Tag Archives: 2020 Census

Redistricting — New Jersey

By tmess2 | Published June 26, 2021

In the Garden State, redistricting is done by a bipartisan commission.  If the commission fails to pass a plan, it then falls to the courts.  As such, the current map is the likely starting point for any new map.

Currently, the Democrats hold ten of the twelve seats, but the map actually creates six Democratic districts, one Republican district, and five toss-up districts.  At the present time, the overpopulated part of the state is the three districts that contain Newark and the suburbs of New York
City (the Eighth District, the Ninth District, and the Tenth District).  the other district that is significantly overpopulated is the Twelfth District in the western part of the state around Princeton.  All four of these districts are solidly Democratic.  The two most underpopulated parts of the state are the two districts in the southern part of the state — the First (the southwest part of the state around Camden) and the Second (the rest of the south New Jersey).  Given the population pattern in the state, all of the lines in the state are going to shift toward New York City.

As in other urbanized states, the Voting Rights Act will be some consideration.  There are five minority-majority districts (Sixth, Eight, Ninth, Tenth, and Twelfth) with Hispanics being the largest group in two districts (the Eight — in which they are the majority — and the Ninth) and African Americans being a majority in one district (the Tenth). Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Georgia

By tmess2 | Published June 19, 2021

The Republicans control redistricting in Georgia, but the current map gives them several challenges.  Several suburban districts that leaned Republican in 2011 are now swing districts held by Democrats.  Additionally, the Republican have to be careful to avoid violating the Voting Rights Act.  And, as in other states, there has been a population shift from the rural areas of the state to the metropolitan part of the state, specifically Atlanta and its suburbs.  Based on the 2019 Census estimates, the First District (southeastern Georgia) is around 5,000 people short; the Second District (southwest Georgia) is over 70,000 people short; the Third District (western Georgia) is around 9,000 people short; the Eighth District (southern Georgia) is over 35,000 people short; the Twelfth District (eastern-southeastern Georgia) is around 20,000 people short; and the Fourteenth District (northwestern Georgia) is around 25,000 people short.  Of these districts, one (Second) is safe Democrat and the others are safe to solid Republican.  Having said that, the biggest overages are the Seventh District (northeastern Atlanta suburbs), the Fifth District (Atlanta), and the Eleventh District (northwestern suburbs) — one toss-up district (Seventh), one solid Democratic district (Fifth), and one solid Republican District (Eleventh).

Given that the safest Republican precincts are in districts that are short residents, and the most Democratic precincts are in the overpopulated parts of the other districts, Republicans are going to have to look carefully at how they move the lines.  It is possible, however, to accomplish their main goals which are to regain the Sixth District (currently D+1) and the Seventh District (currently R+2).  On paper this goal can be achieved.  To accomplish this goal, Republicans will have to have adjoining districts trade precincts.  A good example is Gwinnett County where you could some Democratic precincts move to the Tenth District and some Republican precincts move to the Seventh.  For the Sixth District, the changes are much more blunt with the Eleventh District moving into Marietta in Cobb County to make up for the precincts that it will need to shed to the Thirteenth District (to allow the Thirteenth to shed precincts to the Third District).  The real problem, for the Republicans are how much they can trust the numbers.  Atlanta is a prime example of the suburbs changing quickly.  And using anything other than the 2020 results may make these districts look redder than they actually are.  Minimalist changes — combined with the current attempts at voter suppression in Georgia — may allow the Republicans to temporarily win back the Sixth District and the Seventh District, but the current trends will make it hard for the Republicans to keep them.

There are certainly some changes to my first round of maps that the Republicans could make which would involve adding precincts to districts that are already over in population and taking precincts from districts that are under in population (with other precincts moved around to compensate).  The most likely option for this would be for the Ninth District to give up precincts in northern Forsyth County to the Sixth District and the Seventh District.  The Ninth District would then get some additional precincts from the Tenth which would get precincts from the Fourth District and Seventh District in Gwinnett County (the Seventh would get some precincts from the Tenth in Gwinnett County).  Finally, the Fourth District would get precincts from the Sixth District in DeKalb County.  With some aggressive precinct selection, my final maps showed the Sixth and Seventh Districts as approximately R+7. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Missouri

