Tag Archives: Minnesota

Election Night Preview — Part Three — Prime Time Hour Two (9:00 To 9:59 P.M. Eastern)

By tmess2 | Published October 31, 2024

As the major networks into the second hour of coverage, the focus begins to move from exit polls to actual returns.  Counting the split states in their main time zone, polls have now closed in the overwhelming majority of states.  For the first group of states (the ten that closed before 8:00 p.m. Eastern), you now have a good chunk of the returns from rural counties and you will have most of them by the end of this hour).  For the second group of states (the twenty that closed between 8:00 p.m. and 8:59 p.m. Eastern), those returns are just starting to come in.  In both cases, the people doing the math are comparing those returns to the results from 2016 and 2020 to see what, if anything has changed (percentages, margins, turnout).  And while you tend to have good exit polls for the statewide races, many congressional districts need these early returns to confirm the anticipated results.

This hour will see the remaining polls close in Michigan, Kansas, South Dakota, and Texas.  We will also see the polls close in Nebraska, which like Tennessee in the previous hour, opts to close all polls at the same time even though the state has two time zones (so the eastern part of the state closes at 8:00 p.m. local time and the western part of the state closes at 9:00 p.m. local time).  You have the last of the Eastern Time Zone states, New York, close its polls at 9:00 p.m. local time.  You have four Central Time Zone states — Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, and most significantly Wisconsin — close at 8:00 p.m. local time along with the eastern half of North Dakota.  Finally, polls close at 7:00 p.m. local time in four states located in the Mountain Time Zone of which the most significant is Arizona but also includes Colorado, New Mexico, and Wyoming.  At the end of this hour, we will only be waiting on polls to close in ten states.

Arizona is one of the two big states closing this hour.  While the easiest way for Kamala Harris to win the election is by sweeping the northern blue belt states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), winning in Arizona would allow Vice-President Harris to win if she loses Wisconsin.  At the Senate level, the unpredictable Kyrsten Sinema read the writing on the wall and decided to call it at one term.  Representative Ruben Gallego is favored to keep the Senate seat in Democratic hands but chief election denier Kari Lake will make it closer than it should be and will fight in court for the next three years if she does not win.  The Democrats are favored to keep the three seats that they currently hold in the House, but have fighting chances in three of the six seats held by Republicans.  The first district is a toss-up district (R+1) in which the Democrats have a well-funded challenger.  But we have seen this story before and Representative David Schweikert always seems to find a way to survive.  The second district is a little more of a longshot as it is a lean Republican district (R+6).   While the Democratic candidate has enough funding to run a strong campaign, unlike the first district, Republican Eli Crane has more money than his opponent.  The second is only likely to fall in a Democratic wave.  The last close district in Arizona in the sixth district.  Representative Juan Ciscomani narrowly won in 2022 and is facing a rematch this year.  The fundraising total for both candidates is approximately even. Continue Reading...

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August 13 Primaries — Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, Wisconsin

By tmess2 | Published August 11, 2024

As we are nearing the mid-way point of the summer primaries, there are four states with primaries during this upcoming week — Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin.  However, compared to some previous weeks, this week should be relatively low on drama.

Connecticut is one of those states that uses party conventions as a screening tool for the primary.   There are two ways to get on the primary ballot — getting enough votes at the party convention or getting enough signatures on a petition.  There are only two primaries on the ballot (at least above the state legislative level), both on the Republican side — one for U.S. Senate and one for the Fourth District.  However, neither of the Republican candidates for Senate are funded at anywhere near the level that would make them a viable general election candidate.  While the two candidates in the Fourth have some money, the Fourth District is solidly Democratic.  In other words, neither or these primaries will make much difference in November.

Minnesota has some primaries that might be significant. Continue Reading...

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Super Tuesday Week

By tmess2 | Published March 2, 2024

Tuesday is Super Tuesday — the first Tuesday of the primary cycle in which any state can hold a primary contest.  As most states use state-run primaries, there will be a large number of states on Tuesday.

