Tag Archives: Joe Biden

Delegate Math 2020 — Alaska (Updated)

By tmess2 | Published April 4, 2020

With things somewhat up in the air about Wisconsin, Alaska is the next state to complete its voting.  Alaska is one of the states that moved from a caucus to a party-run primary since the last cycle.  In response to Covid-19, the Alaska Democratic Party has moved to a vote-by-mail election.  Ballots are supposed to be received by April 10, and the state party will release the results on April 11.

Alaska is using a ranked-choice ballot with candidates being eliminated (starting with the candidate with the least votes) until all of the remaining candidates are viable.  With only two candidates still running, even if some small segment of voters who voted early have another candidate as their first choice, the final count after preferences are distributed should leave only Senator Sanders and Vice-President Biden with votes on the final count.  Under the rules for the primary, because only viable candidates will be left in the final count, there is no difference between the final total votes and qualified votes.

What makes delegate math unusual in Alaska is the fact that it is a single-district state.  Under the rules, the allocation of delegates is calculated separately for each of the three pools, but the state-wide results are used to allocate all three pools.  The fact that the pools are calculated separately gives a different result than if all the delegates were allocated as one pool. Continue Reading...

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Delegate Math 2020 — The COVID 19 Break

By tmess2 | Published March 22, 2020

Barring a statutory change at the federal level, federal law requires that states choose electors for President on the First Tuesday after the First Monday in November.  While there are other provisions governing the possibility that states are unable to choose electors on that day and the states are free to change the way that they select the electors, it is unlikely that those laws will change — either at the state or federal level.  Likewise, federal law requires that elections for the House and Senate will take place on the First Tuesday after the First Monday in November.    And the Constitution and federal law makes clear when the existing terms of office expire.

There are a lot of questions about what would happen if for some reason elections are postponed in some states.  Do the governors get to appoint temporary Senators in the states for which the term has expired until the elections can be held?  Are the elections merely postponed or must the governor’s call for special elections?  However, for President, what happens is governed by the Presidential Successor Act until somebody is chosen to fill the remainder of the term.  Of course as the Presidential Successor Act would put the Speaker of the House and the President Pro Tempore of the Senate into the White House, the question is whether the House and Senate will be able to convene as normal in early January to choose the people who will be in those positions if such a vacancy occurs.  If they can’t, do the old officers continue over until the House and Senate can convene (allowing one of them to become President)?

In short, while things still need to be worked out, it is more likely than not that some way will be found to hold elections this fall.  In the states that currently rely heavily on voting-by-mail, it is almost certain that the elections will proceed as planned.  And some of the remaining states may try to transition to a vote-by-mail system.  And if there is going to be an election for President, both parties need to continue with the process for choosing a nominee.  As others have noted for this site, there are questions about how the national convention will be restructured to deal with the current crisis and how the states will alter the delegate selection process in light of the current goal to minimize person-to-person crisis.  (I know that, in my state, the delegate selection process has been postponed by almost eight weeks.) Continue Reading...

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Delegate Math 2020 — March 17

By tmess2 | Published March 15, 2020

After the sprint of twenty-four contests in fifteen days, this week’s four primaries represents a slowing of the pace.  After the March 17 contests, there will be only seven contests over the next three weeks concluding with the Wisconsin primary before there is a three-week break between Wisconsin and the Mid-Atlantic primary on April 28.  (EDIT:  Now six contests, with Georgia’s primary being postponed until May.)

In the last two weeks, in the states that vote by mail, we have seen the early results showing significant number of votes for candidates that are no longer in the race.  As counting has continued, however, the later arriving ballots have swung away from the candidates who have suspended their campaigns and toward Senator Sanders and Vice-President Biden.  There will have been some early voting in the states that are voting on March 17.  As such, the initial release of numbers will probably include some votes for these candidates, but that number should decline over the evening as election day returns are added in.

With the narrowing of the field, delegate math is now a state-by-state struggle.  And this state-by-state battle is different for the Democratic primaries than it is on the Republican side.  The media likes to focus on who wins a state.  And, in the general election (and in many states on the Republican side), the winner-take-all rule makes winning a state very important.  On the Democratic side, the proportional allocation of delegates means that it matters more whether somebody wins a state by a large margin than who wins the state.  As we have seen over the past seven days, a narrow in by Vice-President Biden is currently netting him around seven delegates in a large state, but his big win in Mississippi (less than half the size of Washington) is netting him over thirty delegates. Continue Reading...

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Winnowing Out???

By tmess2 | Published February 12, 2020

Historically, the main role played by the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary is to narrow the field.  While, for different reasons, they are not necessarily representative of what it takes to win the nomination or the general election, they are both small enough that even candidates not well-known to the general public have a chance to make their case to the voters.  (Of course, for all of its flaws, the party-sponsored debates are eliminating some of that aspect of Iowa and New Hampshire.)  And candidates who fail to show any signs of life in these two states tend to lose their supporters (both financially and vote-wise) who begin to look for somebody who has a chance at making it to the convention.

This year seems like it might be a bit different than in the past.  In part due to the chaos that was Iowa, nobody dropped out after Iowa.  Last night, when it was clear that the results were not going to be there for them, Senator Michael Bennet and Andrew Yang announced that they had reached the end of the road.  And Governor Deval Patrick is apparently taking time to consider if he still has a path forward.  Bu that seems to be the extent of the winnowing that we will see for now.