By tmess2 | Published June 14, 2021

The 2011 redistricting in Missouri gave us some very weird maps.  In the Fifth District, we have the “dead lizard” district in which the Republican suburbs of Kansas City in Eastern Jackson County were carved out and moved in with the Sixth District (northern Missouri) which is mostly on the other side of the Missouri River.  Meanwhile, some of the more Democratic suburbs of Kansas City (and the part of Kansas City north of the Missouri River) became the core of the Fifth District as well as what were some Democratic leaning counties east of Kansas City along the Missouri River that had historically been part of the Fourth District (western Missouri).  In the Third District (eastern Missouri), you have the “claw” surrounding the St. Louis area on three sides.  The Second District (suburban St. Louis) took in some of the more conservative suburbs of St. Louis in St. Charles County.  The 2011 maps were the product of a General Assembly in which the Republicans were just shy of a supermajority and needed to get a small number of Democratic votes to overcome the Democratic governor’s veto.

In this next round of redistricting, not a lot has changed in terms of population.  The First District (St. Louis and its inner suburbs) has continued to shrink relative to the rest of the state and will need about 35,000 people.  The Eighth District (southeastern Missouri) will need around 7,000 people.  Meanwhile, the Seventh District (southwestern Missouri including Springfield and Branson) will need to shed around 14,000 people.  There are a lot of split precincts in the current map, so the exact surpluses of the remaining districts (and the exact shortfall in the Eighth) is hard to determine, but everything will need to be shifted somewhat.

What has changed is that there is now a Republican governor.  While the Republicans do not have to make any concessions to Democrats to pass a bill, there will be some restraints caused by the need to comply with the Voting Rights Act.  In other words, the Republicans are unable to carve up the two Democratic districts to get a clean 8-0 sweep of the state.  But they can try to draw lines that improve the chances of keeping a 6-2 majority. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Nevada

By tmess2 | Published June 13, 2021

Over the past decade, Nevada has been a slightly bluish swing state.  Most of the Democratic base is in Clark County (Las Vegas) with an outpost in Washoe County (Reno)  Of course, Clark County represents the majority of the state’s population.  As a result, while state-wide elections are close, Democrats actually have the majority in the state legislature.  And that means that this time around, Democrats will control the redistricting.

Before discussing the possible new lines, it is important to note one potential issue with the numbers that I am using.  Besides the normal caution that, until the 2020 census numbers are released, we are relying on the 2019 population estimates, Nevada has a complicating factor.  In almost every state, prisoners are counted as living in the prison for redistricting purposes.  This gives a little bump to the rural counties that tend to want to have prisons and hurts the urban areas that are the source of many of the prisoners (as crime is associated with population density).   In Nevada, we are talking an approximate prison population of around 10,000 with around half being in rural parts of Clark County and the other half being in other parts oft the state.

While it looks like the population growth was mostly in Clark County, because of the population movement within Clark County, the First District (Las Vegas) actually is projected to have the lowest population of the four districts — needing around 50-51,000 more people.  On the other hand the Third District (southern Clark County) is around 68,000 overpopulated.  Since the Third District is a toss-up district, the goal will be to move some Republicans from the Third to the First. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Utah

By tmess2 | Published June 12, 2021

Utah, like Nebraska and Kansas, is a state in which Republicans technically control the redistricting process, but geography gives the Democrats some hopes.  Where in Nebraska it was the Omaha area and in Kansas it was the Kansas City suburbs, the problem in Utah is Salt Lake City and Salt Lake County.  As in other states, the 2019 estimates from the Census bureau have the more urban Fourth District (central Utah) with too many people and the remaining districts (the First in the north, the Second in the west, and the Third in the east) with too few people.  The three less urban districts are roughly equal (with the Second having around 2,500 more people than the First and the Third), but the Fourth may need to shed over 30,000 people.

In Utah, there is an advisory commission which draws proposed maps, but the maps ultimately are drawn by the legislature.  The maps are supposed to keep communities of interest intact and minimize county splits, but Utah Republicans have already shown a willingness to blow past those state law requirements in the 2010 maps.  After 2010, the maps split Salt Lake County (large enough to have a single intact district) between three separate districts with Salt Lake City itself actually being in the Second District.  These maps carefully divide the Democratic parts of Salt Lake County and Utah County between the three districts.  In other words, the map in Utah is a perfect example of cracking.