But, before Super Tuesday, several states that are using party-run contests will be holding Republican contests as the “window” for the Republicans opened yesterday.  (The “window” for Democrats opens on Tuesday.)  As discussed last week, one of the contests today is the second half of the Republican’s Michigan two-step with the Republican state convention which will be allocating the “district” level delegates.  In addition to Michigan, today will see events in Missouri and Idaho.

The Missouri Republican rules are somewhat ambiguous.  It looks like they are doing a traditional caucus with a 15% threshold and an unspecified winner-take-all kicker at local option.  But rather than allocating delegates based on today’s vote (which is what the national rules appear to require), they are merely binding the delegates chosen today to vote the same preference at the district conventions (which should effectively have the same result).  Missouri is using a caucus because our current Secretary of State repeatedly lied and claimed that the state-run primary was nonbinding (when the rules of both party made the primary binding) and a repeal of the primary was slipped into an omnibus election bill which passed despite the unanimous opposition of Democratic legislature).  The Democrats will be holding a party-run primary in three weeks with a mail-in option. Continue Reading...

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The Midterms — Preview (Part 3)

By tmess2 | Published November 2, 2022

By the time that polls close in Arkansas at 7:30 p.m. Central ST, we should be starting to get votes from the early states, but most of the key races will still be classified as “too early to call.”  Arkansas has become so red over the past two decades that none of the races are likely to be close.  The big races will be the ballot issue.  From the right is a proposition to require supermajorities for propositions in future elections and a provision enshrining a version of the Religious Freedom Restoration Act in the Arkansas Constitution.  As we have seen at the federal level, this Free Exercise Clause on steroids will cause significant problems in Arkansas as everything will become somebody’s religious belief.  Arkansas will also vote on legalizing marijuana.

At 8:00 p.m. CST, polls will close in the remaining parts of Kansas, Michigan, South Dakota, and Texas (with those races covered in Part 2 of the preview).    Polls will close for the entire state in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

Arizona will feature several key races.  At the state office level, Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State are all open seats.  The Republicans have nominated Trumpist candidates for these positions who refuse to commit to recognizing the election results in 2024.   Particularly for governor, they have nominated a media celebrity who is not qualified.  But these races are currently too close to call.  For Senate, the Republicans have also nominated an extremist.  It looks like Senator Mark Kelly will hold onto the seat, but the seat is probably the third most likely pickup for the Republicans after Nevada and Georgia.   If the Republicans have a good night, that seat could flip. Continue Reading...

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Election Night Preview — Part 3 (9 PM to 10 PM EST)

By tmess2 | Published October 29, 2020

As we noted in the previous two posts, a key part of the night will be how fast votes are counted and, in particular, what share of early and mail-in votes are released on election night and how many mail-in votes are potentially still in the mail and eligible to be counted.   There is also the issue of how long the lines were — especially in urban precincts — which could delay the count of votes cast on election day.  At this point in time, we should have projections from Kentucky and Indiana and the bluer and redder states from the 7 PM EST hour.  The question during this hour is whether we start getting projections from some of the swingier states with 7 PM closing times like Florida and Georgia have been called, and, if so, in which direction.

During this hour, nine states will close across the entire state and the remainder of the polls will close in Kansas, Michigan, South Dakota, and Texas.  South Dakota is unlikely to be close for any race, and the majority of Kansas and Texas close at 8 PM  EST.  What to look for in Michigan, Texas, and Kansas is addressed in Part Two.  Besides these partial closures, we have full closures in Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Wyoming.

Louisiana is a weird state in that there are no party primaries.  Everybody runs on the general election ballot, but it takes a majority to be elected.  While none of the races are expected to flip, there is always the chance that the sheer number of candidates on the ballot could result in a run-off.  Of course, some of these run-offs will feature two Republicans (or, in the one district that the Democrats hold, two Democrats).  Wyoming also features no close contests and should be an early call across the board. Continue Reading...

