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Monthly Archives: March 2020
The Tentative Remaining Primary Schedule
Less than three weeks ago, we had Echo Tuesday with six states holding primary contests. At that point in time, COVID 19 was a growing concern. In short order, the party moved the debate between Vice-President Biden and Senator Sanders from Arizona with a full audience to D.C. and no audience and states began to move their primaries to minimize the impact of COVID 19. Now, we have an entirely new schedule for the last three months of the primary season.
Before going into the details of the current schedule, as Matt noted yesterday, there are real issues with holding the Democratic convention in mid-July. Aside from the health issues, there are also issues caused by the revisions to the primary calendar.
First, while the media pays a lot of attention to the initial results on election night, those results are merely the initial results. There are still some absentee ballots and provisional ballots to count (and in the case of vote-by-mail states that number can be very significant). So it can take two weeks or more for the local election authority to finalize their counts. Those counts then have to be sent to the state election authority which has to add all of those results together to get the final official result. In part for this reason, the current rules require that primaries be held no later than June 9. However, some of the primaries are now scheduled for June 23 (and more may join them if the current shutdown is extended). It is almost impossible that those states will have a final result before a July 13 convention.
Posted in 2020 Convention, COVID-19, Primary Elections
Tagged Delegate Seclection, Primary Calendar
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Is postponing the Dem convention to mid-August an option?
As long time readers of DCW know, the party in the White House gets to have their convention second. This is just an unwritten understanding between the two parties, and has been in place since 1936. Convention junkies also know that when the Summer Olympics are scheduled in mid-summer, the earlier convention will often be in mid-July, and the second convention in mid/late August. 2020 shows this perfectly, with the Dem convention scheduled for July 13-16, the GOP convention scheduled for Aug 24-27, and the Summer Olympics in between scheduled for July 24 – Aug 9.
Except, the Olympics are now postponed to 2021.
Which leads to the question, could the Democrats postpone their convention a month to the week of Aug 17, to allow the COVID-19 situation to stabilize? (I would note, they could have done this even if the Olympics were not cancelled, but it was the cancellation that led me to consider the move).
Posted in Uncategorized
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TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS TIP: INSIGHT
Holed up in your house gives you time you never had – those extra hours not spend commuting, nor running the kids around, nor out and about. How do you fill those hours? For me, it has led to introspection, and once those five minutes were up, puzzles.
More seriously.
Before the lockdown, I worked mostly from home, leaving for meetings with clients every few weeks, but mostly alone with my tech. You can see 2 of my 3 computers in the photo on the right. My days were filled with conference calls, working sessions, and enough time to crank out the documents and videos I’m paid to produce. My constant office mate is pictured to the left. Meet Fiona.
Posted in 2019-nCoV, Coronavirus Tips
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Dems start to look at convention options
Political conventions don’t lend themselves to social distancing:
Top Democrats are actively considering a range of contingency plans for the party’s July convention, multiple top Democrats told CNN, including possibly shortening the in-person portion of the gathering or going entirely digital.
The planning, a result of the coronavirus pandemic, is in its earliest stages and party officials said there is no deadline for convention organizers to begin to shift plans. But Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez and other top party officials have begun to solicit guidance from advisers about the future of the convention, Democrats told CNN.
Posted in Uncategorized
1 Comment
TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS TIP: MATH AND NUMBERS
Yesterday, the United States crossed the Rubicon and had the highest number of coronavirus cases in the world.
People are freaking out. They are panicking.
BUT
Posted in 2019-nCoV, Coronavirus, Coronavirus Tips
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TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS TIP: EAT THE FROG
EEWWW — and no, not exactly….
I had never heard the expression “Eat the Frog” until a few weeks ago. It was advice offered to me when I was somewhat emotionally paralyzed by looking at the numbers coming out of Italy, knowing they were coming here, and my inability to “find Waldo” (and I’ll circle back to that, it’s not what you think….)
The idea is that a frog is slimy and yucky and you don’t want to eat a frog. But if you eat a frog, everything else is easy. Therefore, find YOUR “frog” and the rest of the day will be easy. So — today, when you read this, do ONE THING that you don’t want to do. Maybe fill out the Census, or find your forms for filing taxes, or clean your toilet, or tackle that piece from your work project that you’ve been putting off. Just ONE THING.
Posted in 2019-nCoV, Coronavirus Tips
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Delegate Math 2020 — The COVID 19 Break
Barring a statutory change at the federal level, federal law requires that states choose electors for President on the First Tuesday after the First Monday in November. While there are other provisions governing the possibility that states are unable to choose electors on that day and the states are free to change the way that they select the electors, it is unlikely that those laws will change — either at the state or federal level. Likewise, federal law requires that elections for the House and Senate will take place on the First Tuesday after the First Monday in November. And the Constitution and federal law makes clear when the existing terms of office expire.
