Monthly Archives: July 2021

Redistricting — Illinois

By tmess2 | Published July 31, 2021

Illinois concludes our tour of the midwestern states that lost a seat.  Like New York, Illinois is dominated by one city (Chicago) and its suburbs.  Eleven districts are at least partially in Cook County (Chicago) and another two are partially in a county adjoining Cook County leaving five districts for “downstate.”

Illinois’s current map has an overwhelming number of split precincts.  The current map has four minority-majority district.  Of those four districts, two (First District and Second District) have African-American majorities, one (Seventh District) has an African-American plurality, and one has a Hispanic majority (Fourth District).

The current map has six solid Democratic districts, two safe Democratic districts, two lean Democratic districts, and one toss-up that favor the Democrats.  On the other side, Republicans have one solid district (Fifteenth District), one safe district (Eighteenth District), one lean district (Sixteenth District), and four toss-ups that favor the Republicans.  Right now, Democrats hold three of the five toss-up seats. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Michigan

By tmess2 | Published July 25, 2021

Michigan continues the series of states in the Great Lake Region that lost a seat in the House.  Like Ohio and Pennsylvania, the Republicans won control of the state in 2010 and tried to create a map that slants things in favor of the Republicans.  In response, voters in Michigan shifted responsibility to a bipartisan commission.  The process is somewhat complicated and the final maps will be reviewed by the court for compliance with standards set forth in the state constitution governing the process which includes a fairness requirement.

The current maps would clearly fail the fairness standard.  The three most lopsided districts are three solid Democratic districts (Twelfth District, Thirteenth District, and Fourteenth District) around Detroit which range from an expected Democratic vote of 64% in the Twelfth District to 79% in both the Thirteenth District and Fourteenth District.  The most Republican district in the state is the Tenth District (expected Republican vote of 61%).  As a result, the Democrats have an three solid districts and one lean district (Ninth District), and the Republicans have one solid district, one safe district (Fourth District), and three lean districts (First District, Second District, and Seventh District).  Of the remaining five districts, two are toss-ups that slightly favor the Democrats (Fifth District and Eleventh District) and three are toss-ups that slightly favor the Republicans (Third District, Sixth District, and Eighth District).  In short, the current map is an 8-6 map in favor of the Republicans even though the statewide numbers actually favor the Democrats.  Despite the map favoring the Republicans, the current delegation is actually a 7-7 split because the Democrats currently hold the Eight District.

Currently, Michigan has two districts with African-American majorities (the Thirteenth District and the Fourteenth District).  As noted above, as has often been the case when Republicans have drawn the maps, giving African-Americans a solid majority in districts often lead to districts that are packed with Democratic votes.  The task for those drawing the maps will be how to make the urban districts less packed while still protecting the influence of African-Americans in these districts. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Ohio

By tmess2 | Published July 18, 2021

Like Pennsylvania, Ohio is  a midwestern state that has lost a seat in the House and has an open Senate seat.  There are two key differences.  First, in Ohio, the governor is also a Republican.  Ohio voters have adopted some checks on the majority party ability to redistrict at will, but the majority can force through a map that will last for two cycles without any minority support.  Second, Democratic Representative Tim Ryan has already announced that he will be running for Senate.  While that allows the legislature to keep the remaining incumbents in separate districts, it does not mean that changing the maps in a way that keeps incumbents separate will be easy as incumbents do not always live in the center of their district.

