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Recent Posts
- Election Night Preview — Part Five — The Local News and the West Coast (11:00 To 11:59 P.M. Eastern)
- Election Night Preview — Part Four — Prime Time Hour Three (10:00 to 10:59 P.M. Eastern)
- Election Night Preview — Part Three — Prime Time Hour Two (9:00 To 9:59 P.M. Eastern)
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Tag Archives: Dean Phillips
August 13 Primaries — Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, Wisconsin
As we are nearing the mid-way point of the summer primaries, there are four states with primaries during this upcoming week — Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin. However, compared to some previous weeks, this week should be relatively low on drama.
Connecticut is one of those states that uses party conventions as a screening tool for the primary. There are two ways to get on the primary ballot — getting enough votes at the party convention or getting enough signatures on a petition. There are only two primaries on the ballot (at least above the state legislative level), both on the Republican side — one for U.S. Senate and one for the Fourth District. However, neither of the Republican candidates for Senate are funded at anywhere near the level that would make them a viable general election candidate. While the two candidates in the Fourth have some money, the Fourth District is solidly Democratic. In other words, neither or these primaries will make much difference in November.
Minnesota has some primaries that might be significant.
Posted in Elections, House of Representatives, Primary Elections
Also tagged Amy Klobuchar, Andre Jacques, Angie Craig, Bernie Sanders, Connecticut, Don Samuels, Eric Hovde, Ilhan Omar, James Roth, Joe Tierab, Joseph Fraser, Katrina Shankland, Michelle Fischbach, Mike Gallagher, Minnesota, Phill Scott, Rebecca Cooke, Royce White, Taylor Rahm, Tony Wied, Vermont, Wisconsin
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2024 Primaries — Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, and Oregon (and California Special Election)
This week several states have primaries, but it is unlikely that many of them will be significant. In addition, we have the runoff in California for Kevin McCarthy’s old seat.
Starting with the special election in California. Under the top two system in California, the Republicans got both slots in the runoff. So when the results are finally certified in June, the Republicans will go back up to 218 seats. The only issue is which Republican gets the slot — McCarthy’s handpicked successor (Vince Fong) or County Sheriff Michael Boudreaux. This is likely to be a low turnout election which means that anything could happen. The same two candidates have made the general election in November which will have much higher turnout, but the winner on Tuesday will have a major advantage for the November election.
Georgia had to redraw districts to comply with the Voting Rights Act, but Republicans in the legislature solved that issue by simply redrawing the map so that the Democratic district was majority-minority and making the Republican district whiter (with the numbers flipped). Thus, the end result in Georgia is likely to be the same. For the most part, incumbents are likely to prevail, but some incumbents ended up with significantly altered districts. Additionally, the Third District is an open seat. Starting with the Third District, this rural district in western Georgia will almost certainly go Republican in November. There are five candidates running. The most likely outcome on Tuesday will be a runoff. The top three candidates in fundraising are Mike Crane, Michael Dugan, and Brian Jack, and it is likely that two of the three will make the runoff. The other race of interest is the Sixth District. This race is the one most likely impacted by the redrawing of the lines. Representative Lucy McBath currently represents the Seventh District. That district was chopped up to avoid the Democrats gaining a seat in redistricting, and Representative McBath is now running in the Sixth District. As best as I can tell, there is no overlap between the new Sixth and the old Seventh. While Representative McBath will be favored in this race, there is a chance of an upset. Unfortunately, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene did not draw any primary opponents and thus is likely to be back for another term.
Posted in Elections, House of Representatives, Primary Elections
Also tagged Brian Jack, California, Dana Edwards, Eduardo Morales, Georgia, Hal Rogers, Idaho, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, Janelle Bynum, Kentucky, Kevin McCarthy, Kurt Schrader, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Lucy McBath, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Maxine Dexter, Michael Boudreaux, Michael Dugan, Mike Crane, Oregon, Susheela Jayapal, Vince Fong
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2024 Presidential Primaries — South Carolina Republicans and Michigan
As we head into the last week of February, we are also reaching the end of the authorized early primaries. Under the respective rules of the two parties, there is a preliminary window in which only some states were authorized to hold early primaries/caucuses. For the Republicans, the “regular” primary window opens on March 1. For Democrats, the “regular” primary window opens on the first Tuesday in March (March 5).
