Tag Archives: Georgia

Redistricting 2022

By tmess2 | Published January 29, 2022

The legislative part of redistricting is almost complete.  Only nine states are still in the process of drafting the “first” set of maps.  (Tw of those nine states are my home state of Missouri and the neighboring state of Kansas.  In both states, the maps are through one house of the legislature and are under consideration in the second house.)  In three states (Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), the first set of maps defaulted to the courts when the legislatures and the governors were unable to agree on the new maps.

But in the remaining states, the maps have been adopted.  And that means that the battle over the maps has moved to the courts.  At this point, I am aware of three states in which we have rulings about the new maps.  Two of them are no surprise, or, at least, not much of a surprise.  In Ohio, the Ohio Supreme Court found that the map passed by the Ohio legislature violated the Ohio Constitutions rules on redistricting which bars drawing a map which unduly favors one political party or unduly splits political subdivisions.  In North Carolina, the North Carolina Supreme Court has under review an initial decision upholding the maps drawn by the North Carolina legislature.  The North Carolina Supreme Court will hear arguments on February 2.  Right now, it looks more likely than not that the North Carolina Supreme Court will strike down the map in that state.

The surprise on the list might be Alabama.  Alabama was not on the list of states that we looked at last year.  The failure to do so caused us to miss a change in demography within the state.  For the last several cycles, there has been one minority-majority district in western Alabama (the Seventh District).  In previous decades, the consensus was that — even though approximately one-quarter of the state is African-American — the minority population was too dispersed to creeate a second district that would either be a minority-majority district or close enough to qualify as an influence district.   (Part of the theory of the case is that the new districts dilute the influence of African-Americans in violation of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act or is a racial gerrymander in violation of the Equal Protection Clasue.)  After the last census, however, it appears that by placing Birmingham in one district (the Seventh District) and Montgomery in a separate district in the southern part of the state, you could get two minority-majority districts (or at least two districts that would qualify as influence districts).  For now, the panel of judges hearing the Voting Rights Act case has ordered that Alabama will not be allowed to use the new maps pending a final decision (and has given Alabama thirty days to submit replacement maps or the court will draw maps for this election cycle).  Alabama has asked the Supreme Court to put this ruling on hold, and the Supreme Court has asked the plaintiffs for a response by February 2. Continue Reading...

Posted in Elections, House of Representatives | Also tagged , , , , , , Comments Off on Redistricting 2022

Redistricting — Georgia

By tmess2 | Published June 19, 2021

The Republicans control redistricting in Georgia, but the current map gives them several challenges.  Several suburban districts that leaned Republican in 2011 are now swing districts held by Democrats.  Additionally, the Republican have to be careful to avoid violating the Voting Rights Act.  And, as in other states, there has been a population shift from the rural areas of the state to the metropolitan part of the state, specifically Atlanta and its suburbs.  Based on the 2019 Census estimates, the First District (southeastern Georgia) is around 5,000 people short; the Second District (southwest Georgia) is over 70,000 people short; the Third District (western Georgia) is around 9,000 people short; the Eighth District (southern Georgia) is over 35,000 people short; the Twelfth District (eastern-southeastern Georgia) is around 20,000 people short; and the Fourteenth District (northwestern Georgia) is around 25,000 people short.  Of these districts, one (Second) is safe Democrat and the others are safe to solid Republican.  Having said that, the biggest overages are the Seventh District (northeastern Atlanta suburbs), the Fifth District (Atlanta), and the Eleventh District (northwestern suburbs) — one toss-up district (Seventh), one solid Democratic district (Fifth), and one solid Republican District (Eleventh).

Given that the safest Republican precincts are in districts that are short residents, and the most Democratic precincts are in the overpopulated parts of the other districts, Republicans are going to have to look carefully at how they move the lines.  It is possible, however, to accomplish their main goals which are to regain the Sixth District (currently D+1) and the Seventh District (currently R+2).  On paper this goal can be achieved.  To accomplish this goal, Republicans will have to have adjoining districts trade precincts.  A good example is Gwinnett County where you could some Democratic precincts move to the Tenth District and some Republican precincts move to the Seventh.  For the Sixth District, the changes are much more blunt with the Eleventh District moving into Marietta in Cobb County to make up for the precincts that it will need to shed to the Thirteenth District (to allow the Thirteenth to shed precincts to the Third District).  The real problem, for the Republicans are how much they can trust the numbers.  Atlanta is a prime example of the suburbs changing quickly.  And using anything other than the 2020 results may make these districts look redder than they actually are.  Minimalist changes — combined with the current attempts at voter suppression in Georgia — may allow the Republicans to temporarily win back the Sixth District and the Seventh District, but the current trends will make it hard for the Republicans to keep them.

