Monthly Archives: June 2020

Supreme Court and Trump’s Financial Records

As I noted on Friday, the Supreme Court is nearing the end of its terms and has, at least, two opinion days for this week.  Whether the two days will see all of the opinions or some will be issued after the Independence Day celebrations remains to be seen.

While there are many cases that will have impact long after this year, five cases (representing four argument slots) could directly impact this election.  Two of them — the Faithless Elector cases — are about the election itself.  But the other three — involving the Trump financial records — could shape the campaign.

While, technically, there are three cases, the Supreme Court consolidated argument on the two cases involving subpoenas issued by Congressional committees and are likely to issue one opinion on those two cases.  The other case involves a state grand jury subpoena and will probably result in a separate opinion. Continue Reading...

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Supreme Court — The COVID-19 Term (Updated)

In normal years, the Supreme Court would probably have wrapped up business for the term by now.  It has been a long time since the last time that the Supreme Court was still issuing opinions in an argued case after June.  There is still a chance that the Supreme Court might finish this term by June 30, but we are getting mixed messages from the court.  (I do expect to see opinions in all of the cases before the Supreme Court recesses, but there is a chance that some cases could be set for reargument in the fall.)

On the one hand, we have yet to get any opinions from the May arguments.  While the May arguments were two weeks later than the usual time for the April arguments, it is usual to have some of the April opinions by the early part of June.  We also have not seen the pace of opinions pick up.  In the last weeks of the term, it is not unusual to see three or more opinion days per week, and multiple opinions on each opinion day.   At the present time, while we have had second opinion days for the last two weeks, we have only gotten a total of five opinions over the last two weeks (as opposed to the more usual eight to ten opinions per week).  And the Supreme Court has only announced two opinion days for this upcoming week.

On the other hand, the Supreme Court has announced that they will have a conference on Wednesday and release orders on Thursday (rather than the normal Monday order day).  That sounds like Wednesday could be the “wrap-up” conference. Continue Reading...

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What Everyone is Getting Wrong about COVID

The frames for the discussion on how the US deals with COVID fall into two camps:

  • Save the economy vs lockdown the country
  • Wear a mask vs don’t wear a mask

So long as that’s what everyone concentrates on, the disease will not be “managed” until there is a set of vaccines (different vaccines will be necessary for different cohorts) and effective treatment protocols. And that’s not going to be near-term. Until that happens, cases will continue to rise, and will keep spreading, and it will happen stealthily, that is, we won’t know it’s a problem until after it is already a disaster. UNLESS we re-frame the discussion and adopt a program that will work to stem the spread. Honest, other countries have done it, and we need to do it here.

This is the United States, where politics trumps reality far too often. We have no national leadership, and we won’t until such time as the Orange Menace has been removed to the cell he so richly deserves and takes his minions with him. Therefore, solutions need to be at the state and local level, and there actually ARE ways to do this, get the case counts down, and simultaneously keep as much of the economy operational as possible. Continue Reading...

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Dems move Milwaukee convention to convention center, delegates need not travel

It will be the first Democratic convention in a convention center since 1984 in San Francisco, and the first major party convention in a convention center since the GOP in San Diego in 1996:

The Democratic National Convention will move out of Milwaukee’s professional basketball arena, and state delegations are being urged not to travel to the city because of concerns about the coronavirus pandemic, party officials said Wednesday.

Continue Reading...

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June 23rd Primaries

There are a number of primaries tomorrow, also some run-off elections and a Special Election. Some of them are Republican only, and I won’t be commenting on them because I honestly don’t care. For example, some Republican is going to win the runoff to get Mark Meadows seat. Whoever wins, he couldn’t be much worse than Meadows, and will lack his seniority.  (Thanks, I feel better now.) In the Virginia primary, Mark Warner is running unopposed and will keep his Senate seat in November.

The marquee events tomorrow are the Democratic Senate primary in Kentucky, the Special Election for convict (as of August, delayed due to pandemic) Chris Collins’ seat (NY-27) and some of the New York Democratic Congressional primaries: there are 10 of 12 incumbents seeking re-election who are being challenged.

Let’s start with the NY-27th: in 2018, WHILE UNDER INDICTMENT, Collins won over Nate McMurray, 49.1% to 48.8%. McMurray is running again, against state Sen. Chris Jacobs, who was hand-picked by the state Republican Party. Of note, Jacobs was almost tossed off the ballot for voter fraud, but last Friday night, the county DA decided to let bygones be bygones. If McMurray wins (which every well-regarded pollster and prognosticator says can’t possibly happen) in the reddest district in New York State, that would bide very well for a blue tsunami in November. Continue Reading...

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Kentucky Primary and Moscow Mitch

Tuesday is the COVID-19-postponed primary in Kentucky, and a lot has changed since the originally-scheduled date.   And those changes put Democrats in a somewhat familiar position — do you vote for the candidate that most closely resembles your position or the candidate with the best chance to win.

For most of the year, Amy McGrath was the strong favorite to win the race.  She raised a significant amount of money who saw her background (including her veteran status) as potentially appealing to swing voters who will be necessary to beat Moscow Mitch in November.  While she does not have a record, she is perceived as a moderate — a necessity to win in a red state like Kentucky.

In recent weeks, the resurgence of issues surrounding racism have contributed to a surge of support for State Representative Charles Booker.  His status as a person of color and his positioning of himself as a progressive have contributed to this rise in support from Democrats who want to take a stand in the general election. Continue Reading...

