Tag Archives: New Jersey

Election Night Preview — Part Six (Post-Midnight Eastern)

By tmess2 | Published November 3, 2024

Prior to Midnight, the polls will have closed in forty-eight states and the District of Columbia.  All that is left to close are Hawaii and Alaska.  Hawaii closes at midnight Eastern (7;00 p.m. local).  Polls close at 8:00 p.m. local time in Alaska.  For most of the state, that is midnight Eastern.  But the Aleutian Islands are in a separate time zone and will close at 1:00 a.m. Eastern.

In Hawaii, the first big chunk of returns will be the early votes, but those are not reported until all polling places have actually closed.  As such, it may be an hour or more before results are released.  The release of results will be a little bit slower than Alaska.

The biggest race out of these two states is the congressional seat for Alaska, currently held by Democrat Mary Peltola.  One factor that will delay a projection in this race is that Alaska uses ranked-choice voting.  The Republicans in Alaska have pretty well demonstrated that they do not know how to run a race with ranked choice voting.  Thus, rather than running two strong candidates and having the candidates encourage their supporters to rank the other candidate second, the Republicans have had their second candidate withdraw.  Not having two candidates attacking Representative Peltola is a strategic mistake.  But because the Republicans have cleared the field, it is unlikely that there will be many votes for the remaining candidates on the ballot.  A good rule of thumb for ranked choice voting is that a candidate who finishes in second on first preferences is unlikely to have a net gain more than 1% for every 2% of the vote that went to the eliminated candidates.  Representative Peltola received a majority of the vote in the primary, but that is now guarantee that she will get a majority of the first preference votes in the general election.  It is entirely possible that we will not know the winner until after all counts are voted and preferences are applied, but the history of ranked choice voting in Australia is that, in most races, there is a clear winner with a sufficiently large margin in first preferences that the second-placed candidate can’t realistically catch-up. Continue Reading...

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Election Night Preview — Part Two — Prime Time Hour One (8:00 to 8:59 p.m. Eastern)

By tmess2 | Published October 28, 2024

While there are some significant states that close before 8:00 p.m. Eastern, that time marks when election coverage truly kicks off.  Aside from the realities of the broadcast networks that as for two basic reasons.  First, as discussed last weekend, vote counting is slow.  Since people in line when the polls “close” can still vote, it takes some time to actually shut down a polling place (both in getting the last people processed and out and in the procedures to secure the election materials after the polling place closes).  And then the counting usually have to be transported to some central location for the local election authority.  Thus, the first hour of returns tend to be the results of early voting and absentee ballots (in those states which release those separately from the election day returns) and a handful of smaller counties.  It is only in the second and third hour of counting that you start getting the rest of the smaller counties and the first returns from the really big counties.  Second, not every state closes at 7:00 p.m., local time, and a good chunk of the states are not in the Eastern time zone.  Only two states (Indiana and Kentucky) close at 6:00 p.m. local time.   While 7:00 p.m. is one of the more popular local times to close, only nineteen states close then (and only five of those are in the Eastern time zone).  Four states (Arkansas, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia) close at 7:30 p.m. local time.    The most popular poll closing time is actually 8:00 p.m. when twenty-two jurisdictions close their polls.  You have two states (Tennessee and Nebraska) which despite being split in two time zones have opted to have all the polls close at the same real time (meaning in the eastern part of the state, the polls close at 8:00 p.m. local time while in the western part of the state, the polls close at 7:00 p.m. local time).  Lastly, two states (New York and North Dakota) close at 9:00 p.m. local time.

So when 8:00 p.m. Eastern time rolls around, you have polls closing in the ten jurisdictions wholly in the Eastern time zone that close at 8:00 local time.  You also have the polls in the western part of Florda closing at what is 7:00 p.m. local time in that part of Florida to finish out Florida.  You have the polls closing at 8:00 p.m. local time in the part of Michigan in the Eastern time zone (all but the Western part of the Upper Peninsula), You have the polls closing simultaneously at either 8:00 p.m. local time or 7:00 p.m. local time in Tennessee.  You have all of the polls closing at 7:00 p.m. local time in Alabama, Illinois, Mississippi, Missouri, and Oklahoma.  And you have polls closing at 7:00 p.m. local time in the eastern parts of Kansas, South Dakota, and Texas.  Of those last three states, only South Dakota is roughly evenly divided geographically between Central and Mountain time and only tiny slivers of Kansas and Texas are in the Mountain time zone.  In short, you go from approximately ten jurisdictions being closed, to the majority of almost thirty jurisdictions being closed.  For all intents and purposes, election night starts at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

As the hour starts, we should have already had some expected projections from the early states.  And the early news is more likely to be bad news than good news, but it is expected bad news that should not cause people to panic.  Barring a miracle, by 8:00 p.m. Eastern, the networks and the AP will have projected Donald Trump the winner in Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and West Virginia.  They will also have projected the Republicans as winning two Senate seats (Indiana and West Virginia) to one for the Democrats (Vermont) for a gain of one although it is possible that the Virginia Senate seat might also be projected before 8:00 p.m.  And most of the early House seats projected will be Republican with a couple of seats gained in North Carolina. Continue Reading...

