-
Recent Posts
- Election Night Preview — Part Five — The Local News and the West Coast (11:00 To 11:59 P.M. Eastern)
- Election Night Preview — Part Four — Prime Time Hour Three (10:00 to 10:59 P.M. Eastern)
- Election Night Preview — Part Three — Prime Time Hour Two (9:00 To 9:59 P.M. Eastern)
- Election Night Preview — Part Two — Prime Time Hour One (8:00 to 8:59 p.m. Eastern)
- Exit Polls and Projections
- Election Night Preview — Part I — Pre-Prime Time
- Voting and Vote Counting 101
Search
Welcome to DCW
Upcoming Events
7/15/24 - GOP Convention
TBD - Democratic Convention
11/5/24 - Election DayTools
Archives
Tag Cloud
2008 Democratic National Convention 2012 Democratic National Convention 2012 Republican National Convention 2016 Democratic National Convention 2016 Republican National Convention 2020 Census 2020 Democratic Convention 2024 Democratic Convention 2024 Republican Convention Abortion Affordable Care Act Alabama Arizona Bernie Sanders California Donald Trump First Amendment Florida Free Exercise Clause Free Speech Georgia Hillary Clinton Immigration Iowa Joe Biden John Kasich Kansas Maine Marco Rubio Michigan Missouri Nevada New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania redistricting South Carolina Supreme Court Ted Cruz Texas United Kingdom Virginia Voting Rights Act WisconsinDCW in the News
Blog Roll
Site Info
-
Recent Posts
- Election Night Preview — Part Five — The Local News and the West Coast (11:00 To 11:59 P.M. Eastern)
- Election Night Preview — Part Four — Prime Time Hour Three (10:00 to 10:59 P.M. Eastern)
- Election Night Preview — Part Three — Prime Time Hour Two (9:00 To 9:59 P.M. Eastern)
- Election Night Preview — Part Two — Prime Time Hour One (8:00 to 8:59 p.m. Eastern)
- Exit Polls and Projections
Recent Comments
Archives
- November 2024
- October 2024
- September 2024
- August 2024
- July 2024
- June 2024
- May 2024
- April 2024
- March 2024
- February 2024
- January 2024
- December 2023
- November 2023
- October 2023
- September 2023
- August 2023
- July 2023
- June 2023
- May 2023
- April 2023
- March 2023
- February 2023
- January 2023
- December 2022
- November 2022
- October 2022
- September 2022
- August 2022
- July 2022
- June 2022
- May 2022
- April 2022
- March 2022
- February 2022
- January 2022
- December 2021
- November 2021
- October 2021
- September 2021
- August 2021
- July 2021
- June 2021
- May 2021
- April 2021
- March 2021
- February 2021
- January 2021
- December 2020
- November 2020
- October 2020
- September 2020
- August 2020
- July 2020
- June 2020
- May 2020
- April 2020
- March 2020
- February 2020
- January 2020
- December 2019
- November 2019
- October 2019
- September 2019
- August 2019
- July 2019
- June 2019
- May 2019
- April 2019
- March 2019
- February 2019
- January 2019
- December 2018
- November 2018
- October 2018
- September 2018
- August 2018
- July 2018
- June 2018
- May 2018
- April 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- January 2018
- December 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- June 2017
- May 2017
- April 2017
- March 2017
- February 2017
- January 2017
- December 2016
- November 2016
- October 2016
- September 2016
- August 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- May 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- December 2015
- November 2015
- October 2015
- September 2015
- August 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- April 2015
- March 2015
- February 2015
- January 2015
- November 2014
- September 2014
- July 2014
- June 2014
- March 2014
- January 2014
- August 2013
- August 2012
- November 2011
- August 2011
- January 2011
- May 2010
- January 2009
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
- December 2006
- November 2006
- October 2006
- September 2006
- August 2006
- July 2006
- June 2006
- May 2006
- April 2006
- March 2006
- February 2006
- January 2006
- December 2005
- November 2005
Categories
