Tag Archives: North Dakota

Election Night Preview — Part Four — Prime Time Hour Three (10:00 to 10:59 P.M. Eastern)

After the heavy numbers of the previous two hours of prime time, the final hour of prime time represents a slight slowing of polls closing.  Of course, that will be made up for as several of the close states will either be projected or turn into all night counts.

There are three partial closings and three full closings this hour.  On the partial closing, we have the second of two 9:00 p.m. local time closings with the eastern (Central Time Zone) part of North Dakota.  You also have all but the panhandle of Idaho closing at 8:00 p.m. local time (Mountain Time Zone).  For both of these states, the part closing represents the majority of the state.  The last partial closing is the one exception to the general trend.  Oregon is the one start in which the majority of the state is in the western part of the state.  So this post will only cover the partial closing in Idaho and North Dakota with Oregon in the next post.  The three full closings are Montana and Utah at 8:00 p.m. local time and Nevada at 7:00 p.m. local time.

Idaho, like Wyoming in the previous post, is solidly red.  If Democrats are competitive at either the presidential level or for either of the congressional seats, then it will have been a very good night for Democrats.   The one contest of interest is a ballot proposition seeking to go to a top four primary with ranked choice voting.   While Idaho is not likely to turn blue anytime soon, a top four primary with ranked choice voting might mean more moderate Republicans representing Idaho in the future. Continue Reading...

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Late Spring Primaries — June 11 and June 18.

Yesterday marked the last presidential primary contests (in Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands).  While some states have a unified primary (presidential and state/congressional), others do not.  while a significant number of the spring state/congressional primaries are part of a unified primary, there are some states that have a separate spring state/congressional primary.  Ten states are having state or congressional primaries over the next three weeks.  After June 25, there will be a month-break with the rest of the primaries taking place in August and September.    Additionally, there will be a special election in Ohio.  A big theme of these primaries will be what happens to some Republican agents of chaos.

Starting with the elections on June 11, first up is Maine.  Both congressional districts are currently held by Democrats.  In both districts, there is a Republican primary.  The first district leans Democratic and the second district leans Republican.   Thus, it is not a surprise that there is a little more money in the Republican primary in the second district.  Both of the Republican candidates in the second district are state representatives.

Unlike Maine, things are a little more chaotic in Nevada.  The Republicans have ten candidates running for U.S. Senate for the right to challenge Jacky Rosen.  The top two fundraiser on the Republican side are Sam Brown (the preferred candidate of the national party) and Jeff Gunter who has gotten significant support from the Freedom Caucus.  Depending on which poll you trust, either Sam Brown has a comfortable lead or it is a dead heat.  At the house level, all three of the Democratic seats are lean Democratic seats, and you have multiple candidates running for the Republican nomination in all three (three in the fourth district, six in the first district, and seven in the third district). Continue Reading...

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Super Tuesday Week

Tuesday is Super Tuesday — the first Tuesday of the primary cycle in which any state can hold a primary contest.  As most states use state-run primaries, there will be a large number of states on Tuesday.

But, before Super Tuesday, several states that are using party-run contests will be holding Republican contests as the “window” for the Republicans opened yesterday.  (The “window” for Democrats opens on Tuesday.)  As discussed last week, one of the contests today is the second half of the Republican’s Michigan two-step with the Republican state convention which will be allocating the “district” level delegates.  In addition to Michigan, today will see events in Missouri and Idaho.

The Missouri Republican rules are somewhat ambiguous.  It looks like they are doing a traditional caucus with a 15% threshold and an unspecified winner-take-all kicker at local option.  But rather than allocating delegates based on today’s vote (which is what the national rules appear to require), they are merely binding the delegates chosen today to vote the same preference at the district conventions (which should effectively have the same result).  Missouri is using a caucus because our current Secretary of State repeatedly lied and claimed that the state-run primary was nonbinding (when the rules of both party made the primary binding) and a repeal of the primary was slipped into an omnibus election bill which passed despite the unanimous opposition of Democratic legislature).  The Democrats will be holding a party-run primary in three weeks with a mail-in option. Continue Reading...

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The Midterms-Preview (Part 4)

By 9 p.m. Central ST, we will be getting some results from the early states which will give us some idea of how the night is going with a strong emphasis on the some.  As noted in Part 1 of this series, every state treats the counting of mail-in votes.  In some states, like Missouri and Texas, mail-in votes are likely to be the first results reported.  In other states, like Michigan, those votes are likely to reported after the election day results.  And for election day results, precinct sizes (more importantly the number of voters per election judge) and other factors have historically resulted in longer lines at closing time in urban area.  When combined with the number of precincts in urban areas, in early states, rural areas are likely to report a greater share of their results in the first couple of hours.  Both of these factors distort the conclusiveness of early vote counts (which is why the best analysts start looking at what vote is still outstanding — both where that vote is and the total number of votes — in forecasting whether it is possible to call the race).    But by this time of the evening, there is some hint at the level of turnout in the areas that tend to vote Democratic and the areas that vote Republican and which way swing areas are swinging.