There are certainly some changes to my first round of maps that the Republicans could make which would involve adding precincts to districts that are already over in population and taking precincts from districts that are under in population (with other precincts moved around to compensate).  The most likely option for this would be for the Ninth District to give up precincts in northern Forsyth County to the Sixth District and the Seventh District.  The Ninth District would then get some additional precincts from the Tenth which would get precincts from the Fourth District and Seventh District in Gwinnett County (the Seventh would get some precincts from the Tenth in Gwinnett County).  Finally, the Fourth District would get precincts from the Sixth District in DeKalb County.  With some aggressive precinct selection, my final maps showed the Sixth and Seventh Districts as approximately R+7. Continue Reading...

Posted in Elections, House of Representatives, Uncategorized | Also tagged , Comments Off on Redistricting — Georgia

Redistricting 2021 — The Numbers

By tmess2 | Published May 1, 2021

On Monday, four days ahead of its latest target date and almost four months behind the statutory date, the Census Bureau released the national and state-level results from the Census including the apportionment numbers that determine how many representatives each get.  As can be expected, there are multiple different tables summarizing the data in different ways for us number geeks.

The bottom line table shows the apportionment population (both those living in the state and those residing overseas — like military personnel — who call that state home), the number of representatives that each state is getting, and the change in representation.   We will get back to the change in a minute, but the big level number is that the apportionment population is slightly over 331 million.  As such, the average size (mean) of each congressional district is just under 761 thousand.  Alaska, Vermont, and Wyoming have fewer people than the average congressional district.  While the apportionment formula does not work for calculating the population needed for the first representative, even Wyoming has enough population to be entitled to three-quarters of a representative.

If, D.C. and Puerto Rico were states, Puerto Rico would be just ahead of Utah (which has four representatives) and just behind Connecticut (which has five representatives) and D.C. would be between Vermont and Alaska.  Given that Puerto Rico is only slightly larger than Utah (which was not close to getting a fifth representative and far enough behind Connecticut, Puerto Rico would be due for four representatives.  If  both were states, the five states that would lose a representative would have been Oregon, Colorado, and Montana (all of which gained a seat), California (which lost a seat), and Minnesota (which barely avoided losing a seat).  The chart of priority values that allows us to consider the impact of adding Puerto Rico and D.C. also shows that Minnesota barely held onto its last seat and New York barely lost its seat.  Apparently, given the formula, Minnesota would have lost that seat if it had 24 fewer people, and New York would have kept its seat if it had 89 more people.  (The disparity in numbers is caused by the fact that the two states have different number of seats. Continue Reading...

Posted in House of Representatives | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Comments Off on Redistricting 2021 — The Numbers

2022 Elections — A First Glance

By tmess2 | Published January 30, 2021

The 2020 elections left both the House and the Senate closely divided.  And two years is a long time in politics.  But experience has taught politicians two, somewhat contradictory, things that will impact what can get done during the next two years.

The first, especially for the House of Representatives, is that the President’s party typically loses seats.  But the reason for this normal rule is that a new President has typically helped members of his party to flip seats.  As such, this might be less true for 2022 than in the past.  In 2020, the Democrats only won three new seats, and two were the results of North Carolina having to fix its extreme gerrymander.  And only a handful of Democratic incumbents won close races.  And the rule is less consistent for the Senate, in large part because the Senators up for election are not the ones who ran with the President in the most recent election but the ones who ran with the prior president six years earlier.  In other words, the President’s party tends to be more vulnerable in the Senate in the midterms of the second term than in the midterms of the first term.  But the likelihood that the President’s party will lose seats is an incentive to do as much as possible during the first two years.

The second is that one cause of the swing may be overreach — that voters are trying to check a President who is going further than the voters actually wanted.  This theory assumes that there are enough swing voters who really want centrist policies and that they switch sides frequently to keep either party from passing more “extreme” policies.  Polls do not really support this theory and there is an argument that, at least part of the mid-term problem, could be the failure to follow through on all of the promises leading to less enthusiasm with the base.  But this theory is a reason for taking things slowly and focusing on immediate necessities first and putting the “wish list” on hold until after the mid-terms. Continue Reading...