If the map makers were trying to be proportional, it is possible to draw a district that combines the Democratic part of Salt Lake County with the Democratic part of neighboring Summit County to create a toss-up district that slightly favors the Democrats.  In short, geography gives Democrats a chance at having one toss-up district in Utah, but the Republicans are unlikely to  draw fair lines. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Nebraska

By tmess2 | Published June 6, 2021

In Nebraska, the new lines will be drawn by the Nebraska Legislature.  Nominally, the races for the legislature are non-partisan, but the general consensus is that most of the members are Republican.  As a result, the expectation is that the legislature will try to shift the lines to favor the Republicans., but, as discussed below, that might be hard for the Republicans to achieve.

After the last round of the redistricting, the Second District (Omaha) was a toss-up district.  The First District (most of the rest of Eastern Nebraska including Lincoln) was a safe Republican district — around R+10.  The Third District (the rest of the state including the Sioux City suburbs) is a solid Republican district — around R +30.  On the map, the districts look like three semi-circles with the Second being the inner core surrounded by the First which is surrounded by the Third.  It can be expected that the legislature will, where possible, try to move Republicans from the Third District into the First and from the First into the Second and to move Democrats from the Second into the First and from the First into the Third.  While not absolutely required, in the last round of redistricting the Nebraska legislature tried to honor county lines.  In the last round, that meant that the First District had a very slim sliver of Dixon County (otherwise in the Third District) and that Sarpy County was split into two halves (the eastern half  in the First District and the western half in the Second District

As has been true in other states, urban and suburban areas have grown faster than rural areas.  So the current estimates reflect that the Third District is underpopulated with the Second District being overpopulated.  (The First District is slightly overpopulated.)  The first, and easy step, is to move the part of the First that is in Dixon County into the Third District, but that is less than 800 people.  Even without those people, the Third is over 36,000 short with the First having around 7,000 excess people and the Second having around 29,000 excess people. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Maine

By tmess2 | Published June 5, 2021

In a lot of ways, the redistricting process in Maine is simple.  The Maine Constitution requires that the district lines split as few political subdivisions as possible.

The hard part of redistricting is that the process requires consensus.  The initial draft is drawn by a bipartisan commission but has to be approved by a supermajority of the state legislature.  That limits the opportunity for political gamesmanship.

Maine only has two congressional districts.  Currently, the only split county in Maine is Kennebec County, home to the state capitol of Augusta.  Currently, the First District is about 50% urban, but the Second District is only around 28% urban.  As one would expect, the current population estimates for the districts has the First District with some excess population and the Second District is a little bit short.  Assuming that the estimates are correct, that will require moving about 14,000 people from the First District into the Second District.  The only question is which precincts to move, and what might control that decision is the requirement to avoid splitting political subdivisions. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Kansas

By tmess2 | Published May 31, 2021

There are three key things to know about Kansas that will drive the redistricting process in Kansas.  First, for most purposes, Kansas is a three-party state:  the Democratic Party, a traditional Republican Party, and a Nativist-Evangelical-Trumpist Republican Party.  In state-wide elections, the two Republican parties battle in the primary.  If the winning candidate is too solidly in the wacky wing of the Republican Party (like Spawn of Satan Kris Kobach), the Democrats can win which is how Kansas now has a Democrat in the Governor’s mansion.  While that is true for state-wide elections, both versions of the Republican Party hold seats in the Kansas legislature.  And their inability to work together is how, despite having a Republican governor back in 2011-12, the last round of redistricting ended up in court.  In theory, if the two wings of the Republican Party could reach an agreement, the Republicans do have enough votes to override any veto.  So, in theory, the Republicans are in complete control of the process.  But, if the Republicans are unable to unanimously agree to a plan, they might not be able to overcome the veto.  (They have no votes to spare in the House and four votes to spare in the Senate.)

Second, Kansas is one of the states with a part-time legislature.  And the legislature has adjourned for the year.   The Governor does have the power to call a special session to deal with redistricting.  Given the Democratic minority, for the reasons discussed below, the Democrats have no incentive to call such a special session unless there is a consensus map supported by both parties.  The Republicans could force a special session, but, like a veto override, it takes two-thirds of each house to sign a petition for a special session.  As noted above, that will require every Republican in the Kansas House of Representatives to sign a petition which might not happen if the Republicans do not have maps that every Republican in the House supports.

