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Recent Posts
- Election Night Preview — Part Five — The Local News and the West Coast (11:00 To 11:59 P.M. Eastern)
- Election Night Preview — Part Four — Prime Time Hour Three (10:00 to 10:59 P.M. Eastern)
- Election Night Preview — Part Three — Prime Time Hour Two (9:00 To 9:59 P.M. Eastern)
- Election Night Preview — Part Two — Prime Time Hour One (8:00 to 8:59 p.m. Eastern)
- Exit Polls and Projections
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Tag Archives: appropriations
Once More Into the Chaos
Your parent’s Republican Party is dead. The center-right politicians that used to be the leaders of the Republican Party are now called RINOs by the forces that staged a hostile takeover of the party. And like many hostile takeovers, what is left is simply a brand name that is a shell of what it used to be. If the Republican Party was a business, consumers would simply gradually realize that its product and services had declined and would eventually switch to competitors. While the workers and customers of that company would suffer during the death spiral, it would have limited impact on the rest of us.
Unfortunately, a political party is not a company, and the death spiral of a political party can have significant impact on everyone. And we are seeing that play out in real time in Washington.
Once again, we are facing the inability of the Republican Party to be able to unite behind a leader. In a functioning party, the choice of a leader is an internal party decision, and, when the time arrives for the whole House to confirm the majority party’s leader, the members of that party support its chosen leader. Because the modern Republican Party is not really a political party and is instead a disjointed collection of individual attention seekers vying to be the most outrageous, it is almost impossible to get 218 Republicans on the same page.
Posted in House of Representatives
Also tagged Jim Jordan, Kevin McCarthy, Speaker election, Steve Scalise, Ukraine
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Supreme Court Preview — October Term 2023 — Part 1
We are three weeks away from the First Monday in October which means that the Supreme Court will soon be back in session. Putting to the side the continued questions about the ethical failings of certain ultra-conservative justices (who unfortunately would never be convicted by the Senate even in the unlikely event that the more ethically-challenged Republican caucus in the House would actually allow articles of impeachment to pass), that means time to look ahead to the politically-significant cases on this year’s docket.
For a brief refresher, during its annual term, the U.S. Supreme Court sits in seven argument sessions. Each of these argument sessions lasts for two weeks. After five of these argument sessions, the U.S. Supreme Court takes a two-week break (with longer breaks over the holidays and after the January argument session). Typically, for ease of convenience, the sessions are referred to as the October, November, December, January, February, March, and April sessions even though some sessions will begin in one month and conclude in another month (like the November session this year which will begin on October 30). During the argument session, the Supreme Court hears oral arguments on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. If one of those days is a holiday, that day is skipped. There is no firm rule (as the Supreme Court will make adjustments if the docket requires it), but a “full” docket will have two arguments in the morning on each day. Subject to adjustment if a third party (usually the Solicitor General if a case involves a federal statute) is permitted to argue, the party that lost below gets thirty minutes to argue and answer questions followed by thirty minutes for the party that won below followed by a brief rebuttal argument by the party that lost below.
On the Friday before the argument session, the justices meet to review pending petitions for review and to finalize any opinions to be released the following week. There are similar conferences on the Fridays on the weeks in which there are arguments at which the justices also discuss the arguments that were heard that week and take an initial vote on those cases which is used to assign a justice to write an opinion. On the Mondays of argument week (and the Monday after the argument week), the Supreme Court releases on order list announcing the decision on pending petitions for review. In the early part of the term, there might be a separate list announcing the cases accepted for review on Friday to give the parties additional time to start preparing their briefs (the written arguments on the case) as the time schedule gets rather tight for completing the briefs before the oral argument. Because of those time limits on the written briefs, the January argument session is effectively the cut-off date for a case being heard during the term. If review is granted after January, the case is held for the following term. Thus, the cases that we are about to discuss are those that the Supreme Court granted review on between February and June. (On rare occasions, as it did for one case this year, the Supreme Court may add a case during its summer recess, but the norm is that — other than emergency matters — the period between July 1 and October 1 is quiet.) The cases that they will accept (some of which may be discussed in Part III of this preview) in the next several weeks will be argued in the second half of this term.