- 2019-nCoV
- 2020 Convention
- 2020 General Election
- 2020DNC
- 2024 Convention
- 2028 Convention
- Anti-Semitism
- Bernie Sanders
- Charlotte
- Chicago
- Civil Rights
- Cleveland
- Climate Change
- Coronavirus
- Coronavirus Tips
- COVID-19
- Debates
- Delegate Count
- Delegates
- Democratic Debates
- Democratic Party
- Democrats
- DemsinPhilly
- DemsInPHL
- Disaster
- DNC
- Donald Trump
- Economy
- Elections
- Electoral College
- Federal Budget
- Freedom of the Press
- General Election Forecast
- GOP
- Healthcare
- Hillary Clinton
- Holidays
- Hotels
- House of Representatives
- Houston
- Identity Politics
- Impeachment
- Iowa Caucuses
- Jacksonville
- Joe Biden
- Judicial
- LGBT
- Mariner Pipeline
- Merrick Garland
- Meta
- Milwaukee
- Money in Politics
- Music
- National Security
- Netroots Nation
- New Yor
- New York
- NH Primary
- Notes from Your Doctor
- NoWallNoBan
- Pandemic
- Philadelphia
- PHLDNC2016
- Platform
- Politics
- Polls
- Presidential Candidates
- Primary and Caucus Results
- Primary Elections
- Public Health
- Rant
- Republican Debates
- Republicans
- Resist
- RNC
- Russia
- Senate
- Snark
- Student Loan Debt
- Sunday with the Senators
- Superdelegates
- Syria
- The Politics of Hate
- Uncategorized
- Vaccines
- War
- Weekly White House Address
Meta
Tag Archives: Montana
Election Night Preview — Part Four — Prime Time Hour Three (10:00 to 10:59 P.M. Eastern)
After the heavy numbers of the previous two hours of prime time, the final hour of prime time represents a slight slowing of polls closing. Of course, that will be made up for as several of the close states will either be projected or turn into all night counts.
There are three partial closings and three full closings this hour. On the partial closing, we have the second of two 9:00 p.m. local time closings with the eastern (Central Time Zone) part of North Dakota. You also have all but the panhandle of Idaho closing at 8:00 p.m. local time (Mountain Time Zone). For both of these states, the part closing represents the majority of the state. The last partial closing is the one exception to the general trend. Oregon is the one start in which the majority of the state is in the western part of the state. So this post will only cover the partial closing in Idaho and North Dakota with Oregon in the next post. The three full closings are Montana and Utah at 8:00 p.m. local time and Nevada at 7:00 p.m. local time.
Idaho, like Wyoming in the previous post, is solidly red. If Democrats are competitive at either the presidential level or for either of the congressional seats, then it will have been a very good night for Democrats. The one contest of interest is a ballot proposition seeking to go to a top four primary with ranked choice voting. While Idaho is not likely to turn blue anytime soon, a top four primary with ranked choice voting might mean more moderate Republicans representing Idaho in the future.
Posted in Elections, General Election Forecast
Also tagged Donald Trump, Idaho, Jacky Rosen, Jon Tester, Kamala Harris, Mitt Romney, Nevada, North Dakota, Utah
Leave a comment
Georgia Runoff
The last election of 2022 will conclude on Tuesday with the runoff election for U.S. Senator in Georgia. While there are still some races that will go to recounts, all of the statewide and congressional races seem to be outside the margin at which a recount could make a difference. (There are three races with margins between 500 and 600 votes — Arizona Attorney General, California Thirteenth District, and Colorado Third District. In the Minnestoa Senate recount in 2008, the net swing from the original results to the recount results was 450 votes with an additional 87 votes gained in the election contest. The closest of the three races going to recount is 511. While other recounts have resulted in bigger swings, they were in races with bigger margins and Minnesota remains the largest swing that changed the results of a race.