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DACA

On Thursday, the Supreme Court issued its decision in the Deferred Action on Childhood Arrivals (DACA) case.  There were four basic issues in this case, and the Supreme Court addressed three of them directly.  There was some language that indirectly discussed the fourth issue, but no ultimate decision.   There were three basic groups of votes — two groups of four and a group of one.  As expected, the opinion was written by the Chief Justice.

By way of background, DACA was an Obama-administration program which allowed some individuals who had been brought here illegally as children to apply for deferral of removal for a set period.   One of the benefits of participating in this program was that these immigrants would also gain the right to legally work in the U.S.  Before the end of the Obama Administration, an equivalent program was established for parents (DAPA), but the Republicans managed to get a federal district court in Texas and the Fifth Circuit to block that program, and the Trump Administration withdrew the program.  Part of the complaints had to deal with the work authorization, and the Trump Department of Justice believed that DACA had the same flaw.  As a result, the Trump Department of Homeland Security announced the end of DACA with a wind-down period established (no new application and a limited period in which participants could renew their deferrals).  Cases were then filed challenging this decision under the Administrative Procedure Act (which governs the process of making administrative decisions) and also alleging other flaws in the decision including claims that the decision was motivated by an intent to discriminate against Latinx.

The first issue was a jurisdictional threshold question — was the decision on DACA reviewable under the Administrative Procedure Act.  The Supreme Court rejected the argument that discretionary policies are not reviewable.  While there is a discretionary exception, the Supreme Court found that — in most circumstances — that exception is limited to discretion exercised in an individual case rather than the discretionary decision to establish or end a program.  The Supreme Court found that, while the result of DACA might be individual decisions in individual cases (which would otherwise be discretionary under immigration law), the establishment of a program creating a procedure to seek those individual decisions was subject to review under the APA.  This part of the decision may prove to be big going forward, but it will apply to both executive decisions that are conservative and executive decisions that are progressive. Continue Reading...

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Equality Maybe?

In a somewhat surprising decision, the United States Supreme Court issued its long awaited decision on Title VII and the LGBTQ community.  There were several unexpected things in the opinion.  Going in the best bet was that the Supreme Court would find that discrimination against transgender individuals fit the requirement that the discrimination was “on the basis of sex,” but that the Supreme Court would find that “on the basis of sex” did not cover sexual orientation.  Second, because of this potential split in the reasoning, there was a good reason to expect two separate opinions, one dealing with the two homosexual employees and one dealing with the transgender employees.  Third, as I noted on Saturday, it looked like Chief Justice Roberts would be writing at least one of the opinions.

Instead, what we got was one opinion covering all three cases that sided with the employees.  Even more unexpected was that the justice holding the stolen Supreme Court seat — Justice Neal Gorsuch — was the author of the opinion.  (Yes, part of me is having thrills of joys at how Trump is going to be able to explain this one to the folks who just voted out a conservative Republican congressman for officiating at a same-sex marriage.)  Of course, the opinion was not unanimous, (6-3 with Chief Justice Roberts joining the majority) and two justices (Justice Alito and Justice Kavanaugh) wrote dissents driving the total length  of the opinions in this case to 172 pdf pages.

Now for the bad news.  First, the dissenters tried to hide their true colors on the issue of equality by painting this case (like the previous decisions in the gay marriage cases) as being about what the law is, not what the law should be.  They even went so far as to express the incredible belief that, but for this decision, we are within years of Congress acting to expand anti-discrimination laws to cover sexual orientation, claiming that the Supreme Court was overstepping its bounds by acting.  (Of course, they failed to identify the reason why the proposed fix has never managed to get past both houses in the same session — Republican Party control of the other house.  See the above-mentioned result this weekend in the nominating convention for Virginia’s Fifth District.) Continue Reading...

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Roberts’s World

We are entering what would normally be the home stretch of the annual Supreme Court term.  And it is becoming relatively clear that most of the major opinions for this term will be coming from Chief Justice John Roberts.

As we have noted in past end-of-term posts, the U.S. Supreme Court attempts to balance the number of lead opinions that each chamber has.  This balancing occurs in two ways:  within each monthly two-week argument session and over the entire term.  For example, if there are ten cases argued during a given month, one justice will be assigned two cases and the other justices will be assigned one case each.  And a justice who gets two cases in one month will probably one get one case the next month.

By this time of the term, we usually have enough opinions issued to have a sense (not 100% certain because it is possible that a 5-4 case may flip after the first draft of the tentative majority opinion and the tentative dissent are circulated) of who probably has the case.  This year, we have almost all of the cases from October, November, and January and all of the cases from December.  While we only have about half of the cases from February (and obviously none from May), the look from the first four arguments is somewhat conclusive. Continue Reading...

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Notes from your Doctor: Surviving the Next Phase of Coronavirus

As you know, case counts are rising across the country, at last count, in 23 states, with 15 states showing their highest case counts since before they shut down. In some places, hospitals are days away from being overwhelmed. And yet, no one is planning on new lockdowns, most are planning further re-openings. To be fair, Oregon and Utah are pausing moving forward.

There is no national policy on what to do, nor how to handle things, so states are left on their own. In some states, governors say things like “we expected that there would be more cases” as hospitals implement emergency plans. That gem is courtesy of Doug Ducey of Arizona. In addition, if you are one of those who go out, you’ve indubitably seen fewer people wearing masks and observing social distancing.

WHAT IS A PERSON TO DO??? Continue Reading...

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