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Cut Time

By tmess2 | Published September 5, 2020

A political party serves two fundamental purposes.

First, people form and join political parties to advance policy.  (Of course, there are disagreements on the exact priorities or the specific details of policy proposals.)  In fact, one of the biggest mistakes that the Framers made was not anticipating that, once there were elections for federal offices, the groups in New Jersey that favored rural farmers over “urban” merchants would unite with similar groups in Georgia (and vice versa for the groups that favored merchants) rather than stay isolated in their own states.  Simply put, if you want a single-payer health care system, you are more likely to get it by forming a large group with other supporters of that type of proposal than working on your own.

Second, the way that political parties try to advance policy is by getting their candidates elected to office.  You can’t pass a single-payer system if the opponents of single-payer have the majority in Congress or control the White House.  And political parties win elections by finding good candidates and raising and spending money to support those candidates.   Especially in the year before the election, money tends to be spent on creating tools (like voter databases and helping state parties) that are available to all candidates that run on the party’s ticket.  And at this point in time, with the exception of the last handful of state primaries, the parties have their candidates. Continue Reading...

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Delegate Math 2020 — Super Tuesday (Part 2 — Early Prime Time States)

By tmess2 | Published March 1, 2020

On any election day, 8:00 p.m. EST/7:00 p.m. CST, is a key time when polls close in a significant number of states in the Eastern and Central time zones.  (For the general election, the polls close in seventeen states at that time, the largest single batch of states.)  On Super Tuesday, six states will close their polls at that time:  Alabama, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.  As with the states closing earlier that evening, poll closing is not an exact end to the voting.  Instead, all voters still in line at a precinct still get to vote.  Additionally, election workers have to get the ballots from the precinct to a centralized vote counting location.  So there is a lag between the polls closing and the results being reported.  However, this time is when the news media can release exit polls and make projections and counties can report the totals from early votes.

Before going much further into the details, one significant change from earlier reports.  Maine law currently allow parties to opt to use ranked-choice voting for their primaries.  Early drafts of the Maine delegate selection plan indicated that the Maine Democrats would use ranked-choice voting.  Ultimately, the party decided against using ranked-choice voting.  (Apparently, Maine’s law required a party using ranked-choice to continue the process until one candidate got a majority of the vote and did not give the option of using it to determine who met a party’s threshold for delegates).

While Tom Steyer has ended his campaign, we still have five candidates in the race who have won delegates in at least one state.  We also have Michael Bloomberg who has put a lot of money into these states.  So far, we have not had any district (or state-wide) result in which more than four candidates reached 15%, but every one of these six candidates has at least one state or district in which they expect to be viable.  How many are viable in each district will impact the math for the distribution.  (And with early voting/absentee ballots and his ad spending, Tom Steyer could still get a significant number of votes in some locations even if he is not viable.) Continue Reading...

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Delegate Selection Plans — Wyoming and Update

By tmess2 | Published April 13, 2019

As more delegate selection plans are posted on-line, we have two states that have confirmed that they are switching from a caucus to a state-run primary.  The first is Minnesota.  Previously, the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party had informed the Minnesota Secretary of State that it would be participating in the state-run primary, but we now have the draft plan which bases delegate allocation on the results of the primary.  The other state is Washington.  When we looked at the draft plan for Washington last month, the Washington Democrats had submitted two plans — one based on the caucus and one based on the primary.    Since then, the state of Washington finalized the scheduling of the primary for March (moving it up from May) and, at last weekend’s state committee meeting, the Washington Democrats opted for the primary-based plan.