Posted in Elections, House of Representatives, Senate | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Comments Off on 2022 Elections — A First Glance

Georgia, Recall Elections, Impeachment, and Removal — a Legal Primer

By tmess2 | Published January 8, 2021

In the aftermath of a weak of sedition and riots, I am seeing a lot of questions about issues related to the seating (or exclusion) of Senators and Representatives.  I am also seeing questions about what can be done to bring a quicker end to the mistake that was the Trump presidency.

Let’s start with the Georgia elections.  As we learned in November, it takes time to finalize the election results.  In Georgia, there are three key deadlines.  The first is the deadline for receipt of overseas ballots and for the curing of “rejected” absentee ballots and for determining the validity of provisional ballots.  That deadline was the close of business today.     So, at the present time, all  of the counties should know if they have any votes left to count.

The second deadline is next Friday — January 15.  By that date, all of the approximately 160 counties are supposed to have completed their county canvass and certified all votes to the Secretary of State.  This deadline can be extended if the Secretary of State orders a pre-certification audit (as happened in the presidential race).  (It is unclear how the audit will apply to the Senate races.  The state law required one for the November election but is ambiguous as to the run-off election.  The Secretary of State also opted for a complete hand recount of all votes in the presidential race — which technically is not an audit — but the statute only requires an audit of random counties and precincts.  If a proper – in other words,  limited — audit is conducted, the counties that have to do the audit may not need an extension.) Continue Reading...

Posted in 2020 General Election, Donald Trump, Elections, Joe Biden, Senate | Also tagged , , , , , , , Comments Off on Georgia, Recall Elections, Impeachment, and Removal — a Legal Primer

Georgia on My Mind

By tmess2 | Published December 29, 2020

A week from today, there will be two runoff elections in Georgia for its two Senate seats.  One, the race between Senator David Perdue and Jon Ossoff will be for a full six-year term.  The other, the race between Senator Kelly Loeffler and Reverend Raphael Warnock is for the last two years of former Senator John Isakson’s term.

Georgia, like many southern states, requires a primary run-off if no candidate wins a majority in the primary.  However, Georgia is part of a very small set of states that requires a run-off if no candidate wins a majority in the general election (except for the selection of presidential electors).  It also, like some other states (again mostly in the south), uses a so-called jungle primary for special elections in which all candidates from all parties run on the same ballot in the general election rather than having party primaries to pick candidates for the special election.  Back in November, the Libertarian candidate did just well enough in the Perdue-Ossoff race to prevent anybody from getting a majority, and there were enough candidates running in both parties that nobody got over 35% of the vote with Warnock and Loeffler advancing to the runoff.

As the fact that it is primarily found in the South should indicate, runoff elections have a somewhat racist history in the U.S.  While not the only reason for wanting a runoff, keeping power for the white political and economic establishment against reformers who might support an increased role for minorities (among other things) was a motivating factor. Continue Reading...

Posted in 2020 General Election, Senate | Also tagged , , , Comments Off on Georgia on My Mind

Electoral College

By tmess2 | Published December 13, 2020

One of the often misunderstood aspects of U.S. elections is how the popular vote relates to the election of the President.  While, in the majority of the states, the ballot simply lists the candidates for President (along with the Vice-Presidential running mate), voters are effectively voting for a slate of electors.  The winning slate in each state then assembles on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December at the location and time designated by that state.  After assembling, the electors for the state cast a vote for President and a vote for Vice-President.  The votes are then counted, and the electors complete six certificates of vote recording the votes of the electors for that state.  Each certificate of vote is paired with one of the previously completed certificates of ascertainment.  Federal law then directs what happens with the six certificates of vote with one going to the President of the Senate (in practice, the clerk of the Senate), two to the national archives, two to the secretary of state of the individual state, and one to the federal district court for that state.

Normally, the meeting of the electoral college is a big ceremonial event.  With Covid-19 and the potential for protests to get out of control, it appears that most of the states are planning on holding scaled-down events.

The fringe element of Trump supporters (and President Putin) are hoping for some last minute drama for Monday, but that is practically impossible for several reasons.  First, earlier this year, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld state laws requiring electors to vote for the presidential candidate to whom they are pledged.  While states have different laws on so-called faithless electors,  the net effect of those laws is that sixty-nine Biden electors are from states that replace an elector and cancel the electors vote if the elector fails to follow through on their pledge, sixty are from states that fine the elector, seventy-one are from states with pledges but no enforcement provision, and one hundred six are from states with no law on this issue.  That means that, at most, there are 237 Biden electors who could defect. Continue Reading...

