Three weeks out is a good time to take stock of how things are looking in this year’s election.  Voter registration has closed in about half the states and will close in a good chunk of the remaining states in the next seven to ten days.  (Some of these states do permit “same day voting” where you can register in person when you vote, but most do not.)  Meanwhile, early voting has started in about one-third of the states.   (One-third of the states do not technically have “no excuse” early voting.)

The 2016 elections should serve as a reminder of the limitations of polling.   By definition, undecided voters have not decided and they can break in any proportion.  While national polling tends to be more accurate than district-level polling (and more common), elections are decided on a district-level basis.  And, all polling uses turnout assumptions that may or may not reflect who actually votes in an election.  The one advantage that Democrats have over the poll numbers is that groups that tend to vote Democratic tend to have low turnout, especially in the mid-terms.  Thus, if we can get a high turnout from these segments of the population, we should exceed the current poll numbers.

With that caveat, this year’s election appears to be a creature of the calendar.  Because 2014 and 2016 were good years for the Republicans, it looks like Democrats are poised to make significant gains in the U.S. House and in state legislative races.   It is clear that Trumpism is redefining the Republican party putting many suburban voters who used to lean Republican up for grabs.  That has created a decent number of “Romney-Clinton” districts and even more districts that Romney won solidly that Trump barely won.   A classic example of the districts that will decide who controls the House is one of the districts from the area where I grew up, the 7th district of Texas.  For the past fifty years. dating back to the first President Bush, this district has been a Republican district.  Forty years ago, the minority population in this district was non-existent.  It is now minority-majority, but just barely.  It also includes several very highly educated parts of Houston including the area around Rice University.    It also includes some of the wealthiest neighborhoods in Houston.  Will the Democrats win this district this year?  Maybe.  But the fact that Republicans are having to defend this district is a problem for the Republican Party in the near future. Continue Reading...