With these two changes, we were down to a handful of states.  Yesterday, Wyoming released their draft plan for 2020.  Wyoming is keeping with a caucus system using, as in the past, a county caucus as the first step.  While there is not a specific set date in the plan, it does indicate an intent to hold the county caucuses on a weekend in March which would be earlier than the mid-April date from 2016.  To meet the goals of making access to the caucuses easier for voters, Wyoming is tentatively calling for allowing those who are unable to attend the county caucuses to participate by submitting a “surrogate affidavit.”  The exact details of how this will work is still being discussed and is not clear from the current draft.  (The name suggests a proxy vote, but my hunch is that — either at the final plan approved by the state or the final plan as amended in response to the national Rules and By-laws committee requests — it will be more like a typical absentee ballot.) 

The Wyoming plan uses the preference vote at the county caucuses to elect state convention delegates.  It uses a separate preference vote at the state convention to allocate the national convention delegates.  This part of the plan is clearly contrary to the national party rules.  In relevant part, Rule 2.K.5 requires that the delegate allocation be locked in based on the final preference vote at the first determining step.  In Wyoming’s plan, the first determining step is the county caucuses.   As such, assuming that Wyoming does not correct this part of the plan in the final draft, it is likely that the Rules and By-laws Committee will require a change prior to approving Wyoming’s plan.  Given what the other states are doing, Wyoming will probably be given the option of using either the raw vote totals (which they have used in the past) or the state convention delegates won.  As noted in previous posts, using state convention delegates won eliminate the effect of high turnout in some parts of the state but can also penalize candidates who are get just over 15% of the raw vote state-wide (as those candidates are likely to miss the threshold in some of the counties converting 13% of the vote in those counties into 0% of the delegates potentially causing the candidate to slip beneath 15% if the delegates won state-wide).  Continue Reading...

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2018 Mid-Term Election Preview — Great Plains

By tmess2 | Published October 29, 2018

Like the South (and the northern part of the Rocky Mountain region), this area of the country has been trending Republican, but there are some opportunities for Democratic gains.

Minnesota might be the weirdest state in the country this year.  Democrats are in good shape to hold both U.S. Senate seats that are on the ballot and will probably also win the race for Governor to keep that seat.  Four of the House seats in Minnesota could change hands — two currently held by the Democrats and two currently held by the Republicans.  A significant part of the Second and Third Districts contain the suburbs of the Twin Cities, and Democrats could pick up both seats over Republican incumbents.  The First and Eighth Districts are open seats as the Democratic incumbents tried to run for state office.  Both are mostly rural districts with the Eighth also featuring some declining industry making them good targets for Republican wins.  Thus, in nine days, Minnesota could be anything from 7-1 in favor of the Democrats to 5-3 in favor of the Republicans.

In Iowa, all of the districts except the Fourth District (Western Iowa) are designed to be swing districts.  In good years for the Republicans, those seats go Republican.  In good years for the Democrats, those seats go Democratic.  Right now Republicans have a 3-1 edge, but Democrats are favored to take both the First and Third.  Democrats also are favored to win the race for Governor.

Missouri features some of the weirdest shaped congressional districts in the county (the dead lizard Fifth District and the claw shapes of the Third and Fourth Districts).  The two closest seats are the D+7 Fifth District and the R+8 Second District.  After Republicans drew these lines in 2011, Democrats hoped that, by 2018 or 2020, the Second District might become close enough to be winnable.  Maybe if Ann Wagner had run for the Senate, the Democrats might have been favored to win an open seat, but she didn’t.  With Representative Wagner running for re-election, Democrats still have an outside chance at winning the district, but it will take strong turnout in the Democratic parts of St. Louis County.  While Representative Wagner deciding to stick in the House is helping the Republicans keep their 6-2 majority in House seats, it is almost certainly hurting them in the Senate race as Attorney General Josh Hawley has proven to be an underwhelming candidate.  To make up for his deficiencies, Republican Super PACS have been pouring money into the State for the past twenty months.  If I hear one more ad from Mitch McConnell’s PAC claiming to know what Missouri values are and alleging that Claire is part of the Republican establishment, I will literally scream.  Democratic groups have done a decent job of emphasizing AG Hawley’s actions undermining pre-existing condition coverage at the same time that he says he is for requiring insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions.  At the present time, the best bet is for the status quo.  Because St. Louis County is a key part of the state, however, there is some linkage between the Senate race and the House race.  If Representative Wagner wins by double digits, the Republicans could pick up the Senate seat.  If Representative Wagner loses, Clair should win the Senate seat by a comfortable margin.

