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Tag Archives: Florida
Election Night Preview — Part Six (Post-Midnight Eastern)
Prior to Midnight, the polls will have closed in forty-eight states and the District of Columbia. All that is left to close are Hawaii and Alaska. Hawaii closes at midnight Eastern (7;00 p.m. local). Polls close at 8:00 p.m. local time in Alaska. For most of the state, that is midnight Eastern. But the Aleutian Islands are in a separate time zone and will close at 1:00 a.m. Eastern.
In Hawaii, the first big chunk of returns will be the early votes, but those are not reported until all polling places have actually closed. As such, it may be an hour or more before results are released. The release of results will be a little bit slower than Alaska.
The biggest race out of these two states is the congressional seat for Alaska, currently held by Democrat Mary Peltola. One factor that will delay a projection in this race is that Alaska uses ranked-choice voting. The Republicans in Alaska have pretty well demonstrated that they do not know how to run a race with ranked choice voting. Thus, rather than running two strong candidates and having the candidates encourage their supporters to rank the other candidate second, the Republicans have had their second candidate withdraw. Not having two candidates attacking Representative Peltola is a strategic mistake. But because the Republicans have cleared the field, it is unlikely that there will be many votes for the remaining candidates on the ballot. A good rule of thumb for ranked choice voting is that a candidate who finishes in second on first preferences is unlikely to have a net gain more than 1% for every 2% of the vote that went to the eliminated candidates. Representative Peltola received a majority of the vote in the primary, but that is now guarantee that she will get a majority of the first preference votes in the general election. It is entirely possible that we will not know the winner until after all counts are voted and preferences are applied, but the history of ranked choice voting in Australia is that, in most races, there is a clear winner with a sufficiently large margin in first preferences that the second-placed candidate can’t realistically catch-up.
Posted in Elections, General Election Forecast, House of Representatives, Senate
Also tagged Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Donald Trump, Ed Case, Georgia, Hawaii, Iowa, Jill Tokuda, Kamala Harris, Mary Peltoal, Mazie Hirono, Michigan, Minimum wage, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Ranked Choice Voting, Texas, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin
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Election Night Preview — Part I — Pre-Prime Time
The U.S. is somewhat unique among major democracies in having national elections run by state governments (which in turn mostly delegate the actual running of the election to local governments). While Congress has set a uniform election day for federal offices (including the election of presidential electors) and most states have decided to hold state and county elections at the same time, each state gets to choose the time when polls close in that state. In other countries, there is either a uniform closing time (mostly in countries with a single time zone) or polls close at the same local time (creating a gradual move from east to west with additional polls closing every hour). The result in the U.S. is that rather than a stately progression, you have something of a zig zag.
But this zig zag process creates a rolling story for election night (and creates a way for us to break down what to look for on election night. In this (and following posts), I will designate poll closing times by local and Eastern Daylight times.
Putting to the side the territories, polls start to close at 6:00 p.m. Eastern (which is also 6:00 p.m. local time) in the parts of Kentucky and Indiana in the Eastern Time zone. These two states are deep red and very gerrymandered. In other words, there should be nothing to see in these two states. Indiana has an open Senate seat as the current Senator is running for governor and one of the Republican representatives is running for the Senate seat. But this state is not on any body’s list of states likely to flip even though the candidate the Republicans nominated for lieutenant governor is extremely controversial (which could make the race for Governor/Lieutenant Governor closer than it otherwise would be). And none of the House seats in the Eastern time zone are competitive with the closest race having a PVI of R +11. The only seat worth watching in Indiana’s first district which is mostly in the central time zone. That district is only D+3, but the Republican candidate is viewed as a long shot. The early votes are in the more Republican half of the district. So the first hour or so of return may make the race look close, but, by the end of the night, the Democrat should be up by 10% or more. In Kentucky, there are no Senate races or state races and the two closest races are +9 PVIs. In other words, if anything is happening with the House seats in either state or the statewide races in Indiana, that could be a sign that polls are very off. The most significant races in these two states are two ballot questions in Kentucky. One is a “throw red meat to the base” proposal to ban voting by non-citizens (which is already illegal). The other would allow public funding for private schools (which would include religious schools).
Posted in Elections, General Election Forecast
Also tagged Abigail Spanberger, Anna Luna, Bernie Moreno, Bernie Sanders, Dan Bishop, Donald Davis, Donald Trump, Emilia Sykes, Eugene Vindaman, Georgia, Greg Landsman, Indiana, Jim Justice, Joe Manchin, Josh Stein, Kamala Harris, Kentucky, Marcy Katpur, Maria Salazar, marijuana, Matt Gaetz, Nancy Mace, North Carolina, Ohio, Phil Scott, Rebecca Baint, reproductive freedom, Rick Scott, Sherrod Brown, South Carolina, Tim Kaine, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia
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August 20 Primaries — Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming
As we conclude the August primaries (there are runoffs next week in Oklahoma, but nothing above the state legislative level), the main focus will be on Florida. Yes there are primaries in Alaska and Wyoming, but they will have little impact on November.