For this last week, we have three primaries on the book. First up, today, is the South Carolina Republican primary. South Carolina law allows the parties to choose the date of their own primary, and the two parties have tended to choose different dates (but usually a Saturday). And so we had the Democratic primary several weeks back which was won by President Joe Biden. Now, it’s the Republican primary. While there are seven candidates on the ballot, two of them are not known nationally, and three of the nationally-known candidates have dropped out. In other words, while five of the candidates may get some votes, there are only two with any chance of winning delegates — former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and a candidate who ineligible to be president, Donald Trump. South Carolina Republicans use a “winner-take-most” system for allocating delegates. In other words, each congressional district has three delegates and whomever wins that district gets all three delegates. Likewise, there are twenty-nine at-large delegates, and whomever wins the state gets all twenty-nine delegates. Especially with only two serious candidates in the races, whomever wins statewide will have won at least one congressional district (and probably will have won more than one). Thus, the winner of the primary is guaranteed to take at least 32 of the 50 delegates (which is why this type of system is referred to as winner-take-most). Despite the fact that Nikki Haley used to be the governor of South Carolina, the traditional Republican Party in South Carolina is dead and has been replaced by the Trump Party. While anybody who did not vote in the Democratic Primary could theoretically vote in the Republican Primary, there probably will not be enough independents and Democrats voting to save the Republican Party from itself. Polls show Donald Trump leading by a wide enough margin that he should win all fifty delegates, and the only question is whether Nikki Haley can make it close enough to steal a district or two.
On Tuesday, we will primaries for both parties in Michigan. President Joe Biden should win the state easily. Neither Representative Dean Phillips nor Marianne Williamson is a serious contender to reach the fifteen percent to win delegates. The real contender to take delegates away from President Biden is “uncommitted.” Representative Rashida Tlaib has been encouraging voters to vote for uncommitted in protest of President Biden’s middle of the road stance on Israel’s response to Hamas’s invasion of Israel. While the pro-Palestinian progressive wing of the Democratic Party has a problem with Israel trying to remove Hamas from the Gaza Strip, if President Biden were to do what they want him to do, it would guarantee Donald Trump’s victory in November. If uncommitted stays below 15% (state-wide or in any individual district), President Biden will win all of the delegates (state-wide or in that district). The largest districts have seven delegates; so it is unlikely that uncommitted will get more than one delegate in any individual district. The one exception to that might be Representative Tlaib’s district. And the issue in that district will be whether uncommitted can get to the 21% necessary to win a second delegate. If uncommitted does not win any delegates in that district, we could see a primary challenge to Representative Tlaib emerge. State-wide, there are twenty-five at-large delegates and fifteen party-leader delegates. As such, if uncommitted were to get to fifteen percent state-wide, uncommitted would get, at least, four at-large and two party-leader delegates. But the expectation is that President Biden will win almost all of the 117 delegates at stake on Tuesday.
Posted in Donald Trump, Elections, Primary Elections
Also tagged Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Marianne Williamson, Michigan, Nikki Haley, Rashida Tlaib, South Carolina
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South Carolina Recap
While the numbers are not yet “official” (as folks may remember from 2020, it takes a couple of weeks to formally certify the votes), the unofficial results from South Carolina are crystal clear. There were minor variations from county to county (mostly in who finished second), but the major story of the evening was relatively consistent. In every county, President Joe Biden finished somewhere in the mid-90s, and Marainne Williamson and Representative Dean Phillips were splitting the remaining vote (each getting in the low single digits). As a result, neither Ms. Williamson nor Representative Phillips came close to getting the 15% required to win delegates in any congressional district or statewide.
