Monthly Archives: February 2020

Delegate Math 2020 — Super Tuesday (Part 1 — Early States and Territories)

By tmess2 | Published February 29, 2020

Super Tuesday is always a hard day for delegate math.  There are fifteen contests ranging from a territorial caucus in American Samoa (which given the time gaps will actually be taking while it is still Monday in most of the United States) to the massive primary in California in which a final count will not be available for several weeks.  Every candidate still running (and this post is going live while we are still waiting for the results in South Carolina) can point to some contest in which they might win delegates.  Super Tuesday is also the day on which we will see if Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s strategy of skipping the early caucuses and primaries worked.

As with the first four states in the “early” window,  these contests are complicated by the number of candidates running.  While the states differ from each other, in all of them, there is the question of how many candidates will reach the 15% threshold (either state-wide) or in a single district.  In Iowa (with the exception of the Second District in which only three candidates won delegates) every district and the state-wide results had four candidates break 15%.  In New Hampshire, in every district and state-wide, three candidates broke 15%.  In Nevada, one district had three viable candidates but the other districts and the state-wide results had only two viable candidates .  It seems likely that — in at least some districts and states — three or more candidates will reach that 15% threshold.  And multiple candidates reaching 15% will cause weird fractional issues.  Additionally, the possibility of some candidates getting between 10-13% could allow the viable candidates to gain more delegates than the minimum numbers discussed below.

Trying to do things chronologically, the first four contests to end (not necessarily the first four contests to report the results) are American Samoa, North Carolina, Virginia, and Vermont.  All of these contests close by 7:30 p.m. EST.  Part 2 will deal with the contests that close at 8 p.m. EST/7 p.m. CST,   Part 3 will deal with the states that close after 8 p.m. EST (excluding Texas and California).  Part 4 will deal with Texas and California. Continue Reading...

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Notes from your Doctor: Markets and Medicine

By DocJess | Published February 28, 2020

The market has fallen one Fibonacci, we’re in correction territory. For those of us retired or close to retirement, who don’t have pensions — this can be scary. For the one percent, it’s a buying opportunity. As a member of the 99%, I have found that throwing my 401(k) statements directly in the fireplace is easiest on the nerves.

But I don’t really understand the market, and I am not a source of information on it, beyond being able to quote Goldman-Sachs which announced yesterday that if the market falls much more, it’s a true threat to the Orange Menace’s chances for re-election, so I’m cool with having to live on cat food.

The real problem, and one you need to be concerned with, is that the Chief Cheeto only cares about the market. And there is nothing he can do about it – the Fed needs to hold off as long as possible in dropping interest rates because they’re going to need that ability. They’ll get to zero and start quantitative easing again. The ONE AND ONLY THING over which the regime has power is to stop the flow of correct information relative to Covid-19 to endeavor to convince people that “everything’s okay”. Sadly for the cabal, “the market” isn’t that dumb. Continue Reading...

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What if they gave a Convention and Nobody came?

By DocJess | Published February 27, 2020

Last evening the first community based US coronavirus case was announced. There is never just one. And so, just like flu hits different areas of the country at different times, there will be pockets and hot spots, and then they’ll clear and there will be others.

In China, the first cases arose in November of 2019. (Yes, that’s correct, not December.) It was noticed by medical personnel in December, who were silenced by the regime (and several later died), and not “believed” by the Xi regime until late January, when they began locking down China. It is now two months later, and China is still in partial lock-down. It will take another few months, at least, to get back to full speed.

The difference between China (and Italy, Iran, South Korea and Japan) is that we know it’s coming, and we are learning every day from what those countries do what works and what doesn’t. And we know the best possible thing to do is to test people, and the worst possible thing to do is to place large numbers of people in an enclosed space. Like, um, a political convention with people coming from all over the country, and journalists coming from other countries. Continue Reading...

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Notes from Your Doctor: Preparing for Pandemic

By DocJess | Published February 26, 2020

When not if…that was the word from CDC yesterday, and they’re correct. Covid-19, aka coronavirus is here, and it will at some point be “community based” meaning that it will spread from person to person amoungst people who have not been to any of the affected areas, and were not repatriated.

Is it time to panic? No.

It is, however, time to prepare. Continue Reading...

