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Tag Archives: Georgia
Election Night Preview — Part Six (Post-Midnight Eastern)
Prior to Midnight, the polls will have closed in forty-eight states and the District of Columbia. All that is left to close are Hawaii and Alaska. Hawaii closes at midnight Eastern (7;00 p.m. local). Polls close at 8:00 p.m. local time in Alaska. For most of the state, that is midnight Eastern. But the Aleutian Islands are in a separate time zone and will close at 1:00 a.m. Eastern.
In Hawaii, the first big chunk of returns will be the early votes, but those are not reported until all polling places have actually closed. As such, it may be an hour or more before results are released. The release of results will be a little bit slower than Alaska.
The biggest race out of these two states is the congressional seat for Alaska, currently held by Democrat Mary Peltola. One factor that will delay a projection in this race is that Alaska uses ranked-choice voting. The Republicans in Alaska have pretty well demonstrated that they do not know how to run a race with ranked choice voting. Thus, rather than running two strong candidates and having the candidates encourage their supporters to rank the other candidate second, the Republicans have had their second candidate withdraw. Not having two candidates attacking Representative Peltola is a strategic mistake. But because the Republicans have cleared the field, it is unlikely that there will be many votes for the remaining candidates on the ballot. A good rule of thumb for ranked choice voting is that a candidate who finishes in second on first preferences is unlikely to have a net gain more than 1% for every 2% of the vote that went to the eliminated candidates. Representative Peltola received a majority of the vote in the primary, but that is now guarantee that she will get a majority of the first preference votes in the general election. It is entirely possible that we will not know the winner until after all counts are voted and preferences are applied, but the history of ranked choice voting in Australia is that, in most races, there is a clear winner with a sufficiently large margin in first preferences that the second-placed candidate can’t realistically catch-up.
Posted in Elections, General Election Forecast, House of Representatives, Senate
Also tagged Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Donald Trump, Ed Case, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Jill Tokuda, Kamala Harris, Mary Peltoal, Mazie Hirono, Michigan, Minimum wage, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Ranked Choice Voting, Texas, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin
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Election Night Preview — Part I — Pre-Prime Time
The U.S. is somewhat unique among major democracies in having national elections run by state governments (which in turn mostly delegate the actual running of the election to local governments). While Congress has set a uniform election day for federal offices (including the election of presidential electors) and most states have decided to hold state and county elections at the same time, each state gets to choose the time when polls close in that state. In other countries, there is either a uniform closing time (mostly in countries with a single time zone) or polls close at the same local time (creating a gradual move from east to west with additional polls closing every hour). The result in the U.S. is that rather than a stately progression, you have something of a zig zag.
But this zig zag process creates a rolling story for election night (and creates a way for us to break down what to look for on election night. In this (and following posts), I will designate poll closing times by local and Eastern Daylight times.
Putting to the side the territories, polls start to close at 6:00 p.m. Eastern (which is also 6:00 p.m. local time) in the parts of Kentucky and Indiana in the Eastern Time zone. These two states are deep red and very gerrymandered. In other words, there should be nothing to see in these two states. Indiana has an open Senate seat as the current Senator is running for governor and one of the Republican representatives is running for the Senate seat. But this state is not on any body’s list of states likely to flip even though the candidate the Republicans nominated for lieutenant governor is extremely controversial (which could make the race for Governor/Lieutenant Governor closer than it otherwise would be). And none of the House seats in the Eastern time zone are competitive with the closest race having a PVI of R +11. The only seat worth watching in Indiana’s first district which is mostly in the central time zone. That district is only D+3, but the Republican candidate is viewed as a long shot. The early votes are in the more Republican half of the district. So the first hour or so of return may make the race look close, but, by the end of the night, the Democrat should be up by 10% or more. In Kentucky, there are no Senate races or state races and the two closest races are +9 PVIs. In other words, if anything is happening with the House seats in either state or the statewide races in Indiana, that could be a sign that polls are very off. The most significant races in these two states are two ballot questions in Kentucky. One is a “throw red meat to the base” proposal to ban voting by non-citizens (which is already illegal). The other would allow public funding for private schools (which would include religious schools).
Posted in Elections, General Election Forecast
Also tagged Abigail Spanberger, Anna Luna, Bernie Moreno, Bernie Sanders, Dan Bishop, Donald Davis, Donald Trump, Emilia Sykes, Eugene Vindaman, Florida, Greg Landsman, Indiana, Jim Justice, Joe Manchin, Josh Stein, Kamala Harris, Kentucky, Marcy Katpur, Maria Salazar, marijuana, Matt Gaetz, Nancy Mace, North Carolina, Ohio, Phil Scott, Rebecca Baint, reproductive freedom, Rick Scott, Sherrod Brown, South Carolina, Tim Kaine, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia
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Late Spring Primaries — June 11 and June 18.
