The South is probably the region in which there are the fewest competitive races in the country.  The extreme gerrymandering in these states means that outside of Texas, competitive House races are practically non-existent.

Starting with Alabama, while the governor’s mansion and seven U.S. House seats are on the ballot, none of these races currently look close.  This should not be a surprise to anybody.  While Doug Jones was winning the U.S. Senate seat in a close race last year, he only carried one of the Alabama’s seven congressional districts.  With Republican incumbents running in the six districts that Roy Moore carried and none of them a known bigoted pervert, Democrats are not expected to win any of these seats.  Despite the corruption that led to the prior Republican governor resigning, and Kay Ivey taking over last year, the expectation is that Kay Ivey will hold the seat by a comfortable margin.

In Mississippi, the Republicans hold a 3-1 advantage in U.S. House seats now and there is no reason to expect that to change after the election.  There are two Senate races on the ballot.  In the regular election, Republican Roger Wicker should be re-elected.  The interest race is the special election.  Like some other states, Mississippi holds a “jungle primary” (really a general election with a potential run-off) in which all candidates  from all parties run against each other.  Barring a major surprise, this race is headed to a run-off.  And, while Mike Espy is likely to make the run-off, he is unlikely to get his preferred opponent.  There is always a chance that in a lower turnout run-off that Mike Espy might defy expectations and win this seat, but — if this seat becomes important in light of the other results on election day — the money that would pour into Mississippi would make that difficult. Continue Reading...