Tag Archives: Exit polls

Exit Polls and Projections

While working through this year’s “what to expect on election night” posts, it occurred to me that it would be a good idea to do a brief refresher on exit polls and projections.

To start with, projections have no legal meaning.  Legally, there is no winner until several weeks after the election when canvassing boards certify the official results.  Instead, a projection is a media company’s prediction of who will be the winner once all votes are counted.

In practice, all of the media companies isolate their projection team from those reporting the election results.  Thus, the number crunchers do not know what the talking heads are saying.  On the other hand, the number crunchers aren’t idiots.  They know what the expectations are and what races are probably going to determine who wins. Continue Reading...

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Election Night 2016 — What to Look For (Part One)

VotingBoothImage_0After over one year of hate-filled rants from Donald Trump, the fiasco that was the Republican convention in Cleveland, the on-going scandals involving Donald Trump, Trump’s refusal to disclose his taxes, three presidential debates, and recent Republican threats to throw a tantrum for the next two to four years if they don’t win, there is little more that can be said about why the only choice in this election is to vote for the Democratic ticket.  The continued loss of rationality and respect for facts in the Republican Party is a long-term problem that needs to be fixed because democracy requires, at least, two viable alternatives to work.  But this year, the choice is clear.  Even if you think that a Democratic candidate for a particular office is less than perfect, those candidates are still way better than what the Republican Party is offering.  While there is still more to be done over the next three days to get every Democratic voter to the polls, Tuesday night is now looming ever closer.  So, for the next several days, some thoughts about what to look for on Tuesday night.  While the remaining posts in this series will take a chronological look at Tuesday night, this post is more about the basics and the mechanics.

For the media, there are two main tools for calling the election.  While these tools have changed slightly over time, the fundamentals have basically stayed the same.  The first tool is the “exit” poll.  The second tool is the unofficial vote count.

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