In Alaska, the only statewide or Congressional primary is for the one house seat. However, Alaska uses a top four primary. Barring a major upset, the top three are all but set. Democratic Representative Mary Peltola might lose in November, but she will get well beyond the 20% needed to be assured of a spot in the top four. The top two Republicans are two-time third-placed candidate Nick Begich and Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom. It is possible that whomever of these two gets fewer votes might only end up in the mid to high teens. If there were five strong candidates, that might be fatal to making the top four. But there aren’t five strong candidates and a number in the mid-teens will probably be good enough for a top four finish. Beyond those three, nobody has raised significant funds. Somebody will do good enough to finish four and make the general, and that somebody might get some funds to run a general election campaign. But that candidate is unlikely to get enough votes in November to avoid being the first candidate out in ranked-choice voting.
In Wyoming, there will be primaries on the Republican side for both the Senate and the House. One of the two challengers in the Senate has raised a significant amount of money, but there is no indication that there is significant grassroots opposition to either incumbent. My expectation is that both incumbents will have comfortable wins on Tuesday.
Posted in Elections, House of Representatives, Senate
Also tagged Alaska, Anna Luna, Debbie Murcasel-Powell, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, Jared Moskowitz, Lois Frankel, Maria Salazar, Mary Peltola, Matt Gaetz, Mike Haridopolis, Nancy Dahlstrom, Nick Begich, Rick Scott, Vern Buchana, Whitney Fox, Wyoming
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Voting Rights Act — A Glimmer of Hope
On Thursday, the United Supreme Court issued its opinion in Allen v. Milligan, a case in which Alabama voters challenged the state’s new congressional district lines under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. As people may remember, due to COVID and the resulting delay in the 2020 census, Alabama completed its redistricting process shortly before filing began. Although the voters quickly filed their case, and the three-judge panel quickly heard the challenge and issued its decision, a 5-4 majority decided that any change caused by any new lines issued by the judges would be too close to the start of the election process (but that the legislation changing the lines was not) for the judge-drawn lines to be used in the 2022 election. So the 2022 election was held under the new lines drawn by the legislature while the U.S. Supreme Court decided whether those lines were valid. In its ruling this week, five justices (with Justice Kavanaugh switching sides and Justice Jackson replacing Justice Breyer) upheld the trial court ruling.
To start with the legal considerations, Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act bars any voting practice or procedure that causes a protected group to “have less opportunity than other” groups “to elect representatives of their choice.” While Section 2 also contains language disavowing an express requirement of proportionality, previous cases have found that Section 2 applies to redistricting and that it requires those bodies charged with redistricting to consider whether the maps give sufficiently large racial and ethnic groups a fair shot at electing a proportionate number of members. Basically, this is done by drawing either “minority influence” districts (in which minorities are a large enough percentage of the voters that they can form a majority by aligning with like-minded non-minority voters) and “minority majority” districts. (in which the minority group is over 50% of the likely voters).
The current language in Section 2 was adopted in the early 1980s. The first major case applying Section 2 to redistricting devised a three-part test. First, the voters needed to show that minority voters are sufficiently concentrated that there is a reasonable map which would give them an additional minority influence or minority majority district. In equal protection cases, the Supreme Court has made clear that maps that grossly violate traditional considerations to force geographically dispersed minority enclaves into the same district are forbidden. Second, the voters must show that the minority group is politically cohesive. In other words, that a significant majority sees itself as one group and tend to support the same type of candidate. (For example, it might be harder to show that Asian voters are a group but easier to show that Vietnamese voters are a group.) Third, the voters must show that the majority group (almost always white voters) will oppose the candidate supported by the minority group. In other words, the last two parts require showing that racialized voting is still common in the jurisdiction.
Posted in Civil Rights, Elections, House of Representatives, Identity Politics, Judicial
Also tagged Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, redistricting, Supreme Court, Voting Rights Act
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Georgia Runoff
The last election of 2022 will conclude on Tuesday with the runoff election for U.S. Senator in Georgia. While there are still some races that will go to recounts, all of the statewide and congressional races seem to be outside the margin at which a recount could make a difference. (There are three races with margins between 500 and 600 votes — Arizona Attorney General, California Thirteenth District, and Colorado Third District. In the Minnestoa Senate recount in 2008, the net swing from the original results to the recount results was 450 votes with an additional 87 votes gained in the election contest. The closest of the three races going to recount is 511. While other recounts have resulted in bigger swings, they were in races with bigger margins and Minnesota remains the largest swing that changed the results of a race.