Yesterday marked the last presidential primary contests (in Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands). While some states have a unified primary (presidential and state/congressional), others do not. while a significant number of the spring state/congressional primaries are part of a unified primary, there are some states that have a separate spring state/congressional primary. Ten states are having state or congressional primaries over the next three weeks. After June 25, there will be a month-break with the rest of the primaries taking place in August and September. Additionally, there will be a special election in Ohio. A big theme of these primaries will be what happens to some Republican agents of chaos.
Starting with the elections on June 11, first up is Maine. Both congressional districts are currently held by Democrats. In both districts, there is a Republican primary. The first district leans Democratic and the second district leans Republican. Thus, it is not a surprise that there is a little more money in the Republican primary in the second district. Both of the Republican candidates in the second district are state representatives.
Unlike Maine, things are a little more chaotic in Nevada. The Republicans have ten candidates running for U.S. Senate for the right to challenge Jacky Rosen. The top two fundraiser on the Republican side are Sam Brown (the preferred candidate of the national party) and Jeff Gunter who has gotten significant support from the Freedom Caucus. Depending on which poll you trust, either Sam Brown has a comfortable lead or it is a dead heat. At the house level, all three of the Democratic seats are lean Democratic seats, and you have multiple candidates running for the Republican nomination in all three (three in the fourth district, six in the first district, and seven in the third district).
Posted in Elections, House of Representatives, Primary Elections
Also tagged Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Virginia
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2024 Primaries — Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, and Oregon (and California Special Election)
This week several states have primaries, but it is unlikely that many of them will be significant. In addition, we have the runoff in California for Kevin McCarthy’s old seat.
Starting with the special election in California. Under the top two system in California, the Republicans got both slots in the runoff. So when the results are finally certified in June, the Republicans will go back up to 218 seats. The only issue is which Republican gets the slot — McCarthy’s handpicked successor (Vince Fong) or County Sheriff Michael Boudreaux. This is likely to be a low turnout election which means that anything could happen. The same two candidates have made the general election in November which will have much higher turnout, but the winner on Tuesday will have a major advantage for the November election.
Georgia had to redraw districts to comply with the Voting Rights Act, but Republicans in the legislature solved that issue by simply redrawing the map so that the Democratic district was majority-minority and making the Republican district whiter (with the numbers flipped). Thus, the end result in Georgia is likely to be the same. For the most part, incumbents are likely to prevail, but some incumbents ended up with significantly altered districts. Additionally, the Third District is an open seat. Starting with the Third District, this rural district in western Georgia will almost certainly go Republican in November. There are five candidates running. The most likely outcome on Tuesday will be a runoff. The top three candidates in fundraising are Mike Crane, Michael Dugan, and Brian Jack, and it is likely that two of the three will make the runoff. The other race of interest is the Sixth District. This race is the one most likely impacted by the redrawing of the lines. Representative Lucy McBath currently represents the Seventh District. That district was chopped up to avoid the Democrats gaining a seat in redistricting, and Representative McBath is now running in the Sixth District. As best as I can tell, there is no overlap between the new Sixth and the old Seventh. While Representative McBath will be favored in this race, there is a chance of an upset. Unfortunately, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene did not draw any primary opponents and thus is likely to be back for another term.
Posted in Elections, House of Representatives, Primary Elections
Also tagged Brian Jack, California, Dana Edwards, Dean Phillips, Eduardo Morales, Hal Rogers, Idaho, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, Janelle Bynum, Kentucky, Kevin McCarthy, Kurt Schrader, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Lucy McBath, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Maxine Dexter, Michael Boudreaux, Michael Dugan, Mike Crane, Oregon, Susheela Jayapal, Vince Fong
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The Independent State Legislature Theory, Election Law, and the Trump Crimes
Recently, a federal grand jury in the District of Columbia returned an indictment charging the Orange Menance with crimes related to his attempted coup after the 2020 election. It is expected that within a week or two a state grand jury in Fulton County, Georgia will add state charges related to the efforts of dictator-wannabe Donald Trump to convince Georgia election authorities to alter the results of the election in that state.
Much of the crimes committed by Donald Trump and his band of incompetent coconspirators were based on a flawed version of the independent state legislature theory and a misunderstanding of election mechanics.
