We are at that time of the election cycle where every close poll causes Democrats to have panic attacks.  But it is important to understand the exact imperfections of polls rather than the myths about polls.

First, almost every polling company tries to be accurate.  There are a couple of exceptions that are really propaganda companies that use slanted polls to push a political agenda, but most polling companies depend on having a reputation for accuracy.

Second, every poll has a margin of error.  The margin of error is tied to sample size.  To use a real world statistical example, we know that a coin flip will come up heads 50% of the time.   But if you flip a coin twice, you will only get a 1-1 split 50% of the time.  If you flip a coin 100 times, 95% of the time, you will get between 44 and 56 heads (a margin of error of 6%).  If you flip a coin 1000 times, 95% of the time, you will get between 480 and 520 heads (a margin of error of 2%). Continue Reading...