Tag Archives: Mid-term elections

Virginia and New Jersey — Gaffes and What’s Next

By tmess2 | Published November 6, 2021

It is a quadrennial tradition.  The party in the White House has poor results in the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, and the pundits predict doom and gloom in the mid-term elections.  (Of course, then the party in the White House has losses in the House and maybe losses in the Senate and the pundits say “see we told you so.”  So what lessons should we take from this week’s results.

First, Terry McAuliffe did make a gaffe.  Using the classic definition of a gaffe, he told the truth that nobody wants to hear.  In his case, in response to questions about education, he noted that parents do not get to dictate to the schools what the schools teach.  This statement is partially true.   But as with most sound bites, explaining what was meant takes a lot of time and does not overcome the gut reaction to the original statement.

What is absolutely true is that public schools are not a system of private tutors.  Teachers are responsible for teaching a class of students.    For the system to work, Johnny has to be using the same books and Kathy.  So Johnny’s parents do not get to decide the materials that Johnny has to read for the course. Continue Reading...

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Primary Season — Late Spring

By tmess2 | Published April 29, 2018

Because each state gets to set its own primary date, primary season is a gradual thing.  Putting aside a handful of exceptions (and run-offs), most primaries fall into two clusters.  The first cluster occurs in May and June (starting on May 8 and ending on June 26).  The second cluster occurs in August and September (starting on August 2 and ending on September 13).  During both clusters, most primaries occur on Tuesday, and there is at least one state on each Tuesday (other than May 29).

On May 8, there are primaries in Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia.  Key primaries are the Republican Senate primary in Indiana and West Virginia.  Both are states won by Trump in which Democratic Senators are running for re-election.  In Indiana, you have three candidates running for the Republican nomination.  It’s not clear that it really matters who wins or that there is much difference between the candidates.  West Virginia is a different matter.  The Republicans are scared to death that Don Blankenship could get the nomination.  Blankenship is the former CEO of one of the state’s larger coal miner and did time in prison related to miners who died due to unsafe mining practices.  The national GOP has (through super-pacs) been running adds against Blankenship.  In Ohio, the key races are for Governor with both parties having primaries in the race to replace term-limited John Kasich and Ohio’s 12th District in which there is both a regular primary and a special election primary (most of the candidates are the same in both, so both parties should have the same winner for both primaries, but there is always the chance in a close race that there could be a split result).

On May 15, there are primaries in Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.  The big story is likely to be the new congressional districts in Pennsylvania.   Amazingly, there are no incumbent against incumbent primaries although there could be an incumbent against incumbent general election.  Given the newness of the lines, it will be interesting to see how the local interests will influence the candidates chosen. Continue Reading...

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