There are a lot of questions about what would happen if for some reason elections are postponed in some states. Do the governors get to appoint temporary Senators in the states for which the term has expired until the elections can be held? Are the elections merely postponed or must the governor’s call for special elections? However, for President, what happens is governed by the Presidential Successor Act until somebody is chosen to fill the remainder of the term. Of course as the Presidential Successor Act would put the Speaker of the House and the President Pro Tempore of the Senate into the White House, the question is whether the House and Senate will be able to convene as normal in early January to choose the people who will be in those positions if such a vacancy occurs. If they can’t, do the old officers continue over until the House and Senate can convene (allowing one of them to become President)?
In short, while things still need to be worked out, it is more likely than not that some way will be found to hold elections this fall. In the states that currently rely heavily on voting-by-mail, it is almost certain that the elections will proceed as planned. And some of the remaining states may try to transition to a vote-by-mail system. And if there is going to be an election for President, both parties need to continue with the process for choosing a nominee. As others have noted for this site, there are questions about how the national convention will be restructured to deal with the current crisis and how the states will alter the delegate selection process in light of the current goal to minimize person-to-person crisis. (I know that, in my state, the delegate selection process has been postponed by almost eight weeks.)
Posted in Bernie Sanders, Delegate Count, Joe Biden, Primary Elections
Tagged 2020 Democratic Primaries, Bernie Sanders, Delegate Math, Joe Biden
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TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS TIP: TELL A STORY
A lot of history gets lost because no one writes it down…I was brought up by a mother who was a librarian and worked on many oral history projects — capturing the voices and stories of the generation before hers.
Yes, we have technology now, and use can use that for oral history, too. Or you can write a story. Maybe tell a story to your kids. Perhaps capture some stories from those we will lose.
I’ll tell a story – and I hope you will tell a story either in the comments, or on your feed…maybe we can start a trend!
Posted in 2019-nCoV, Coronavirus Tips
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Delegate Math 2020 — March 17
After the sprint of twenty-four contests in fifteen days, this week’s four primaries represents a slowing of the pace. After the March 17 contests, there will be only seven contests over the next three weeks concluding with the Wisconsin primary before there is a three-week break between Wisconsin and the Mid-Atlantic primary on April 28. (EDIT: Now six contests, with Georgia’s primary being postponed until May.)
In the last two weeks, in the states that vote by mail, we have seen the early results showing significant number of votes for candidates that are no longer in the race. As counting has continued, however, the later arriving ballots have swung away from the candidates who have suspended their campaigns and toward Senator Sanders and Vice-President Biden. There will have been some early voting in the states that are voting on March 17. As such, the initial release of numbers will probably include some votes for these candidates, but that number should decline over the evening as election day returns are added in.
With the narrowing of the field, delegate math is now a state-by-state struggle. And this state-by-state battle is different for the Democratic primaries than it is on the Republican side. The media likes to focus on who wins a state. And, in the general election (and in many states on the Republican side), the winner-take-all rule makes winning a state very important. On the Democratic side, the proportional allocation of delegates means that it matters more whether somebody wins a state by a large margin than who wins the state. As we have seen over the past seven days, a narrow in by Vice-President Biden is currently netting him around seven delegates in a large state, but his big win in Mississippi (less than half the size of Washington) is netting him over thirty delegates.
Posted in 2020 Convention, Delegates, Primary Elections
Tagged 2020 Delegate Selection Plans, 2020 Democratic Primaries, Arizona, Bernie Sanders, Florida, Illinois, Joe Biden, Ohio
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2020 Delegate Math — Northern Marianas
While most states hold elections on Tuesdays, Saturdays have also been a traditional election date as we have already seen this year with the Nevada Caucuses and South Carolina primary. In past years, the first two Saturdays after the windows open have been somewhat busy. In 2016, three states held primaries or caucuses on the first Saturday in March (with one contest being held on the first Sunday in March and one contest being held on the second Saturday in March). While the first Saturday in March was not an available date in 2012, the Republicans had four caucuses on the second Saturday in March. On the first available weekend in February 2008, four caucuses and one primary took place.
This year, the weekend after Super Tuesday had no contests, and only one contest is scheduled for the second weekend in March. That contest is the Northern Marianas which will hold its convention on March 14. The Northern Marianas is an “unincorporated territory” consisting of the islands in the Marianas Archipelego (excluding Guam). The contest in the Northern Marianas is a territory-wide convention. In 2016, less than 200 people attended the convention.
This is only the second time that the people in Northern Marianas will be electing delegates to the national convention. My hunch is that, even though every delegate counts, the major candidates are unlikely to put much effort into this contest, and the vote will be based on what news media and social media coverage Democrats in that territory have seen. In other words, name recognition and success in the earlier contests will count for a lot.
Posted in 2020 Convention, 2020DNC, Delegates, Primary Elections
Tagged 2020 Delegate Seletion Plans, 2020 Pesidential Primary, Northern Marianas
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