Posted in Civil Rights, House of Representatives, Judicial
Also tagged Americans with Disabilities Act, Entitlements, Equal Protection, Free Speech, redistricting, Second Amendment, Social Security, Supreme Court
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Legal Issues Related to the Debt Ceiling
With the Republicans once again playing a game of chicken with the debt limit, there has been a lot of chatter about options that the Biden Administration has if the Republicans continue to make unreasonable demands.
To understand the legal issues, it is necessary to understand the different legislative actions related to the debt ceiling. First, there are the laws related to the budget process. There are two key aspects to these laws, the first requires Congress to annually pass a budget resolution. The problem with this law is that one Congress is unable to bind a future Congress. So Congress does not always pass a budget resolution. The key thing to remember is that a budget resolution is a concurrent resolution which means that it has to pass both houses but does not go to the President. In other words, it is not a law. Instead, the impact of the concurrent resolution is internal to the legislative process. The budget resolution sets the broad limits for the two Appropriations Committees in drafting the annual appropriations bills. Additionally, if a budget resolution passes, the budget resolution triggers the reconciliation process which allows the Senate to pass budget related bills without having to overcome the filibuster. A budget resolution (like the President’s budget proposal which starts the budget process) will typically contain estimates/target numbers for the other components of the budget. The budget laws also restrict the ability of the President to refuse to spend or to reallocate the money allocated in the budget.
And here is where we get to the actual laws at issue. In thinking of the budget, there are three types of laws. In any budget, there are two sides of the equation: 1) income/revenue; and 2) expenditures. For the most part, the laws on the income side of the equation are tax laws. (There are certain other things like mineral leases on federal land and user fees at federal facilities, but the primary source of revenue is from taxes). By its nature, revenue is not entirely predictable. If every investor tomorrow decided that now was a good time to sell their current stock holdings and buy an entirely new stock, that decision would trigger a significant amount of capital gains and capital losses which in turn would dramatically alter the total income taxes received by the federal government. But, while there is a degree of unpredictability, there is also a good amount of predictability — subject to changes in the economic climate. In other words, the revenue estimate for any given year will be close but not exact.
Posted in Disaster, Economy, Judicial
Also tagged budget, Debt Ceiling, Fourteenth Amendment, platinum coin
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Budget 101
On Tuesday, Congress returns from their August “District Work Period” — a/k/a Summer Vacation. Normally, September in Congress is about appropriations bills, but this year September is going to be even more hectic due to the U.S. nearing its debt ceiling and other budget issues. To explain this year’s mess, a little budget 101.
Like the typical household budget, the government’s budget consists of revenue/income and expenditures/spending. However, the government’s revenue consists mostly of taxes. While a handful of taxes have sunset provisions (i.e. they expire at a certain point in time unless Congress passes a new law extending them), most taxes are permanent (i.e. it takes a new law to change the tax). But how much revenue is raised by a given tax in a given year depends upon multiple circumstances (how many people with large estates die, how the economy is doing, how much of certain goods are imported). So for budgeting purposes, revenue is always an estimate.
Similar, on the expenditure side, there are “mandatory” expenses (think the equivalent of mortgage and car payments) and “discretionary” expenditure (think groceries, you have to spend something but you can decide whether to go store brands or name brands depending upon how your finances are). On the mandatory side, for the government are interest payments and what is commonly called entitlements. Entitlements have gotten a bad name from conservative spinmeisters, but the term is a legal term reflecting that, if somebody meets the legal criteria for a particular program, they have a legally enforceable right to receive the payments from that program whether that program is Social Security, unemployment compensation, or Medicaid. The discretionary side on the hand is most federal agencies. Representing about 25-33% of total spending, Congress has to annually appropriate the money for these agencies (ranging from the military to the national endowment for the arts).
Posted in Federal Budget
Also tagged budget resolution, Byrd Rule, Debt Ceiling, fiscal year
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