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The Midterms — Preview (Part 2)

By tmess2 | Published October 30, 2022

The first states with polls to close are mostly in the Eastern Time Zone.  In the early states, we have two governor’s races (Georgia and Florida), four Senate races (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio), and seven House seats (1 in North Carolina, 3 in Ohio, and 3 in Virginia) that could be close.  There are also several seats that are likely to flip solely because of the new maps (4 flipping red in Florida, 1 flipping red in Georgia, and 2 flipping blue in North Carolina).

But the big closing time is 7 p.m. Central ST.  The remaining polls will close in Florida, and most of the polls will close in Kansas, Michigan, South Dakota, and Texas.  And all of the polls will close in Alabama (except for a very small portion that closed an hour earlier), Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Tennessee.  In short, when added to the states that close before 7 p.m., the polls will be closed in roughly half of the country by 7:01 p.m. (Of course, polls closed merely means that individuals need to be in line to vote at 7 p.m.  Because there are typically people in line to vote, voting might actually continue in some urban precincts for a very long time after 7 p.m. which will delay counting in those areas.)

Starting with Alabama, there are no races that are likely to be close at the state or federal level.  If the Supreme Court follows the Voting Rights Act, Democrats will probably pick up an additional seat in 2024, but the current maps which a district court correctly held violated the Voting Rights Act is in place for the 2022 election, and the 6-1 Republican advantage will remain in place for the next Congress.  There are a lot of propositions on the ballot in Alabama, the most significant of which requires changes to election law to be adopted at least six months prior to a general election. Continue Reading...

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Virginia and New Jersey — Gaffes and What’s Next

By tmess2 | Published November 6, 2021

It is a quadrennial tradition.  The party in the White House has poor results in the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, and the pundits predict doom and gloom in the mid-term elections.  (Of course, then the party in the White House has losses in the House and maybe losses in the Senate and the pundits say “see we told you so.”  So what lessons should we take from this week’s results.

First, Terry McAuliffe did make a gaffe.  Using the classic definition of a gaffe, he told the truth that nobody wants to hear.  In his case, in response to questions about education, he noted that parents do not get to dictate to the schools what the schools teach.  This statement is partially true.   But as with most sound bites, explaining what was meant takes a lot of time and does not overcome the gut reaction to the original statement.

What is absolutely true is that public schools are not a system of private tutors.  Teachers are responsible for teaching a class of students.    For the system to work, Johnny has to be using the same books and Kathy.  So Johnny’s parents do not get to decide the materials that Johnny has to read for the course. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — New Jersey

By tmess2 | Published June 26, 2021

In the Garden State, redistricting is done by a bipartisan commission.  If the commission fails to pass a plan, it then falls to the courts.  As such, the current map is the likely starting point for any new map.

Currently, the Democrats hold ten of the twelve seats, but the map actually creates six Democratic districts, one Republican district, and five toss-up districts.  At the present time, the overpopulated part of the state is the three districts that contain Newark and the suburbs of New York
City (the Eighth District, the Ninth District, and the Tenth District).  the other district that is significantly overpopulated is the Twelfth District in the western part of the state around Princeton.  All four of these districts are solidly Democratic.  The two most underpopulated parts of the state are the two districts in the southern part of the state — the First (the southwest part of the state around Camden) and the Second (the rest of the south New Jersey).  Given the population pattern in the state, all of the lines in the state are going to shift toward New York City.

As in other urbanized states, the Voting Rights Act will be some consideration.  There are five minority-majority districts (Sixth, Eight, Ninth, Tenth, and Twelfth) with Hispanics being the largest group in two districts (the Eight — in which they are the majority — and the Ninth) and African Americans being a majority in one district (the Tenth). Continue Reading...

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Redistricting 2021 — The Numbers

By tmess2 | Published May 1, 2021

On Monday, four days ahead of its latest target date and almost four months behind the statutory date, the Census Bureau released the national and state-level results from the Census including the apportionment numbers that determine how many representatives each get.  As can be expected, there are multiple different tables summarizing the data in different ways for us number geeks.

