Tag Archives: Freedom Caucus

South Carolina Recap

By tmess2 | Published February 27, 2024

It’s hard interpreting the Republican results for president this year.  If Donald Trump were the incumbent, the numbers that he is getting would be the sign of substantial opposition within the party.  If this year were a truly open primary (i.e. he was not being treated as the “incumbent candidate” by Republicans), his results would be outstanding.

But the bigger story out of Saturday might be at the Congressional District level and is about the House of Representatives, not the presidency.  Nikki Haley only won one of the seven congressional districts — the First District.  Nancy Mace is the current, two-term, incumbent.  She was one of the “Freedom Caucus Eight” who voted to vacate the chair.  Kevin McCarthy is apparently planning on supporting a primary challenger to Representative Mace.  Does the fact that Nikki Haley got 53% of the vote show that a majority of the Republicans in the First District will support an establishment challenger to a Trumpist candidate.  If so, the Representative Mace’s time in Congress might be coming to a quick end.  Additionally, while the lines were a little different, the last time that the Republicans were this divided and supported the more extreme primary candidate, the Democrats managed to win this district (in 2018).  So, if the Democrats find a credible candidate for the general and Representative Mace wins the primary, perhaps enough real Republicans do not vote in the general or opt to vote for the Democrat to take this seat away from the Freedom Caucus.

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S-Day at the House

By tmess2 | Published December 31, 2022

The new Congress convenes on Tuesday.  After the new members are sworn in (including that con artist from Long Island), the first task of business of the House of Representatives is the election of the Speaker.  [CORRECTION:  Before new members are sworn in.]

Traditionally, the election of a speaker has been a formality.  The majority party votes for their chosen speaker, and the speaker is elected on the first ballot.  But, like a southern primary, the election of the speaker requires that a candidate get a majority of the votes (not counting those who vote present).  And representatives have become more willing to vote for a “third” candidate or vote present.  When a party has a working majority, a small segment of the party expressing disagreement over their party’s choice for speaker is simply a statement.  But when a party has a narrow majority, defectors can cause problems.

When the House convenes on Tuesday, the Republicans will have a 222-212 majority (due to the vacancy in Virginia which will not be filled until February).  There are a significant number of (anti-)Freedom Caucus members who think spineless Kevin McCarthy is not sufficiently wacko to be Speaker.  On Tuesday, we will find out if that number is fewer than five (in which case it does not matter) or more than ten (in which case McCarthy will not have a majority on the first ballot) and whether these members will vote for an alternative candidate (in which case five would block McCarthy) or abstain (in which case eleven would make Hakeem Jeffries the speaker). Continue Reading...

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