In turn, this information gives us some idea of the accuracy of pre-election polls.   In viewing pre-election polls, there are three things to remember.  First, in viewing them, you should focus on two things — margins and the size of the “undecided” voters.  In every poll, there will be some undecided voters (and, because voters tend not to want to waste votes, the supporters of third-party candidates should be treated as undecided as a significant share of them will move to one of the two major candidates by election day).  Because undecided voters will not split 50-50, a large pool of undecided voters makes the margin less reliable.  An eight percent lead with ten percent undecided is more likely to hold than a twelve percent lead with twenty percent undecided.  On the other hand, it is likely that both candidates will pick up some undecideds.  So both candidates are likely to end up with something higher than their last poll number.  Second, in looking at the margin, every poll has a margin of error (typically between three percent and four percent).  That margin of error applies to each candidate.   Which means, in theory, that even a well-constructed poll can be off on the margin by six or seven percent..  Part of the error is that every pollster has their model on who is likely to vote and how to weight responders to overcome response bias.  Some years the actual pool of voters is bluer than the model shows and in other years the actual pool of voters is redder than the model shows.  Finally, a poll is a snapshot in time.  Events occurring after the poll is taken will move a small percentage of voters (both undecided voters and voters who were tentatively supporting a candidate).  In short, it is highly probable that the polls will be off by some margin.  And while the direction and size of the error will not be uniform nationally, the early returns can give an idea of the direction and size of the error.

As things stand four days out, the polls seem to be indicating a red ripple which will switch a narrow Democratic majority in the House to a narrow Republican majority in the House.  The Senate could go either way and the hold of state offices could swing either way as well. Continue Reading...

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Election Night Preview — Part 4 (10 PM to 11 PM EST)

It is very highly unlikely that we will have a projected winner when the clock strikes 10 on the east coast.  Mathematically, it’s possible as by 10:01 p.m. polls will officially be closed in states with 450 electoral votes.  But, practically speaking, it would take all of the toss-up states that have closed before then to have enough votes counted that the networks felt comfortable projecting them, and they would all have to go the same way.  Even in years like 2008, enough of the Democratic vote is in states in which polls close at 10 or 11 p.m. EST, that it would take flipping states like Texas and Georgia to have a shot at reaching 270 before 11 p.m.

Looking at 2016, the first battleground state — Ohio — was called at 10:36 p.m.  Depending on how things play out with mail-in ballots and early voting, some of the battleground states might get called faster, but others are likely to be called much later.

In this hour, we will have partial closures in Idaho, North Dakota, and Oregon.  In North Dakota and Idaho, the majority of the population is in the part of the state that closes.  As such, we will get a good idea about the state from the precincts that have closed.  On the other hand, only a tiny part of Oregon will close at 10 p.m. and all of the key races will have to wait another hour.   For North Dakota and Idaho, none of the races are expected to be particularly close.  So those contests should be called shortly after 11. Continue Reading...

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2020 Delegate Math — March 10

There is just a little bit of room between Super Tuesday and March 10 for everyone to catch their breath.  Over the past seven days, over half of the candidates have dropped out, and we are left with three candidates (Joe Biden, Tulsi Gabbard, and Bernie Sanders.)

While we are down to three candidates, one word of warning is appropriate.  As we saw on Super Tuesday, some states have no excuse early voting or mail-in ballots.  On Super Tuesday, we saw some significant differences between the early vote count and the “election day” count.  Simply put, people who voted early may have voted for a candidate who was no longer actively running.  It is unclear if any of these candidates will ultimately win a delegate, but some of these candidates did get a significant number of votes in some states.  The extra seven days should lessen this effect, but there could be — depending on the state — a significant number of voters who voted before February 28th, and some of these voters went with one of the five candidates who are no longer running.

There are seven contests which will conclude on March 10.  (I use the term conclude because one of them — Democrats Abroad — is a party-run primary in which the polls are open for almost one week and others allow early voting.)  Besides Democrats Abroad, the other six contests are Idaho, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, North Dakota, and Washington.  While nominally styled as a caucus, North Dakota is a party-run primary.  Idaho, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, and Washington are state-run primaries.  (Washington like California relies heavily on mail-in ballots which can cause a delay in getting final results.)  Under the rules of the Democratic Party, all of these contests are binding and delegates will be allocated based on the votes cast for each candidate. Continue Reading...