The significance of the Senate race is not quite as big as it was in 2021 due to the Republicans apparently taking the House (but the Republican’s inability to reach a consensus on the next Speaker will be the subject of a future post) and the fact that the Democrats already have 50 seats. But the result still matters for five key reasons.
First, the additional seat will alter the composition of committees. With a 50-50 Senate, the committees are evenly divided. While the rules currently allow a bill or nomination to proceed to the Senate floor on a tie vote, a 51-49 Senate would result in the Democrats having a majority on the committees.
Posted in Elections, General Election Forecast, Senate
Also tagged Florida, Georgia, Herschel Walker, Joe Manchin, Krysten Sinema, Missouri, Ohio, Raphael Warnock, Texas, West Virginia
Comments Off on Georgia Runoff
The Midterms-Preview (Part 4)
By 9 p.m. Central ST, we will be getting some results from the early states which will give us some idea of how the night is going with a strong emphasis on the some. As noted in Part 1 of this series, every state treats the counting of mail-in votes. In some states, like Missouri and Texas, mail-in votes are likely to be the first results reported. In other states, like Michigan, those votes are likely to reported after the election day results. And for election day results, precinct sizes (more importantly the number of voters per election judge) and other factors have historically resulted in longer lines at closing time in urban area. When combined with the number of precincts in urban areas, in early states, rural areas are likely to report a greater share of their results in the first couple of hours. Both of these factors distort the conclusiveness of early vote counts (which is why the best analysts start looking at what vote is still outstanding — both where that vote is and the total number of votes — in forecasting whether it is possible to call the race). But by this time of the evening, there is some hint at the level of turnout in the areas that tend to vote Democratic and the areas that vote Republican and which way swing areas are swinging.
In turn, this information gives us some idea of the accuracy of pre-election polls. In viewing pre-election polls, there are three things to remember. First, in viewing them, you should focus on two things — margins and the size of the “undecided” voters. In every poll, there will be some undecided voters (and, because voters tend not to want to waste votes, the supporters of third-party candidates should be treated as undecided as a significant share of them will move to one of the two major candidates by election day). Because undecided voters will not split 50-50, a large pool of undecided voters makes the margin less reliable. An eight percent lead with ten percent undecided is more likely to hold than a twelve percent lead with twenty percent undecided. On the other hand, it is likely that both candidates will pick up some undecideds. So both candidates are likely to end up with something higher than their last poll number. Second, in looking at the margin, every poll has a margin of error (typically between three percent and four percent). That margin of error applies to each candidate. Which means, in theory, that even a well-constructed poll can be off on the margin by six or seven percent.. Part of the error is that every pollster has their model on who is likely to vote and how to weight responders to overcome response bias. Some years the actual pool of voters is bluer than the model shows and in other years the actual pool of voters is redder than the model shows. Finally, a poll is a snapshot in time. Events occurring after the poll is taken will move a small percentage of voters (both undecided voters and voters who were tentatively supporting a candidate). In short, it is highly probable that the polls will be off by some margin. And while the direction and size of the error will not be uniform nationally, the early returns can give an idea of the direction and size of the error.
As things stand four days out, the polls seem to be indicating a red ripple which will switch a narrow Democratic majority in the House to a narrow Republican majority in the House. The Senate could go either way and the hold of state offices could swing either way as well.
Posted in Elections, General Election Forecast, House of Representatives, Senate
Also tagged 2022 elections, Idaho, Nevada, North Dakota, Utah
Comments Off on The Midterms-Preview (Part 4)
Redistricting — Montana
Montana is unique among the states that gained a seat from reapportionment in that it will only have two seats in Congress. With only two districts, there is limited room for playing games with district lines — every move to make one district safer makes the other district less safe. By contrast, as the number of districts grow, it’s possible to offset big changes in one district with small changes in multiple districts. In other words, while it’s possible to pack (putting a lot of members of the other party in a small number of districts) and crack (splitting potential pockets of support for other parties among multiple districts) when you have a large number of districts, you have to either pack or crack when you have two districts. Simply put, the choice is do you have two roughly similar districts (with the majority party favored in both by cracking the supporters of the other voters among two districts) or do you go for one safer district and one somewhat vulnerable district (with the supporters of the minority party packed into one district).
