Monthly Archives: July 2022

New York Hosts Dems in Bid to Get 2024 Convention

The DNC will be visiting Chicago next week.

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2022 Primary Season Part 2

Tuesday marks the unofficial start of the second part of primary season.  Problems caused by redistricting have altered the normal calendar. with many states going out of their usual order.  Normally, there is a good break between the Spring primaries (typically ending by mid-June) and the Summer primaries (typically starting in early August).

Maryland which starts off the Summer primaries this week is a good example of that.  It was supposed to be at the tail end of the Spring primaries.  Instead, it got moved back three weeks.  It and the postponed state runoffs in North Carolina the following week are serving as a bridge between what is typically a five to six week break between the two halves.

The regularly scheduled primaries start the following week with Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington on Tuesday (August 2) and Tennessee on Thursday (August 4).  Arizona, Michigan, and Missouri all have races on their ballots which are best described as total chaos on the Republican side.  Michigan may be in the worst shape as several of their strongest candidates for Governor failed to make the ballot leaving a real clown car of a race.  The results from these three states will help frame the big question on the Republican side for this fall — how off the rails full on Trumpist will the Republican candidates be this fall.  The Democrats in same of these early states have our typical establishment vs. the Squad vs. Bernie Sanders vs. working class populism battles.  That struggle will also help define what the issues will be in the fall. Continue Reading...

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GOP panel recommends Milwaukee to host 2024 convention

Looks like Milwaukee will be the host of back-to-back conventions from different parties:

“Today, the Site Selection Committee voted to recommend Milwaukee to host the 2024 Republican National Convention and it is a testament to the forthright and professional behavior embraced by Milwaukee’s city leaders throughout the process. A final decision will be made by Chairwoman [Ronna] McDaniel and the full RNC in the coming weeks.” RNC senior adviser Richard Walters said in a statement.

Milwaukee beat out Nashville in Friday’s selection vote. Nashville’s bid to host the convention hit a roadblock last Tuesday when two city council members pulled the draft agreement to host the convention from the council’s agenda at the last minute.

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The News from London

The U.S. system is somewhat unique in that we have regularly scheduled elections with a regularly scheduled process for choosing candidates, mostly by means of elections open to most voters.  Other countries do things differently.  Many countries are parliamentary systems with the Prime Minister being a hybrid of the U.S. President (in terms of power), the U.S. Speaker of the House (in terms of being officially chosen by the whole House and removable by the whole House), and Majority Leader of the Senate (in terms of being removable by the majority of the majority party).

In recent weeks, the Trumpish Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, has been bogged down by scandals.  Last week, the heat got too high for many members of the Conservative Party, and an open revolt forced Boris Johnson to agree to resign.  Under the British system, this means that the Conservative Party has to choose a new leader who will then become Prime Minister.

There are no formal rules for this type of leadership election and, when this situation occurs, it falls to the Conservatives in Parliament to draft the rules that will apply to this election.  This time, they have chosen a rather expedited process.  The rules were announced just yesterday. Continue Reading...

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Four cities present bids for 2024 Dem convention

Last month Chicago, New York, Houston and Atlanta made their case to host the 2024 Democratic National Convention:

Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Mayor Lori Lightfoot pitched top Democratic National Committee officials on Friday about Chicago’s bid to host the 2024 Democratic convention, bringing boxes of Chicago goodies and – in a show of how serious this bid is – themselves.

In separate presentations, the DNC officials – including DNC Chair Jamie Harrison, who attended via video, and new DNC senior adviser Cedric Richmond, a former top official in the Biden White House – Chicago, New York, Houston and Atlanta representatives made their cases to host the 2024 convention. Continue Reading...

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The Most Dangerous Branch — End of Term Reflections

In the Federalist Papers, the Judiciary was called the “Least Dangerous Branch.”  The thought was that the Supreme Court relied on the other branches to follow through on court orders.  However, in our legal system, court orders are usually obeyed.  And, between gerrymandering, filibusters, and the equality of the states in the Senate, it is very hard to get the types of majorities that allow real change in the “political” branches.  Courts, however, simply require a majority to act.  And the relentless campaign of the far right has left us with a Supreme Court that borders on being as political as any other branch of government.  That is not to say that every decision is political.  There are lots of legal issues that are not partisan in nature.  And there are some issues that split conservatives.  However, on this Court, when there is a clear partisan divide over an issue, the result is a foregone conclusion regardless of what the true facts and precedent dictate.    The last week of the term gave us three cases in which Senator Mitch McConnell’s abuse of Senate rules resulted in rulings that we would not have gotten in 2015.

The first case is Kennedy v. Bremerton School District.  What makes this case significant is that this case is ultimately about what version of the facts one chooses to belief.  The normal rule is that appellate courts take the facts as found by the lower courts or in the light most favorable to the lower court.  In this case, however, a major conflict between the two opinions is their characterization of the facts.  The majority sees the practice of the petitioner — a public high school coach kneeling on the football field at the end or the game — as a private act of worship.  The dissent (and the lower courts) saw the act as a public display by a government employee in the course of his employment.  The normal practice when the case is this fact-dependent and the facts are unclear is to “dismiss as improvidently granted.”  Instead, the majority picks and chooses the disputed evidence that supports the legal rules that it wishes to establish notwithstanding compelling evidence supporting a contrary reading of what happened.  In doing so, the Supreme Court announces that the Lemon test for the Establishment Clause has been discarded (as well as other tests for an Establishment Clause violation) and replaced by (wait for it) a historical analysis of what would have been considered an establishment of religion.  It should shock nobody that this approach means that very little will be a violation of the Establishment Clause.  With the Establishment Clause neutered, that just leaves the Free Exercise Clause and the Free Speech Clause.  Given the fact that the Supreme Court has greatly expanded the impact of these two clauses, the end result for the forces of protecting the rights of Christian Theocrats over the rights of everybody else is a foregone conclusion.

The second case Oklahoma v. Castro=Huerta.  This case involves criminal jurisdiction on tribal lands in Oklahoma.  Several years ago, in a 5-4 decision (with Justice Ginsburg) on the Supreme Court, Justice Gorsuch and the four liberal justices ruled that no treaty or act by Congress ever formally disestablished the native reservations in Eastern Oklahoma even as non-Natives bought the land on the reservation.  As such, the lands were still legally part of those reservations.  Under federal statute, crimes by natives against natives on reservations have to be tried in tribal court or federal court (depending on the offense).  The new case involved crimes against natives by non-natives.  With Justice Barrett instead of Justice Ginsburg, there were five votes against tribal authority and in favor of state authority.  As such, the majority — thanks to a rushed confirmation by Senator McConnell in the fall of 2020 — found that Oklahoma also had the authority to try such cases in state court.   Now, both this decision and the earlier decision are based on statutes.  In theory, Congress could fix the laws related to the relationship between tribal authority and state authority to fix the issues brought out by cases (or actually appropriate the money to hire enough prosecutors, public defenders, and judges to handle a large number of cases on tribal lands in Oklahoma), but the deadlock in Congress makes this highly unlikely. Continue Reading...

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