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Election Security

By tmess2 | Published February 24, 2020

In an announcement that should be a surprise to nobody, U.S. intelligence services have concluded that Russia is continuing its interference in American elections to benefit its puppet-in-chief currently occupying 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.   And, of course, the Republican response to this news has been to downplay its significance.

Securing our elections from foreign interference is important, but not easy.  There are three significant aspects to election security:  vote counting, registration records, and disinformation.

The easiest of the three to secure is vote counting.  And there are several steps to it.  Some states and jurisdictions follow some of these practices, but all need to follow all of them. Continue Reading...

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Delegate Math 2020 — South Carolina

By tmess2 | Published February 23, 2020

Now that Nevada is over, we have a one-week break until South Carolina.  After South Carolina, the pace increases with multiple states per week holding contests (March 3, March 10, March 14, and March 17).  The next time that we have a break of this length will be between the multi-state contests on March 17 and Georgia on March 24.  In the seventeen days between South Carolina and March 17, over half of the national convention delegates will be allocated.  In short, the pace is about to pick up quickly.  South Carolina is also the last state in which Michael Bloomberg will not be on the ballot.

Additionally, as things stand now, assuming that nobody drops out as a result of Nevada, Vice-President Biden and Tom Steyer have both invested heavily in South Carolina as the state where they make their stand.  Additionally, while Nevada was the first state in which both African-Americans and Latinos each have more than 10% of the likely primary votes, South Carolina is the first primary that is likely to be majority-minority.  At least through New Hampshire, the newer candidates have had trouble getting much support from African-American voters in South Carolina according to the polls. If this does not change, the results in South Carolina may differ dramatically from the results in Iowa and New Hampshire.

One other complicating factor in South Carolina is the fact that the Republicans have cancelled their primary.  South Carolina is an open primary state and voters have the option to choose which party’s primary they wish to vote in.  With no Republican primary, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are free to vote in the Democratic Primary.    When we get the exit polls, we will have a good idea of whether a significant number of Republicans opted to vote in the Democratic Primary.  We may never know whether they opted to participate because they are tired of the would-be-dictator-in-chief and want to find an acceptable alternative or because they belong to the Church of Trump and want to eliminate the candidates most likely to beat Trump. Continue Reading...

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Contested Convention? — February 2020 Edition

By tmess2 | Published February 20, 2020

The eleven days between New Hampshire and Nevada is the third longest “break” of the primary process.  So with a little time to spare before the pace picks up (and March is the busiest month in the primary cycle), time to turn to one of the perennial topics of discussion in the primary process.  (Whether there is a second edition this year will depend on how things look at the next major break — the three weeks between Wisconsin and the Mid-Atlantic states.   Every four years, there is speculation about the possibility that the race will not be decided until the convention.  And every four years, by mid-April, it’s pretty clear that the race is over.  So why has this speculation been wrong in the past and why might it be true this year (or why will the speculation go bust again this year).

Before getting to the issue of a contested convention, there is a question of terminology.  Many people talk about the possibility of a “brokered” convention.  Prior to 1968, state party leaders had solid control over the delegate selection process.  Most states used a caucus system with little if any role for presidential preference in the election of delegates.  The delegates elected tended to be loyal to state party leaders not to any particular presidential candidate.  And even if an individual delegate might want to go rogue, there were tools like the unit rule mandating that a state vote as a block (i.e. as the majority of the delegation decided) to prevent it.   So, even if the convention only went one ballot, most conventions for 130 years were brokered conventions in the sense that the party leaders talked with each other and reached an agreement as to who should be the nominee (sometimes on the first ballot and sometimes after many, many ballots).

Since 1968, the two parties have enacted mechanisms in which presidential preference in the primary/caucus controls the vote on the first ballot.  The Republican rules give a little less power to the presidential candidate, but the typical Democratic delegate is more loyal to the candidate than to the state party leadership.  Even that loyalty is loyalty to a movement and, not necessarily, to the personal success of the candidate.  In other words, it is unclear that — in the case of a contested convention — presidential candidates could deliver their delegates. Continue Reading...

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Delegate Math 2020 — Nevada

By tmess2 | Published February 17, 2020

Welcome to the third issue of delegate math for the 2020 delegate selection process.