Oklahoma is a very red state.  Even in wave election year, Democrats tend to have slim chances at best.  At R+10, the Fifth District is the closest in the state, and Democrats have an outside chance of picking it up.  The Governor’s race is also winnable, but it is definitely a long shot.

There are three political parties in Kansas — the Democrats, traditional moderate and conservative Republicans, and far right Republicans.  When the Republican Party goes off the rails, Democrats can win races in Kansas.  In 2011, Republicans opted to “crack” the Democratic regions of the state (the state capital, the University of Kansas, and the Kansas City suburbs) between the Second and Third Districts.  While that leaves all four districts favoring Republicans, it does give the Democrats a chance to win both districts in Democratic years.  Right now, it seems like the Democrats will win in the Third District and the Second District is too close to call.  The race in the Second District might depend on how many students at the University of Kansas have registered to vote at college and how many are voting absentee back home.  The race for Governor may come down to how well the Independent candidate does and whom he takes votes from.  Right now, the polls are showing a dead heat between Spawn of Satan Kris Kobach and Democrat Laura Kelly, but the independent Greg Orman is polling at around 10%.   Third party candidates who are trailing by a significant amount tend to have some fall off as the general election approaches.  Since Orman is probably getting a lot of his support from Republicans who hate Kobach but would rather not vote for a Democrat, the question is whether these voters will hold their noses and vote for Kobach or find their way to vote for a Democrat.

Nebraska has races for Governor and Senate, but the incumbent Republicans look pretty safe.  As always, the Democrats have decent chances in the Second District (Omaha area).  In 2011, the Republicans drew the lines to make this district slightly more favorable to them,    There haven’t been a lot of polls in this district, but it looks like the Republicans are slightly ahead.  This is one of the districts where primary voters (opting for a slightly less well-known and more progressive candidate) may have made the task just a little too hard for the blue team.

South Dakota has races for Governor and its single Congressional seat.  The Democrats have an outside shot at winning the race for governor and taking that position away from the Republicans.  The House seat is probably out of reach.

In North Dakota, the big race is the U.S. Senate seat.  Senator Heidi Heitkamp is a perfect example of the problem facing Democrats in red states.  While she has not been 100% reliable for Democrats in the Senate, she has probably voted the party line more often that is safe for a candidate in such a state.  Republicans are doing their best to stack the deck against her with voting rules designed to make it difficult for Native Americans to vote (their tribal IDs do not meet the new requirements).  If there is a strong Native vote, Senator Heitkamp might barely survive.  If tribal turnout is depressed, the Republicans could take this seat.  The single House seat seems likely to stay Republican.

On the referendum side, Missouri has a slew of issues on the ballot.  There is an ethics reform proposal that includes limits on campaign financing and new rules for redistricting designed to prevent gerrymandering in state legislative races.  There is also a proposal to increase the state minimum wage over a period of years to $12.  There are three competing “medical” marijuana proposals.  In Nebraska, there is a proposal for Medicaid expansion.  North Dakota has an ethics reform package and a “recreational” marijuana proposal.  South Dakota has an ethics reform package and a series of proposals trying to make it harder for voters to propose and approve constitutional amendments (not surprisingly, those restrictions were proposed by the state legislature).

In short, progressive groups have managed to get some referendums on the ballot which should help Democrats win some close races, but there are not that many winnable races.  Democrats have good chances to win six House races, and have outside shots at two others.  On the other hand, Republicans have decent chances at winning two House seats.  Additionally, Republicans are favored to gain one U.S. Senate seat and could win a second.  If Democrats are to have any shot at winning control of the Senate, they need to hold at least one seat in this region.  If the Democrats can have a net gain of five or more House seats in this region, the Democrats should gain control of the House.  If the net gain is only one, the chances of gaining control of the House will shrink substantially.