With the possible exception of Representative Tulsi Gabbard, the remaining candidates each seem to think that they have a path forward that, at least, justifies staying in the race a little bit longer.  Both Vice-President Joe Biden and Tom Steyer have invested heavily in South Carolina.  Biden still leads the polls in South Carolina and Steyer is either second or third depending upon which poll you credit.  If they can hold onto that support, South Carolina would breathe new life into their campaign.  As the last remaining person of color in the race, Governor Deval Patrick apparently hopes that he can become the second choice of South Carolina voters in Biden’s support collapses. Continue Reading...

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When is Late too Late?

By tmess2 | Published November 11, 2019

Over this past week, former Democrat-turned Republican-turned Independent-turned Democrat New York City Mayor, Media Mogul, and actual Multi-Billionaire Michael Bloomberg filed paperwork to run in the Alabama Democratic Presidential Primary.

At this point, Mayor Bloomberg has not officially announced that he is running for President.  It was just necessary to file to be on the Alabama ballot to keep his options open.  With a deadline of Friday, Mayor Bloomberg has not yet filed for the New Hampshire primary.  (He is not alone.  Of the candidates who have qualified for the November debate, Cory Booker and Tom Steyer have not yet filed for the New Hampshire primary.   Likewise, Julian Castro — who has met the donor threshold for the November debate but seems unlikely to meet the polling threshold — also has not yet filed for the New Hampshire primary.)  But let’s assume that he (or somebody else who missed the deadline for Alabama) might still get into the race.  Is it too late for somebody new to get in the race.

By requiring that every state allocate delegates proportionately, the Democratic rules theoretically make it possible that nobody will win a majority of delegates to the Democratic convention allowing those delegates to revert back to the days in which the convention actually had to choose between several candidates.  In those days, winning key primaries was a factor in that decision.  So it was not necessary to enter the race early and compete in all primaries. Continue Reading...

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Health & Age in the 2020 Election

By tmess2 | Published October 6, 2019

For a long time, there has been an expectation that Presidential candidates will release their health information.  Being president is a highly stressful job, and a president who is not fully competent has the tools to do a lot of damage to the country and the world.  As such, there is an expectation among voters that candidates will release health information.  Of course, as with every other expectation, President Trump made a farce of this expectation by releasing medical summaries that were not particularly credible to any neutral observer, but there was so much that was wrong with the Trump campaign in 2016 and the mainstream media tries to avoid the appearance of taking a side that the lack of a real report on Trump’s physical and mental health was only a semi-big deal even on MSNBC.

This week, we had a bit of a health scare with Senator Bernie Sanders.  From every report, Senator Sanders is recovering from his surgery and should be able to resume his campaign.  However, this medical emergency does bring back into sharp focus an underlying issue in the nomination process.  President Trump and the top three candidates for the Democratic nomination (according to the polls) are all in their seventies.  And that means that issues of age and health will be in the background of this campaign.  Unfortunately, a healthy discussion of health is not likely.  But there are several things that should be on the table.

First, heart disease is a serious problem in this country impacting people of all ages.  A heart attack or a stroke can occur at any age.  I have known people who have died from a heart attack in their forties and fifties, and I have known people who have survived a heart attack in their seventies and eighties and have returned to a mostly fully functional life.  While people have become more health conscious in the past several decades, there are a lot of dietary and other factors that contribute to heart disease being one of the top causes of death in the U.S. Continue Reading...

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What to Look for in Tonight’s Democratic Debate

By tmess2 | Published October 13, 2015

Unlike the previous three-ring circuses put on by the Republicans, tonight’s debate will only have five candidates.  More importantly, with so few candidates, there is little need for the candidates to go after each other at this point of the race.  Rather, what each candidate needs to accomplish in this debate has very little to do with the other candidates.  With that said, here is my take on what the candidate’s goals need to be heading into the debate.

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Pre-Labor Day Reflection: The State of the Presidential Race — Democratic Primary

By tmess2 | Published August 30, 2015

Presidential primary races follow a somewhat predictable path.  We are nearing the end of the first stage of the race for both parties — the stage in which candidates enter the race or decide not to enter the race (or leave the race when their initial efforts as a candidate prove underwhelming).   Time is starting to run out for candidates to enter the race as the last time a candidate won their party’s nomination while skipping the early primaries is 1968.

Right now the field can be split into three tiers.  In tier one, there is Secretary Clinton.  Even in the most unfavorable polls, she is getting near 50% of the vote nationally (roughly the same numbers that she got in 2008).  As long as Secretary Clinton is getting near 50%, it will be very difficult for another candidate to win the nomination given the Democratic proportionality rules.

In the second tier, you have Senator Sanders and Vice-President Biden.  Both are polling well enough that they will get some delegates.  Senator Sanders is more the anti-Clinton candidate and appeals to those who think that the party needs to run a more liberal candidate.  Vice-President Biden is more the not Clinton candidate, appealing to those who think that Secretary Clinton has too many vulnerabilities to win the general election.  Of course, Vice-President Biden has not yet entered the race.  If he decides not to run, some significant portion of those currently supporting him will decide to hold their noses and support Secretary Clinton.  While it is too early to project individual states, Senator Sanders appears to be competitive in Iowa and New Hampshire.  His problem is that both states are likely to be narrow wins.  While there are some other early states that Senator Sanders might narrowly win (although he may comfortably win Vermont on March 1), Secretary Clinton is favored to win other states by large margins.  Vice-President Biden does not currently have any early states that appear to be places where he can win.  Slightly over half (2,050 out of 3,760) of the pledged delegates come from states that hold their first tier (either a primary or local caucuses) by March 15.  While delegate counts from the caucus states are tentative, if Secretary Clinton is at or over 1,000 delegates, and neither of the other two candidates is over 800 delegates, there will be pressure for Senator Sanders and Vice-President Biden to suspend their campaigns. Continue Reading...

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