Tag Archives: Debbie Wasserman-Schultz

August 20 Primaries — Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming

As we conclude the August primaries (there are runoffs next week in Oklahoma, but nothing above the state legislative level), the main focus will be on Florida.  Yes there are primaries in Alaska and Wyoming, but they will have little impact on November.

In Alaska, the only statewide or Congressional primary is for the one house seat.  However, Alaska uses  a top four primary.  Barring a major upset, the top three are all but set.  Democratic Representative Mary Peltola might lose in November, but she will get well beyond the 20% needed to be assured of a spot in the top four.  The top two Republicans are two-time third-placed candidate Nick Begich and Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom.  It is possible that whomever of these two gets fewer votes might only end up in the mid to high teens.  If there were five strong candidates, that might be fatal to making the top four.  But there aren’t five strong candidates and a number in the mid-teens will probably be good enough for a top four finish.  Beyond those three, nobody has raised significant funds.  Somebody will do good enough to finish four and make the general, and that somebody might get some funds to run a general election campaign.  But that candidate is unlikely to get enough votes in November to avoid being the first candidate out in ranked-choice voting.

In Wyoming, there will be primaries on the Republican side for both the Senate and the House.  One of the two challengers in the Senate has raised a significant amount of money, but there is no indication that there is significant grassroots opposition to either incumbent.  My expectation is that both incumbents will have comfortable wins on Tuesday. Continue Reading...

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Senate Primaries: Arizona and Florida

US SenateIn the weeks since the nominating conventions, a lot has happened.  Trump royally blew the immediate post-convention period and re-shuffled his staff.  U.S. athletes, for the most part, had a strong showing at the Olympics.  And many states have held primary elections for state and federal offices.  There are about two more weeks of primaries left.  (Except for Louisiana which does not really have a primary election, and a special primary election for one district in New York, the last primaries will be held on September 13. )  This week, we have the Senate primaries in two states that are seen as potential Senate battlegrounds in November:  Arizona and Florida.

In Arizona, the Democratic candidate — Representative Ann Kirkpatrick — is running unopposed.  The potentially interesting primary is the Republican primary.  Senator John McCain is facing three opponents — one of whom has semi-withdrawn, urging voters to support whichever candidate is most likely to defeat McCain.

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