Last Sunday, Germany held elections for the lower house of its parliament.  Given the mixed-member system that Germany uses, German elections are not immediately conclusive.  The results merely set the terms for the negotiations that will follow over the shape of the government.  But the election results do reflect the changes in Europe over the last 50 years.

The short version of the results is that the Social Democratic Party (the junior partner in the current government) made significant gains at the expense of the Christian Democratic/Social Union (the senior partner in the current government) and is now the largest party in parliament (206 seats vs. 196 seats).  The Green Party made significant gains to move from sixth place to third place (now at 118 seats).  The Free Democrats gained some seats but due to the big gains by the Greens stayed in fourth place (now at 92 seats).  The Alternative for Germany fell from third place to fifth place dropping eleven seats (now at 83 seats).  Finally, the Left lost about half of its seats to drop from fifth place to sixth place (now at 39 seats).  While the numbers have shifted, the essential facts of political life remain the same.  The only potential two-party majority is a grand union between the “Union” and the Social Democrats and a three-party coalition that features only one of the two largest party would require both the Greens and the Free Democrats (as the Left and the Alternative for the reasons noted below are not preferred options).

Hopping into the wayback machine, however, todays results would be unrecognizable to the German voter who voted in the 1980 election.  Back in 1980, West Germany was primarily three parties — the Union, the Social Democrats, and the Free Democrats.  At that time, the Free Democrats were essentially the balance in the center between the Union and the Social Democrats.  The Free Democrats had the power to decide who would form the government and used that power to keep either of the other two parties from shifting to far from center.  Over the 1980s, prior to unification, the Green Party formed and rivaled the Free Democrats for third party status. Continue Reading...