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Recent Posts
- Election Night Preview — Part Six (Post-Midnight Eastern)
- Election Night Preview — Part Five — The Local News and the West Coast (11:00 To 11:59 P.M. Eastern)
- Election Night Preview — Part Four — Prime Time Hour Three (10:00 to 10:59 P.M. Eastern)
- Election Night Preview — Part Three — Prime Time Hour Two (9:00 To 9:59 P.M. Eastern)
- Election Night Preview — Part Two — Prime Time Hour One (8:00 to 8:59 p.m. Eastern)
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Tag Archives: Coronavirus
What if they gave a Convention and Nobody came?
Last evening the first community based US coronavirus case was announced. There is never just one. And so, just like flu hits different areas of the country at different times, there will be pockets and hot spots, and then they’ll clear and there will be others.
In China, the first cases arose in November of 2019. (Yes, that’s correct, not December.) It was noticed by medical personnel in December, who were silenced by the regime (and several later died), and not “believed” by the Xi regime until late January, when they began locking down China. It is now two months later, and China is still in partial lock-down. It will take another few months, at least, to get back to full speed.
The difference between China (and Italy, Iran, South Korea and Japan) is that we know it’s coming, and we are learning every day from what those countries do what works and what doesn’t. And we know the best possible thing to do is to test people, and the worst possible thing to do is to place large numbers of people in an enclosed space. Like, um, a political convention with people coming from all over the country, and journalists coming from other countries.
Posted in 2020 Convention, 2020DNC, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Notes from Your Doctor, Pandemic
Also tagged 2020DNC, COVID-19, pandemic
3 Comments
Notes from Your Doctor: Preparing for Pandemic
When not if…that was the word from CDC yesterday, and they’re correct. Covid-19, aka coronavirus is here, and it will at some point be “community based” meaning that it will spread from person to person amoungst people who have not been to any of the affected areas, and were not repatriated.
Is it time to panic? No.
It is, however, time to prepare.
Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Notes from Your Doctor, Pandemic
Also tagged COVID-19, pandemic
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Notes from your Doctor: Good News on 2019-nCoV
In tracking the numbers of the epidemic, there is some good news flying under the radar. While the number of infections is increasing, and could potentially increase exponentially in the next couple weeks, the number of recovered patients, and the rate of increase of recovery is much quicker than the increase in the number of patient deaths.
These numbers are order of magnitude, since they change at least hourly. But in a broad stroke, the number of worldwide infections went up from about 15,000 on Sunday to about 20,000 on Tuesday (ET, China is a day ahead) with 13% in serious condition. Deaths over the same period increased from about 360 to 425 (20% increase), while recoveries increased from about 450 to about 725 (60% increase).
This, combined with the number of infections outside of China that are mild or asymptomatic lead to two conclusions: yes, it’s spreading and community based transmission is likely, BUT it’s likely that it will end up with a mortality rate of under 0.5%. In simple terms, this means while the probability of infection is increasing, the chances of the disease being survivable and potentially mild is also increasing.
Posted in 2019-nCoV, Public Health
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Notes from your Doctor: nCoV Update 2_2_20
There are now more than 100,000 suspected cases of nCoV worldwide, the majority in China, but the number of confirmed cases is less than 20,000. The count of confirmed cases, deaths and recoveries is updated hourly by the folks at Johns Hopkins at this link.
There are a lot of medical and public health concerns, but there are also political and economic affects that will impact all of us whether or not we ever come in contact with 2019-nCoV.
But first…since my first post on this a week ago, I’ve heard from people who are starting to panic. Now is NOT time to panic. It’s time to be smart, to ignore the falsehoods about this illness, and to follow standard infection controls that you should be following anyway….when it’s time to panic, I’ll let you know. So, NO this is not a bioweapon, and NO you can’t get it from drinking Corona beer, and NO there is no specific treatment made from saline solutions. You can check the list of all the fake news on 2019-nCov here.
Posted in 2019-nCoV, Notes from Your Doctor, Public Health, Uncategorized
Also tagged epidemic, nCoV, pandemic, public health
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Notes From Your Doctor: 2019-nCoV Update
As of 29 January, the number of infections in mainland China has now surpassed the total number of SARS infections, albeit with a death rate two-thirds lower. There are signs that this will soon be a pandemic, as the R0 number appears to be increasing.
The most disturbing thing I’ve seen comes from a study in The Lancet indicating some issues with the initial information from the Chinese government. Whereas China had said that all the initial infections were tied to the Wet Market in Wuhan, the Lancet article indicates that only 66% had visited the market, and that the onset of symptoms in the first patient was earlier than reported. With a two-week incubation, this sets onset back to November.
As an aside, I had never heard the term “wet market” until a few days ago. It turns out that it refers to any market that sells animals, dead animals or produce, as opposed to a “dry market” which sells only durable goods like clothing and electronics. Learning is life-long.
Posted in Healthcare, Notes from Your Doctor, Public Health
Also tagged 2019-nCoV, Wuhan
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Notes from your Doctor: The Wuhan Coronavirus
W.H.O. is determining whether to designate the outbreak of 2019-nCoV as an international public health emergency. Sadly, W.H.O. has put this determination off for at least 10 days, the same sort of cowardly “watch and see” that allowed other diseases to fester and spread. W.H.O. never seems to learn. We know that there is airborne human to human transmission, and that there is a true risk of a pandemic, so let’s look at what you can do to protect yourself, as there’s no doubt that the first American patient won’t be the last.
On the upside, this coronavirus is less virulent than SARS or MERS, meaning that there is a lower probability of death. However, it is still mutating, so we don’t know how it will end up.
As I wrote back when SARS, MERS, Zika, Swine Flu, Bird Flu and other viruses started spreading: fingers, nails, fingers, fingers, fingers. Which means wash your hands. And not just your palms – but your fingers, your nails and then your fingers over and over. You should wash your hands for a minimum of 20 seconds. You should do this every chance you get, it will decrease your probability of all sorts of illnesses. In fact, per an internal paper from the CDC, if every American washed his/her hands properly a minimum of 10 times a day, the incidence of non-venereal communicable disease would decrease by 90% over 30 days nationwide. Believe it or not, washing your hands is even more important than wearing one of those paper masks.
Posted in Public Health
Also tagged pandemic
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