Monthly Archives: May 2024

Dems to nominate Biden early to avoid GOP Ohio nonsense

By Matt | Published May 28, 2024

We’ve been talking about convention dates for almost 20 years here at DCW, and you have to wonder if this is going to have effects in the future:

The Democratic National Committee announced on Tuesday that it will nominate President Joe Biden through a “virtual roll call” vote ahead of the August convention to ensure he appears on the Ohio ballot this November.

Ohio’s ballot deadline is Aug. 7, two weeks before the DNC planned to hold its official presidential nomination at an in-person convention in Chicago. Frank LaRose, the Republican secretary of state, warned last week that Biden would not be on the state’s ballot unless the state lawmakers moved the ballot access deadline to after the Democratic convention. Continue Reading...

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Post-Memorial Day Convention Update

By Matt | Published May 28, 2024
  • The chair of the convention is not concerned about uncommitted delegates protesting in the convention hall, and says they will be allowed in (well they’re delegates – it would be strange, and against party rules, not to allow them in)
  • Ohio Republicans are still playing games with Biden’s ballot access, but the GOP Governor is working to get it resolved.
  • The GOP continues to press the Secret Service to widen the security zone in Milwaukee.
  • The media had a second logistical walkthrough at the United Center in Chicago.

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Closing Argument in People vs. Trump

By tmess2 | Published May 27, 2024

On Tuesday morning, we will hear closing argument in People (of New York) vs. Trump.  There is a good chance that closing argument will spill over into Tuesday afternoon.  Personally, I think this is a mistake, As anybody who has sat through a long sermon, or a college lecture, or a State of the Union speech knows, it is hard to keep the audience’s attention even, when like a jury, they are supposed to be paying close attention.  But us lawyers like to hear ourselves talk and sometimes we dwell on what we find fascinating rather than what is really important in a case.

The basic structure of closing argument (whether in civil cases or in criminal cases) is that the party with the burden of proof (usually the plaintiff in a civil case and always the prosecution in a criminal case) goes first.  The other side (here Trump) goes next, and the party with the burden of proof then gets a rebuttal argument.  The total time allotted to both sides is the same, and the party with the split argument has to choose to split its time between the two (although in some places there is a requirement that the first part of the argument has to be longer than the final argument.  In some places, like where I practice, the court reads the instructions before closing argument.  In my opinion, this practice makes closing argument easier as the jury has already heard what they are supposed to be determining.  But, in New York, the court reads the instructions to the jury after the closing argument.  However, the attorneys know before they begin closing argument what those instructions will be.

The general rule for closing argument is to start and end with a strong statement about what the case is about (and why that dictates a verdict in favor of your side).  On paper, the defense has the easier job — they only need to win on one element of an offense while the prosecution has to win on every element of the offense.  In practice, unless the prosecutors are idiots, there is strong evidence supporting the charges, and only one or two elements are really in dispute (allowing the prosecution to quickly note that the other elements are not in dispute). Continue Reading...

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Supreme Court Update — Appropriations and Redistricting

By tmess2 | Published May 25, 2024

We are at that point of the Supreme Court terms when we are waiting for the other shoe to drop.  All the arguments and briefing for the term is done, and what is left is for the opinions to slowly drip out.  For now, the Supreme Court is only holding one opinion day per week.  That will be changing soon.

In May, we tend to get the older cases (October, November, and December) that have multiple opinions and newer cases (March and April) that were “easy” unanimous decisions.  As we get later into June, we will get the 5-4 decisions from February, March, and April, and the number of cases will pick up.

So far, in May, there have been three opinion days (with one more set for this Thursday).  On those opinion days, we have gotten, two, three, and three opinions.  With eight opinions down, we still have approximately thirty-five opinions (approximately because there are a few cases that could be consolidated) left to come over the next five weeks.  That number is why we are likely to get multiple opinion days per week in the latter part of June as we need nine to twelve opinion days. Continue Reading...

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2024 Primaries — Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, and Oregon (and California Special Election)

By tmess2 | Published May 19, 2024

This week several states have primaries, but it is unlikely that many of them will be significant.  In addition, we have the runoff in California for Kevin McCarthy’s old seat.

Starting with the special election in California.  Under the top two system in California, the Republicans got both slots in the runoff.  So when the results are finally certified in June, the Republicans will go back up to 218 seats.  The only issue is which Republican gets the slot — McCarthy’s handpicked successor (Vince Fong) or County Sheriff Michael Boudreaux.  This is likely to be a low turnout election which means that anything could happen.  The same two candidates have made the general election in November which will have much higher turnout, but the winner on Tuesday will have a major advantage for the November election.