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Thinking 2021

By tmess2 | Published September 15, 2018

One weakness that the Democratic Party has had over the years is getting loosely attached Democratic voters to think beyond the current election.  But many components of the political system elect members in staggered elections (e,g,, the U.S. Senate); so gaining the ability to pass your legislation requires a multi-year plan.

While in the weeks ahead, posts on this site will undoubtedly focus on the race for power in D.C., this post is about the other offices that will be on the ballot in November — state positions.  In less than nineteen months, residents of the U.S. will receive and then return their census forms for the 2020 census.  In slightly over two years, the Census Bureau will release the numbers from that census to the states which will then begin anew the process of drawing the political maps that will control U.S. House (and state legislative elections) between 2022 and 2031.  And some of the people elected at the state level this November will still be around in 2021 to vote on these new maps.

The big office in most of the states is governor.  There are 36 governor’s offices up for election this cycle with Republicans currently holding 26 of them.  In 34 states, the term of office is four years; so the winner this year will be around in 2021.  (In two states — New Hampshire and Vermont, both held by Republicans — the term of office is two years; so we will get another shot at removing the Republican in 2020 and only New Hampshire is likely to have multiple congressional seats after the 2020 census.)   In some of these states — Arizona, California, and Iowa — the redistricting process minimizes the influence of the governor or legislature; so, while — for other reasons — holding California and picking up Arizona and Iowa would be useful, they will not have a big impact on redistricting in 2021.  There are also some states that currently only have one representative in Congress eliminating the need for Congressional Districts — Alaska (Independent); South Dakota (Republican), and Wyoming (Republican).  Even after eliminating these states, you have twenty states held by Republicans and eight states held by Democrats in which the winner of the 2018 election for governor will be around in 2021 and have the power to veto or sign any proposed congressional map.

In many states, there will also be a state senate election.  There are three basic models for how states elect state senates.  In twelve states, the term for state senators is two years.  While it is always better to be the incumbent than the challenger, the winners in 2018 will have to run again in 2020.  In twenty-seven states, the term is four years but the state has staggered elections.  In these states, half of the state senators are up for election this year and the winner will still be in office (barring some reason for leaving office early) for the 2021 redistricting process.  Finally, there are eleven states in which the term is four years but all senators run at the same time.  Of these last eleven states, three (Alabama, Maryland, and Michigan) are on this year’s ballot, and the winners will still be around in 2021.

Looking at the individual states on the ballot, there are several key states.  Going in alphabetical order, the first key one is Colorado.  There is currently a Democratic governor, but the seat is an open seat in this election due to term limits.  The Republicans currently have a narrow 18-16 advantage in the state senate with one independent with half the seats on November’s ballot.  Colorado has seven congressional seats (currently three Democrats and four Republicans) but is currently likely to pick up an eighth seat in 2020.  If Democrats control redistricting, the new lines should be at least 4-4 if not 5-3 in favor of the Democrats.  If Republicans control redistricting, the lines will probably be 5-3 in favor of Republicans.

The biggest state in which Democrats have a realistic chance is Florida.  With current governor Health Care Fraud running for U.S. Senator as the Republican nominee, the seat is open and the Republicans have opted for a Trump apologist as their nominee.   The Republicans currently as a result of very gerrymandered lines drawn in 2011 have a 16-11 advantage in the Florida delegation, and Florida is projected to gain two new seats.  This year, half of the state senate is up for election and Republicans have a 23-16 majority with one vacancy.  If Democrats can pick up two or three seats this year, they would have a chance at gaining control of the state senate in 2020.