Posted in 2020 General Election, Electoral College | Also tagged , , , , , , , , Comments Off on Electoral College

Where Things Stand

By tmess2 | Published November 15, 2020

In part because of one sore loser, this year’s election seems to be the one that will not end.  And that means that almost any post based on current information is no longer accurate several days later.  As noted in previous posts, there are three big questions:  1) when are absentee ballots due; 2) when will the vote be certified; and 3) what states might be subject to recounts.  There is also the never-ending litigation being filed by the Trump campaign.

At the present time, California is probably the biggest state in which we are still waiting for late absentee ballots with a deadline of Friday.  At the time that I am writing this post, the margin in the Twenty-Fifth District is less than 100 votes; so late arriving ballots could be a key.  In addition, a recount is a real possibility.

The other big state in which there remains a significant number of ballots to be counted is New York.  At the present time, Democrats have apparently lost the Eleventh District (Staten Island).  There are three Democratic districts that have not been called, but Democrats now lead in two of the three.  There are also two Republican districts that have not been called, but the Republicans have significant leads in both.  Whether the remaining votes will actually swing the districts is unclear. Continue Reading...

Posted in 2020 General Election, Donald Trump | Also tagged , , , , , , , , Comments Off on Where Things Stand

A recount primer

By tmess2 | Published November 6, 2020

We are now moving into the universe where aside from spinning fictional conspiracy theory, Donald Trump is, for all practical purposes, down to recounts to keep his slim hopes of avoiding an orange jump suit alive.

As with everything else about this election that we have talked about over the past three weeks, the basic rules for recounts are set by state law.  So looking at the states in which Trump is most likely to ask for a recount, here are the rules.

Arizona — In Arizona, the margin must be less than 0.1%.   Any such recount is automatic, and a candidate is not able to request a recount.  Assuming a final vote total of slightly under 4 million votes, the margin would have to slip under 4,000 to have a recount.  Apparently, in Arizona, the recount is done by rerunning the ballots through counting machines. Continue Reading...

Posted in 2020 General Election | Also tagged , , , , , Comments Off on A recount primer

Election Night Preview — Part 1 (6 PM to 8 PM EST)

By tmess2 | Published October 27, 2020

Election Night in the U.S. is always different from how things play out in most other countries.  The U.S. is one of a handful of countries that have more than two time zones.  And, in most of those other countries, all areas within the same time zone close at the same time.  Voting hours in these countries are set by federal law.  In the U.S., however, voting hours are set by state law.   And that creates a weird sequence of poll closing times.

In addition, poll closing times are, in some sense, tentative.  While you need to be in line to vote by the time that polls close, anybody in line to vote gets to vote.  For states that close in the early evening, long lines at closing time are nor unusual as there is not much of a window to vote after getting home from work resulting in many people attempting to vote after work still being in line when the polls cloase.  And there is always the possibility of an emergency order permitting certain precincts to stay open late to compensate for problems earlier in the day.  Even after polls close, many jurisdictions use a centralized counting location.   That means that there is a lag time between the polls closing and the ballots getting to the counting location.  In my county, the closest precincts are still only getting to the county seat about thirty minutes after polls close and the far edges of the county are getting there around an hour after the polls close.  As a result, it typically takes ninety minutes for my small (eighteen precinct) county to report all of the results.  Large urban counties can take three to four hours to report all of their election night results.  This delay in reporting (which is pretty much the same in most states) is one thing that traditionally makes it difficult to project result.  If the three largest counties in a state have only reported 10% of the vote while the rest of the state is 80% in, there is still a large number of votes that can change who wins a close race.

The other issue that will impact this election is the number of mail-in votes.  As we have previously discussed, every state has different rules for counting mail-in votes.  In most states, early in-person votes will be released around the same time (if not before) the election day votes, but mail-in votes will be reportedly differently in different states.  As such, with each state, the big questions will be:  1) is the reported vote just the early vote or also the election day vote; 2) if we have full early vote and partial election day vote, how much does the election day vote differ from the early vote; and 3) how much of the mail-in vote has been counted and how much may remain to be counted or still be “in the mail”?  The early count from a state may appear to be lopsided, but — without knowing the answers to these questions — it will be more difficult to determine if we have enough of the vote counted to know who is going to win.  In states that are used to large mail-in vote totals, it is not unusual to not know the winner of the closest race for a day or two after the election as we finally get enough mail-in votes counted. Continue Reading...

Posted in Elections, General Election Forecast | Also tagged , , , , , , , , Comments Off on Election Night Preview — Part 1 (6 PM to 8 PM EST)