Tomorrow night, we will see if this result is duplicated in Nevada. But, if it wasn’t clear before this weekend, it should be clear now. President Biden will be the Democratic nominee this fall despite the wishful thinking and conspiracy theories put out by the Trumpists. And given the economic numbers, President Biden should be renominated and should be elected. While the U.S. did have inflation rise after the COVID pandemic, the same happened in every major industrial economy due to disruptions caused by the pandemic (followed by the war in Ukraine). Compared to other countries (including some run by conservative governments), the U.S. did above average. Meanwhile, while higher than before, interest rates in the U.S. are still below historical averages, and we have a growing economy with low unemployment. On the economic numbers, President Biden is doing as well or better than most presidents have in their first term. And it is the job of Democrats to make sure that the good news on the economy gets out and outweighs the pessimism that frequently is found in economic reporting.
Posted in Primary and Caucus Results
Also tagged Joe Biden, Marianne Williamson, South Carolina
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Presidential Primaries — South Carolina, Nevada, and Virgin Islands
Over the next week, we will have four/five primary contests for the two parties. (Four if you only count the binding contests, five if you count the beauty contests.) This list includes the first two sanctioned contests on the Democratic side.
First up is today’s Democratic primary in South Carolina. South Carolina is a little bit different from the rest of the country. While South Carolina has a state-run primary, it allows the parties to choose the date of its own presidential primary. As a result, it is not unusual for the two parties to choose different days. (That flexibility allowed the Democratic National Committee to place South Carolina at the start of the primary schedule.) The Democrats will hold their primary today, but the Republicans will not hold their primary for another three weeks.
As with most other states, the Democratic primary is essentially multiple primaries at the same time. There are, effectively, two state-wide primaries — one for at-large delegates and one for “pledged party leader and elected officials” (PLEO) delegates. Meanwhile, there is a primary in each congressional district. Voters will cast only one vote, but it will be counted in each of the relevant contests. For each of these races, the key number is 15%. Any candidate who gets 15% will get at least one delegate from that pool of delegate.
Posted in Presidential Candidates, Primary and Caucus Results, Primary Elections
Also tagged Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Marianne Williamson, Nevada, Nikki Haley, South Carolina, Virgin Islands
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New Hampshire Primary
Today is round two for the Republicans with the New Hampshire Primary. Because primary dates are set by state law, there will also be a non-binding primary (a/k/a “beauty contest”) on the Democratic side (more on that below).
While there will be other candidates on the ballot, there are only two major candidates on the Republican side — Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. Given that New Hampshire has a semi-open primary in which independents can vote in either party’s primary, it is believed that there will be a significant number of “moderates” who opt to vote in the Republican primary. If there is a chance for Nikki Haley to win nationally, she needs a win in New Hampshire. Given Trump’s many issues (legal, physical, mental), the Republicans really do not need the chaos that would ensue if Trump “wins” the nomination but has to withdraw before the convention. (And while it is hard to project what the Supreme Court intends to do, it is easier for them to do the legally correct thing if Trump is not the presumptive Republican nominee.) New Hampshire is a proportional state, so unless Haley or Trump blows the other out of the water what really matters here is the perception that Haley can compete and beat Trump than the actual delegate count.)
On the Democratic side, the timing of the New Hampshire primary (set by state law) violates the national delegate selection rules. As a result, the primary is a non-binding primary. Because the New Hampshire Democratic Party has decided to resist the national rules and support the unenforceable state law mandating that other states let New Hampshire goes first, New Hampshire has had its delegate total reduced to ten delegates. More importantly, we do not yet have an approved plan for how those delegates will be chosen.
Posted in Joe Biden, NH Primary, Primary and Caucus Results, Primary Elections
Also tagged Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Marianne Williamson, New Hampshire, Nikki Haley
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