Georgia had to redraw districts to comply with the Voting Rights Act, but Republicans in the legislature solved that issue by simply redrawing the map so that the Democratic district was majority-minority and making the Republican district whiter (with the numbers flipped).  Thus, the end result in Georgia is likely to be the same.  For the most part, incumbents are likely to prevail, but some incumbents ended up with significantly altered districts.  Additionally, the Third District is an open seat.  Starting with the Third District, this rural district in western Georgia will almost certainly go Republican in November.  There are five candidates running.  The most likely outcome on Tuesday will be a runoff.  The top three candidates in fundraising are Mike Crane, Michael Dugan, and Brian Jack, and it is likely that two of the three will make the runoff.  The other race of interest is the Sixth District.  This race is the one most likely impacted by the redrawing of the lines.  Representative Lucy McBath currently represents the Seventh District.  That district was chopped up to avoid the Democrats gaining a seat in redistricting, and Representative McBath is now running in the Sixth District.  As best as I can tell, there is no overlap between the new Sixth and the old Seventh.  While Representative McBath will be favored in this race, there is a chance of an upset.  Unfortunately, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene did not draw any primary opponents and thus is likely to be back for another term. Continue Reading...

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Convention news 100 days out

By Matt | Published May 12, 2024
  • Yesterday marked 100 days to the Democratic National Convention
  • Democrats are actively considering making parts of the convention virtual, or moving other parts to different venues or earlier times – all to minimize coverage of potential protests.
  • DNC leaders pushed back on comparisons to 1968
  • They really pushed back
  • Chicago and Milwaukee will be swapping officers to increase police presence at both conventions
  • More protest updates
  • Steven Spielberg is working on convention planning
  • And the GOP is unhappy that the Secret Service will not move the security lines

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2024 Primaries — Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia

By tmess2 | Published May 11, 2024

One of the features/bugs of American politics is that states get to pick the dates of their primary elections.  While there are reasons to want an early presidential primary, there are reasons wo want a later date for the primaries for other offices.  As a result, in the early part of the presidential primary process, you have a mix of states which have a unified (president and other races) primary and states which are having a separate presidential primary.  But those states which wait until May or June for their presidential primary are more likely to have a unified primary.

This week, we have unified primaries in three states.  (There are also runoffs in North Carolina, but most of the significant races will not have a runoff.)  As listed in the title, the three states with unified primaries this week are Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia.

Starting with Maryland, the national Republican leadership has struggled for several cycles in their efforts to get their preferred candidates to run.  However, in Maryland, they succeeded.  Larry Hogan, the former governor who was term limited in 2022, opted to run for the Senate.  As of May, Hogan’s personal popularity is making him a strong contender to take this Senate seat.  Part of the fall campaign message from the Democrats in Maryland will be that a vote for Hogan is a vote to let Ted Cruz, Rick Scott, and Mike Lee run the Senate.  Because the incumbent Democrat, Ben Cardin, is not running for reelection, the Democrats have a competitive primary.  The two major candidates are Angela Alsobrooks who is the County Executive from Prince George County (the D.C. suburbs) and Congressman David Trone.  Ms. Alsobrooks is the more progressive of the two candidates.  The issue for Democratic voters is do they vote for the candidate who will excite the base but who might have trouble winning swing voters (Alsobrooks) or the candidate who is more likely to compete for swing voters but will have trouble exciting the base (Trone). Continue Reading...

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UK Local Elections

By tmess2 | Published May 1, 2024

This week (Thursday, May 2) are the local elections in the UK.  While city councils (and the functional equivalent for areas outside of the cities) have some powers, the primacy of the UK parliament (especially in England) often leads the vote for council members to be a way to express disapproval of the current government.  While some share of that “protest” vote comes from some otherwise loyal supporters of the governing party who will return to the fold for the next general election, the results in the council vote is often seen as a referendum on the current government.

The vote this year is particularly significant.  In the U.K., the national parliament is elected for a term of up to five years.  While for a period of time, the U.K. flirted with having a fixed term similar to Congress, the “fixed term” law allowed for parliament to agree to an early election.  In practice, it was impossible for the opposition to vote against an early election although the opposition could, to a limited extent, get some input on the date of the election.  So the U.K. went back to the old law which allows the government to call an early election.  We are now nearing the end of the current parliament’s term.  The last election in the U.K. was in December 2019.  In theory, the government could wait until the term ends to call the next election (which would then fall at the end of January 2025), but that would have the election period run through the holidays which would cause havoc with some of the deadlines related to the election.  As such, the expectation is the government will schedule the parliamentary elections in the early fall.

Generally speaking, council terms in England are for four years.  City councils fall into three basic types.  Some councils elect the full council every four years.  Some councils elect half their membership every other year.  And some councils have a four-year cycle in which they elect one-third of their members every year (with a fourth “off-year” in which no members were elected.  But vacancies can require special elections as part of the council elections to fill vacancies and boundary changes can require the full council to stand under the new ward lines even if the council election is normally for one-third of the council. Continue Reading...

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