Third, Kansas may be the rare state in which geography favors the Democrats.  For over seventy years, western Kansas has had its own congressional seat as has the south central area around Wichita.  But population change has slowly led the First District’s eastern boundary to drift eastward so that the First District now covers the vast majority of the state.  The Democratic core of the state is in the Kansas City suburbs stretching out along I-70 toward the state capitol in Topeka and the University of Kansas in Lawrence.  The First District and the Fourth District (the area around Wichita) is very red.  As a result the current Second District (the eastern part of the state, including Topeka and Lawrence but not the Kansas City suburbs) and the Third District (the Kansas City suburbs) are essentially a swing to very slightly lean Republican area.  And because the Republicans have only a slight advantage when the Second District and Third District are combined, any change to make the Third District redder would potentially put the Second District at risk.  In short, barring significant changes, the Republicans can have a 3-0 edge with one toss-up that slightly favors the Democrats or a 2-0 edge with two toss-ups that slightly favor the Republicans. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Florida

By tmess2 | Published May 30, 2021

Florida is the last of the states with the happy task of creating a new congressional district.  In states in which legislatures draft the new lines, one of the motivating factors in the new lines is legislators thinking about their future plans.   If your state house or state senate district (in other words, your base) is the core of a congressional district, you have a decent shot of winning that district if you choose to run.  And the best time to run is when the congressional seat is open.  While the decision of the incumbent to retire (or run for higher office) is one way that the seat can become open, a new seat is automatically an open seat.

Of course, new/open is not the number of the district.  It’s the geography of a district.  If an incumbent is seeking another term, they are most likely to file in the district that has their old district as the core even if the district has a new number.  (unlike Texas which has just tended to give the “new” districts the new number leading to numbers leapfrogging all over the map, Florida has tended to have the districts flow somewhat logically from the northwest to the southeast.)  If you are a member with influence wanting to run for Congress, you want:  1) no incumbent members of Congress residing in your district (although it is possible to run for a district that you do not live in); 2) no incumbent member of Congress who represented the majority of the district; 3) to have the entirety of your current legislative district in the congressional district; and 4) to have the district favor your party as strongly as possible.  In theory, under the Florida Constitution, the new lines are not supposed to be drawn to unfairly favor either party or to protect incumbents.  And while courts can intervene if the legislature goes too far, the odds that any partisan legislature will strictly obey those constitutional provisions are slim approaching none.

These types of concerns influence redistricting in every state.  Unfortunately, to address those personal concerns of those drawing the lines would require knowing the local politics of every state.  Instead, these articles assume that the main concern is the battle between maximizing partisan advantage (in those states with legislatures in charge) versus trying to draw proportional and competitive lines (in those states with commissions in charge).    With the current map (drawn after the courts struck down the previous map as too partisan), the state is actually roughly proportional.  The Republicans have a 16-10 advantage (with one Democratic seat vacant), but the map is theoretically 14-13. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — North Carolina

By tmess2 | Published May 29, 2021

North Carolina could very well be ground zero of litigation over partisan gerrymanders in this cycle.  In North Carolina, bills changing district lines are not subject to veto by the Governor.  When they had to redraw district lines in 2016, the state legislature was brutally honest that their main criteria was to maximize the number of Republican districts — drawing a 10-3 map only because it was impossible to draw an 11-2 map.  The North Carolina courts struck down that map.  The legislature then drew a map that resulted in an 8-5 delegation that survived review.  In short, what we will see happening in North Carolina this year is likely to be the Republicans in the legislature drawing the most aggressive map that they think can survive a court challenge followed by the state courts deciding if the map was an improper partisan gerrymander.

Given that the current lines are what the Republicans drew after the previous lines were struck down in 2019, they probably represent a base map for what the new map will look like.  (The software that I use to guesstimate maps does not have these new lines as an overlay.  So I had to eyeball the lines from the map.  There are a lot of split counties so the below combines districts with split counties together rather than trying to guess exactly how much each district is over or under the new average district — i.e. the target number.  In addition, as noted in previous posts, as the official county, city, and precinct populations have not been released by the Census Bureau yet, this software uses the last population estimate from the Census Bureau which will be somewhat off.)

Over in the eastern part of the state, the First District (lean Democrat) and the Third District (solid Republican) are a combined 5,000-10,000 over the target number for a fourteen-district map.  In other words, there might be a minor adjustment of where the lines are in Pitt County (currently split between the two) and some of Vance County (currently split between the First and the Fourth) will get bumped into the Fourth (which will then need to shed some population to the south and west). Continue Reading...

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