Already, Ohio is a very gerrymandered state with some very weird map shapes.  As with the other states that lost a seat, most of the existing districts are short on voters with two exceptions — the Third District (Columbus) and the Twelfth District (the area to the north and east of Columbus in central Ohio).  Other than the Fifteenth District (the area to the south of Columbus) which is only 15,000 people short, the remaining thirteen districts are between 30,000 and 90,000 people short.  In particular, the five districts that adjoin the current Thirteenth District are a combined 330,000 short.  But as the current Thirteenth has just approximately 707,000 people, that will be around 370,000 people that those districts will have to kick to the rest of the state.  More significantly,  as in the rest of the state, the lines were carefully drawn to pack as many Democrats into the Democratic districts as possible.  The Eleventh District which stretches from Cleveland to Akron is carefully drawn so that the Democrat expected votes are around 80%.  While it borders the Thirteenth District, it can’t move too far east into the current Thirteenth without needing to shed Democratic voters into the Republican districts to the west.  And the Fourteenth District (northeastern Ohio) is a lean Republican district that really can’t afford to give Republicans to the Eleventh District or take in the Democrats around Akron, Ravenna, or Youngstown.  In short, once again, the Republicans are going to be very carefully looking precinct by precinct as they carve up the Thirteenth District and make the necessary shifts of the districts toward the eastern part of the state.

Trying to draw a more favorable map for Democrats, I began by doing two things:  First, there are three counties that are large enough to fully contain a district — Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Hamilton County (Cincinnati), and Franklin County (Columbus).  In the current map, only Franklin contain fully contains a district (Third District).  So I kept Cincinnati intact (which would force the two Republican representatives from the First and Second District into a primary) and drew a map that had eastern and central Hamilton County around Cincinnati in the First District and kept the Eleventh District in Cuyahoga County.  That flipped the First District from a toss-up favoring the Republicans to a lean Democratic District.  It did lower the African-American population in the Eleventh District  Overall, African-Americans are still the largest population group but they are only a plurality and among the voting age population, there are slightly more whites than African-Americans.  African-Americans should still have the majority of votes in the Democratic primary, and the district is solidly Democratic; so African-Americans should be able to elect their preferred candidate.  These shifts force the Second District eastward and northward (taking some area from the Fifteenth District). Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Pennsylvania

By tmess2 | Published July 14, 2021

By the end of the process, redistricting in Pennsylvania may come down to which of two prior district maps is the baseline for the new maps.  Currently, the Republicans control the state legislature while there is a Democratic governor.  While I will leave it to those on the ground in Pennsylvania to discuss what the chances are for a compromise map, if the legislature is unable to pass a map that the governor will sign (as happened in 2018), the responsibility for drawing the new map will fall on the courts.

In drawing new maps, courts tend to use the existing map as a baseline.  Because Pennsylvania is losing a seat, there will need to be significant adjustments, but courts are likely to be somewhat neutral as far as which party benefits from the changes.  But the issue is which map is the starting point.  In 2011, when Republicans controlled everything, they drew a very partisan map.  The Pennsylvania courts struck down those maps on state law grounds in 2018.  The interim maps drawn by the courts are still in effect due to the failure of the legislature to come up with a new map.  Because the 2018 maps are more neutral, Democrats would benefit if the courts start with the 2018 maps.  For this reason, it would make sense for Democrats to file a preemptive case in state court.  Simply put, the state courts are more likely to start with the 2018 maps as the U.S. Supreme Court has held that, in drawing remedial maps, federal courts should start with the last legislatively drawn map and make only the changes needed to remedy the violations.

Besides the general issues of which district(s) will be split in two (or three) to balance out the rest of the state, there are two other matters which could impact the lines.  The first of these matters is the race for the U.S. Senate.  As of now, no member of Congress has entered the race for Senate.  There are a handful of House seats that are, at least on paper, swing seats.  The individuals holding those seats have the decision of whether they want to continue to have to fight every two years to hold those seats or if they want to take the chance at winning the Senate seat.  While a good incumbent can outperform their party in their district, the First, Seventh, Eighth, and Seventeenth are swing seats that slightly favor the Democrats by margins of 2.8% to 6.9% with Democrats currently holding three of the four seats.  Representative Brian Fitzgerald who somehow manages to hold the First District for the Republicans and Representative Matt Cartwright in the Eighth District and Representative Connor Lamb in the Seventeenth District for the Democrats all have to wonder how long their luck will continue to hold in redrawn districts.  And it would be much easier for those drawing the maps if they don’t have to choose which two incumbents to force into the same race. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — New York

