This election may go down in history for being very, very bizarre.  Or it may lead to some necessary changes in state election law.  If Tuesday is a good night for the Democrats and Joe Biden, there will not be much to fight about starting Wednesday.  Likewise, a lot depends on what is still outstanding and remaining to be counted.  As we have noted previously, some states allow absentee ballots to be received after election day and some will not start counting the absentee ballots that have been received until election day.  The folks at 538 have done a summary of what states are likely to have almost all of the ballots counted by the end of election night and what states will still have many ballots to count.

Current polling suggests that Democrats are more likely to vote by mail and Republicans to vote in person.  As such, there are likely to be dramatic shifts in the vote as different types of ballots are counted.  This shift will matter in some of the states that will count almost all of their votes on election night, but it will matter more in the states that will be counting a significant number of votes after election night.

What happens after election night depends on where things stand at the end of the evening.  If Trump can hold some of his marginal states (Florida, Georgia, Iowa, and North Carolina), the race will come down to some late counting states.  On the other hand, if Trump is trailing in these states (and Arizona and Ohio) at the end of election day, the race is over. Continue Reading...