Nevada is the second caucus state of this cycle.  Like in Iowa, a key part of the caucus process is the opportunity of participants to realign if their initial candidate is not viable.  Generally speaking, in almost all precincts, it will take 15% for a candidate to become viable (except in precincts which elect three or fewer delegates).   Like in Iowa, based on the results in each precinct, each precinct will elect a number of delegates to the county conventions, and it is the count of delegates won (not the raw votes) that will be used to allocate the national convention delegates.

Because of the tourist-heavy nature of the Las Vegas economy, Nevada has two types of precinct caucuses — regular precincts and special “strip caucuses.”  The strip caucuses are held at several casinos for workers who have to work during the regular caucus hours.  The precinct caucuses, on the other hand, basically cover voters living in the individual precinct.  For the precinct caucuses, part of the vote will come from ranked choice-voting by individuals voting at early vote locations.  Like in Iowa, if a presidential contender is viable after the first vote (based on the alignment of in-person voters and the first preference vote of early voters), the supporters of that candidate may not switch to a different candidate prior to the second vote.  During realignment, the supporters of non-viable candidates may switch to a viable candidate or attempt to join with the supporters of other non-viable candidates to reach viability.  As best as I can determine from the rules and guidance published by the Nevada Democratic Party, the first preference of early voters will be considered in determining if a group has become viable — both for the initial alignment and after realignment.  If, after realignment, the first preference of early voters is not viable, those voters will be considered to have realigned to their highest viable preference, but those second preference will not help a non-viable group become viable. Continue Reading...

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Technology and the Caucus States

By tmess2 | Published February 14, 2020

By now, everyone has heard of the problems with the app that the Iowa Democratic Party purchased to aid in getting the caucus results.

First, I don’t believe that there was anything sinister with the provider of the app.  Yes, the company that makes the app has connections to people working for several of the campaigns and the Obama Administration.  But the world of political consultants is rather small.  Political parties need data bases to track voters and contacts in the various precincts and counties; so they tend to have relationship with certain software providers who have divided that type of information.  And political campaigns need that same type of data; so they are likely to have connections to the same consultants.  Some of the features needed for keeping an up-to-date list of voters and tracking the likely Democrats in each precinct (and updating based on canvasses) would seem to be comparable to what is needed to run caucuses and get results.  In any case, the process includes a paper “back-up” that has to be verified by the local representatives of each campaign.  So, while mistakes were made, to support a conspiracy theory, you would need to imply a lot of plants in all of the campaigns in the right locations.

Second, what does seem to have happened as a common tech problem.  As a government attorney, I have seen multiple generations of case management systems.  While the programming is beyond me, successful new systems have several things in common.  After getting the basic parameters, the programmers design a program to meet the requirements.  A bunch of internal alpha testers then sit down and try to use the system.  Their comments on what works and what doesn’t work then lead to revisions designed to fix any bugs in the software and make the system more user friendly.  Then you recruit beta testers from the pool of people who will have to use the system once it goes live.  Again, updates are made based on the comments from the beta testers.  Then the system is rolled out gradually starting with some pilot counties or pilot units within the office.  This gradual rollout allows training of small groups of users and a chance to fix the system when the real world experience doesn’t match the testing.   It may take eight or nine months (or even longer for something going to every county in a large state) before the system is running in every county and every office.  While there are certainly target dates, there are no absolute deadline.  So if things go poorly in the pilot counties, you can take the time to fix the problem.  (For example, when my state went to an electronic filing system for court pleadings, it took three to four years to get to 100+ counties.  And this gradual process allowed the trainers to spend two to three months with court staff in each county and to offer multiple training opportunities to attorneys.   Since my practice at the time involved multiple counties, by the middle of the process, I was used to using the system in half of my counties and couldn’t wait for the rest of the counties to get the system.) Continue Reading...

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Two leaders of Host Committee fired

By Matt | Published February 14, 2020

In case you missed this during the Iowa fiasco last week:

The two leaders of Milwaukee’s host committee for the 2020 Democratic National Convention are out.

Late Tuesday, the board for the Milwaukee 2020 Host Committee terminated President Liz Gilbert and her chief of staff, Adam Alonso. The move comes just one day after the board suspended the pair and launched an investigation into “toxic workplace” allegations. Continue Reading...

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