The other thing about the small states is that they fall into two categories. Some states (like Utah, Nevada, Oregon, and Kansas) have significant metropolitan areas that are large enough to be the base of one or more districts. Other states like Mississippi and Iowa really lack one metropolitan area that is large enough to be the base of a district. Montana falls into this latter category.
In looking at potential maps, I did two alternatives. One was a basic east-west divide somewhat similar to the way that Montana did when they used to have two districts. While the exact borders can be adjusted. A basic east-west divide will lead to one safe Republican district and one safe-lean Republican district depending on how aggressive the legislature is in moving Democrats into the western District (which would be the Democrats best chances at winning a district). You get the same thing with a basic north-south divide. To get a Democratic district requires something of a jagged semi-circle with tentacles reaching out to connect the Democratic pockets of the state and counter-tentacles reaching the reddest parts of the southwestern part of the state. Since the state as a whole is safe Republican (around 53-42), it is much easier for the Republicans to get two districts than for Democrats to get a real chance at splitting the two districts.
Posted in Elections, House of Representatives
Also tagged 2020 Census, redistricting
Comments Off on Redistricting — Montana
Redistricting 2021 — The Numbers
On Monday, four days ahead of its latest target date and almost four months behind the statutory date, the Census Bureau released the national and state-level results from the Census including the apportionment numbers that determine how many representatives each get. As can be expected, there are multiple different tables summarizing the data in different ways for us number geeks.
The bottom line table shows the apportionment population (both those living in the state and those residing overseas — like military personnel — who call that state home), the number of representatives that each state is getting, and the change in representation. We will get back to the change in a minute, but the big level number is that the apportionment population is slightly over 331 million. As such, the average size (mean) of each congressional district is just under 761 thousand. Alaska, Vermont, and Wyoming have fewer people than the average congressional district. While the apportionment formula does not work for calculating the population needed for the first representative, even Wyoming has enough population to be entitled to three-quarters of a representative.
If, D.C. and Puerto Rico were states, Puerto Rico would be just ahead of Utah (which has four representatives) and just behind Connecticut (which has five representatives) and D.C. would be between Vermont and Alaska. Given that Puerto Rico is only slightly larger than Utah (which was not close to getting a fifth representative and far enough behind Connecticut, Puerto Rico would be due for four representatives. If both were states, the five states that would lose a representative would have been Oregon, Colorado, and Montana (all of which gained a seat), California (which lost a seat), and Minnesota (which barely avoided losing a seat). The chart of priority values that allows us to consider the impact of adding Puerto Rico and D.C. also shows that Minnesota barely held onto its last seat and New York barely lost its seat. Apparently, given the formula, Minnesota would have lost that seat if it had 24 fewer people, and New York would have kept its seat if it had 89 more people. (The disparity in numbers is caused by the fact that the two states have different number of seats.
Posted in House of Representatives
Also tagged 2020 Census, apportionment, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, redistricting, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia
Comments Off on Redistricting 2021 — The Numbers
Election Night Preview — Part 4 (10 PM to 11 PM EST)
It is very highly unlikely that we will have a projected winner when the clock strikes 10 on the east coast. Mathematically, it’s possible as by 10:01 p.m. polls will officially be closed in states with 450 electoral votes. But, practically speaking, it would take all of the toss-up states that have closed before then to have enough votes counted that the networks felt comfortable projecting them, and they would all have to go the same way. Even in years like 2008, enough of the Democratic vote is in states in which polls close at 10 or 11 p.m. EST, that it would take flipping states like Texas and Georgia to have a shot at reaching 270 before 11 p.m.
Looking at 2016, the first battleground state — Ohio — was called at 10:36 p.m. Depending on how things play out with mail-in ballots and early voting, some of the battleground states might get called faster, but others are likely to be called much later.