First, the independent state legislature theory. The independent state legislature theory is based on two clauses in the U.S. Constitution. One of the clauses is found in Article I and applies to the election of members of Congress. The other clauses is found in Article II and deals with the selection of presidential electors.
Posted in 2020 General Election, Donald Trump, Elections, Electoral College
Also tagged Criminal Charges, Donald Trump, Independent State Legislature
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Voting Rights Act — A Glimmer of Hope
On Thursday, the United Supreme Court issued its opinion in Allen v. Milligan, a case in which Alabama voters challenged the state’s new congressional district lines under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. As people may remember, due to COVID and the resulting delay in the 2020 census, Alabama completed its redistricting process shortly before filing began. Although the voters quickly filed their case, and the three-judge panel quickly heard the challenge and issued its decision, a 5-4 majority decided that any change caused by any new lines issued by the judges would be too close to the start of the election process (but that the legislation changing the lines was not) for the judge-drawn lines to be used in the 2022 election. So the 2022 election was held under the new lines drawn by the legislature while the U.S. Supreme Court decided whether those lines were valid. In its ruling this week, five justices (with Justice Kavanaugh switching sides and Justice Jackson replacing Justice Breyer) upheld the trial court ruling.
To start with the legal considerations, Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act bars any voting practice or procedure that causes a protected group to “have less opportunity than other” groups “to elect representatives of their choice.” While Section 2 also contains language disavowing an express requirement of proportionality, previous cases have found that Section 2 applies to redistricting and that it requires those bodies charged with redistricting to consider whether the maps give sufficiently large racial and ethnic groups a fair shot at electing a proportionate number of members. Basically, this is done by drawing either “minority influence” districts (in which minorities are a large enough percentage of the voters that they can form a majority by aligning with like-minded non-minority voters) and “minority majority” districts. (in which the minority group is over 50% of the likely voters).
The current language in Section 2 was adopted in the early 1980s. The first major case applying Section 2 to redistricting devised a three-part test. First, the voters needed to show that minority voters are sufficiently concentrated that there is a reasonable map which would give them an additional minority influence or minority majority district. In equal protection cases, the Supreme Court has made clear that maps that grossly violate traditional considerations to force geographically dispersed minority enclaves into the same district are forbidden. Second, the voters must show that the minority group is politically cohesive. In other words, that a significant majority sees itself as one group and tend to support the same type of candidate. (For example, it might be harder to show that Asian voters are a group but easier to show that Vietnamese voters are a group.) Third, the voters must show that the majority group (almost always white voters) will oppose the candidate supported by the minority group. In other words, the last two parts require showing that racialized voting is still common in the jurisdiction.
Posted in Civil Rights, Elections, House of Representatives, Identity Politics, Judicial
Also tagged Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, redistricting, Supreme Court, Voting Rights Act
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The 2024 Primary Process
The advantage of being the party in power is that you can make changes to your rules about your presidential nomination process without worrying about which potential candidate will benefit. Barring the unlikely event that President Biden does not seek the nomination, he will be the Democratic nominee regardless of the rules. So these changes will not impact who will win the nomination in 2024, and 2028 is way too far away for anybody to guess who will be running in 2028 much less who benefits from the changes.
First, as always, the nomination process is a battle between state laws and national rules. And, under the First Amendment, as interpreted by the U.S. Supreme Court, the national party rules for choosing the national presidential candidate prevails over state law. Of course, while the states are unable to bind the national party, the states do set the rules for who appears on their general election ballots. As of now, no state laws designate anybody other than the national nominees as the presidential candidate of that party (and no state party has refused to certify their national candidate).
Second, the two parties have different rules. Both sets of rules involve potential penalties for states that violate the rules. In the past, the two parties had similar rules on timing of primaries. But this time, thanks to the Democrat’s changes to the list of states that can go before the first Tuesday in March, the list of potential February contests is not the same for the two parties. And each party has potential penalties for states that violate their rules.
Posted in 2024 Convention, Delegates
Also tagged 2024 Primary Calendar, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Carolina
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Georgia Runoff
The last election of 2022 will conclude on Tuesday with the runoff election for U.S. Senator in Georgia. While there are still some races that will go to recounts, all of the statewide and congressional races seem to be outside the margin at which a recount could make a difference. (There are three races with margins between 500 and 600 votes — Arizona Attorney General, California Thirteenth District, and Colorado Third District. In the Minnestoa Senate recount in 2008, the net swing from the original results to the recount results was 450 votes with an additional 87 votes gained in the election contest. The closest of the three races going to recount is 511. While other recounts have resulted in bigger swings, they were in races with bigger margins and Minnesota remains the largest swing that changed the results of a race.