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Delegate Selection Rules — North Dakota

In 2016, fourteen states and four territories used a caucus-based system to allocate pledged delegates to the candidates for president.  This post is the third in a series on how the states that are choosing to retain a caucus-based system are proposing to respond to the DNC’s 2020 Delegate Selection Rules, particularly Rule 2.K, which have added emphasis to prior language encouraging state parties to take steps to make it easier for people who are unable to attend their local caucus meeting to participate and requiring that delegate allocation be based on the preferences in the initial round of caucuses (unlike the old rules which allowed the allocation to be made based on the preferences at the meeting that actually selected the delegates).  The new rules also include a preference for a state-run primary.  Of the fourteen states that had caucuses in 2016, four (Colorado, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Idaho) have already opted to switch to a state-run primary for 2020.   In addition, at least two other states have primary bills either awaiting the Governor’s signature (Utah) or moving in the legislature (Maine — which has some weird features that may warrant a post if it passes and the Maine Democratic Party opts in).   The first two posts covered Iowa which is sticking with a caucus system and Washington which put forward two plans (one primary-based and one caucus-based) with a final decision to come next month.  That leaves six (or eight if you include Utah and Maine) states (and the four territories) to propose plans (all of which are supposed to be posted for public comment more than thirty days before approval by the state party with the state party supposed to submit the state party-approved plan to the Rules and By-laws Committee of the Democratic National Committee by May 3).

This week’s post covers the recent draft plan issued by North Dakota’s Democratic-NPL Party.  In 2016, North Dakota had a caucus meeting at the legislative district-level and the allocation of state convention delegates from those meetings was used to allocate the national convention delegates.  Additionally, there was no provision for “absentee” votes by those who could not attend the legislative district meeting.

Reflecting the DNC’s desire to improve participation in the caucus state, North Dakota is switching from caucus meetings to what is sometimes called a “firehouse” or party-run primary as its first step.  In a traditional caucus system, voters must be present at the time scheduled for the start of the caucus with the vote taking place during the caucus.  In a firehouse primary/caucus, the party opens polling places and voters can show up at any time during the voting period.  In North Dakota, the proposal is to have local voting places which will be open for eight hours (from 11 a. m. to 7 p.m. on March 10).  In addition, North Dakota will allow mail-in absentee voting.  Continue Reading...

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2018 Mid-Term Election Preview — Great Plains

Like the South (and the northern part of the Rocky Mountain region), this area of the country has been trending Republican, but there are some opportunities for Democratic gains.

Minnesota might be the weirdest state in the country this year.  Democrats are in good shape to hold both U.S. Senate seats that are on the ballot and will probably also win the race for Governor to keep that seat.  Four of the House seats in Minnesota could change hands — two currently held by the Democrats and two currently held by the Republicans.  A significant part of the Second and Third Districts contain the suburbs of the Twin Cities, and Democrats could pick up both seats over Republican incumbents.  The First and Eighth Districts are open seats as the Democratic incumbents tried to run for state office.  Both are mostly rural districts with the Eighth also featuring some declining industry making them good targets for Republican wins.  Thus, in nine days, Minnesota could be anything from 7-1 in favor of the Democrats to 5-3 in favor of the Republicans.

In Iowa, all of the districts except the Fourth District (Western Iowa) are designed to be swing districts.  In good years for the Republicans, those seats go Republican.  In good years for the Democrats, those seats go Democratic.  Right now Republicans have a 3-1 edge, but Democrats are favored to take both the First and Third.  Democrats also are favored to win the race for Governor.

Missouri features some of the weirdest shaped congressional districts in the county (the dead lizard Fifth District and the claw shapes of the Third and Fourth Districts).  The two closest seats are the D+7 Fifth District and the R+8 Second District.  After Republicans drew these lines in 2011, Democrats hoped that, by 2018 or 2020, the Second District might become close enough to be winnable.  Maybe if Ann Wagner had run for the Senate, the Democrats might have been favored to win an open seat, but she didn’t.  With Representative Wagner running for re-election, Democrats still have an outside chance at winning the district, but it will take strong turnout in the Democratic parts of St. Louis County.  While Representative Wagner deciding to stick in the House is helping the Republicans keep their 6-2 majority in House seats, it is almost certainly hurting them in the Senate race as Attorney General Josh Hawley has proven to be an underwhelming candidate.  To make up for his deficiencies, Republican Super PACS have been pouring money into the State for the past twenty months.  If I hear one more ad from Mitch McConnell’s PAC claiming to know what Missouri values are and alleging that Claire is part of the Republican establishment, I will literally scream.  Democratic groups have done a decent job of emphasizing AG Hawley’s actions undermining pre-existing condition coverage at the same time that he says he is for requiring insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions.  At the present time, the best bet is for the status quo.  Because St. Louis County is a key part of the state, however, there is some linkage between the Senate race and the House race.  If Representative Wagner wins by double digits, the Republicans could pick up the Senate seat.  If Representative Wagner loses, Clair should win the Senate seat by a comfortable margin.