The significance of the Senate race is not quite as big as it was in 2021 due to the Republicans apparently taking the House (but the Republican’s inability to reach a consensus on the next Speaker will be the subject of a future post) and the fact that the Democrats already have 50 seats. But the result still matters for five key reasons.
First, the additional seat will alter the composition of committees. With a 50-50 Senate, the committees are evenly divided. While the rules currently allow a bill or nomination to proceed to the Senate floor on a tie vote, a 51-49 Senate would result in the Democrats having a majority on the committees.
Posted in Elections, General Election Forecast, Senate
Also tagged Georgia, Herschel Walker, Joe Manchin, Krysten Sinema, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Raphael Warnock, Texas, West Virginia
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The Midterms — Preview (Part 1)
We are into the home stretch of the campaign. This election comes down to those who want to protect women’s rights, LGBQT rights, our democracy, the middle class, and the safety of our streets on one side against those who want to undermine the concept of free and fair elections and impose an authoritarian theocracy on the other side. The midterm elections are more like parliamentary elections in other countries. There is no national race and winning is about the results of multiple state and local races.
As in 2020, there is expected to be a large number of votes by mail. Some states have changed their laws to allow counting of mail-in ballots to start earlier, but some still require the process of verifying and counting mail-in ballots to begin on election day. So there will be some states in which the Republican candidate will take an early lead based on the in-person votes, but the Democrat candidate will close that gap (and potentially take the lead) as the mail-in votes are counted. On the other hand, in states that announce mail-in and early voting results first, the opposite will occur.
These previews will go in the order of poll closing times. In states that are in two time zones, some states will release results as polls close. Others will hold off on releasing results until all polls close. If I know that a state holds off until all polls close, I will put the state in the time when the last polls close. Otherwise, I will put the state in when the majority of the polls close. I will list the time by Central Standard Time as that is my time zone. For ease of conversion, CST is UTC +8 (i.e. it is 8 p.m. UTC when it is noon CST), Atlantic ST +2 (2 p.m AtST for noon CST), Eastern ST +1 (1 p.m. EST for noon CST), Mountain ST -1 (MST 11:00 a.m. for noon CST), Pacific ST -2 (PST 10 a.m. for noon CST), Alaska ST -3 (9 a.m. AkSt for noon CST) and Hawaiian ST -4 (8:00 a.m. HST for noon CST).
Posted in Elections
Also tagged Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia
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The Fall Campaign
Traditionally, Labor Day Weekend was seen as the start of the Fall campaign (at least by the media). If that was ever true, it no longer is. With cable and websites like Facebook and Youtube, there are a lot of relatively inexpensive way to get advertisements out during July and August. If a campaign waits unti September to begin its ad campaign, the other side has already defined the race.
But, by this point in the cycle, we are down to the last handful of primaries, and the national committees and big PACS are already looking to decide where they are going to be spending the big bucks in late September and early October. (As the change in the mechanism for advertising has obliterated Labor Day as the start of the fall campaign, the change in voting habits (with a significant percentage casting early votes or mail-in ballots) has also altered when the big final push begins. While, in a close race, last minute news and ads can make a difference, it is just as important to get as many votes locked in as early as possible so that the last-minute spending can be focused on a tiny number of votes.
But that is the inside baseball stuff of campaigns. The purpose of this post is to set the stage for the next eight weeks. For the past two years, Democrats have had the frustration of a very narrow margin in the House of Representatives and a dead-even Senate. Because Nancy Pelosi may be one of the all-time great Speakers, Democrats have been mostly able to pass things in the House. The Senate, however, has been very, very difficult. The filibuster rules has limited the Democrats to passing anything significant via the reconciliation process. Even the reconciliation process requires keeping the entire Democratic caucus together which has proven difficult as a single member can insist on changes to any proposal. And the lack of a majority has also prevented any changes to the filibuster rule (again due to the ability a single Democrat to veto any proposed change).
Posted in Elections, General Election Forecast
Also tagged Arizona, Donald Trump, Georgia, Herschel Walker, House of Representatives, J.D. Vance, Kevin McCarthy, Lindsay Graham, Mitch McConnell, Nancy Pelosi, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Raphael Warnock, Ron DeSantis, Ron Jonhson, Senate, Wisconsin
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Redistricting — Florida
Florida is the last of the states with the happy task of creating a new congressional district. In states in which legislatures draft the new lines, one of the motivating factors in the new lines is legislators thinking about their future plans. If your state house or state senate district (in other words, your base) is the core of a congressional district, you have a decent shot of winning that district if you choose to run. And the best time to run is when the congressional seat is open. While the decision of the incumbent to retire (or run for higher office) is one way that the seat can become open, a new seat is automatically an open seat.