The bottom line table shows the apportionment population (both those living in the state and those residing overseas — like military personnel — who call that state home), the number of representatives that each state is getting, and the change in representation.   We will get back to the change in a minute, but the big level number is that the apportionment population is slightly over 331 million.  As such, the average size (mean) of each congressional district is just under 761 thousand.  Alaska, Vermont, and Wyoming have fewer people than the average congressional district.  While the apportionment formula does not work for calculating the population needed for the first representative, even Wyoming has enough population to be entitled to three-quarters of a representative.

If, D.C. and Puerto Rico were states, Puerto Rico would be just ahead of Utah (which has four representatives) and just behind Connecticut (which has five representatives) and D.C. would be between Vermont and Alaska.  Given that Puerto Rico is only slightly larger than Utah (which was not close to getting a fifth representative and far enough behind Connecticut, Puerto Rico would be due for four representatives.  If  both were states, the five states that would lose a representative would have been Oregon, Colorado, and Montana (all of which gained a seat), California (which lost a seat), and Minnesota (which barely avoided losing a seat).  The chart of priority values that allows us to consider the impact of adding Puerto Rico and D.C. also shows that Minnesota barely held onto its last seat and New York barely lost its seat.  Apparently, given the formula, Minnesota would have lost that seat if it had 24 fewer people, and New York would have kept its seat if it had 89 more people.  (The disparity in numbers is caused by the fact that the two states have different number of seats. Continue Reading...

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Election Night Preview — Part 2 (8 PM to 9 PM EST)

By tmess2 | Published October 28, 2020

As noted in the previous post, by 8 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, we should have a significant amount of precincts being reported in the two earliest states (Kentucky and Indiana) and should be starting to get some counties reporting votes in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, and Vermont.  During this hour, the counts in those states should be increasing.  By 9 p.m., we should be seeing either some projection in those states or an indication that the states are too close too call.  We may also be getting an indication in some of those states of how many absentee votes might remain to be counted (which could determine whether it will be possible to make any projection in those states on election night).

While it would be nice if we could get calls in a state like Virginia early in this hour, the bigger question as the hour goes will be the types of swings that we are seeing in these states.   Virginia in 2016 was a leading indicator as we were just not getting strong results compared to 2012.  So as this hour goes along and the networks start looking at the maps of the state, the key thing to pay attention to is how the numbers are comparing to 2016.  Even if the networks aren’t comfortable in calling a state yet, if the results are showing that Trump is underperforming in red parts of a state (i.e. rural counties) and Biden is overperforming in the suburbs, then that is a good sign for the rest of the evening as Trump only one by the slimmest of margins in 2016 and any erosion in his support could prove fatal.

This hour has the most states close.  You have partial closures in Florida (the rest of the state closed an hour earlier), Kansas, Michigan, South Dakota, and Texas.  While a significant part of South Dakota will close an hour later, the polls close for most of the population in Kansas, Michigan, and Texas at 8 p.m. Eastern.  In addition to these states, polls for the entire state close at 8 p.m. Eastern in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Illinois, Maine, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Tennessee. Continue Reading...

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Louisiana Elections

By tmess2 | Published October 13, 2019

The off-year general elections kicked off yesterday with the “jungle primary” in Louisiana.  Louisiana’s jungle primary is similar to, but not quite the same as, the “top two” primaries that California and Washington use.  Like the top two primary, a jungle primary is “semi-partisan.”  By semi-partisan, I mean that, like a non-partisan election, all candidates run in the same election regardless of party but, unlike the typical non-partisan election, candidates are identified by their designated party.  Thus, you could have three Democrats, four Republicans, a Libertarian, a Green, and an independent on the ballot.  A jungle primary differs from a top two primary in that a jungle primary is actually a general election with the possibility of a run-off rather than a true primary.  In other words, in a true top two primary, the top two candidates advance to the general election even if one of the candidates gets a majority of the vote in the primary.  In a jungle primary, if one candidate gets a majority of the vote, that candidate is elected.