Georgia is one of the states with two-year state senate terms but the governor’s seat (currently held by Republicans) is up for grabs.  While Georgia leans Republican, the Democratic nominee, Stacey Abrams, has a chance at pulling off the upset as the Republicans opted to go hard right in their pick.  The Republicans currently have a 10-4 advantage in the Congressional Delegation.  With a Democratic governor giving us a seat at the table, that split would probably go to 8-6 or 9-5.

Another big prize up for grabs is Illinois where the Republican incumbent governor is very vulnerable.  Half of the state senate is also up for grabs.  Democrats currently have an 11-7 advantage in the congressional delegation but Illinois is likely to lose one seat.  Who wins this year could determine which party gives up a seat in 2021.

Kansas is a bit of a sleeper.  The current lines are drawn to have two lean Republican seats in the KC suburbs.  The good news of such lines is that Democrats have an outside shot at winning two seats, the bad news is that Democrats typically end up with no seats (the current situation).  It is clearly possible to draw lines to create a 3-1 split.  After a close primary election, the Republicans nominated Spawn of Satan Kris Kobach over the “incumbent” governor giving the Democrats a chance to pick up this seat.

The Republican governor in Maryland is favored to win re-election.  While the state is solidly Democratic, that probably means that the current 7-1 split in the Democrats favor in Congress will revert back to its past 6-2 split.

Michigan is another state that Republicans grossly gerrymandered in 2011 giving them a 9-5 advantage in the Congressional delegation from a lean Democrat state.  Besides an open governor’s seat (with good chances for a Democratic gain), the full state senate is on the ballot this year.  The Republicans have a solid majority in the state senate; so the real Democratic goal this year is to win enough seats to sustain a veto and force the Republicans to negotiate over fair lines, particularly as the state is likely to lose a seat in 2020.

In Minnesota, the governor’s seat is an open race (currently held by Democrats) with no state senate seats on this year’s ballot.  The Democrats currently have a 5-3 advantage in the congressional delegation but some of the seats currently held by the Democrats actually lean Republican.  With the state likely to lose a seat, it would not be too difficult for Republicans to draw a map that would solidify 4-3 Republican advantage.

Another big state is Ohio.  Like in Michigan, a Republican governor is stepping down and things are looking promising for the Democrats to take the governor’s mansion.  Like in Michigan, the 2011 lines are lopsided giving the Republicans a 12-4 advantage in a toss-up state and the state is likely to lose a seat in 2020.  Unlike in Michigan, only half of the state senate is on the ballot this year.   However, as in Michigan, the state senate lines are drawn in such a way as to all but guarantee a Republican majority and the real goal is to gain enough seats to be able to sustain a veto.

In Pennsylvania, the courts struck down a lopsided map earlier this year, but in 2021 the Republicans will certainly try again.  If the Democrats can hold the governor’s seat in this year’s election that will be a much harder task for Republicans.  Half of the state senate seats are up for election this year.  As in Michigan and Pennsylvania, the state senate map favors the Republicans but the current numbers are right on the line for being able to sustain a veto.  Picking up one or two of the twenty-five seats on this year’s ballot would certainly help.  Pennsylvania looks likely to lose one of its eighteen seats in congress after the 2020 census.

Finally, there is Wisconsin.  Another great example of Republican gerrymandering in 2011.  And Democrats have a real chance at retiring Scott Walker.  The Republicans have a narrow lead of 18-15 in the state senate.  With half of the seats up for election, Democrats could easily be in control of the state senate in 2021.  Picking up one or two seats this time would increase those chances.

While as discussed in past columns on gerrymandering, the Republicans do have some geographic advantages due to self-sorting of voters, but the current median district has a Partisan Vote Index that is an R+3.  That means that Democrats need over 53% of the national popular vote for House to be favored to take a majority in the House.  We need to work hard over the next four years to get fairer lines so that having the support of the majority of Americans is enough for Democrats to have the majority in the U.S. House.  This November’s races at the state level can be a good down payment on that effort if we do well in all of these states.

 

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