The significance of the Senate race is not quite as big as it was in 2021 due to the Republicans apparently taking the House (but the Republican’s inability to reach a consensus on the next Speaker will be the subject of a future post) and the fact that the Democrats already have 50 seats. But the result still matters for five key reasons.
First, the additional seat will alter the composition of committees. With a 50-50 Senate, the committees are evenly divided. While the rules currently allow a bill or nomination to proceed to the Senate floor on a tie vote, a 51-49 Senate would result in the Democrats having a majority on the committees.
Posted in Elections, General Election Forecast, Senate
Also tagged Florida, Herschel Walker, Joe Manchin, Krysten Sinema, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Raphael Warnock, Texas, West Virginia
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The Midterms — Preview (Part 1)
We are into the home stretch of the campaign. This election comes down to those who want to protect women’s rights, LGBQT rights, our democracy, the middle class, and the safety of our streets on one side against those who want to undermine the concept of free and fair elections and impose an authoritarian theocracy on the other side. The midterm elections are more like parliamentary elections in other countries. There is no national race and winning is about the results of multiple state and local races.
As in 2020, there is expected to be a large number of votes by mail. Some states have changed their laws to allow counting of mail-in ballots to start earlier, but some still require the process of verifying and counting mail-in ballots to begin on election day. So there will be some states in which the Republican candidate will take an early lead based on the in-person votes, but the Democrat candidate will close that gap (and potentially take the lead) as the mail-in votes are counted. On the other hand, in states that announce mail-in and early voting results first, the opposite will occur.
These previews will go in the order of poll closing times. In states that are in two time zones, some states will release results as polls close. Others will hold off on releasing results until all polls close. If I know that a state holds off until all polls close, I will put the state in the time when the last polls close. Otherwise, I will put the state in when the majority of the polls close. I will list the time by Central Standard Time as that is my time zone. For ease of conversion, CST is UTC +8 (i.e. it is 8 p.m. UTC when it is noon CST), Atlantic ST +2 (2 p.m AtST for noon CST), Eastern ST +1 (1 p.m. EST for noon CST), Mountain ST -1 (MST 11:00 a.m. for noon CST), Pacific ST -2 (PST 10 a.m. for noon CST), Alaska ST -3 (9 a.m. AkSt for noon CST) and Hawaiian ST -4 (8:00 a.m. HST for noon CST).
Posted in Elections
Also tagged Florida, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia
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The Fall Campaign
Traditionally, Labor Day Weekend was seen as the start of the Fall campaign (at least by the media). If that was ever true, it no longer is. With cable and websites like Facebook and Youtube, there are a lot of relatively inexpensive way to get advertisements out during July and August. If a campaign waits unti September to begin its ad campaign, the other side has already defined the race.
But, by this point in the cycle, we are down to the last handful of primaries, and the national committees and big PACS are already looking to decide where they are going to be spending the big bucks in late September and early October. (As the change in the mechanism for advertising has obliterated Labor Day as the start of the fall campaign, the change in voting habits (with a significant percentage casting early votes or mail-in ballots) has also altered when the big final push begins. While, in a close race, last minute news and ads can make a difference, it is just as important to get as many votes locked in as early as possible so that the last-minute spending can be focused on a tiny number of votes.
But that is the inside baseball stuff of campaigns. The purpose of this post is to set the stage for the next eight weeks. For the past two years, Democrats have had the frustration of a very narrow margin in the House of Representatives and a dead-even Senate. Because Nancy Pelosi may be one of the all-time great Speakers, Democrats have been mostly able to pass things in the House. The Senate, however, has been very, very difficult. The filibuster rules has limited the Democrats to passing anything significant via the reconciliation process. Even the reconciliation process requires keeping the entire Democratic caucus together which has proven difficult as a single member can insist on changes to any proposal. And the lack of a majority has also prevented any changes to the filibuster rule (again due to the ability a single Democrat to veto any proposed change).
Posted in Elections, General Election Forecast
Also tagged Arizona, Donald Trump, Florida, Herschel Walker, House of Representatives, J.D. Vance, Kevin McCarthy, Lindsay Graham, Mitch McConnell, Nancy Pelosi, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Raphael Warnock, Ron DeSantis, Ron Jonhson, Senate, Wisconsin
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