Monthly Archives: December 2020

Georgia on My Mind

By tmess2 | Published December 29, 2020

A week from today, there will be two runoff elections in Georgia for its two Senate seats.  One, the race between Senator David Perdue and Jon Ossoff will be for a full six-year term.  The other, the race between Senator Kelly Loeffler and Reverend Raphael Warnock is for the last two years of former Senator John Isakson’s term.

Georgia, like many southern states, requires a primary run-off if no candidate wins a majority in the primary.  However, Georgia is part of a very small set of states that requires a run-off if no candidate wins a majority in the general election (except for the selection of presidential electors).  It also, like some other states (again mostly in the south), uses a so-called jungle primary for special elections in which all candidates from all parties run on the same ballot in the general election rather than having party primaries to pick candidates for the special election.  Back in November, the Libertarian candidate did just well enough in the Perdue-Ossoff race to prevent anybody from getting a majority, and there were enough candidates running in both parties that nobody got over 35% of the vote with Warnock and Loeffler advancing to the runoff.

As the fact that it is primarily found in the South should indicate, runoff elections have a somewhat racist history in the U.S.  While not the only reason for wanting a runoff, keeping power for the white political and economic establishment against reformers who might support an increased role for minorities (among other things) was a motivating factor. Continue Reading...

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Four Weeks and Counting

By tmess2 | Published December 23, 2020

After 47 months, we are almost at the end of our long national nightmare.  And for his closing acts, Donald Trump is going out the same way that he came in.

Anybody who followed  Trump the businessman should not have been surprised at Trump the president.  For all of his propaganda about being a great deal maker, the reality was something else.  There were three key lessons from Trump the businessman which have been true for this entire administration.

First, Trump was only ever concerned about what was it in it for him.  Trump was never the type of businessman who big on win-win deals in which both sides gained from the deal.  Instead, he wanted to get the most possible out of a deal even if it meant screwing over the other side. Continue Reading...

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Census Watch 2021

By tmess2 | Published December 18, 2020

As folks who have followed this website for a long time know, the decennial census is something that I consider to be a very big deal.  And, while perhaps not as detailed as we did it back in 2011, I am hoping that we will do something as the numbers come out in the spring about what the numbers might mean for our chances at keeping and increasing the Democratic majority in the House.

Redistricting involves two action at the federal level and at the state level.  At the federal level, the results of the census are use to determine how many representatives each state gets (often referred to as apportionment).  At the state level, assuming that a state has more than one representatives, redistricting involves drawing the lines so that each district has roughly the same population (no more than a 5% gap between the largest and smallest district and preferably smaller).   At the current time, of course, we are dealing with actions at the federal level.  The ball only shifts to the state level once apportionment has occurred and the Census Bureau has released the detailed count (breaking population down to census blocks) to each individual state on a rolling basis.

The federal part of the process comes first and involves two steps:  one involving raw data and the other involving the application of a formula to that data.    The first step is the census finalizing its state level population numbers. According to federal law, by January 1, the Census Bureau is supposed to report its numbers to Secretary of Commerce who is to forward those numbers to the president.  Upon receipt of those numbers, the President is to calculate the number of representatives that each state is entitled to and, by January 10,  forward a statement setting forth the population of each state and the number of representatives that each state will have in the next Congress.  The calculation is done by the “method of equal proportions” (one of several mathematical formulas used to “fairly” allocate partial seats). Continue Reading...

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Electoral College

By tmess2 | Published December 13, 2020

One of the often misunderstood aspects of U.S. elections is how the popular vote relates to the election of the President.  While, in the majority of the states, the ballot simply lists the candidates for President (along with the Vice-Presidential running mate), voters are effectively voting for a slate of electors.  The winning slate in each state then assembles on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December at the location and time designated by that state.  After assembling, the electors for the state cast a vote for President and a vote for Vice-President.  The votes are then counted, and the electors complete six certificates of vote recording the votes of the electors for that state.  Each certificate of vote is paired with one of the previously completed certificates of ascertainment.  Federal law then directs what happens with the six certificates of vote with one going to the President of the Senate (in practice, the clerk of the Senate), two to the national archives, two to the secretary of state of the individual state, and one to the federal district court for that state.

Normally, the meeting of the electoral college is a big ceremonial event.  With Covid-19 and the potential for protests to get out of control, it appears that most of the states are planning on holding scaled-down events.

The fringe element of Trump supporters (and President Putin) are hoping for some last minute drama for Monday, but that is practically impossible for several reasons.  First, earlier this year, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld state laws requiring electors to vote for the presidential candidate to whom they are pledged.  While states have different laws on so-called faithless electors,  the net effect of those laws is that sixty-nine Biden electors are from states that replace an elector and cancel the electors vote if the elector fails to follow through on their pledge, sixty are from states that fine the elector, seventy-one are from states with pledges but no enforcement provision, and one hundred six are from states with no law on this issue.  That means that, at most, there are 237 Biden electors who could defect. Continue Reading...

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Safe Harbor Day — UPDATED

By tmess2 | Published December 6, 2020

Whether it is just the weirdness of 2020 or the narcissism of the Orange Menace, this post-election period has been about key dates and events.  Over the past four weeks or so, one by one, despite unsuccessful attempts to have courts intervene to block them, states have certified the results of the presidential election, and the remaining states are set to do so on Monday or Tuesday.   Once the appropriate authority within the state has certified the results of the presidential election, the governor is to complete and mail to the National Archives a “certificate of ascertainment.”  As of today’s date, the National Archives has received just under half of these certificates.

Now normally, this process is routine.  It happens, and only political geeks pay attention.  But because Trump and his “lawyers” refuse to face reality, we are now facing an event that has only really mattered once before in U.S. history — the safe harbor date.   If a state has concluded any dispute related to electors by six days before the electors meet, the determination by the state is “conclusive.”  In 2000, the U.S. Supreme Court used this language to find that Florida wanted all election contests to end by the safe harbor date.  The 2000 election is the only time that we have faced the safe harbor date having any meaning.

But we are back in that boat again.  And this year, the safe harbor date is Tuesday, December 8.    Despite Trump’s attempt to cast this election as a repeat of 2000 with the Supreme Court intervening to decide the election if necessary, what is happening in the courts does not support that alternate reality. Continue Reading...

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