Thanks, in part, to the scandals surrounding former Senator David Vitter, Louisiana has a Democratic governor.  And Governor Edwards has done a decent job of threading the needle in a red state.  (Of course, threading the needle in a red state means conceding certain issues that you can’t win in order to win on some issues even though such concessions may aggravate those who believe in purity and attack any person who deviates as a DINO.)  Heading into yesterday’s election, the two questions was whether Governor Edwards could reach 50% and which Republican would take second (a more traditional Republican legislator or a self-funding Trumpish candidate).  With the unofficial results in, Governor Edwards fell just short of 50% getting 47% of he vote, and Eddie Risponse (the self-funding candidate) eked out second place by a 27% to 24% margin.  So there will be a run-off for governor in mid-November.  The real issue for the run-off is how much the national parties will put into the race.  For Risponse to win, he needs to absolutely unify those who voted for the three Republican candidates (the third Republican got less than one percent of the vote).  While the Republicans would like to win this race given how red Louisiana is, it will have little impact going forward.  After the first round of voting, the Republicans are guaranteed to win at least 26 of the state senate races (out of 39) and at least 63 of the 105 state house races.  And, even if Democrats can get enough seats in the state house to block a veto override, there is very little chance that there will be any significant impact on congressional district lines in 2021 given the geography of Louisiana and the Voting Rights Act.

It would probably benefit the Democrats if the Republicans did put money into Louisiana.  There are two other governor’s races in November — Kentucky and Mississippi.  While both states are red, the Democrats do have chances in both.  Mississippi may be a step too far given Mississippi’s Jim Crow era law that requires a candidate to win not only the state-wide popular vote but also win the popular vote in the majority of the state house districts.  So even if the Democrat manages to win the popular vote, the election would probably go to the state legislature barring a landslide win.  In both states, it is unlikely that Democrats will win the state legislatures and, in any case, it is hard seeing how the congressional district lines in either state could be substantially altered in a way that would create a significant chance of electing a second Democrat to congress in either state (although in a wave year, there is the possibility of that happening in Kentucky) as the least Republican district currently held by Republicans in both states is more Republican than the sole Democratic district is Democrat.  In other words, there are not enough extra Democrats in the Democratic district to swing a single Republican seats even if the two districts adjoined. Continue Reading...

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2018 Midterm Election Preview-Mid-Atlantic

By tmess2 | Published October 23, 2018

If the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives, the Mid-Atlantic region (especially New Jersey and Pennsylvania) will play a significant role.  Just two years ago, the Republicans had thirteen of the eighteen House seats in Pennsylvania and has six of the twelve House seats in New Jersey.   After picking up one House seat in New Jersey in 2016 and one House seat in Pennsylvania in a special election earlier this year, Democrats are posed for major gains in this year’s election.  The other states are a little less likely to see major changes.

Starting up north in New York, New York has a race for Governor, a race for Senator, and 27 House races.  Democrats should easily win the state-wide races and keep their current seats.  Picking up Republican seats, however, will not be easy.  It looks like the Democrats should gain at least one seats, but there is a real chance at gaining as much as five seats.  The most interesting race will be New York’s Twenty-seventh District where Republican crook Chris Collins is standing for re-election.  Collins is on the ballot mostly because New York law did not allow the Republicans to replace him.  The race may come down to how many Republicans vote for the Reform Party candidate.

New Jersey is where things can flip dramatically.  In barely two years, the Congressional delegation could go from evenly divided to 11 Democrats and 1 Republican.  Senator Menendez is in potential trouble given his recent scandals.  He has an opponent who has just as many issues but also a very big wallet. Continue Reading...

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Fall Elections

By tmess2 | Published October 22, 2017

In most of the world, the practice is to limit the number of races being contested on any given election day.  Thus, regional elections are held on a separate day from national elections.  In the U.S., however, most states opt to hold state elections on the same day as national elections.  Thus, in most states, the election for governor either falls on the same day as the mid-term election or on the same day as the presidential election.  In a small number of states, however, the election for governor occurs in an odd-year.

Two states — Virginia and New Jersey — hold the election in the year after the presidential election.  (Three states — Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi — hold the elections in the year before the presidential election.)  Both New Jersey and Virginia have a tendency — not absolute, but a tendency — to elect a governor from the party not in the White House.  In New Jersey, the last time that the party in the White House won the governor’s race was 1985.  In Virginia, while the party in the White House won in 2013, the last previous time that the party in the White House won was 1973.  There are a lot of reasons for these results — including. similar to the problem that the party in the White House faces in mid-term elections, the simple fact that governing is much harder than running for office, so supporters of the party in power tend to be disappointed with the actual fruits of their victory while those out of power tend to be angry and motivated.

As things currently stand, things are looking very good for the Democratic candidates in New Jersey.  Aside from New Jersey’s normal Democratic lean and the tendency for the party not in the White House to win, the Republicans nominated the current Lieutenant Governor, making it hard to separate the current Republican ticket from the corruption of the current administration of term-limited governor Chris Christie.  The Democratic candidate, Ambassador Phil Murphy, leads by double digits in every poll this fall.  While some of the polls show enough undecided voters to leave a theoretical opening for the Republican candidate, the race in New Jersey is not particularly close. Continue Reading...

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