By tmess2 | Published July 10, 2021

Politics in New York can be divided into four regions:  Long Island (Nassau County and Suffolk County), New York City, the New York City suburbs (Westchester County, Rockland County, Orange County, and Putnam County), and the rest of the state.  It’s not that the rest of the state is a coherent region.  It’s just that New York City is a barrier between Long island and the rest of the state.  And the southeastern corner of the state is a funnel leading down to New York City.  Once you get north of Orange County and Putnam County, the state quickly widens.

And this geographic reality is reflected in the current maps.  The First District is entirely within Suffolk County at the eastern end of Long Island.  The Second District is contained within Nassau County and Suffolk County.   The Fourth District is entirely within Nassau County.   The Third District spans from Suffolk County to Queens County.  The Fifth District contains parts of Nassau County and Queen County.  The Sixth District, the Seventh District, the Eighth District, the Ninth District, the Tenth District, the Eleventh District, the Twelfth District, the Thirteenth District, the Fourteenth District, and the Fifteenth District are entirely contained within New York City.  The Sixteenth District is partially in New York City and partly in Westchester County.  The Seventeenth District contains part of Westchester County and all of Rockland County.  The Eighteen District contains the rest of Westchester County, Orange County, Putnam County, and part of Duchess County.  The remaining nine districts gradually spread out as you head north and west from the New York City suburbs.  Simply put, there are a lot of very narrow districts in the New York City area leaving little room for the districts north of New York City to reach into New York City to gain Democrats and for the New York City districts to reach north and gain Republicans. This geography is not good for Democrats as New York City is very, very blue.  In essence, the Democrats have self-packed themselves into the New York City districts, and the Republicans only have to do a little bit of cracking in the rest of the state.

Under the current maps, the best districts for Republicans are around 60-40.  Meanwhile, the Democrats hold eight seats in which they are expected to get over 80% of the vote.  That is a lot of wasted votes.  In short, political geography has created a “natural” pro-Republican gerrymander, and the struggle for Democrats is how to undo this gerrymander. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — West Virginia

By tmess2 | Published July 5, 2021

Redistricting in West Virginia will probably be a very simple process.  Currently, all three districts run east to west with the First District being in the northern part of the state, the Second District in the central part of the state, and the Third District being in the southern part of the state.  Even though the Second District has the most population, it will probably be split in two.  The exact lines will probably depend on influence of the current members.  Obviously, both of the incumbents in the First (the most senior member of the delegation) and the Third (the most junior of the delegation) would rather not get the incumbent in the Second as  a primary opponent.  and the incumbent in the Second (which reaches to the northeastern corner) would prefer to split West Virginia into an eastern district and a western district which would leave him alone in the eastern district and put the two other representatives into the western district.  All three representatives live on the edge of the state (First in the northwest, Second in the northeast, and Third in the southwest) so it is not that hard to draw the lines in a way that determines which two of the incumbents will have to run against each other.

But at the end of the day, the exact lines will only matter to the people who want to represent West Virginia in Congress.  We are long gone from the days of Robert Byrd when Democrats were a dominant force in West Virginia.  At the present time, there just are not enough Democrats in the state, and they are too scattered around the edges to draw a toss-up district.  Both districts will be around R +20.

When I tried to draw the most favorable map that I could for Democrats in West Virginia, I still ended up with that district being around R+14.  And to get that district that linked all of the Democratic precincts in West Virginia, I basically had to draw a  horseshoe with the Democratic voters packed into the horseshoe and the rest of the state filling in that horseshoe.  In other words, a map that looked awful and still did not give Democrats a competitive district. Continue Reading...

