen posted of the British ambassador’s assessments, they were pretty accurate in describing the chaos that we have had to put up with for the past thirty months.
Earlier today, the British Ambassador opted to resign. This decision followed from the statements of two gutless politicians. First, the tweeter-in-chief ranted on twitter about the ambassador including comments that he (whether he meant himself personally or the U.S. government as a whole) would not deal with the ambassador. Of course, the President could have simply expelled the ambassador. Such a step would have been extreme, but no less extreme than refusing to talk with the official representative of one of our closest allies. And this President has a history of refusing to take personal responsibility for any personnel decisions. The other gutless act was from Boris Johnson, the former Foreign Secretary of the United Kingdom and one of the two finalist in the race to be the choice of the governing Conservative Party for the next prime minister. In a candidate’s debate last night, Boris Johnson refused to commit on whether he would keep the ambassador — a career civil servant — for the last six months until his retirement. In contrast, Jeremy Hunt, the current Foreign Secretary was willing to back his ambassador. Under these conditions, in which he could no longer do his job, the ambassador took the courageous and responsible step of resigning.
On the other hand, we have the example of our current Labor Secretary. When he was a U.S. Attorney, Secretary Acosta made a sweetheart deal with a wealthy donor who was facing potential charges related to sexual offenses (reducing sex trafficking charges to soliciting prostitution). In making this deal, Secretary Acosta failed to notify the victims of those offenses as required by law. Now, perhaps, the deal was appropriate in light of the evidence that Secretary Acosta had. It is hard to get a guilty verdict on cases involving sexual offenses. Even with changes to put a limit on irrelevant questions designed to impugn the character of the victims of sex offenses (some of which we saw on display last fall), it is hard to get a conviction in sex cases. And sometimes, victims are hard to reach during the key parts of plea negotiations. But, especially with that financier back in the news for new offenses, Secretary Acosta’s past is beginning to overshadow his ability to serve in his current position. But rather than accepting personal responsibility and resign, Secretary Acosta is attempting to rewrite history to claim that he actually accomplished a lot with the deal. And our President, gives his typical, “we will look into it” response. Given that the financier was a friend of President Trump and that this issue arose at the time of Secretary Acosta’s confirmation hearing, this is something that should have been looked into a long time ago. Of course, this administration has repeatedly shown an inability to do a decent background check of potential nominees before they are nominating. It is clear that what mattes most to this President is whether he likes a potential nominee and they are properly subservient to him, not rather this person should hold high public office.
Posted in Donald Trump, Rant
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The “Rules” for the Next Debate
CNN is the host network for the July Democratic debates. And today, they released the “rules” that will apply to the July debates. If the rules are consistently applied and actually enforced, things could get interesting.
First, CNN will use a series of flashing lights (somewhat similar to what appellate courts use at oral arguments) to let candidates know when they are almost out of time. My question is whether the cameras will show when the light turns red to make it clear who is going over the limit and whether the moderators will enforce the limits.
Second, candidates who “consistently” interrupt other candidates will supposedly have time deducted from them. Which raises two questions. First, how many interruptions before time is deducted? Second, how is time being allocated to the candidates — if there is not a “total” amount of time that each candidate is supposed to get and those rules are actually enforced, a deduction is meaningless.
The winnowing begins
Eric Swalwell, who was in danger of not making the next set of debates, decided Congress wasn’t so bad after all, and has dropped out of the 2020 race. Meanwhile, Tom Steyer is indicating he may run. We’ll add him to the list if and when he makes a debate stage.
- Rep. John Delaney
- Sec. Julian Castro
- Gov. Jay Inslee
- Sen. Elizabeth Warren
- Rep. Tulsi Gabbard
- Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand
- Mayor Pete Buttigieg
- Sen. Kamala Harris
- Sen. Cory Booker
- Sen. Any Klobuchar
- Andrew Yang
- Sen. Bernie Sanders
- Gov. John Hickenlooper
- Rep. Beto O’Rourke
- Rep. Tim Ryan
- Rep. Seth Moulton
- Sen. Michael Bennet
- VP Joe Biden
- Gov. Steve Bullock
- Mayor Bill De Blasio
- Marianne Williamson
Out:
Rep. Eric Swalwell
Let’s Talk Drugs!
There is a lot of discussion about “Medicare for All” nowadays. Most people don’t realize that “Medicare for All” is not a thing, but rather a variety of different pieces of legislation and plans that work in different ways. They also overlook that close to 100% of current Medicare participants have, in addition to Medicare, either supplementary insurance or Medicaid, because Medicare in its current form doesn’t cover everything, nor does it pay enough to providers to cover their costs. In addition, many Medicare participants have a specific drug plan, or their formulary is rolled into their Medicare Advantage plan.
Over time, I’m going to cover different aspects of changing our medical care provision and payment options, because there are a lot of moving parts, and much to understand. Today’s topic is drugs.
When you talk to people about what they hate about healthcare today, their biggest concerns relate to the cost of things. And at the top of the list of costs are drugs – especially for those millions of people who take non-generic drugs. One of the biggest complaints is about insulin, which you would think was a generic, but well, it’s actually spelled “insu — American-Pharma-Benefit-Manager-Greed — lin”.
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Healthcare, Medicare for All, Pharmacy Benefit Managers
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