Of course, new/open is not the number of the district. It’s the geography of a district. If an incumbent is seeking another term, they are most likely to file in the district that has their old district as the core even if the district has a new number. (unlike Texas which has just tended to give the “new” districts the new number leading to numbers leapfrogging all over the map, Florida has tended to have the districts flow somewhat logically from the northwest to the southeast.) If you are a member with influence wanting to run for Congress, you want: 1) no incumbent members of Congress residing in your district (although it is possible to run for a district that you do not live in); 2) no incumbent member of Congress who represented the majority of the district; 3) to have the entirety of your current legislative district in the congressional district; and 4) to have the district favor your party as strongly as possible. In theory, under the Florida Constitution, the new lines are not supposed to be drawn to unfairly favor either party or to protect incumbents. And while courts can intervene if the legislature goes too far, the odds that any partisan legislature will strictly obey those constitutional provisions are slim approaching none.
These types of concerns influence redistricting in every state. Unfortunately, to address those personal concerns of those drawing the lines would require knowing the local politics of every state. Instead, these articles assume that the main concern is the battle between maximizing partisan advantage (in those states with legislatures in charge) versus trying to draw proportional and competitive lines (in those states with commissions in charge). With the current map (drawn after the courts struck down the previous map as too partisan), the state is actually roughly proportional. The Republicans have a 16-10 advantage (with one Democratic seat vacant), but the map is theoretically 14-13.
Posted in Elections, House of Representatives
Also tagged 2012 Republican National Convention, 2020 Census, redistricting
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Redistricting 2021 — The Numbers
On Monday, four days ahead of its latest target date and almost four months behind the statutory date, the Census Bureau released the national and state-level results from the Census including the apportionment numbers that determine how many representatives each get. As can be expected, there are multiple different tables summarizing the data in different ways for us number geeks.
The bottom line table shows the apportionment population (both those living in the state and those residing overseas — like military personnel — who call that state home), the number of representatives that each state is getting, and the change in representation. We will get back to the change in a minute, but the big level number is that the apportionment population is slightly over 331 million. As such, the average size (mean) of each congressional district is just under 761 thousand. Alaska, Vermont, and Wyoming have fewer people than the average congressional district. While the apportionment formula does not work for calculating the population needed for the first representative, even Wyoming has enough population to be entitled to three-quarters of a representative.
If, D.C. and Puerto Rico were states, Puerto Rico would be just ahead of Utah (which has four representatives) and just behind Connecticut (which has five representatives) and D.C. would be between Vermont and Alaska. Given that Puerto Rico is only slightly larger than Utah (which was not close to getting a fifth representative and far enough behind Connecticut, Puerto Rico would be due for four representatives. If both were states, the five states that would lose a representative would have been Oregon, Colorado, and Montana (all of which gained a seat), California (which lost a seat), and Minnesota (which barely avoided losing a seat). The chart of priority values that allows us to consider the impact of adding Puerto Rico and D.C. also shows that Minnesota barely held onto its last seat and New York barely lost its seat. Apparently, given the formula, Minnesota would have lost that seat if it had 24 fewer people, and New York would have kept its seat if it had 89 more people. (The disparity in numbers is caused by the fact that the two states have different number of seats.
Posted in House of Representatives
Also tagged 2020 Census, apportionment, California, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, redistricting, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia
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2022 Elections — A First Glance
The 2020 elections left both the House and the Senate closely divided. And two years is a long time in politics. But experience has taught politicians two, somewhat contradictory, things that will impact what can get done during the next two years.
The first, especially for the House of Representatives, is that the President’s party typically loses seats. But the reason for this normal rule is that a new President has typically helped members of his party to flip seats. As such, this might be less true for 2022 than in the past. In 2020, the Democrats only won three new seats, and two were the results of North Carolina having to fix its extreme gerrymander. And only a handful of Democratic incumbents won close races. And the rule is less consistent for the Senate, in large part because the Senators up for election are not the ones who ran with the President in the most recent election but the ones who ran with the prior president six years earlier. In other words, the President’s party tends to be more vulnerable in the Senate in the midterms of the second term than in the midterms of the first term. But the likelihood that the President’s party will lose seats is an incentive to do as much as possible during the first two years.
The second is that one cause of the swing may be overreach — that voters are trying to check a President who is going further than the voters actually wanted. This theory assumes that there are enough swing voters who really want centrist policies and that they switch sides frequently to keep either party from passing more “extreme” policies. Polls do not really support this theory and there is an argument that, at least part of the mid-term problem, could be the failure to follow through on all of the promises leading to less enthusiasm with the base. But this theory is a reason for taking things slowly and focusing on immediate necessities first and putting the “wish list” on hold until after the mid-terms.
Posted in Elections, House of Representatives, Senate
Also tagged Alaska, Arizona, Census, Georgia, House, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, redistricting, Senate, Vermont, Wisconsin
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