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A Republic if You Can Keep It

By tmess2 | Published July 4, 2021

While many American today are celebrating the anniversary of the issuance of the Declaration of Independence, the United States Supreme Court spent this week giving a green light to Republican attempts to cook the ballot box.  Forty years ago, both parties supported the Voting Rights Act.  Democrats wanted to increase minority representation in government, and Republicans realized that compliance with the Voting Rights Act made it easier for them to pack Democrats into “minority” districts and, thereby, make swing districts lean Republicans.

But drawing district lines is merely one way to reduce minority influence.  And, most importantly, district lines play no role in state-wide race.  To reduce minority influence in state-wide races, you need to keep minorities from voting.  And, while the Voting Rights Act clearly bars the blatant techniques like literacy tests which can be directed at minority voting, the question has remained about techniques which merely make it more difficult for minorities to vote.

Unfortunately, we now have a generation of Republican lawyers who have been hostile to the Voting Rights Act in the majority on the Supreme Court.  And we saw the results this week in a decision out of Arizona — Brnovich vs. Democratic National Committee.   This is not the first time that the issue of the meaning of Section 2 and the test that Congress wants the courts to use in analyzing Section 2 claims has been before the Supreme Court.  The original version of Section 2 merely barred practices which states were using to abridge the right of minority groups to vote.  After the Supreme Court interpreted that provision as only barring practices upon proof of a discriminatory intent, Congress amended Section 2 bar practices which “result” in the abridgment of the right of minorities to vote. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Virginia

By tmess2 | Published July 3, 2021

Virginia continues the broken record of this year’s redistricting storyline — growth in urban and suburban areas and shrinking population in the rural areas.  The four districts which have the highest excess population are the four districts (First, Eighth, Tenth, and Eleventh) that contain parts of Loudon County, Fairfax County, and Prince William County in the Washington, D.C. suburbs.  The other two districts with excess population are the districts (Fourth and Seventh) that take in part of the Richmond area.  The other five districts have shortages with the biggest shortage being in the Ninth District in southwestern Virginia.

For this cycle, Virginia has opted to use a hybird commission (part legislative members and part citizen members) to draft plans which will then go to an up-down vote by the legislature.  If this process fails, the courts will draw the lines.  Because of the change in the process, it is unclear whether the results will be based on the old map or if the commission will draw the maps from scratch.  For now, I am assuming the the current maps will be the starting point.  The criteria encourages that the lines respect communities of interest, but do not require that the lines follow existing political subdivisions.  In terms of the Voting Rights Act, the Third District (part of southeastern Virginia near Norfolk) and the Fourth District (southeastern Virginia and Richmond) are half-white/half-African American districts and the Eighth District (Arlington and Alexandria) and the Eleventh District (central Fairfax County and eastern Prince William County) are minority-majority (although just barely) districts with no dominant minority group.

I started in the southwest as the Ninth has the biggest shortfall.  I gave the Ninth District the rest of Henry County (currently split with the Fifth District) and more of Roanoake County (currently split with the Sixth District).   To make up for its losses (and its own shortfall) the Fifth District (a large blob that essentially splits the state from the southern border up to the D.C. suburbs) gains Amelia County and Greenville County.  The Second District (eastern Virginia) gains part of Chesapeake County (from the Fourth District) as does the Third District.  The Fifth District will probably gain some from the Fourth District in its southern part along the border as well as chunks from the Seventh District.  (I am seeing Greenville County, Nodaway County, and Amelia County going to the Fifth District along with additional parts of Fauquier County.)  The Fourth District would gain additional parts of Chesterfield County to make up for its losses.   To make up for its losses, the Sixth District will gain Frederick County and part of Winchester County from the Tenth District.  The Seventh District will gain territory in Farquier County and Prince William County from the First District to make up for the loss which in turn will gain other parts of Prince William County from the Eleventh District.  And finally, the Eighth and Eleventh will shift slightly to the north and west in Fairfax County. Continue Reading...

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