Oklahoma is a very red state.  Even in wave election year, Democrats tend to have slim chances at best.  At R+10, the Fifth District is the closest in the state, and Democrats have an outside chance of picking it up.  The Governor’s race is also winnable, but it is definitely a long shot.

There are three political parties in Kansas — the Democrats, traditional moderate and conservative Republicans, and far right Republicans.  When the Republican Party goes off the rails, Democrats can win races in Kansas.  In 2011, Republicans opted to “crack” the Democratic regions of the state (the state capital, the University of Kansas, and the Kansas City suburbs) between the Second and Third Districts.  While that leaves all four districts favoring Republicans, it does give the Democrats a chance to win both districts in Democratic years.  Right now, it seems like the Democrats will win in the Third District and the Second District is too close to call.  The race in the Second District might depend on how many students at the University of Kansas have registered to vote at college and how many are voting absentee back home.  The race for Governor may come down to how well the Independent candidate does and whom he takes votes from.  Right now, the polls are showing a dead heat between Spawn of Satan Kris Kobach and Democrat Laura Kelly, but the independent Greg Orman is polling at around 10%.   Third party candidates who are trailing by a significant amount tend to have some fall off as the general election approaches.  Since Orman is probably getting a lot of his support from Republicans who hate Kobach but would rather not vote for a Democrat, the question is whether these voters will hold their noses and vote for Kobach or find their way to vote for a Democrat.

Nebraska has races for Governor and Senate, but the incumbent Republicans look pretty safe.  As always, the Democrats have decent chances in the Second District (Omaha area).  In 2011, the Republicans drew the lines to make this district slightly more favorable to them,    There haven’t been a lot of polls in this district, but it looks like the Republicans are slightly ahead.  This is one of the districts where primary voters (opting for a slightly less well-known and more progressive candidate) may have made the task just a little too hard for the blue team.

South Dakota has races for Governor and its single Congressional seat.  The Democrats have an outside shot at winning the race for governor and taking that position away from the Republicans.  The House seat is probably out of reach.

In North Dakota, the big race is the U.S. Senate seat.  Senator Heidi Heitkamp is a perfect example of the problem facing Democrats in red states.  While she has not been 100% reliable for Democrats in the Senate, she has probably voted the party line more often that is safe for a candidate in such a state.  Republicans are doing their best to stack the deck against her with voting rules designed to make it difficult for Native Americans to vote (their tribal IDs do not meet the new requirements).  If there is a strong Native vote, Senator Heitkamp might barely survive.  If tribal turnout is depressed, the Republicans could take this seat.  The single House seat seems likely to stay Republican.

On the referendum side, Missouri has a slew of issues on the ballot.  There is an ethics reform proposal that includes limits on campaign financing and new rules for redistricting designed to prevent gerrymandering in state legislative races.  There is also a proposal to increase the state minimum wage over a period of years to $12.  There are three competing “medical” marijuana proposals.  In Nebraska, there is a proposal for Medicaid expansion.  North Dakota has an ethics reform package and a “recreational” marijuana proposal.  South Dakota has an ethics reform package and a series of proposals trying to make it harder for voters to propose and approve constitutional amendments (not surprisingly, those restrictions were proposed by the state legislature).

In short, progressive groups have managed to get some referendums on the ballot which should help Democrats win some close races, but there are not that many winnable races.  Democrats have good chances to win six House races, and have outside shots at two others.  On the other hand, Republicans have decent chances at winning two House seats.  Additionally, Republicans are favored to gain one U.S. Senate seat and could win a second.  If Democrats are to have any shot at winning control of the Senate, they need to hold at least one seat in this region.  If the Democrats can have a net gain of five or more House seats in this region, the Democrats should gain control of the House.  If the net gain is only one, the chances of gaining control of the House will shrink substantially.

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Photo ID and the Courts

Vote!In recent years, the Supreme Court has had its version of an “election rule.”  The essence of this rule is that the Supreme Court does not like last second changes to the election process.  Regardless of whether the change comes from state election authorities changing the state’s procedure or a court decision resolving a challenge to those procedures, the Supreme Court prefers to “freeze” the status quo far enough in advance of the election so that voters know the rules and can take steps to comply with those rules.  Perhaps in response to this implied vague deadline (a little less implied in the case of Texas where the Supreme Court indicated that they would consider intervening in there was not a court decision by the end of July), the last several weeks of have seen court decisions in multiple cases involving multiple states seeking to impose a requirement that voters present photographic ID to vote in-person.

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