In this hour, we will have partial closures in Idaho, North Dakota, and Oregon. In North Dakota and Idaho, the majority of the population is in the part of the state that closes. As such, we will get a good idea about the state from the precincts that have closed. On the other hand, only a tiny part of Oregon will close at 10 p.m. and all of the key races will have to wait another hour. For North Dakota and Idaho, none of the races are expected to be particularly close. So those contests should be called shortly after 11.
Posted in 2020 General Election, General Election Forecast
Also tagged Idaho, Nevada, North Dakota, Utah
Comments Off on Election Night Preview — Part 4 (10 PM to 11 PM EST)
Cut Time
A political party serves two fundamental purposes.
First, people form and join political parties to advance policy. (Of course, there are disagreements on the exact priorities or the specific details of policy proposals.) In fact, one of the biggest mistakes that the Framers made was not anticipating that, once there were elections for federal offices, the groups in New Jersey that favored rural farmers over “urban” merchants would unite with similar groups in Georgia (and vice versa for the groups that favored merchants) rather than stay isolated in their own states. Simply put, if you want a single-payer health care system, you are more likely to get it by forming a large group with other supporters of that type of proposal than working on your own.
Second, the way that political parties try to advance policy is by getting their candidates elected to office. You can’t pass a single-payer system if the opponents of single-payer have the majority in Congress or control the White House. And political parties win elections by finding good candidates and raising and spending money to support those candidates. Especially in the year before the election, money tends to be spent on creating tools (like voter databases and helping state parties) that are available to all candidates that run on the party’s ticket. And at this point in time, with the exception of the last handful of state primaries, the parties have their candidates.
Posted in 2020 General Election, Money in Politics
Also tagged Alabama, Arizona, Campaign Spending, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michgan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Senate, South Carolina
Comments Off on Cut Time
2018 Mid-term Election — Rocky Mountains
While it’s not an exact East-West line, the Rocky Mountain region has seen a lot of change in recent years. While not the same in every state, the southern part of the region has trended a little more toward the Democrats while the northern part has, maybe, gotten even redder.
In Montana, we have a weird combination of races. For Senate, even with President Trump firing with both barrels due to Senator Tester shooting down Trump’s misguided cronyism at the Department of Veteran’s Affair, Senator Tester seems to have a somewhat comfortable lead in the Senate race. On the other hand, WWE-wannabe Greg Gianforte seems to be holding on (by a less comfortable margin) in the U.S. House race.
In Wyoming, the Democrats really have very little chance at picking up any of the races. A successful outcome would be holding the Republicans beneath 55% in any of the three main races.
Posted in Elections, General Election Forecast
Also tagged 2108 Mid-term elections, Arizona, Colorado, Governor, Idaho, Medicaid Expansion, Medical Marijuana, Nevada, New Mexico, redistricting, Renewable Energy, U.S. House, U.S. Senate, Utah, Wyoming
Comments Off on 2018 Mid-term Election — Rocky Mountains
Election Night 2016 — What to Look For (Part Four)
As 9:00 p.m. rolls around, enough states have been closed long enough that exit polls become less significant, and raw vote count becomes more significant. If the exit polls and early returns in the state had been clear enough, those states would have already been called. The question at this point in time is which if any of the contested states and races have been called. While enough states remain that technically nobody will have yet won the White House, or the majority in the Senate, or the majority in the House, it should be becoming clear whether it is simply a matter of waiting for the polls to close in “safe” states or if it is going to be a long night waiting for the last votes in a handful of states. While the race is not yet over, the next two hours should determine the winners.
9:00 p.m. (EST) — The remaining polls close in Michigan, Kansas, South Dakota, and Texas. Additionally, the polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. Colorado and Wisconsin are the last of the “at risk” states that are part of Secretary Clinton’s easiest path to 270. Arizona and Nebraska 2 join Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Maine 2 in the batch of electoral votes that Trump absolutely needs to get to 270.